Intrinsic value of Computer Sciences - CSC

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$69.01

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$69.01

 
Intrinsic value

$1.37

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.46
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,106
  7,248
  7,415
  7,605
  7,819
  8,056
  8,316
  8,600
  8,906
  9,237
  9,591
  9,970
  10,375
  10,806
  11,264
  11,750
  12,264
  12,810
  13,386
  13,995
  14,638
  15,316
  16,032
  16,786
  17,581
  18,418
  19,299
  20,227
  21,203
  22,230
  23,310
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,753
  7,928
  8,129
  8,354
  8,603
  8,877
  9,175
  9,497
  9,845
  10,218
  10,489
  10,915
  11,368
  11,850
  12,361
  12,903
  13,476
  14,082
  14,723
  15,400
  16,113
  16,866
  17,660
  18,496
  19,376
  20,303
  21,279
  22,306
  23,386
  24,522
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,011
  7,753
  7,928
  8,129
  8,354
  8,603
  8,877
  9,175
  9,497
  9,845
  10,218
  10,489
  10,915
  11,368
  11,850
  12,361
  12,903
  13,476
  14,082
  14,723
  15,400
  16,113
  16,866
  17,660
  18,496
  19,376
  20,303
  21,279
  22,306
  23,386
  24,522
Operating income, $m
  95
  -505
  -513
  -523
  -535
  -547
  -560
  -575
  -591
  -608
  -627
  -519
  -540
  -562
  -586
  -611
  -638
  -666
  -696
  -728
  -762
  -797
  -834
  -873
  -915
  -958
  -1,004
  -1,052
  -1,103
  -1,157
  -1,213
EBITDA, $m
  862
  53
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
Interest expense (income), $m
  124
  93
  98
  103
  110
  117
  125
  134
  143
  154
  165
  177
  190
  203
  218
  233
  250
  267
  286
  305
  326
  347
  370
  394
  420
  447
  475
  505
  536
  569
  604
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  -598
  -611
  -627
  -644
  -664
  -685
  -709
  -734
  -762
  -792
  -696
  -729
  -766
  -804
  -845
  -888
  -934
  -982
  -1,033
  -1,087
  -1,144
  -1,204
  -1,268
  -1,335
  -1,405
  -1,479
  -1,557
  -1,639
  -1,726
  -1,817
Tax expense, $m
  -62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  251
  -598
  -611
  -627
  -644
  -664
  -685
  -709
  -734
  -762
  -792
  -696
  -729
  -766
  -804
  -845
  -888
  -934
  -982
  -1,033
  -1,087
  -1,144
  -1,204
  -1,268
  -1,335
  -1,405
  -1,479
  -1,557
  -1,639
  -1,726
  -1,817

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,178
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,736
  6,686
  6,840
  7,016
  7,213
  7,432
  7,672
  7,933
  8,216
  8,521
  8,848
  9,198
  9,571
  9,968
  10,391
  10,839
  11,314
  11,817
  12,349
  12,910
  13,504
  14,130
  14,790
  15,485
  16,219
  16,991
  17,804
  18,659
  19,560
  20,507
  21,503
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,558
  6,686
  6,840
  7,016
  7,213
  7,432
  7,672
  7,933
  8,216
  8,521
  8,848
  9,198
  9,571
  9,968
  10,391
  10,839
  11,314
  11,817
  12,349
  12,910
  13,504
  14,130
  14,790
  15,485
  16,219
  16,991
  17,804
  18,659
  19,560
  20,507
  21,503
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
  1.084
Average production assets, $m
  2,113
  2,153
  2,202
  2,259
  2,322
  2,393
  2,470
  2,554
  2,645
  2,743
  2,849
  2,961
  3,081
  3,209
  3,345
  3,490
  3,643
  3,804
  3,976
  4,156
  4,347
  4,549
  4,762
  4,986
  5,222
  5,470
  5,732
  6,007
  6,297
  6,602
  6,923
Working capital, $m
  804
  341
  348
  357
  368
  379
  391
  404
  419
  434
  451
  469
  488
  508
  529
  552
  576
  602
  629
  658
  688
  720
  754
  789
  826
  866
  907
  951
  997
  1,045
  1,096
Total debt, $m
  2,644
  2,035
  2,152
  2,286
  2,437
  2,604
  2,787
  2,986
  3,202
  3,434
  3,684
  3,951
  4,236
  4,539
  4,861
  5,203
  5,566
  5,949
  6,355
  6,784
  7,236
  7,714
  8,218
  8,748
  9,308
  9,897
  10,517
  11,170
  11,857
  12,580
  13,340
Total liabilities, $m
  5,711
  5,102
  5,219
  5,353
  5,504
  5,671
  5,854
  6,053
  6,269
  6,501
  6,751
  7,018
  7,303
  7,606
  7,928
  8,270
  8,633
  9,016
  9,422
  9,851
  10,303
  10,781
  11,285
  11,815
  12,375
  12,964
  13,584
  14,237
  14,924
  15,647
  16,407
Total equity, $m
  2,025
  1,585
  1,621
  1,663
  1,710
  1,761
  1,818
  1,880
  1,947
  2,019
  2,097
  2,180
  2,268
  2,363
  2,463
  2,569
  2,681
  2,801
  2,927
  3,060
  3,200
  3,349
  3,505
  3,670
  3,844
  4,027
  4,219
  4,422
  4,636
  4,860
  5,096
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,736
  6,687
  6,840
  7,016
  7,214
  7,432
  7,672
  7,933
  8,216
  8,520
  8,848
  9,198
  9,571
  9,969
  10,391
  10,839
  11,314
  11,817
  12,349
  12,911
  13,503
  14,130
  14,790
  15,485
  16,219
  16,991
  17,803
  18,659
  19,560
  20,507
  21,503
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.306
  1.280
  1.330
  1.370
  1.430
  1.480
  1.530
  1.590
  1.640
  1.700
  1.760
  1.810
  1.870
  1.920
  1.970
  2.030
  2.080
  2.120
  2.170
  2.220
  2.260
  2.300
  2.340
  2.380
  2.420
  2.460
  2.490
  2.530
  2.560
  2.590
  2.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.129
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  251
  -598
  -611
  -627
  -644
  -664
  -685
  -709
  -734
  -762
  -792
  -696
  -729
  -766
  -804
  -845
  -888
  -934
  -982
  -1,033
  -1,087
  -1,144
  -1,204
  -1,268
  -1,335
  -1,405
  -1,479
  -1,557
  -1,639
  -1,726
  -1,817
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  767
  558
  568
  579
  592
  606
  622
  639
  657
  676
  697
  592
  616
  642
  669
  698
  729
  761
  795
  831
  869
  910
  952
  997
  1,044
  1,094
  1,146
  1,201
  1,259
  1,320
  1,385
Funds from operations, $m
  379
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -135
  -147
  -159
  -173
  -187
  -202
  -218
  -234
  -252
  -271
  -290
  -311
  -333
  -356
  -380
  -405
  -432
Change in working capital, $m
  -423
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  802
  -88
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -170
  -184
  -198
  -214
  -231
  -248
  -266
  -286
  -306
  -328
  -350
  -374
  -399
  -426
  -454
  -483
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -423
  -431
  -440
  -452
  -464
  -479
  -494
  -511
  -529
  -549
  -570
  -592
  -616
  -642
  -669
  -698
  -729
  -761
  -795
  -831
  -869
  -910
  -952
  -997
  -1,044
  -1,094
  -1,146
  -1,201
  -1,259
  -1,320
New CAPEX, $m
  -641
  -40
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -290
  -305
  -321
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,180
  -463
  -481
  -497
  -516
  -534
  -556
  -578
  -602
  -627
  -654
  -683
  -712
  -744
  -778
  -813
  -851
  -891
  -932
  -976
  -1,022
  -1,071
  -1,123
  -1,176
  -1,233
  -1,293
  -1,356
  -1,421
  -1,491
  -1,564
  -1,641
Free cash flow, $m
  -378
  -550
  -531
  -553
  -577
  -604
  -632
  -662
  -694
  -728
  -765
  -804
  -845
  -888
  -934
  -983
  -1,034
  -1,089
  -1,146
  -1,207
  -1,270
  -1,337
  -1,408
  -1,482
  -1,561
  -1,643
  -1,730
  -1,821
  -1,917
  -2,018
  -2,124
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  101
  117
  134
  151
  167
  183
  199
  216
  232
  250
  267
  285
  303
  322
  342
  362
  384
  406
  429
  453
  478
  504
  531
  559
  589
  620
  653
  687
  723
  760
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  9
  450
  461
  474
  489
  505
  524
  545
  568
  593
  619
  648
  679
  712
  747
  785
  824
  866
  911
  958
  1,008
  1,061
  1,116
  1,175
  1,237
  1,302
  1,371
  1,443
  1,520
  1,600
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -55
  110
  567
  595
  625
  656
  688
  723
  761
  800
  843
  886
  933
  982
  1,034
  1,089
  1,147
  1,208
  1,272
  1,340
  1,411
  1,486
  1,565
  1,647
  1,734
  1,826
  1,922
  2,024
  2,130
  2,243
  2,360
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -490
  -450
  -414
  -419
  -427
  -437
  -449
  -462
  -478
  -496
  -515
  -537
  -560
  -585
  -612
  -641
  -672
  -705
  -740
  -778
  -818
  -860
  -904
  -952
  -1,001
  -1,054
  -1,110
  -1,168
  -1,230
  -1,295
  -1,364
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  912
  -28
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -225
  -236
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  468
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  94.1
  88.7
  83.6
  78.8
  74.2
  69.9
  65.8
  61.9
  58.3
  54.8
  51.5
  48.4
  45.5
  42.7
  40.1
  37.6
  35.2
  33.0
  31.0
  29.0
  27.1
  25.4
  23.8
  22.2
  20.8
  19.4
  18.2
  17.0
  15.9

Computer Sciences Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides information technology services and solutions primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. It operates through two segments, Global Business Services (GBS) and Global Infrastructure Services (GIS). The GBS segment offers technology solutions comprising consulting, applications services, and software. This segment also provides applications services, which optimize and modernize clients' business and technical environments that enable clients to capitalize on emerging services, such as cloud, mobility, and big data within new commercial models, including the ‘as a Service’ and digital economies; consulting services, which help organizations innovate, transform, and create sustainable competitive advantage; and vertically aligned software solutions and process-based intellectual property power mission-critical transaction engines in insurance, banking, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, and other diversified industries. The GIS segment offers managed and virtual desktop, unified communications and collaboration, data center management, cyber security, and compute and managed storage solutions to commercial clients. This segment also provides next-generation cloud offerings consisting of Infrastructure as a Service, private cloud solutions, CloudMail, and Storage as a Service. The company has a strategic partnership with HCL Technologies to create an applications modernization delivery network. Computer Sciences Corporation was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Computer Sciences (CSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 59.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 95.5%
Total Debt to Equity 130.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Operating Margin 1.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate -620%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -173.5%
Payout Ratio 171.3%

CSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7106 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Computer Sciences. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Computer Sciences. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Computer Sciences, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Computer Sciences.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.8% for Computer Sciences.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Computer Sciences. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSC are equal to 29.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Computer Sciences operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSC is equal to 4.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2025 million for Computer Sciences - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 136.792 million for Computer Sciences is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Computer Sciences at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.4 billion.


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