Intrinsic value of Castlight Health Cl B - CSLT

Previous Close

$4.20

  Intrinsic Value

$5.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+38%

Previous close

$4.20

 
Intrinsic value

$5.80

 
Up/down potential

+38%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSLT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.00
  34.60
  31.64
  28.98
  26.58
  24.42
  22.48
  20.73
  19.16
  17.74
  16.47
  15.32
  14.29
  13.36
  12.52
  11.77
  11.09
  10.48
  9.94
  9.44
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
Revenue, $m
  102
  137
  181
  233
  295
  367
  450
  543
  647
  762
  887
  1,023
  1,169
  1,325
  1,491
  1,667
  1,852
  2,046
  2,249
  2,462
  2,683
  2,914
  3,154
  3,403
  3,663
  3,932
  4,213
  4,504
  4,807
  5,121
  5,449
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  57
  74
  96
  122
  151
  185
  224
  266
  314
  365
  421
  482
  546
  614
  687
  763
  843
  927
  1,014
  1,105
  1,200
  1,299
  1,402
  1,509
  1,620
  1,736
  1,856
  1,980
  2,110
  2,245
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  220
  226
  232
  237
  243
  249
  256
  262
  268
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  188
  208
  234
  263
  296
  333
  376
  422
  474
  529
  589
  654
  722
  795
  872
  953
  1,038
  1,127
  1,219
  1,315
  1,415
  1,519
  1,628
  1,741
  1,857
  1,979
  2,105
  2,236
  2,372
  2,513
Operating income, $m
  -59
  -50
  -28
  -1
  32
  71
  116
  167
  224
  288
  358
  434
  515
  603
  696
  795
  899
  1,008
  1,123
  1,243
  1,368
  1,498
  1,634
  1,775
  1,922
  2,075
  2,234
  2,399
  2,571
  2,749
  2,935
EBITDA, $m
  -56
  -49
  -26
  2
  36
  76
  122
  174
  233
  298
  369
  447
  530
  620
  715
  816
  922
  1,034
  1,152
  1,274
  1,402
  1,536
  1,674
  1,819
  1,969
  2,125
  2,288
  2,457
  2,632
  2,815
  3,005
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
Earnings before tax, $m
  -59
  -50
  -28
  -1
  31
  69
  113
  163
  219
  281
  350
  424
  504
  590
  681
  777
  879
  986
  1,098
  1,215
  1,338
  1,465
  1,598
  1,736
  1,880
  2,029
  2,185
  2,346
  2,514
  2,689
  2,871
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  8
  19
  31
  44
  59
  76
  94
  114
  136
  159
  184
  210
  237
  266
  297
  328
  361
  396
  432
  469
  508
  548
  590
  633
  679
  726
  775
Net income, $m
  -59
  -50
  -28
  -1
  23
  50
  83
  119
  160
  205
  255
  309
  368
  430
  497
  567
  642
  720
  802
  887
  977
  1,070
  1,167
  1,268
  1,372
  1,481
  1,595
  1,713
  1,835
  1,963
  2,096

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  157
  57
  74
  96
  121
  151
  185
  223
  266
  314
  365
  421
  481
  546
  614
  686
  762
  842
  926
  1,013
  1,105
  1,200
  1,298
  1,401
  1,508
  1,619
  1,734
  1,854
  1,979
  2,108
  2,243
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  42
  57
  74
  96
  121
  151
  185
  223
  266
  314
  365
  421
  481
  546
  614
  686
  762
  842
  926
  1,013
  1,105
  1,200
  1,298
  1,401
  1,508
  1,619
  1,734
  1,854
  1,979
  2,108
  2,243
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.429
  2.404
  2.446
  2.427
  2.438
  2.430
  2.432
  2.435
  2.432
  2.427
  2.430
  2.430
  2.430
  2.427
  2.428
  2.430
  2.430
  2.430
  2.429
  2.430
  2.428
  2.428
  2.430
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.430
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
Average production assets, $m
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  29
  35
  41
  49
  57
  65
  75
  85
  95
  107
  119
  131
  144
  158
  172
  186
  202
  218
  234
  252
  270
  288
  308
  328
  349
Working capital, $m
  92
  -31
  -41
  -52
  -66
  -83
  -101
  -122
  -146
  -171
  -200
  -230
  -263
  -298
  -336
  -375
  -417
  -460
  -506
  -554
  -604
  -656
  -710
  -766
  -824
  -885
  -948
  -1,013
  -1,081
  -1,152
  -1,226
Total debt, $m
  0
  -4
  12
  31
  54
  81
  112
  146
  185
  227
  274
  324
  378
  436
  498
  563
  631
  703
  778
  857
  939
  1,025
  1,114
  1,206
  1,302
  1,402
  1,506
  1,614
  1,726
  1,843
  1,964
Total liabilities, $m
  55
  51
  67
  86
  109
  136
  167
  201
  240
  282
  329
  379
  433
  491
  553
  618
  686
  758
  833
  912
  994
  1,080
  1,169
  1,261
  1,357
  1,457
  1,561
  1,669
  1,781
  1,898
  2,019
Total equity, $m
  102
  6
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  22
  27
  31
  37
  42
  48
  55
  61
  69
  76
  84
  93
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  157
  57
  74
  96
  121
  151
  186
  223
  267
  313
  366
  421
  481
  546
  614
  687
  762
  842
  926
  1,013
  1,104
  1,200
  1,299
  1,401
  1,508
  1,619
  1,734
  1,854
  1,979
  2,109
  2,243
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.730
  1.610
  3.270
  4.470
  5.360
  6.030
  6.540
  6.930
  7.250
  7.490
  7.690
  7.860
  7.990
  8.100
  8.200
  8.280
  8.350
  8.410
  8.460
  8.500
  8.540
  8.580
  8.610
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.310
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -59
  -50
  -28
  -1
  23
  50
  83
  119
  160
  205
  255
  309
  368
  430
  497
  567
  642
  720
  802
  887
  977
  1,070
  1,167
  1,268
  1,372
  1,481
  1,595
  1,713
  1,835
  1,963
  2,096
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
Funds from operations, $m
  -46
  -49
  -26
  2
  26
  55
  88
  126
  168
  215
  267
  323
  383
  447
  516
  589
  665
  746
  831
  919
  1,011
  1,107
  1,207
  1,311
  1,419
  1,532
  1,649
  1,770
  1,897
  2,029
  2,166
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
Cash from operations, $m
  -37
  -41
  -16
  14
  40
  71
  107
  147
  192
  241
  295
  353
  416
  482
  553
  628
  707
  790
  876
  967
  1,061
  1,159
  1,261
  1,367
  1,478
  1,592
  1,712
  1,836
  1,965
  2,099
  2,239
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from investing activities, $m
  46
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  -44
  -21
  8
  33
  63
  97
  135
  178
  225
  277
  333
  393
  458
  526
  598
  674
  754
  837
  924
  1,015
  1,110
  1,208
  1,311
  1,418
  1,528
  1,644
  1,763
  1,888
  2,018
  2,153
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -4
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  69
  30
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  20
  65
  46
  22
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  21
  25
  31
  56
  90
  127
  170
  217
  268
  324
  383
  447
  515
  587
  663
  742
  826
  912
  1,003
  1,097
  1,195
  1,297
  1,403
  1,514
  1,628
  1,747
  1,871
  2,000
  2,134
  2,274
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  16
  -69
  -30
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  67
  -4
  27
  54
  87
  124
  166
  212
  263
  318
  378
  441
  509
  580
  656
  735
  818
  904
  994
  1,088
  1,186
  1,287
  1,393
  1,503
  1,617
  1,736
  1,859
  1,988
  2,121
  2,261
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  64
  -4
  24
  44
  67
  90
  112
  133
  151
  167
  179
  188
  194
  195
  193
  187
  178
  166
  153
  138
  123
  107
  91
  77
  63
  51
  40
  31
  23
  17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  26.0
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1
  24.1

Castlight Health, Inc. offers a health benefits platform that engages employees to make healthcare decisions, and enables employers to communicate and measure their benefit programs. The Company operates through cloud-based products segment. Its technology offering aggregates data and applies analytics to make healthcare data transparent. Its products deliver employee engagement and enable employers to integrate benefit programs into a single platform available to employees and their families. Its health benefits platform engages external data and its substantial user base to provide a single, end-to-end solution that engages employees through personalized and relevant communications. Its offering provides employers the opportunity to communicate, measure, and get value out of their benefits and programs on a real-time basis. It offers cross-sell products, such as Castlight Action, Castlight Pharmacy, Castlight Dental, Castlight Elevate, Castlight Protect and Castlight Rewards.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Castlight Health Cl B (CSLT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.4
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -35.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.1%
Return On Total Capital -53.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.7%
Return On Equity -53.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.6%
EBITDA Margin -54.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -114.6%
Operating Margin -57.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -57.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.2%
Net Profit Margin -57.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSLT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSLT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $102 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Castlight Health Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Castlight Health Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSLT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSLT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Castlight Health Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Castlight Health Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSLT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $128 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSLT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Castlight Health Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Castlight Health Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSLT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSLT are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 2.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Castlight Health Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSLT is equal to -22.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $102 million for Castlight Health Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 139.088 million for Castlight Health Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Castlight Health Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Castlight reports 3Q loss   [Oct-25-17 07:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Castlight Health to Announce Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-05-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] GE Cuts Wind-Energy Stock Stake by $30M   [Aug-16-17 05:52AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Castlight reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 03:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Castlight Health Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Castlight Health to Announce Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-13-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Digital Health Companies Poised for Sizzling Growth   [May-16-17 03:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ What's Behind Castlight Health Rallying 13.2% Today   [May-10-17 04:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Castlight reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 07:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Castlight Health completes acquisition of startup Jiff   [Apr-05-17 10:53AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Here's Why Castlight Health Inc. Is Soaring Today   [Feb-16-17 02:15PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Castlight reports 4Q loss   [06:38PM  AP]
▶ 13 Questions For Bryan Roberts Of Venrock   [Jan-31-17 08:33AM  at Forbes]
▶ [$$] Castlight Health Acquires Jiff in $117.5 Million Stock Deal   [Jan-06-17 02:41PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is Castlight Health Inc (CSLT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-08-16 12:55PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Cryolife Inc (CRY) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 10:41PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Castlight Health Selected by CSM Bakery Solutions   [Nov-18-16 08:30AM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of CSLT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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