Intrinsic value of Castlight Health Cl B - CSLT

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$3.95

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$3.95

 
Intrinsic value

$58.85

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSLT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.00
  42.90
  39.11
  35.70
  32.63
  29.87
  27.38
  25.14
  23.13
  21.31
  19.68
  18.21
  16.89
  15.70
  14.63
  13.67
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.79
Revenue, $m
  102
  146
  203
  275
  365
  474
  604
  755
  930
  1,128
  1,351
  1,597
  1,866
  2,159
  2,475
  2,814
  3,174
  3,556
  3,958
  4,381
  4,824
  5,288
  5,772
  6,276
  6,800
  7,346
  7,913
  8,502
  9,115
  9,751
  10,413
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  60
  84
  113
  150
  195
  249
  311
  383
  465
  556
  658
  769
  890
  1,020
  1,159
  1,308
  1,465
  1,631
  1,805
  1,988
  2,179
  2,378
  2,586
  2,802
  3,026
  3,260
  3,503
  3,755
  4,018
  4,290
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  220
  226
  232
  237
  243
  249
  256
  262
  268
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  191
  218
  251
  291
  340
  397
  463
  539
  625
  720
  826
  941
  1,066
  1,201
  1,344
  1,498
  1,660
  1,831
  2,010
  2,198
  2,394
  2,598
  2,812
  3,034
  3,263
  3,503
  3,752
  4,011
  4,280
  4,558
Operating income, $m
  -59
  -45
  -15
  24
  73
  134
  207
  292
  391
  504
  630
  771
  925
  1,093
  1,275
  1,469
  1,676
  1,896
  2,128
  2,371
  2,627
  2,894
  3,173
  3,464
  3,767
  4,082
  4,410
  4,750
  5,104
  5,472
  5,854
EBITDA, $m
  -56
  -44
  -13
  27
  78
  140
  214
  302
  403
  518
  648
  791
  949
  1,121
  1,306
  1,505
  1,717
  1,941
  2,178
  2,428
  2,689
  2,962
  3,247
  3,545
  3,854
  4,176
  4,511
  4,859
  5,221
  5,597
  5,988
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  101
  108
  116
  125
Earnings before tax, $m
  -59
  -45
  -15
  23
  72
  131
  202
  286
  383
  494
  618
  755
  906
  1,071
  1,249
  1,439
  1,642
  1,857
  2,084
  2,322
  2,572
  2,834
  3,107
  3,391
  3,688
  3,996
  4,316
  4,649
  4,996
  5,356
  5,730
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  6
  19
  35
  55
  77
  103
  133
  167
  204
  245
  289
  337
  389
  443
  501
  563
  627
  694
  765
  839
  916
  996
  1,079
  1,165
  1,255
  1,349
  1,446
  1,547
Net income, $m
  -59
  -45
  -15
  17
  52
  96
  148
  209
  280
  360
  451
  551
  662
  782
  911
  1,050
  1,198
  1,355
  1,521
  1,695
  1,878
  2,069
  2,268
  2,476
  2,692
  2,917
  3,151
  3,394
  3,647
  3,910
  4,183

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  157
  60
  83
  113
  150
  195
  249
  311
  383
  465
  556
  657
  768
  889
  1,019
  1,158
  1,307
  1,464
  1,629
  1,804
  1,986
  2,177
  2,376
  2,584
  2,800
  3,024
  3,258
  3,500
  3,753
  4,015
  4,287
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  42
  60
  83
  113
  150
  195
  249
  311
  383
  465
  556
  657
  768
  889
  1,019
  1,158
  1,307
  1,464
  1,629
  1,804
  1,986
  2,177
  2,376
  2,584
  2,800
  3,024
  3,258
  3,500
  3,753
  4,015
  4,287
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.429
  2.433
  2.446
  2.434
  2.433
  2.431
  2.426
  2.428
  2.428
  2.426
  2.430
  2.431
  2.430
  2.429
  2.429
  2.430
  2.428
  2.429
  2.430
  2.428
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
Average production assets, $m
  7
  9
  13
  18
  23
  30
  39
  48
  60
  72
  86
  102
  119
  138
  158
  180
  203
  228
  253
  280
  309
  338
  369
  402
  435
  470
  506
  544
  583
  624
  666
Working capital, $m
  92
  -33
  -46
  -62
  -82
  -107
  -136
  -170
  -209
  -254
  -304
  -359
  -420
  -486
  -557
  -633
  -714
  -800
  -891
  -986
  -1,086
  -1,190
  -1,299
  -1,412
  -1,530
  -1,653
  -1,780
  -1,913
  -2,051
  -2,194
  -2,343
Total debt, $m
  0
  -1
  20
  47
  80
  121
  169
  225
  290
  363
  445
  537
  636
  745
  862
  988
  1,121
  1,262
  1,412
  1,568
  1,733
  1,904
  2,084
  2,270
  2,465
  2,667
  2,877
  3,095
  3,322
  3,558
  3,803
Total liabilities, $m
  55
  54
  75
  102
  135
  176
  224
  280
  345
  418
  500
  592
  691
  800
  917
  1,043
  1,176
  1,317
  1,467
  1,623
  1,788
  1,959
  2,139
  2,325
  2,520
  2,722
  2,932
  3,150
  3,377
  3,613
  3,858
Total equity, $m
  102
  6
  8
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  38
  46
  56
  66
  77
  89
  102
  116
  131
  146
  163
  180
  199
  218
  238
  258
  280
  302
  326
  350
  375
  401
  429
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  157
  60
  83
  113
  150
  196
  249
  311
  383
  464
  556
  658
  768
  889
  1,019
  1,159
  1,307
  1,463
  1,630
  1,803
  1,987
  2,177
  2,377
  2,583
  2,800
  3,024
  3,258
  3,500
  3,752
  4,014
  4,287
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.170
  2.410
  4.140
  5.340
  6.180
  6.790
  7.230
  7.560
  7.820
  8.010
  8.160
  8.280
  8.380
  8.460
  8.530
  8.580
  8.620
  8.660
  8.700
  8.720
  8.750
  8.770
  8.790
  8.800
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.310
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -59
  -45
  -15
  17
  52
  96
  148
  209
  280
  360
  451
  551
  662
  782
  911
  1,050
  1,198
  1,355
  1,521
  1,695
  1,878
  2,069
  2,268
  2,476
  2,692
  2,917
  3,151
  3,394
  3,647
  3,910
  4,183
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  133
Funds from operations, $m
  -46
  -44
  -13
  20
  57
  102
  155
  219
  292
  375
  468
  572
  686
  809
  943
  1,086
  1,239
  1,401
  1,572
  1,751
  1,939
  2,136
  2,342
  2,556
  2,779
  3,011
  3,252
  3,503
  3,764
  4,034
  4,316
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
Cash from operations, $m
  -37
  -34
  0
  37
  77
  126
  185
  253
  331
  419
  518
  627
  746
  875
  1,014
  1,163
  1,320
  1,487
  1,662
  1,846
  2,039
  2,241
  2,451
  2,669
  2,897
  3,134
  3,380
  3,636
  3,901
  4,178
  4,465
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  46
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -167
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  -38
  -5
  30
  68
  115
  170
  235
  310
  395
  489
  594
  709
  833
  966
  1,109
  1,261
  1,422
  1,591
  1,769
  1,955
  2,149
  2,352
  2,563
  2,783
  3,012
  3,249
  3,497
  3,753
  4,020
  4,298
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -1
  21
  27
  33
  40
  48
  56
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  109
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  157
  164
  172
  179
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  20
  -1
  21
  27
  33
  40
  48
  56
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  109
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  157
  164
  172
  179
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  -39
  16
  56
  101
  155
  218
  292
  375
  468
  572
  685
  808
  941
  1,083
  1,235
  1,395
  1,563
  1,740
  1,925
  2,119
  2,321
  2,531
  2,750
  2,977
  3,214
  3,460
  3,715
  3,980
  4,256
  4,543
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  16
  -19
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  57
  13
  53
  97
  150
  213
  285
  368
  460
  563
  675
  797
  929
  1,070
  1,221
  1,380
  1,547
  1,723
  1,908
  2,101
  2,302
  2,511
  2,729
  2,956
  3,191
  3,436
  3,691
  3,955
  4,230
  4,516
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  54
  12
  46
  80
  117
  155
  193
  230
  264
  295
  321
  340
  353
  359
  358
  351
  337
  317
  294
  267
  238
  208
  179
  151
  124
  100
  79
  61
  46
  34
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Castlight Health, Inc. provides cloud-based software in the United States. Its software products enable employees to make health care decisions, and to communicate and measure their benefit programs. The company also offers communication and engagement, implementation, and customer support services. It serves customers in a range of industries, including education, manufacturing, retail, technology, and government. The company was formerly known as Ventana Health Services and changed its name to Castlight Health, Inc. in April 2010. Castlight Health, Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Castlight Health Cl B (CSLT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -35.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.1%
Return On Total Capital -53.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.7%
Return On Equity -53.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.6%
EBITDA Margin -54.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -114.6%
Operating Margin -57.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -57.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.2%
Net Profit Margin -57.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSLT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSLT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $102 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Castlight Health Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Castlight Health Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSLT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 42.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSLT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Castlight Health Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Castlight Health Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSLT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $128 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSLT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Castlight Health Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Castlight Health Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSLT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSLT are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 2.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Castlight Health Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSLT is equal to -22.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $102 million for Castlight Health Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 102.584 million for Castlight Health Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Castlight Health Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Castlight Health completes acquisition of startup Jiff   [Apr-05-17 10:53AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Here's Why Castlight Health Inc. Is Soaring Today   [Feb-16-17 02:15PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Castlight reports 4Q loss   [06:38PM  AP]
▶ 13 Questions For Bryan Roberts Of Venrock   [Jan-31-17 08:33AM  at Forbes]
▶ [$$] Castlight Health Acquires Jiff in $117.5 Million Stock Deal   [Jan-06-17 02:41PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is Castlight Health Inc (CSLT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-08-16 12:55PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Cryolife Inc (CRY) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 10:41PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Castlight Health Selected by CSM Bakery Solutions   [Nov-18-16 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Castlight Health Jumped 12.1% in August -- Here's Why   [Sep-09-16 10:42AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Castlight reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-16 04:59PM  AP]
▶ Right To Shop: The Next Big Thing In Health Care   [Aug-05-16 12:12PM  at Forbes]
Stock chart of CSLT Financial statements of CSLT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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