Intrinsic value of Cornerstone OnDemand - CSOD

Previous Close

$35.10

  Intrinsic Value

$6.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

  Value-price divergence*

-3%

Previous close

$35.10

 
Intrinsic value

$6.61

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-3%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSOD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.41
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  423
  478
  537
  599
  665
  733
  805
  880
  958
  1,039
  1,124
  1,212
  1,303
  1,398
  1,497
  1,599
  1,706
  1,817
  1,932
  2,052
  2,177
  2,308
  2,444
  2,585
  2,733
  2,887
  3,049
  3,217
  3,393
  3,577
  3,770
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  409
  459
  512
  567
  626
  687
  750
  817
  886
  958
  1,030
  1,107
  1,188
  1,272
  1,359
  1,450
  1,544
  1,642
  1,744
  1,851
  1,961
  2,077
  2,197
  2,323
  2,454
  2,591
  2,734
  2,884
  3,040
  3,204
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  170
  174
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  240
  246
  252
Total operating expenses, $m
  479
  532
  585
  641
  699
  762
  826
  893
  963
  1,036
  1,112
  1,187
  1,268
  1,353
  1,442
  1,533
  1,628
  1,727
  1,829
  1,936
  2,048
  2,163
  2,284
  2,409
  2,540
  2,676
  2,819
  2,968
  3,124
  3,286
  3,456
Operating income, $m
  -56
  -54
  -48
  -42
  -35
  -28
  -21
  -13
  -5
  4
  13
  24
  34
  44
  55
  66
  78
  90
  103
  116
  130
  145
  160
  176
  193
  211
  230
  249
  270
  292
  314
EBITDA, $m
  -24
  -45
  -39
  -32
  -25
  -17
  -9
  0
  9
  19
  29
  39
  50
  61
  73
  86
  99
  112
  126
  141
  157
  173
  190
  208
  226
  246
  267
  288
  311
  335
  360
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
Earnings before tax, $m
  -66
  -62
  -58
  -54
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -38
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -15
  -9
  -3
  3
  9
  16
  24
  31
  39
  48
  56
  66
  75
  86
  97
  108
  120
  133
  146
  161
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  43
Net income, $m
  -67
  -62
  -58
  -54
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -38
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -15
  -9
  -3
  2
  7
  12
  17
  23
  29
  35
  41
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  107
  117

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  302
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  624
  706
  792
  884
  980
  1,081
  1,187
  1,298
  1,413
  1,533
  1,658
  1,787
  1,922
  2,062
  2,208
  2,359
  2,516
  2,680
  2,850
  3,027
  3,212
  3,404
  3,604
  3,813
  4,031
  4,259
  4,497
  4,745
  5,004
  5,276
  5,560
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  322
  706
  792
  884
  980
  1,081
  1,187
  1,298
  1,413
  1,533
  1,658
  1,787
  1,922
  2,062
  2,208
  2,359
  2,516
  2,680
  2,850
  3,027
  3,212
  3,404
  3,604
  3,813
  4,031
  4,259
  4,497
  4,745
  5,004
  5,276
  5,560
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.314
  0.677
  0.678
  0.678
  0.679
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
Average production assets, $m
  51
  58
  65
  73
  80
  89
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  169
  181
  194
  206
  220
  234
  248
  263
  279
  296
  313
  331
  349
  369
  389
  411
  433
  456
Working capital, $m
  148
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -259
  -273
  -289
  -305
  -322
  -339
  -358
  -377
Total debt, $m
  238
  276
  354
  437
  523
  614
  710
  809
  913
  1,021
  1,133
  1,250
  1,371
  1,497
  1,628
  1,764
  1,906
  2,053
  2,206
  2,365
  2,531
  2,704
  2,885
  3,073
  3,269
  3,474
  3,688
  3,911
  4,145
  4,389
  4,645
Total liabilities, $m
  597
  635
  713
  796
  882
  973
  1,069
  1,168
  1,272
  1,380
  1,492
  1,609
  1,730
  1,856
  1,987
  2,123
  2,265
  2,412
  2,565
  2,724
  2,890
  3,063
  3,244
  3,432
  3,628
  3,833
  4,047
  4,270
  4,504
  4,748
  5,004
Total equity, $m
  27
  71
  79
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  141
  153
  166
  179
  192
  206
  221
  236
  252
  268
  285
  303
  321
  340
  360
  381
  403
  426
  450
  474
  500
  528
  556
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  624
  706
  792
  884
  980
  1,081
  1,188
  1,298
  1,413
  1,533
  1,658
  1,788
  1,922
  2,062
  2,208
  2,359
  2,517
  2,680
  2,850
  3,027
  3,211
  3,403
  3,604
  3,813
  4,031
  4,259
  4,497
  4,744
  5,004
  5,276
  5,560
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.815
  3.910
  4.470
  4.940
  5.340
  5.680
  5.980
  6.230
  6.460
  6.660
  6.830
  6.990
  7.130
  7.260
  7.370
  7.480
  7.570
  7.660
  7.740
  7.810
  7.880
  7.950
  8.000
  8.060
  8.110
  8.160
  8.200
  8.240
  8.280
  8.320
  8.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.854
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -67
  -62
  -58
  -54
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -38
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -15
  -9
  -3
  2
  7
  12
  17
  23
  29
  35
  41
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  107
  117
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  -54
  -49
  -44
  -40
  -35
  -30
  -25
  -19
  -13
  -7
  0
  6
  13
  20
  26
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  69
  78
  86
  96
  105
  116
  127
  138
  150
  163
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  35
  -48
  -43
  -38
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -17
  -11
  -5
  1
  8
  15
  23
  30
  36
  43
  50
  58
  65
  74
  82
  91
  101
  110
  121
  132
  144
  156
  169
  182
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -82
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -60
  -56
  -52
  -49
  -45
  -40
  -36
  -31
  -26
  -21
  -16
  -10
  -4
  1
  6
  11
  16
  22
  27
  34
  40
  47
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  96
  105
  116
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  38
  78
  82
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  256
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  106
  66
  63
  60
  57
  53
  49
  45
  40
  36
  28
  23
  17
  13
  8
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  144
  144
  145
  147
  148
  148
  148
  149
  148
  148
  145
  144
  143
  144
  144
  146
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  256
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -24
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  175
  187
  200
  213
  227
  242
  258
  274
  291
  310
  329
  350
  371
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -106
  -66
  -63
  -60
  -57
  -53
  -49
  -45
  -40
  -36
  -28
  -23
  -17
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -22
  22
  30
  38
  46
  55
  63
  72
  81
  91
  101
  111
  122
  130
  135
  141
  147
  158
  169
  181
  194
  207
  221
  236
  251
  268
  285
  303
  322
  343
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -21
  21
  26
  31
  36
  40
  43
  45
  47
  48
  48
  47
  46
  44
  40
  36
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  71.9
  65.7
  60.8
  57.0
  53.8
  51.3
  49.3
  47.6
  46.3
  45.3
  44.5
  43.9
  43.6
  43.3
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1

Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management software through software-as-a-service model worldwide. Its products suite includes recruiting suite that helps organizations to source and attract candidates, assess and select applicants, onboard new hires, and manage the entire recruiting process; learning suite, which enables clients to manage training and development programs, knowledge sharing and collaboration among employees, track compliance requirements, and support career development for employees; performance suite that provides tools to manage goal setting, performance reviews, competency assessments, development plans, continuous feedback, compensation management, and succession planning; and human resource administration suite, which supports employee records administration, organizational management, employee and manager self-service, workforce planning, and compliance reporting. The company also offers Cornerstone Growth Edition, a cloud-based learning and talent management solution for organizations with 250 or fewer employees; and Cornerstone Edge solutions that allow clients and partners to integrate with marketplace of service providers. In addition, it provides configuration support, systems integration, business process re-engineering, change management consulting, and training services. The company serves automotive, business services, education and publishing, financial services, food and restaurants, healthcare, insurance, media and communications, non-profits, pharmaceuticals, public sector, retail, technology, and travel industries. Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -29.6
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 73.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 56.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 165.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 881.5%
Total Debt to Equity 881.5%
Interest Coverage -16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.1%
Return On Total Capital -26.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.5%
Return On Equity -382.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -306.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.7%
EBITDA Margin -7.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.3%
Operating Margin -13.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Net Profit Margin -15.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.9%
Effective Tax Rate -1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSOD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSOD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $423 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cornerstone OnDemand. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cornerstone OnDemand. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSOD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSOD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cornerstone OnDemand, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cornerstone OnDemand.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSOD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $120 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSOD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cornerstone OnDemand.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cornerstone OnDemand. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSOD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSOD are equal to 12.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cornerstone OnDemand operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSOD is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $27 million for Cornerstone OnDemand - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.976 million for Cornerstone OnDemand is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cornerstone OnDemand at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cornerstone OnDemand reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 03:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sometimes You Just Need an Activist   [Jun-26-17 02:52PM  Bloomberg]
▶ Cornerstone OnDemand reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 05:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cornerstone OnDemand reports 4Q loss   [Feb-13-17 04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. (CSOD) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 04:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why These Stocks Will Fall Amid Trump's Bull Run (FET, ESV)   [Dec-05-16 03:00AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Cornerstone draws bullish position   [Nov-09-16 07:45AM  optionMONSTER]
▶ Why Cornerstone OnDemand Shares Plunged Today   [Nov-04-16 12:41PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of CSOD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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