Intrinsic value of CSP - CSPI

Previous Close

$18.09

  Intrinsic Value

$123.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+585%

Previous close

$18.09

 
Intrinsic value

$123.86

 
Up/down potential

+585%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.77
  38.50
  35.15
  32.14
  29.42
  26.98
  24.78
  22.80
  21.02
  19.42
  17.98
  16.68
  15.51
  14.46
  13.52
  12.66
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.07
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
Revenue, $m
  111
  154
  208
  275
  355
  451
  563
  691
  837
  999
  1,179
  1,375
  1,589
  1,819
  2,064
  2,326
  2,603
  2,894
  3,201
  3,522
  3,857
  4,207
  4,572
  4,951
  5,346
  5,756
  6,182
  6,625
  7,085
  7,564
  8,061
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  150
  202
  267
  346
  439
  548
  673
  814
  972
  1,147
  1,338
  1,546
  1,770
  2,009
  2,263
  2,532
  2,816
  3,114
  3,427
  3,753
  4,093
  4,448
  4,817
  5,201
  5,600
  6,015
  6,446
  6,894
  7,359
  7,843
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  108
  150
  202
  267
  346
  439
  548
  673
  814
  972
  1,147
  1,338
  1,546
  1,770
  2,009
  2,263
  2,532
  2,816
  3,114
  3,427
  3,753
  4,093
  4,448
  4,817
  5,201
  5,600
  6,015
  6,446
  6,894
  7,359
  7,843
Operating income, $m
  4
  4
  6
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  95
  104
  114
  123
  134
  144
  155
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
EBITDA, $m
  5
  4
  6
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  95
  104
  114
  123
  134
  144
  155
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  128
Tax expense, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
Net income, $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  59
  62
  84
  111
  144
  183
  228
  280
  339
  405
  478
  558
  644
  737
  837
  943
  1,055
  1,173
  1,297
  1,427
  1,563
  1,705
  1,853
  2,007
  2,167
  2,333
  2,506
  2,685
  2,872
  3,066
  3,268
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  45
  62
  84
  111
  144
  183
  228
  280
  339
  405
  478
  558
  644
  737
  837
  943
  1,055
  1,173
  1,297
  1,427
  1,563
  1,705
  1,853
  2,007
  2,167
  2,333
  2,506
  2,685
  2,872
  3,066
  3,268
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.467
  2.484
  2.476
  2.477
  2.465
  2.464
  2.469
  2.468
  2.469
  2.467
  2.467
  2.464
  2.467
  2.468
  2.466
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
  2.468
  2.468
  2.468
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
  2.467
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  26
  17
  22
  30
  38
  49
  61
  75
  90
  108
  127
  149
  172
  196
  223
  251
  281
  313
  346
  380
  417
  454
  494
  535
  577
  622
  668
  715
  765
  817
  871
Total debt, $m
  0
  15
  33
  56
  84
  116
  155
  199
  248
  304
  365
  433
  506
  584
  668
  758
  852
  952
  1,057
  1,167
  1,282
  1,401
  1,526
  1,656
  1,791
  1,931
  2,077
  2,228
  2,386
  2,550
  2,720
Total liabilities, $m
  38
  53
  71
  94
  122
  154
  193
  237
  286
  342
  403
  471
  544
  622
  706
  796
  890
  990
  1,095
  1,205
  1,320
  1,439
  1,564
  1,694
  1,829
  1,969
  2,115
  2,266
  2,424
  2,588
  2,758
Total equity, $m
  21
  10
  13
  17
  22
  29
  36
  44
  53
  63
  75
  87
  100
  115
  131
  147
  165
  183
  202
  223
  244
  266
  289
  313
  338
  364
  391
  419
  448
  478
  510
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  59
  63
  84
  111
  144
  183
  229
  281
  339
  405
  478
  558
  644
  737
  837
  943
  1,055
  1,173
  1,297
  1,428
  1,564
  1,705
  1,853
  2,007
  2,167
  2,333
  2,506
  2,685
  2,872
  3,066
  3,268
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  1.500
  2.520
  3.220
  3.720
  4.080
  4.340
  4.540
  4.690
  4.810
  4.900
  4.970
  5.030
  5.080
  5.120
  5.150
  5.180
  5.200
  5.220
  5.240
  5.250
  5.270
  5.280
  5.290
  5.300
  5.310
  5.310
  5.320
  5.330
  5.330
  5.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  40
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  40
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  15
  18
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  157
  164
  170
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  15
  18
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  157
  164
  170
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  13
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  45
  51
  58
  64
  70
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  110
  118
  125
  132
  140
  147
  155
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  24
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  23
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  23
  22
  20
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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CSP Inc. and its subsidiaries develop and market information technology (IT) integration solutions, security and managed services, network adapters, and cluster computer systems. The Company operates in two segments: High Performance Products (HPP) and Technology Solutions (TS). The HPP segment comprises two product lines: its Multicomputer product portfolio of computing systems for digital signal processing (DSP) applications within the defense market, and its Myricom product line of network Ethernet adapters that are offered to both commercial and government customers. In the TS segment, the Company focuses on value added reseller (VAR) integrated solutions, including third-party hardware, software and technical computer-related consulting services and managed services. Its DSP product line utilizes hardware components and open source software to deliver computer solutions to the customers. It provides installation, integration, logistical assistance and other value-added services.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CSP (CSPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.8
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 15.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Equity 15.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Operating Margin 2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Payout Ratio 66.7%

CSPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $111 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CSP. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CSP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CSP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CSP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CSP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CSP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSPI are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CSP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSPI is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $21 million for CSP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 3.648 million for CSP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CSP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to CSP, Inc. : December 28, 2017   [Dec-28-17 12:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CSP, Inc.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Dec-22-17 11:22AM  Capital Cube]
▶ CSPi Named a "Best New Security Product" at VMWorld 2017   [Dec-07-17 09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSPi Joins Fortinet Fabric-Ready Partner Program   [Nov-28-17 09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CSP, Inc. : November 13, 2017   [Nov-13-17 12:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CSPi Announces the ARIA Software Defined Security Platform   [Nov-09-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CSP, Inc. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 12:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CSP Inc. Promotes Two Senior Executives   [Aug-17-17 02:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSPi Reports Third-Quarter Fiscal 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-14-17 08:44AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSPi joins the Cisco Security Technology Alliance Ecosystem   [Jul-19-17 09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSP Inc. Announces Filing Extension for Form 10-Q   [May-15-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSP Inc. Announces Filing Extension for Form 10-Q   [Feb-14-17 09:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSPi to Attend FloCon 2017   [Jan-05-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSP Inc. Announces Filing Extension for Form 10-K   [Dec-29-16 06:28PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSPi Named to CRNs 2016 Solution Provider 500 List   [Jun-09-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CSP Inc. Appoints Ismail Azeri to Its Board of Directors   [Jan-04-16 11:27AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for CSP, Inc.   [Aug-16  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of CSPI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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