Intrinsic value of Cooper Tire&Rubber - CTB

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$35.85

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CTB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.61
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,925
  2,984
  3,052
  3,131
  3,219
  3,316
  3,423
  3,540
  3,666
  3,802
  3,948
  4,104
  4,271
  4,448
  4,636
  4,836
  5,048
  5,273
  5,510
  5,761
  6,025
  6,305
  6,599
  6,910
  7,237
  7,581
  7,944
  8,326
  8,728
  9,150
  9,595
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,628
  2,689
  2,758
  2,835
  2,921
  3,015
  3,117
  3,228
  3,348
  3,476
  3,608
  3,755
  3,911
  4,076
  4,252
  4,438
  4,636
  4,844
  5,065
  5,297
  5,543
  5,802
  6,075
  6,362
  6,665
  6,984
  7,320
  7,673
  8,045
  8,436
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,540
  2,628
  2,689
  2,758
  2,835
  2,921
  3,015
  3,117
  3,228
  3,348
  3,476
  3,608
  3,755
  3,911
  4,076
  4,252
  4,438
  4,636
  4,844
  5,065
  5,297
  5,543
  5,802
  6,075
  6,362
  6,665
  6,984
  7,320
  7,673
  8,045
  8,436
Operating income, $m
  384
  355
  363
  373
  384
  395
  408
  422
  438
  454
  472
  496
  516
  537
  560
  584
  610
  637
  666
  696
  728
  762
  797
  835
  874
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,054
  1,105
  1,159
EBITDA, $m
  514
  488
  500
  512
  527
  543
  560
  579
  600
  622
  646
  672
  699
  728
  759
  792
  826
  863
  902
  943
  986
  1,032
  1,080
  1,131
  1,184
  1,241
  1,300
  1,363
  1,428
  1,498
  1,570
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  83
  90
  99
  108
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  186
  200
  215
  230
  246
  264
  281
  300
  320
Earnings before tax, $m
  367
  328
  334
  340
  347
  354
  363
  372
  382
  392
  403
  421
  433
  447
  461
  477
  493
  510
  528
  547
  567
  589
  611
  635
  660
  686
  713
  742
  773
  805
  839
Tax expense, $m
  116
  89
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  114
  117
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  200
  209
  217
  226
Net income, $m
  248
  239
  244
  248
  253
  259
  265
  271
  279
  286
  294
  307
  316
  326
  337
  348
  360
  372
  385
  399
  414
  430
  446
  463
  481
  501
  521
  542
  564
  588
  612

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  504
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,619
  2,157
  2,207
  2,264
  2,327
  2,398
  2,475
  2,560
  2,651
  2,749
  2,855
  2,967
  3,088
  3,216
  3,352
  3,497
  3,650
  3,813
  3,984
  4,165
  4,357
  4,559
  4,772
  4,996
  5,233
  5,482
  5,744
  6,020
  6,311
  6,616
  6,938
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,115
  2,157
  2,207
  2,264
  2,327
  2,398
  2,475
  2,560
  2,651
  2,749
  2,855
  2,967
  3,088
  3,216
  3,352
  3,497
  3,650
  3,813
  3,984
  4,165
  4,357
  4,559
  4,772
  4,996
  5,233
  5,482
  5,744
  6,020
  6,311
  6,616
  6,938
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
  1.383
Average production assets, $m
  967
  985
  1,007
  1,033
  1,062
  1,094
  1,130
  1,168
  1,210
  1,255
  1,303
  1,354
  1,409
  1,468
  1,530
  1,596
  1,666
  1,740
  1,818
  1,901
  1,988
  2,081
  2,178
  2,280
  2,388
  2,502
  2,622
  2,748
  2,880
  3,020
  3,166
Working capital, $m
  920
  453
  464
  476
  489
  504
  520
  538
  557
  578
  600
  624
  649
  676
  705
  735
  767
  801
  838
  876
  916
  958
  1,003
  1,050
  1,100
  1,152
  1,207
  1,266
  1,327
  1,391
  1,458
Total debt, $m
  326
  328
  363
  404
  449
  500
  555
  616
  681
  751
  827
  908
  994
  1,086
  1,183
  1,287
  1,397
  1,513
  1,636
  1,765
  1,902
  2,047
  2,199
  2,360
  2,530
  2,708
  2,896
  3,093
  3,301
  3,520
  3,750
Total liabilities, $m
  1,543
  1,545
  1,580
  1,621
  1,666
  1,717
  1,772
  1,833
  1,898
  1,968
  2,044
  2,125
  2,211
  2,303
  2,400
  2,504
  2,614
  2,730
  2,853
  2,982
  3,119
  3,264
  3,416
  3,577
  3,747
  3,925
  4,113
  4,310
  4,518
  4,737
  4,967
Total equity, $m
  1,076
  613
  627
  643
  661
  681
  703
  727
  753
  781
  811
  843
  877
  913
  952
  993
  1,037
  1,083
  1,131
  1,183
  1,237
  1,295
  1,355
  1,419
  1,486
  1,557
  1,631
  1,710
  1,792
  1,879
  1,970
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,619
  2,158
  2,207
  2,264
  2,327
  2,398
  2,475
  2,560
  2,651
  2,749
  2,855
  2,968
  3,088
  3,216
  3,352
  3,497
  3,651
  3,813
  3,984
  4,165
  4,356
  4,559
  4,771
  4,996
  5,233
  5,482
  5,744
  6,020
  6,310
  6,616
  6,937
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.303
  0.530
  0.580
  0.630
  0.680
  0.730
  0.790
  0.850
  0.900
  0.960
  1.020
  1.080
  1.130
  1.190
  1.240
  1.300
  1.350
  1.400
  1.450
  1.490
  1.540
  1.580
  1.620
  1.660
  1.700
  1.740
  1.780
  1.810
  1.840
  1.870
  1.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.283
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  248
  239
  244
  248
  253
  259
  265
  271
  279
  286
  294
  307
  316
  326
  337
  348
  360
  372
  385
  399
  414
  430
  446
  463
  481
  501
  521
  542
  564
  588
  612
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  130
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
Funds from operations, $m
  170
  373
  380
  388
  396
  406
  417
  428
  441
  454
  469
  483
  499
  517
  535
  555
  576
  598
  622
  646
  672
  700
  729
  759
  792
  825
  861
  899
  938
  980
  1,024
Change in working capital, $m
  -140
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  310
  402
  369
  376
  383
  391
  401
  411
  422
  434
  447
  459
  474
  490
  507
  525
  544
  564
  586
  608
  632
  657
  684
  712
  742
  773
  806
  841
  877
  916
  956
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -126
  -128
  -131
  -134
  -138
  -142
  -147
  -152
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -340
  -357
  -374
  -392
New CAPEX, $m
  -175
  -18
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -147
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -181
  -144
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -385
  -404
  -424
  -445
  -466
  -490
  -513
  -539
Free cash flow, $m
  129
  259
  219
  219
  220
  221
  223
  226
  228
  232
  236
  238
  243
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  281
  289
  298
  307
  317
  327
  338
  349
  361
  374
  388
  402
  417
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  30
  36
  41
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  152
  161
  169
  178
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -95
  30
  36
  41
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  152
  161
  169
  178
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  288
  254
  260
  265
  272
  279
  286
  294
  302
  311
  319
  329
  340
  352
  364
  376
  390
  404
  419
  435
  452
  469
  488
  507
  528
  549
  572
  596
  621
  647
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -97
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -91
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  476
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  752
  240
  243
  247
  252
  257
  262
  268
  274
  281
  287
  295
  304
  313
  323
  333
  344
  355
  368
  381
  394
  409
  424
  440
  457
  475
  494
  513
  534
  556
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  721
  220
  212
  204
  195
  186
  177
  167
  158
  147
  136
  126
  115
  105
  95
  85
  75
  65
  57
  48
  41
  34
  28
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cooper Tire & Rubber Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets replacement tires in North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. The company operates through Americas Tire Operations and International Tire Operations segments. It manufactures and markets passenger car, light truck, motorcycle, and racing tires, as well as tire retread material; and distributes tires for racing, medium trucks, and motorcycles. The company sells its products to independent tire dealers, wholesale distributors, regional and national retail tire chains, and other tire and automotive product retail chains, as well as original equipment manufacturers; and directly to end users through three owned retail stores. Cooper Tire & Rubber Company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cooper Tire&Rubber (CTB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.7
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 27.7%
Total Debt to Equity 30.3%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 18.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Return On Equity 24.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
EBITDA Margin 18%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 13.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Effective Tax Rate 31.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Payout Ratio 9.3%

CTB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CTB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2925 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cooper Tire&Rubber. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cooper Tire&Rubber. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CTB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CTB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cooper Tire&Rubber, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cooper Tire&Rubber.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CTB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CTB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.1% for Cooper Tire&Rubber.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cooper Tire&Rubber. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CTB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CTB are equal to 33%.

Life of production assets of 7.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cooper Tire&Rubber operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CTB is equal to 15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1076 million for Cooper Tire&Rubber - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.683 million for Cooper Tire&Rubber is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cooper Tire&Rubber at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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Stock chart of CTB Financial statements of CTB Annual reports of CTB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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