Intrinsic value of CareTrust REIT - CTRE

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$17.83

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$17.83

 
Intrinsic value

$1.67

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CTRE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CTRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  40.54
  27.30
  25.07
  23.06
  21.26
  19.63
  18.17
  16.85
  15.67
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
Revenue, $m
  104
  132
  166
  204
  247
  296
  349
  408
  472
  541
  615
  693
  777
  864
  956
  1,053
  1,154
  1,260
  1,369
  1,484
  1,602
  1,726
  1,854
  1,988
  2,127
  2,271
  2,421
  2,577
  2,739
  2,908
  3,084
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  53
  67
  82
  100
  119
  141
  165
  191
  219
  248
  280
  314
  349
  386
  425
  466
  509
  553
  599
  647
  697
  749
  803
  859
  917
  978
  1,041
  1,106
  1,175
  1,246
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  52
  63
  78
  93
  111
  130
  153
  177
  203
  231
  261
  293
  327
  363
  400
  439
  481
  524
  569
  615
  663
  714
  766
  821
  877
  936
  997
  1,060
  1,126
  1,195
  1,267
Operating income, $m
  52
  69
  88
  111
  136
  165
  197
  231
  269
  310
  354
  400
  449
  501
  556
  613
  673
  735
  801
  868
  939
  1,012
  1,088
  1,167
  1,249
  1,335
  1,424
  1,516
  1,612
  1,713
  1,817
EBITDA, $m
  84
  109
  139
  173
  212
  256
  304
  357
  415
  477
  543
  614
  689
  768
  851
  938
  1,029
  1,124
  1,223
  1,326
  1,433
  1,544
  1,660
  1,780
  1,905
  2,035
  2,170
  2,311
  2,457
  2,609
  2,768
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  25
  33
  41
  51
  62
  74
  88
  103
  119
  137
  156
  176
  197
  220
  243
  268
  294
  321
  349
  378
  408
  440
  473
  507
  543
  579
  618
  658
  699
  742
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  43
  56
  70
  85
  103
  122
  143
  166
  191
  217
  244
  273
  304
  336
  370
  405
  442
  480
  519
  561
  603
  648
  694
  742
  792
  844
  898
  955
  1,013
  1,075
Tax expense, $m
  0
  12
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  51
  58
  66
  74
  82
  91
  100
  109
  119
  130
  140
  151
  163
  175
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  258
  274
  290
Net income, $m
  29
  32
  41
  51
  62
  75
  89
  105
  121
  139
  158
  178
  200
  222
  245
  270
  296
  322
  350
  379
  409
  441
  473
  507
  542
  578
  616
  656
  697
  740
  784

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  925
  1,172
  1,465
  1,803
  2,187
  2,616
  3,091
  3,612
  4,178
  4,788
  5,441
  6,136
  6,872
  7,649
  8,464
  9,320
  10,213
  11,146
  12,118
  13,129
  14,181
  15,275
  16,411
  17,592
  18,820
  20,095
  21,422
  22,802
  24,237
  25,732
  27,289
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  917
  1,172
  1,465
  1,803
  2,187
  2,616
  3,091
  3,612
  4,178
  4,788
  5,441
  6,136
  6,872
  7,649
  8,464
  9,320
  10,213
  11,146
  12,118
  13,129
  14,181
  15,275
  16,411
  17,592
  18,820
  20,095
  21,422
  22,802
  24,237
  25,732
  27,289
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
Average production assets, $m
  770
  980
  1,225
  1,508
  1,828
  2,187
  2,584
  3,020
  3,493
  4,003
  4,549
  5,130
  5,746
  6,395
  7,077
  7,792
  8,539
  9,319
  10,132
  10,977
  11,857
  12,771
  13,721
  14,709
  15,735
  16,802
  17,911
  19,064
  20,265
  21,514
  22,816
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -54
  -63
  -73
  -83
  -95
  -107
  -120
  -133
  -147
  -162
  -178
  -194
  -211
  -228
  -247
  -266
  -286
  -306
  -328
  -350
  -373
  -397
  -422
  -448
  -475
Total debt, $m
  450
  582
  733
  907
  1,105
  1,327
  1,572
  1,841
  2,133
  2,447
  2,784
  3,143
  3,523
  3,924
  4,345
  4,786
  5,247
  5,728
  6,230
  6,752
  7,295
  7,859
  8,445
  9,055
  9,688
  10,346
  11,031
  11,743
  12,484
  13,255
  14,058
Total liabilities, $m
  473
  605
  756
  930
  1,128
  1,350
  1,595
  1,864
  2,156
  2,470
  2,807
  3,166
  3,546
  3,947
  4,368
  4,809
  5,270
  5,751
  6,253
  6,775
  7,318
  7,882
  8,468
  9,078
  9,711
  10,369
  11,054
  11,766
  12,507
  13,278
  14,081
Total equity, $m
  452
  567
  709
  873
  1,058
  1,266
  1,496
  1,748
  2,022
  2,317
  2,633
  2,970
  3,326
  3,702
  4,097
  4,511
  4,943
  5,395
  5,865
  6,355
  6,864
  7,393
  7,943
  8,515
  9,109
  9,726
  10,368
  11,036
  11,731
  12,454
  13,208
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  925
  1,172
  1,465
  1,803
  2,186
  2,616
  3,091
  3,612
  4,178
  4,787
  5,440
  6,136
  6,872
  7,649
  8,465
  9,320
  10,213
  11,146
  12,118
  13,130
  14,182
  15,275
  16,411
  17,593
  18,820
  20,095
  21,422
  22,802
  24,238
  25,732
  27,289
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.996
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  32
  41
  51
  62
  75
  89
  105
  121
  139
  158
  178
  200
  222
  245
  270
  296
  322
  350
  379
  409
  441
  473
  507
  542
  578
  616
  656
  697
  740
  784
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  41
  51
  63
  76
  91
  108
  126
  146
  167
  190
  214
  239
  266
  295
  325
  356
  388
  422
  457
  494
  532
  572
  613
  656
  700
  746
  794
  844
  896
  951
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  73
  92
  114
  139
  166
  197
  230
  267
  306
  348
  392
  439
  488
  540
  595
  651
  711
  772
  837
  903
  973
  1,045
  1,120
  1,198
  1,278
  1,363
  1,450
  1,541
  1,636
  1,735
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from operations, $m
  64
  201
  97
  120
  145
  174
  205
  240
  277
  316
  359
  404
  452
  502
  555
  610
  667
  727
  789
  854
  922
  992
  1,065
  1,140
  1,219
  1,301
  1,386
  1,474
  1,566
  1,662
  1,762
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -41
  -51
  -63
  -76
  -91
  -108
  -126
  -146
  -167
  -190
  -214
  -239
  -266
  -295
  -325
  -356
  -388
  -422
  -457
  -494
  -532
  -572
  -613
  -656
  -700
  -746
  -794
  -844
  -896
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -210
  -246
  -283
  -320
  -359
  -397
  -436
  -473
  -510
  -546
  -581
  -616
  -649
  -682
  -715
  -747
  -780
  -813
  -846
  -880
  -914
  -950
  -987
  -1,026
  -1,067
  -1,109
  -1,154
  -1,200
  -1,250
  -1,302
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -285
  -242
  -287
  -334
  -383
  -435
  -488
  -544
  -599
  -656
  -713
  -771
  -830
  -888
  -948
  -1,010
  -1,072
  -1,136
  -1,201
  -1,268
  -1,337
  -1,408
  -1,482
  -1,559
  -1,639
  -1,723
  -1,809
  -1,900
  -1,994
  -2,094
  -2,198
Free cash flow, $m
  -221
  -41
  -190
  -214
  -238
  -261
  -283
  -304
  -322
  -339
  -354
  -367
  -378
  -387
  -394
  -400
  -405
  -409
  -412
  -414
  -415
  -417
  -418
  -419
  -420
  -422
  -423
  -426
  -428
  -432
  -436
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  132
  152
  174
  198
  221
  245
  269
  292
  315
  337
  359
  380
  401
  421
  441
  461
  481
  501
  522
  543
  564
  586
  609
  633
  658
  684
  712
  741
  771
  803
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  200
  24
  180
  203
  226
  248
  268
  287
  304
  320
  333
  344
  354
  362
  368
  373
  376
  379
  380
  381
  382
  382
  381
  381
  381
  381
  381
  381
  382
  384
  386
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  253
  156
  332
  377
  424
  469
  513
  556
  596
  635
  670
  703
  734
  763
  789
  814
  837
  860
  881
  903
  925
  946
  967
  990
  1,014
  1,039
  1,065
  1,093
  1,123
  1,155
  1,189
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  91
  -38
  -40
  -40
  -40
  -38
  -35
  -30
  -24
  -17
  -8
  2
  14
  27
  41
  56
  73
  90
  108
  127
  148
  169
  190
  213
  237
  261
  286
  312
  339
  367
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -190
  -123
  -142
  -164
  -186
  -208
  -230
  -252
  -274
  -295
  -316
  -336
  -356
  -376
  -395
  -414
  -433
  -451
  -470
  -490
  -509
  -529
  -550
  -572
  -594
  -617
  -642
  -668
  -695
  -723
  -754
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.0
  87.6
  79.1
  72.1
  66.3
  61.5
  57.3
  53.8
  50.8
  48.2
  46.0
  44.0
  42.3
  40.8
  39.4
  38.3
  37.2
  36.2
  35.4
  34.6
  33.9
  33.2
  32.7
  32.1
  31.6
  31.2
  30.8
  30.4
  30.0
  29.6

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (NasdaqGS:CTRE) operates independently of The Ensign Group, Inc. as of June 02, 2014.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CareTrust REIT (CTRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 39.9
Price to Sales 11.1
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 40.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -45.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 99.6%
Total Debt to Equity 99.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Equity 8.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 78.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.6%
Operating Margin 50%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 27.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Net Profit Margin 27.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 127.6%

CTRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CTRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $104 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CareTrust REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CareTrust REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CTRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for CTRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CareTrust REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CareTrust REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CTRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 40.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CTRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for CareTrust REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CareTrust REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CTRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CTRE are equal to 739.9%.

Life of production assets of 24 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CareTrust REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CTRE is equal to -15.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $452 million for CareTrust REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 67.776 million for CareTrust REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CareTrust REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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Stock chart of CTRE Financial statements of CTRE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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