Intrinsic value of CareTrust REIT - CTRE

Previous Close

$18.86

  Intrinsic Value

$1.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

  Value-price divergence*

+263%

Previous close

$18.86

 
Intrinsic value

$1.71

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+263%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CTRE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CTRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  41.89
  29.20
  26.78
  24.60
  22.64
  20.88
  19.29
  17.86
  16.57
  15.42
  14.38
  13.44
  12.59
  11.83
  11.15
  10.54
  9.98
  9.48
  9.04
  8.63
  8.27
  7.94
  7.65
  7.38
  7.14
  6.93
  6.74
  6.56
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
Revenue, $m
  105
  136
  172
  214
  263
  318
  379
  447
  521
  601
  687
  780
  878
  982
  1,091
  1,206
  1,327
  1,453
  1,584
  1,721
  1,863
  2,011
  2,165
  2,324
  2,490
  2,663
  2,842
  3,029
  3,223
  3,425
  3,635
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  53
  67
  84
  103
  124
  148
  174
  203
  234
  268
  304
  342
  383
  426
  470
  517
  567
  618
  671
  727
  784
  844
  907
  971
  1,039
  1,109
  1,181
  1,257
  1,336
  1,418
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
Total operating expenses, $m
  52
  64
  79
  96
  115
  136
  161
  187
  216
  248
  282
  318
  357
  398
  442
  486
  533
  584
  635
  689
  745
  802
  863
  926
  991
  1,059
  1,130
  1,202
  1,279
  1,359
  1,441
Operating income, $m
  53
  71
  93
  119
  148
  181
  218
  259
  304
  353
  405
  461
  521
  584
  650
  720
  793
  869
  949
  1,032
  1,118
  1,208
  1,301
  1,398
  1,499
  1,604
  1,713
  1,826
  1,944
  2,067
  2,195
EBITDA, $m
  85
  113
  146
  184
  228
  278
  334
  396
  463
  536
  615
  699
  789
  884
  983
  1,088
  1,198
  1,313
  1,433
  1,557
  1,687
  1,822
  1,962
  2,108
  2,260
  2,417
  2,581
  2,751
  2,928
  3,113
  3,305
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  25
  33
  42
  53
  65
  79
  94
  111
  130
  150
  171
  195
  219
  245
  273
  302
  332
  364
  397
  431
  467
  504
  543
  583
  624
  668
  713
  760
  809
  859
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  46
  61
  77
  96
  117
  140
  165
  193
  223
  255
  290
  326
  364
  405
  447
  491
  537
  585
  635
  687
  741
  797
  856
  917
  980
  1,045
  1,113
  1,184
  1,258
  1,335
Tax expense, $m
  0
  12
  16
  21
  26
  31
  38
  45
  52
  60
  69
  78
  88
  98
  109
  121
  133
  145
  158
  172
  186
  200
  215
  231
  247
  264
  282
  301
  320
  340
  360
Net income, $m
  29
  34
  44
  56
  70
  85
  102
  121
  141
  163
  187
  212
  238
  266
  295
  326
  359
  392
  427
  464
  502
  541
  582
  625
  669
  715
  763
  813
  865
  918
  975

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  925
  1,180
  1,496
  1,864
  2,285
  2,763
  3,295
  3,884
  4,528
  5,226
  5,977
  6,780
  7,634
  8,538
  9,490
  10,490
  11,537
  12,631
  13,772
  14,961
  16,199
  17,485
  18,822
  20,212
  21,656
  23,157
  24,717
  26,339
  28,027
  29,783
  31,612
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  917
  1,180
  1,496
  1,864
  2,285
  2,763
  3,295
  3,884
  4,528
  5,226
  5,977
  6,780
  7,634
  8,538
  9,490
  10,490
  11,537
  12,631
  13,772
  14,961
  16,199
  17,485
  18,822
  20,212
  21,656
  23,157
  24,717
  26,339
  28,027
  29,783
  31,612
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
Average production assets, $m
  770
  994
  1,261
  1,571
  1,926
  2,328
  2,778
  3,274
  3,816
  4,405
  5,038
  5,715
  6,434
  7,196
  7,998
  8,841
  9,724
  10,646
  11,608
  12,610
  13,653
  14,737
  15,864
  17,035
  18,252
  19,517
  20,832
  22,200
  23,622
  25,102
  26,644
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -88
  -98
  -109
  -121
  -133
  -145
  -158
  -172
  -186
  -201
  -216
  -232
  -249
  -266
  -284
  -303
  -322
  -343
  -364
Total debt, $m
  450
  586
  749
  939
  1,156
  1,402
  1,677
  1,981
  2,313
  2,674
  3,061
  3,476
  3,916
  4,383
  4,874
  5,390
  5,930
  6,495
  7,084
  7,697
  8,335
  8,999
  9,689
  10,406
  11,152
  11,926
  12,731
  13,568
  14,439
  15,345
  16,289
Total liabilities, $m
  473
  609
  772
  962
  1,179
  1,425
  1,700
  2,004
  2,336
  2,697
  3,084
  3,499
  3,939
  4,406
  4,897
  5,413
  5,953
  6,518
  7,107
  7,720
  8,358
  9,022
  9,712
  10,429
  11,175
  11,949
  12,754
  13,591
  14,462
  15,368
  16,312
Total equity, $m
  452
  571
  724
  902
  1,106
  1,337
  1,595
  1,880
  2,191
  2,529
  2,893
  3,282
  3,695
  4,132
  4,593
  5,077
  5,584
  6,113
  6,666
  7,241
  7,840
  8,463
  9,110
  9,783
  10,482
  11,208
  11,963
  12,748
  13,565
  14,415
  15,300
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  925
  1,180
  1,496
  1,864
  2,285
  2,762
  3,295
  3,884
  4,527
  5,226
  5,977
  6,781
  7,634
  8,538
  9,490
  10,490
  11,537
  12,631
  13,773
  14,961
  16,198
  17,485
  18,822
  20,212
  21,657
  23,157
  24,717
  26,339
  28,027
  29,783
  31,612
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.996
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  34
  44
  56
  70
  85
  102
  121
  141
  163
  187
  212
  238
  266
  295
  326
  359
  392
  427
  464
  502
  541
  582
  625
  669
  715
  763
  813
  865
  918
  975
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  41
  53
  65
  80
  97
  116
  136
  159
  184
  210
  238
  268
  300
  333
  368
  405
  444
  484
  525
  569
  614
  661
  710
  761
  813
  868
  925
  984
  1,046
  1,110
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  75
  97
  122
  150
  182
  218
  257
  300
  347
  396
  450
  506
  566
  629
  695
  764
  836
  911
  989
  1,071
  1,155
  1,243
  1,335
  1,430
  1,528
  1,631
  1,738
  1,849
  1,964
  2,085
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from operations, $m
  64
  78
  100
  126
  155
  188
  224
  264
  308
  355
  405
  459
  516
  576
  640
  706
  776
  848
  924
  1,003
  1,085
  1,170
  1,259
  1,351
  1,446
  1,546
  1,649
  1,756
  1,868
  1,985
  2,106
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -41
  -53
  -65
  -80
  -97
  -116
  -136
  -159
  -184
  -210
  -238
  -268
  -300
  -333
  -368
  -405
  -444
  -484
  -525
  -569
  -614
  -661
  -710
  -761
  -813
  -868
  -925
  -984
  -1,046
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -225
  -266
  -310
  -356
  -402
  -449
  -496
  -543
  -588
  -633
  -677
  -720
  -762
  -802
  -843
  -883
  -922
  -962
  -1,002
  -1,043
  -1,084
  -1,127
  -1,171
  -1,217
  -1,265
  -1,315
  -1,367
  -1,422
  -1,480
  -1,541
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -285
  -257
  -307
  -363
  -421
  -482
  -546
  -612
  -679
  -747
  -817
  -887
  -958
  -1,030
  -1,102
  -1,176
  -1,251
  -1,327
  -1,406
  -1,486
  -1,568
  -1,653
  -1,741
  -1,832
  -1,927
  -2,026
  -2,128
  -2,235
  -2,347
  -2,464
  -2,587
Free cash flow, $m
  -221
  -179
  -207
  -237
  -266
  -295
  -322
  -348
  -371
  -393
  -412
  -428
  -442
  -453
  -463
  -470
  -475
  -479
  -481
  -483
  -483
  -483
  -483
  -482
  -481
  -480
  -479
  -479
  -479
  -480
  -481
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  136
  163
  190
  218
  246
  275
  304
  332
  360
  388
  414
  441
  466
  491
  516
  540
  565
  589
  613
  638
  664
  690
  717
  745
  774
  805
  837
  871
  906
  944
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  200
  93
  109
  122
  134
  146
  156
  164
  170
  175
  177
  177
  175
  171
  165
  158
  148
  137
  125
  112
  97
  82
  65
  48
  30
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  253
  229
  272
  312
  352
  392
  431
  468
  502
  535
  565
  591
  616
  637
  656
  674
  688
  702
  714
  725
  735
  746
  755
  765
  775
  785
  805
  837
  871
  906
  944
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  50
  64
  75
  86
  97
  109
  120
  131
  142
  153
  164
  174
  184
  194
  204
  213
  223
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  283
  294
  306
  326
  358
  392
  426
  462
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -190
  -127
  -153
  -178
  -204
  -231
  -258
  -285
  -312
  -338
  -364
  -389
  -413
  -437
  -461
  -484
  -507
  -530
  -552
  -575
  -599
  -623
  -647
  -673
  -699
  -726
  -755
  -785
  -817
  -850
  -885
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -69
  -89
  -103
  -118
  -134
  -149
  -165
  -180
  -196
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -347
  -361
  -375
  -389
  -405
  -421
  -429
  -427
  -425
  -424
  -423
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -63
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -82
  -81
  -78
  -74
  -68
  -62
  -55
  -48
  -41
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -18
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.9
  86.9
  81.9
  77.7
  74.2
  71.2
  68.6
  66.4
  64.6
  63.0
  61.6
  60.4
  59.4
  58.6
  57.8
  57.2
  56.7
  56.3
  56.0
  55.7
  55.5
  55.3
  55.2
  55.2
  55.2
  55.2
  55.2
  55.2
  55.2
  55.2

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (NasdaqGS:CTRE) operates independently of The Ensign Group, Inc. as of June 02, 2014.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CareTrust REIT (CTRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.2
Price to Sales 11.6
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -45.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 99.6%
Total Debt to Equity 99.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Equity 8.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 78.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.3%
Operating Margin 50.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 27.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 27.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 127.6%

CTRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CTRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $105 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CareTrust REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CareTrust REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CTRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 29.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for CTRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CareTrust REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CareTrust REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CTRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CTRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for CareTrust REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CareTrust REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CTRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CTRE are equal to 732.9%.

Life of production assets of 24 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CareTrust REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CTRE is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $452 million for CareTrust REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.074 million for CareTrust REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CareTrust REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Stock chart of CTRE Financial statements of CTRE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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