Intrinsic value of CTS - CTS

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$20.70

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$20.70

 
Intrinsic value

$9.06

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CTS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.93
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.08
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  397
  436
  476
  518
  561
  607
  654
  703
  754
  807
  862
  919
  978
  1,040
  1,105
  1,172
  1,242
  1,315
  1,391
  1,470
  1,553
  1,639
  1,730
  1,824
  1,923
  2,026
  2,135
  2,248
  2,366
  2,490
  2,621
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  414
  452
  491
  532
  574
  618
  664
  712
  762
  813
  860
  916
  974
  1,034
  1,097
  1,163
  1,231
  1,302
  1,377
  1,454
  1,535
  1,620
  1,708
  1,801
  1,898
  1,999
  2,105
  2,216
  2,332
  2,454
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  334
  414
  452
  491
  532
  574
  618
  664
  712
  762
  813
  860
  916
  974
  1,034
  1,097
  1,163
  1,231
  1,302
  1,377
  1,454
  1,535
  1,620
  1,708
  1,801
  1,898
  1,999
  2,105
  2,216
  2,332
  2,454
Operating income, $m
  63
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  49
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  158
  167
EBITDA, $m
  82
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  109
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
Tax expense, $m
  23
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
Net income, $m
  34
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  518
  443
  484
  527
  571
  617
  665
  715
  767
  821
  877
  935
  995
  1,058
  1,124
  1,192
  1,263
  1,337
  1,415
  1,495
  1,580
  1,668
  1,760
  1,856
  1,956
  2,061
  2,172
  2,287
  2,407
  2,534
  2,666
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  404
  443
  484
  527
  571
  617
  665
  715
  767
  821
  877
  935
  995
  1,058
  1,124
  1,192
  1,263
  1,337
  1,415
  1,495
  1,580
  1,668
  1,760
  1,856
  1,956
  2,061
  2,172
  2,287
  2,407
  2,534
  2,666
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.983
  0.984
  0.983
  0.983
  0.982
  0.984
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.984
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
Average production assets, $m
  126
  138
  150
  164
  177
  192
  207
  222
  238
  255
  272
  290
  309
  329
  349
  370
  392
  415
  439
  465
  491
  518
  547
  576
  608
  640
  675
  710
  748
  787
  828
Working capital, $m
  118
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Total debt, $m
  90
  108
  129
  150
  171
  194
  218
  242
  268
  295
  322
  351
  381
  412
  444
  478
  513
  549
  587
  627
  669
  712
  758
  805
  854
  906
  961
  1,017
  1,077
  1,139
  1,204
Total liabilities, $m
  200
  218
  239
  260
  281
  304
  328
  352
  378
  405
  432
  461
  491
  522
  554
  588
  623
  659
  697
  737
  779
  822
  868
  915
  964
  1,016
  1,071
  1,127
  1,187
  1,249
  1,314
Total equity, $m
  318
  225
  245
  267
  289
  313
  337
  362
  389
  416
  444
  474
  505
  537
  570
  604
  640
  678
  717
  758
  801
  846
  892
  941
  992
  1,045
  1,101
  1,159
  1,220
  1,285
  1,352
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  518
  443
  484
  527
  570
  617
  665
  714
  767
  821
  876
  935
  996
  1,059
  1,124
  1,192
  1,263
  1,337
  1,414
  1,495
  1,580
  1,668
  1,760
  1,856
  1,956
  2,061
  2,172
  2,286
  2,407
  2,534
  2,666
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.283
  0.480
  0.520
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
Funds from operations, $m
  38
  35
  38
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  55
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  156
  165
  173
  182
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -81
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  29
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -38
  48
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -36
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  113
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  142
  9
  10
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  136
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CTS Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells a range of sensors, electronic components, and actuators primarily to original equipment manufacturers for the transportation, industrial, medical, information technology, defense and aerospace, and communications markets. It offers sensors and actuators used in passenger or consumer vehicles; electronic components used in infrastructure, information technology and other high-speed applications, switches, and potentiometers supplied to various markets; and fabricated piezoelectric materials and substrates used primarily in medical, industrial, defense and aerospace, and information technology markets. The company also designs and develops sensing technology for radio frequency measurement and control systems. CTS Corporation markets its products through its sales engineers, independent manufacturers' representatives, and distributors in China, Germany, Japan, Scotland, Singapore, India, Taiwan, the United States, the Czech Republic, and internationally. The company was founded in 1896 and is based in Lisle, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CTS (CTS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.9
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 110%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 114
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 28%
Total Debt to Equity 28.3%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 8.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 11.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
EBITDA Margin 19.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Operating Margin 15.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 40.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
Payout Ratio 14.7%

CTS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CTS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $397 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CTS. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CTS. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CTS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CTS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CTS, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CTS.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CTS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CTS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CTS.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CTS. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CTS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CTS are equal to 31.6%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CTS operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CTS is equal to 1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $318 million for CTS - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.383 million for CTS is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CTS at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CTS to Present at the ROTH Conference   [Feb-23-17 11:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Adds 64 PPR Model to 291 Series of Optical Encoders   [Feb-09-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [11:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS posts 4Q profit   [08:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ CTS Awarded Global Accelerator Pedal Module Program   [Dec-01-16 08:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-10-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Announces Third Quarter 2016 Results   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ L-3 to Grow Int'l Business with ANA Contract (LLL)   [Sep-22-16 12:19PM  at Investopedia]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-26-16 09:01AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS posts 2Q profit   [08:06AM  AP]
▶ CTS Announces Second Quarter 2016 Results   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS To Host Investor Day Conference in NYC on September 8   [Jul-25-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Introduces New Miniature Low Noise PLL Timing Modules   [Jun-09-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Announces Restructuring Plans   [Jun-03-16 04:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-19-16 11:59AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS posts 1Q profit   [08:12AM  AP]
▶ CTS Announces First Quarter 2016 Results   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-11-16 10:44AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS reports 4Q loss   [08:17AM  AP]
▶ Should You Buy Altra Industrial Motion Corp (AIMC)?   [Dec-10  11:29AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of CTS Financial statements of CTS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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