Intrinsic value of CTS - CTS

Previous Close

$21.75

  Intrinsic Value

$8.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

  Value-price divergence*

+37%

Previous close

$21.75

 
Intrinsic value

$8.96

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+37%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CTS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.93
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  397
  409
  423
  437
  453
  470
  488
  508
  529
  551
  574
  599
  626
  654
  683
  714
  747
  782
  819
  857
  898
  941
  986
  1,033
  1,083
  1,136
  1,191
  1,249
  1,310
  1,374
  1,442
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  389
  402
  416
  431
  447
  464
  482
  501
  522
  544
  561
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  732
  766
  803
  841
  881
  923
  967
  1,014
  1,063
  1,115
  1,169
  1,227
  1,287
  1,350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  334
  389
  402
  416
  431
  447
  464
  482
  501
  522
  544
  561
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  732
  766
  803
  841
  881
  923
  967
  1,014
  1,063
  1,115
  1,169
  1,227
  1,287
  1,350
Operating income, $m
  63
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
EBITDA, $m
  82
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
Tax expense, $m
  23
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Net income, $m
  34
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  518
  416
  430
  445
  461
  478
  497
  517
  538
  560
  584
  610
  636
  665
  695
  727
  760
  795
  833
  872
  913
  957
  1,003
  1,051
  1,102
  1,155
  1,211
  1,270
  1,333
  1,398
  1,467
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  404
  416
  430
  445
  461
  478
  497
  517
  538
  560
  584
  610
  636
  665
  695
  727
  760
  795
  833
  872
  913
  957
  1,003
  1,051
  1,102
  1,155
  1,211
  1,270
  1,333
  1,398
  1,467
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.983
  0.983
  0.984
  0.982
  0.983
  0.983
  0.982
  0.983
  0.983
  0.984
  0.983
  0.982
  0.984
  0.983
  0.983
  0.982
  0.983
  0.984
  0.983
  0.983
  0.984
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.984
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
Average production assets, $m
  126
  129
  134
  138
  143
  149
  154
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  359
  376
  395
  414
  434
  456
Working capital, $m
  118
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Total debt, $m
  90
  95
  102
  109
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
  233
  248
  265
  282
  301
  320
  340
  362
  384
  408
  433
  460
  487
  516
  547
  579
  613
Total liabilities, $m
  200
  205
  212
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  288
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  450
  472
  494
  518
  543
  570
  597
  626
  657
  689
  723
Total equity, $m
  318
  211
  218
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  533
  559
  586
  614
  644
  676
  709
  744
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  518
  416
  430
  445
  461
  479
  497
  517
  538
  560
  584
  610
  637
  665
  695
  726
  760
  795
  833
  872
  913
  957
  1,002
  1,051
  1,102
  1,156
  1,211
  1,270
  1,333
  1,398
  1,467
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.283
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  46
Funds from operations, $m
  38
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -81
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -38
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -36
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  113
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  128
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  16
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  123
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  9
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
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CTS Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells a range of sensors, electronic components, and actuators primarily to original equipment manufacturers for the transportation, industrial, medical, information technology, defense and aerospace, and communications markets. It offers sensors and actuators used in passenger or consumer vehicles; electronic components used in infrastructure, information technology and other high-speed applications, switches, and potentiometers supplied to various markets; and fabricated piezoelectric materials and substrates used primarily in medical, industrial, defense and aerospace, and information technology markets. The company also designs and develops sensing technology for radio frequency measurement and control systems. CTS Corporation markets its products through its sales engineers, independent manufacturers' representatives, and distributors in China, Germany, Japan, Scotland, Singapore, India, Taiwan, the United States, the Czech Republic, and internationally. The company was founded in 1896 and is based in Lisle, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CTS (CTS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 110%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 114
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 28%
Total Debt to Equity 28.3%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 8.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 11.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
EBITDA Margin 19.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Operating Margin 15.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 40.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
Payout Ratio 14.7%

CTS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CTS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $397 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CTS. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CTS. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CTS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CTS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CTS, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CTS.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CTS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CTS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CTS.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CTS. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CTS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CTS are equal to 31.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CTS operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CTS is equal to 1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $318 million for CTS - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.608 million for CTS is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CTS at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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TEL TE Connectivit 77.71 81.66  hold
ROK Rockwell Autom 161.38 196.40  hold
DLPH Delphi Automot 92.27 96.04  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to CTS Corp. : August 11, 2017   [Aug-11-17 05:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CTS: Second quarter earnings were above expectations   [Jul-31-17 01:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ CTS posts 2Q profit   [01:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ CTS Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:CTS) : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares a Dividend   [May-18-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS RF Sensor Technology Nominated for AMA Innovation Award   [May-04-17 06:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CTS Corp. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 03:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CTS to Present at Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference   [Apr-27-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS posts 1Q profit   [09:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ CTS Announces First Quarter 2017 Results   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS to Present at the ROTH Conference   [Feb-23-17 11:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Adds 64 PPR Model to 291 Series of Optical Encoders   [Feb-09-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [11:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS posts 4Q profit   [08:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ CTS Awarded Global Accelerator Pedal Module Program   [Dec-01-16 08:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-10-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Announces Third Quarter 2016 Results   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ L-3 to Grow Int'l Business with ANA Contract (LLL)   [Sep-22-16 12:19PM  at Investopedia]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-26-16 09:01AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS posts 2Q profit   [08:06AM  AP]
▶ CTS Announces Second Quarter 2016 Results   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS To Host Investor Day Conference in NYC on September 8   [Jul-25-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Introduces New Miniature Low Noise PLL Timing Modules   [Jun-09-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Announces Restructuring Plans   [Jun-03-16 04:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ CTS Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-19-16 11:59AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of CTS Financial statements of CTS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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