Intrinsic value of Cubic - CUB

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$50.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$50.75

 
Intrinsic value

$26.98

 
Up/down potential

-47%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CUB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.17
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  1,462
  1,560
  1,662
  1,768
  1,878
  1,993
  2,113
  2,237
  2,367
  2,503
  2,645
  2,793
  2,947
  3,109
  3,278
  3,454
  3,639
  3,832
  4,035
  4,247
  4,469
  4,702
  4,945
  5,201
  5,469
  5,750
  6,044
  6,353
  6,677
  7,017
  7,373
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,475
  1,568
  1,666
  1,767
  1,873
  1,983
  2,097
  2,217
  2,341
  2,472
  2,567
  2,709
  2,857
  3,013
  3,175
  3,345
  3,523
  3,709
  3,904
  4,108
  4,322
  4,546
  4,781
  5,027
  5,285
  5,556
  5,840
  6,137
  6,450
  6,777
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,454
  1,475
  1,568
  1,666
  1,767
  1,873
  1,983
  2,097
  2,217
  2,341
  2,472
  2,567
  2,709
  2,857
  3,013
  3,175
  3,345
  3,523
  3,709
  3,904
  4,108
  4,322
  4,546
  4,781
  5,027
  5,285
  5,556
  5,840
  6,137
  6,450
  6,777
Operating income, $m
  7
  85
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  173
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
  420
  442
  465
  489
  514
  540
  567
  596
EBITDA, $m
  52
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  280
  295
  311
  327
  345
  363
  382
  402
  423
  445
  468
  492
  517
  544
  572
  601
  631
  663
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  -7
  77
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  123
  131
  140
  150
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  313
  328
  345
  362
  380
  399
  418
  439
  461
  484
  508
Tax expense, $m
  -9
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
Net income, $m
  2
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  90
  96
  103
  109
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  336
  353
  371

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  210
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,504
  1,380
  1,471
  1,564
  1,662
  1,764
  1,870
  1,980
  2,095
  2,215
  2,340
  2,471
  2,608
  2,751
  2,900
  3,057
  3,220
  3,391
  3,571
  3,758
  3,955
  4,161
  4,377
  4,603
  4,840
  5,088
  5,349
  5,622
  5,909
  6,210
  6,525
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,294
  1,380
  1,471
  1,564
  1,662
  1,764
  1,870
  1,980
  2,095
  2,215
  2,340
  2,471
  2,608
  2,751
  2,900
  3,057
  3,220
  3,391
  3,571
  3,758
  3,955
  4,161
  4,377
  4,603
  4,840
  5,088
  5,349
  5,622
  5,909
  6,210
  6,525
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
Average production assets, $m
  136
  145
  155
  164
  175
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  437
  460
  484
  509
  535
  562
  591
  621
  653
  686
Working capital, $m
  263
  312
  332
  354
  376
  399
  423
  447
  473
  501
  529
  559
  589
  622
  656
  691
  728
  766
  807
  849
  894
  940
  989
  1,040
  1,094
  1,150
  1,209
  1,271
  1,335
  1,403
  1,475
Total debt, $m
  441
  272
  314
  358
  403
  451
  500
  552
  605
  661
  720
  781
  845
  912
  982
  1,055
  1,131
  1,211
  1,294
  1,382
  1,474
  1,570
  1,671
  1,776
  1,887
  2,003
  2,125
  2,253
  2,386
  2,527
  2,674
Total liabilities, $m
  815
  645
  687
  731
  776
  824
  873
  925
  978
  1,034
  1,093
  1,154
  1,218
  1,285
  1,355
  1,428
  1,504
  1,584
  1,667
  1,755
  1,847
  1,943
  2,044
  2,149
  2,260
  2,376
  2,498
  2,626
  2,759
  2,900
  3,047
Total equity, $m
  690
  736
  784
  834
  886
  940
  996
  1,055
  1,117
  1,181
  1,247
  1,317
  1,390
  1,466
  1,546
  1,629
  1,716
  1,808
  1,903
  2,003
  2,108
  2,218
  2,333
  2,453
  2,580
  2,712
  2,851
  2,997
  3,149
  3,310
  3,478
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,505
  1,381
  1,471
  1,565
  1,662
  1,764
  1,869
  1,980
  2,095
  2,215
  2,340
  2,471
  2,608
  2,751
  2,901
  3,057
  3,220
  3,392
  3,570
  3,758
  3,955
  4,161
  4,377
  4,602
  4,840
  5,088
  5,349
  5,623
  5,908
  6,210
  6,525
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.639
  0.370
  0.400
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  90
  96
  103
  109
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  336
  353
  371
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Funds from operations, $m
  55
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  174
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  379
  397
  417
  438
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Cash from operations, $m
  45
  79
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  287
  302
  317
  333
  349
  366
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -10
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -261
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
Free cash flow, $m
  -216
  56
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  269
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  255
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  240
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  97
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  378
  397
  417
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  66
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  51
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
Discount rate, %
 
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  48
  59
  58
  57
  55
  53
  50
  47
  44
  41
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cubic Corporation designs, develops, and sells products mass transit fare collection systems, air and ground combat training systems, and secure communications products for various federal and regional government agencies in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Cubic Transportation Systems (CTS), Cubic Global Defense Services (CGD Services), and Cubic Global Defense Systems (CGD Systems). The CTS segment provides fare collection and revenue management devices, software, systems and multiagency, multimodal integration technologies, and operational services for transportation authorities and operators. It also offers BPO services, such as card and payment media management, central systems and application support, retail network management, customer call centers, and financial clearing and settlement support services. The CGD Services segment offers support services, including live, virtual, and constructive training; real-world mission rehearsal exercises; professional military education; intelligence support, information technology, information assurance, and related cyber support; military doctrine development; consequence management, infrastructure protection, and force protection; support services for field operations, force deployment and redeployment, and logistics; and services for military and national intelligence communities, as well as for special operations, law enforcement, and homeland security clients. The CGD Systems segment provides military range instrumentation, laser based training, virtual simulation, and game-based synthetic training systems, as well as live-fire range design and maintenance services; and communications products, including data links, power amplifiers, avionics systems, modular networking and baseband communications equipment, and cross domain products to address multi-level security requirements. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cubic (CUB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 684.9
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 105.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 29.1%
Total Debt to Equity 63.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
EBITDA Margin 2.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Operating Margin 0.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin 0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 128.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.7%
Payout Ratio 350%

CUB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CUB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1462 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cubic. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cubic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CUB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for CUB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cubic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cubic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CUB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CUB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cubic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cubic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CUB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CUB are equal to 9.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cubic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CUB is equal to 20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $690 million for Cubic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.273 million for Cubic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cubic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cubic Corporation Announces Semiannual Dividend   [Feb-20-17 12:36PM  Business Wire]
▶ Cubic reports 1Q loss   [07:13PM  AP]
▶ Apple, Adventist, Cubic hiring hundreds of workers in Orlando   [Jan-04-17 01:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Third Avenue Management Comments on Cubic Corp   [Dec-19-16 04:51PM  Gurufocus]
▶ Is Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 09:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Cubic Completes Acquisition of Vocality International   [Nov-30-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Cubic Corp. Falls Short on Earnings   [03:40PM  24/7 Wall St.]
Stock chart of CUB Financial statements of CUB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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