Intrinsic value of Barracuda Networks - CUDA

Previous Close

$27.61

  Intrinsic Value

$15.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

Previous close

$27.61

 
Intrinsic value

$15.23

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CUDA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.31
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  353
  377
  402
  428
  455
  483
  512
  543
  575
  608
  642
  679
  716
  756
  797
  840
  885
  933
  982
  1,034
  1,088
  1,145
  1,204
  1,267
  1,332
  1,400
  1,472
  1,548
  1,627
  1,710
  1,796
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  315
  331
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  276
  283
  290
  297
  304
  312
  320
  328
  336
  344
  353
  362
  371
  380
  390
  399
  409
  420
  430
  441
  452
  463
  475
  487
  499
  511
  524
  537
  550
  564
Total operating expenses, $m
  331
  352
  364
  376
  388
  400
  413
  427
  441
  455
  469
  478
  494
  510
  527
  545
  562
  581
  601
  620
  641
  663
  685
  708
  732
  757
  782
  809
  837
  865
  895
Operating income, $m
  22
  25
  38
  52
  67
  83
  99
  116
  134
  153
  173
  201
  223
  246
  270
  296
  323
  352
  382
  413
  447
  482
  519
  559
  600
  644
  690
  739
  790
  844
  901
EBITDA, $m
  38
  40
  54
  69
  84
  100
  117
  135
  154
  173
  194
  216
  239
  263
  288
  315
  343
  372
  403
  436
  471
  507
  546
  587
  630
  675
  723
  773
  826
  882
  941
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  25
  45
  59
  73
  88
  104
  120
  137
  155
  174
  201
  223
  245
  268
  293
  319
  347
  376
  406
  438
  472
  508
  546
  586
  628
  673
  720
  769
  822
  877
Tax expense, $m
  12
  7
  12
  16
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  94
  101
  110
  118
  128
  137
  147
  158
  170
  182
  194
  208
  222
  237
Net income, $m
  10
  18
  33
  43
  53
  64
  76
  88
  100
  113
  127
  147
  162
  179
  196
  214
  233
  253
  274
  296
  320
  345
  371
  399
  428
  459
  491
  525
  562
  600
  640

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  465
  283
  302
  321
  342
  363
  385
  408
  431
  456
  482
  509
  538
  567
  598
  631
  665
  700
  737
  776
  817
  859
  904
  951
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
  1,162
  1,221
  1,283
  1,349
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  265
  283
  302
  321
  342
  363
  385
  408
  431
  456
  482
  509
  538
  567
  598
  631
  665
  700
  737
  776
  817
  859
  904
  951
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
  1,162
  1,221
  1,283
  1,349
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.332
  1.332
  1.331
  1.333
  1.330
  1.331
  1.330
  1.331
  1.334
  1.333
  1.332
  1.334
  1.331
  1.333
  1.333
  1.331
  1.331
  1.333
  1.332
  1.332
  1.332
  1.333
  1.332
  1.332
  1.332
  1.332
  1.332
  1.332
  1.333
  1.333
  1.331
Average production assets, $m
  67
  71
  76
  80
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  185
  194
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  277
  291
  306
  321
  338
Working capital, $m
  13
  -195
  -208
  -222
  -236
  -250
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -352
  -371
  -392
  -413
  -435
  -459
  -483
  -509
  -536
  -564
  -593
  -624
  -656
  -690
  -725
  -763
  -802
  -843
  -886
  -931
Total debt, $m
  4
  -200
  -183
  -166
  -148
  -129
  -109
  -88
  -67
  -44
  -21
  4
  29
  56
  84
  113
  143
  175
  209
  244
  280
  319
  359
  401
  445
  491
  540
  591
  644
  700
  759
Total liabilities, $m
  458
  255
  272
  289
  307
  326
  346
  367
  388
  411
  434
  459
  484
  511
  539
  568
  598
  630
  664
  699
  735
  774
  814
  856
  900
  946
  995
  1,046
  1,099
  1,155
  1,214
Total equity, $m
  6
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  464
  283
  302
  321
  341
  362
  384
  408
  431
  457
  482
  510
  538
  568
  599
  631
  664
  700
  738
  777
  817
  860
  904
  951
  1,000
  1,051
  1,106
  1,162
  1,221
  1,283
  1,349
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.667
  -7.080
  -6.080
  -5.160
  -4.320
  -3.550
  -2.830
  -2.160
  -1.550
  -0.970
  -0.430
  0.070
  0.540
  0.980
  1.400
  1.790
  2.150
  2.500
  2.830
  3.140
  3.430
  3.710
  3.970
  4.220
  4.450
  4.670
  4.880
  5.080
  5.270
  5.450
  5.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.732
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  18
  33
  43
  53
  64
  76
  88
  100
  113
  127
  147
  162
  179
  196
  214
  233
  253
  274
  296
  320
  345
  371
  399
  428
  459
  491
  525
  562
  600
  640
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
Funds from operations, $m
  72
  33
  49
  59
  70
  82
  94
  107
  120
  134
  149
  162
  178
  195
  213
  232
  252
  274
  296
  319
  344
  370
  398
  427
  457
  490
  524
  560
  598
  638
  680
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from operations, $m
  65
  46
  62
  73
  84
  96
  109
  122
  136
  151
  166
  181
  198
  216
  235
  255
  276
  298
  321
  346
  372
  400
  428
  459
  491
  525
  561
  599
  639
  681
  725
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  34
  49
  59
  70
  81
  93
  105
  118
  132
  146
  160
  176
  193
  210
  229
  249
  270
  292
  315
  339
  365
  392
  421
  451
  483
  516
  552
  589
  629
  671
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -200
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  0
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  34
  66
  77
  88
  100
  113
  126
  140
  154
  170
  184
  201
  219
  238
  258
  279
  302
  325
  350
  376
  403
  432
  463
  495
  529
  565
  603
  643
  685
  729
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -218
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  196
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  11
  64
  75
  86
  98
  110
  124
  137
  152
  167
  181
  198
  216
  235
  255
  276
  298
  321
  346
  372
  399
  428
  458
  490
  524
  560
  597
  637
  679
  723
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  11
  58
  65
  71
  76
  80
  84
  86
  87
  88
  86
  85
  82
  79
  75
  70
  65
  59
  53
  47
  41
  35
  30
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Barracuda Networks, Inc. designs and delivers security and data protection solutions. The Company offers cloud-enabled solutions that enable customers to address security threats, manage network performance, and protect and store their data. Its solutions are designed to manage information technology operations for its customers. Its security solutions include Barracuda Email Security, The Barracuda Web Security Gateway, Barracuda NextGen Firewalls, The Barracuda Web Application Firewall, The Barracuda Load Balancer ADC and The Barracuda SSL VPN. Its data protection solutions provide solutions for on-premises and cloud-based archiving and backup. Its data protection solutions include Barracuda Backup, Barracuda Message Archiver and CudaSign. Its solution suites combine its security and data protection offerings into services designed for cloud platforms and managed services environments. Its solution suites include Barracuda Essentials for Office 365 and Intronis ECHOplatform.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Barracuda Networks (CUDA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 146.1
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 243.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 50
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 66.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Total Capital -111.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 96.8%
Return On Equity -76.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 54.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -387.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CUDA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CUDA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $353 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Barracuda Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Barracuda Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CUDA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CUDA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Barracuda Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Barracuda Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CUDA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $269 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CUDA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Barracuda Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Barracuda Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CUDA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CUDA are equal to 18.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Barracuda Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CUDA is equal to -51.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6 million for Barracuda Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.293 million for Barracuda Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Barracuda Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Company News For Nov 28, 2017   [08:37AM  Zacks]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Private Equity Firm Thoma Bravo Snaps Up Barracuda Networks   [04:18PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Barracuda to Go Private in Sale to Thoma Bravo   [11:26AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Best-In-Class NasdaqCM Growth Stocks   [Nov-14-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Barracuda Networks acquires cloud archiving startup   [Nov-08-17 06:11PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Barracuda Acquires Sonian Inc.   [04:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Company News For Oct 12, 2017   [Oct-12-17 09:59AM  Zacks]
▶ Bears Pounce On Barracuda, Stock Falls On Guidance, Investments   [Oct-11-17 04:31PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Company News For Oct 11, 2017   [09:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Barracuda Networks Quarterly Earnings In Line, Stock Falls   [Oct-10-17 05:09PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Palo Alto Pops But Symantec, Qualys Fall On Analyst's Note   [04:55PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Barracuda meets 2Q profit forecasts   [04:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Closing Bell: LIVE MARKETS BLOG   [04:03PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Trian to Contest P&G Vote: LIVE MARKETS BLOG   [12:45PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Earnings Calendar: LIVE MARKETS BLOG   [08:17AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Barracuda Amplifies MSP Focus, Unveils New Brand   [Sep-13-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Analysts Clash On Palo Alto Networks Inc.   [Sep-06-17 01:30PM  Forbes]
Financial statements of CUDA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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