Intrinsic value of Barracuda Networks - CUDA

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$22.48

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CUDA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.31
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  353
  356
  394
  434
  476
  519
  564
  611
  660
  711
  764
  819
  876
  936
  998
  1,062
  1,129
  1,198
  1,271
  1,346
  1,425
  1,507
  1,593
  1,683
  1,776
  1,874
  1,976
  2,083
  2,195
  2,312
  2,434
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  356
  394
  433
  474
  516
  561
  607
  655
  705
  757
  804
  860
  918
  979
  1,042
  1,107
  1,176
  1,247
  1,321
  1,398
  1,479
  1,563
  1,651
  1,743
  1,839
  1,939
  2,044
  2,153
  2,268
  2,388
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  331
  356
  394
  433
  474
  516
  561
  607
  655
  705
  757
  804
  860
  918
  979
  1,042
  1,107
  1,176
  1,247
  1,321
  1,398
  1,479
  1,563
  1,651
  1,743
  1,839
  1,939
  2,044
  2,153
  2,268
  2,388
Operating income, $m
  22
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
EBITDA, $m
  38
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  0
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Tax expense, $m
  12
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Net income, $m
  10
  0
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  465
  295
  326
  359
  394
  430
  467
  506
  547
  589
  633
  678
  726
  775
  826
  879
  934
  992
  1,052
  1,115
  1,180
  1,248
  1,319
  1,393
  1,470
  1,551
  1,636
  1,724
  1,817
  1,914
  2,015
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  265
  295
  326
  359
  394
  430
  467
  506
  547
  589
  633
  678
  726
  775
  826
  879
  934
  992
  1,052
  1,115
  1,180
  1,248
  1,319
  1,393
  1,470
  1,551
  1,636
  1,724
  1,817
  1,914
  2,015
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.332
  1.207
  1.209
  1.209
  1.208
  1.207
  1.208
  1.208
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.208
  1.207
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.209
  1.208
  1.208
  1.207
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
Average production assets, $m
  67
  60
  67
  73
  80
  88
  95
  103
  112
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  179
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  411
Working capital, $m
  13
  -218
  -242
  -266
  -292
  -318
  -346
  -375
  -405
  -436
  -469
  -502
  -537
  -574
  -612
  -651
  -692
  -735
  -779
  -825
  -874
  -924
  -977
  -1,032
  -1,089
  -1,149
  -1,211
  -1,277
  -1,345
  -1,417
  -1,492
Total debt, $m
  4
  -183
  -154
  -125
  -94
  -61
  -28
  8
  44
  82
  121
  162
  205
  249
  295
  343
  393
  445
  499
  555
  614
  675
  739
  806
  875
  948
  1,024
  1,104
  1,187
  1,274
  1,366
Total liabilities, $m
  458
  265
  294
  323
  354
  387
  420
  456
  492
  530
  569
  610
  653
  697
  743
  791
  841
  893
  947
  1,003
  1,062
  1,123
  1,187
  1,254
  1,323
  1,396
  1,472
  1,552
  1,635
  1,722
  1,814
Total equity, $m
  6
  29
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  77
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  172
  182
  191
  202
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  464
  294
  327
  359
  393
  430
  467
  507
  547
  589
  632
  678
  726
  774
  826
  879
  934
  992
  1,052
  1,114
  1,180
  1,248
  1,319
  1,393
  1,470
  1,551
  1,636
  1,724
  1,817
  1,913
  2,016
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.667
  -6.190
  -4.730
  -3.470
  -2.380
  -1.430
  -0.590
  0.150
  0.810
  1.390
  1.920
  2.390
  2.830
  3.220
  3.580
  3.900
  4.210
  4.480
  4.740
  4.980
  5.200
  5.410
  5.600
  5.780
  5.950
  6.110
  6.260
  6.400
  6.530
  6.660
  6.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.732
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  0
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
Funds from operations, $m
  72
  14
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
Cash from operations, $m
  65
  53
  43
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  40
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -187
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  21
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  -146
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -216
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  155
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  55
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  70
  72
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
Discount rate, %
 
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  49
  47
  45
  43
  40
  38
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Barracuda Networks, Inc. designs and delivers security and data protection solutions. The company offers cloud-enabled solutions that enable customers address security threats, improve network performance, and protect and store their data. It provides various security solutions, including Barracuda Email Security, an email security service with spam and virus blocking, anti-phishing, fraud detection, advanced threat detection, denial-of-service prevention, email continuity, and encryption and policy management; and Barracuda Web Security Gateway, a solution to protect users from Web-based threats. The company’s security solutions also comprise Barracuda NextGen Firewalls to secure the network and optimize traffic flows; Barracuda Web Application Firewall to protect Web applications and websites from data breaches and downtime; and Barracuda Load Balancer ADC to optimize application performance, availability, and security, as well as various remote access solutions. In addition, it offers data protection solutions, such as Barracuda Backup, a backup solution; Barracuda Message Archiver, a data archival solution; and CudaSign, an eSignature platform. The company sells its appliances, services, and software products to education, government, financial services, healthcare, professional services, telecommunications, retail, and manufacturing industries through its sales personnel, distribution partners, and value added resellers in approximately 100 countries. Barracuda Networks, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Campbell, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Barracuda Networks (CUDA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 118.9
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 198.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 50
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 66.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Total Capital -111.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 96.8%
Return On Equity -76.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 54.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -387.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CUDA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CUDA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $320 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Barracuda Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Barracuda Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CUDA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for CUDA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Barracuda Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Barracuda Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CUDA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CUDA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Barracuda Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Barracuda Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CUDA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CUDA are equal to 16.9%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Barracuda Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CUDA is equal to -61.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-32 million for Barracuda Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.905 million for Barracuda Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Barracuda Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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Stock chart of CUDA Financial statements of CUDA Annual reports of CUDA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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