Intrinsic value of Covanta Holding - CVA

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$13.85

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.28
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  1,699
  1,755
  1,816
  1,882
  1,953
  2,028
  2,109
  2,196
  2,288
  2,385
  2,489
  2,599
  2,715
  2,837
  2,967
  3,104
  3,248
  3,400
  3,561
  3,730
  3,908
  4,095
  4,292
  4,500
  4,718
  4,947
  5,189
  5,442
  5,709
  5,989
  6,284
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,640
  1,696
  1,756
  1,821
  1,891
  1,965
  2,044
  2,129
  2,218
  2,313
  2,384
  2,490
  2,603
  2,721
  2,847
  2,979
  3,119
  3,266
  3,421
  3,584
  3,756
  3,937
  4,127
  4,327
  4,538
  4,759
  4,992
  5,236
  5,494
  5,764
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,590
  1,640
  1,696
  1,756
  1,821
  1,891
  1,965
  2,044
  2,129
  2,218
  2,313
  2,384
  2,490
  2,603
  2,721
  2,847
  2,979
  3,119
  3,266
  3,421
  3,584
  3,756
  3,937
  4,127
  4,327
  4,538
  4,759
  4,992
  5,236
  5,494
  5,764
Operating income, $m
  109
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  152
  159
  167
  176
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323
  339
  355
  372
  391
  410
  429
  450
  473
  496
  520
EBITDA, $m
  316
  209
  216
  224
  233
  242
  251
  262
  273
  284
  297
  310
  324
  338
  354
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
  466
  488
  512
  536
  562
  590
  618
  649
  680
  714
  749
Interest expense (income), $m
  150
  91
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  190
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  382
  403
  425
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  31
  63
  64
  65
  66
  67
  69
  70
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
Tax expense, $m
  22
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
Net income, $m
  -4
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  46
  47
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,284
  4,333
  4,484
  4,646
  4,821
  5,008
  5,208
  5,422
  5,649
  5,890
  6,146
  6,417
  6,703
  7,006
  7,326
  7,664
  8,020
  8,396
  8,792
  9,209
  9,649
  10,111
  10,598
  11,110
  11,649
  12,215
  12,811
  13,438
  14,096
  14,789
  15,516
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,200
  4,333
  4,484
  4,646
  4,821
  5,008
  5,208
  5,422
  5,649
  5,890
  6,146
  6,417
  6,703
  7,006
  7,326
  7,664
  8,020
  8,396
  8,792
  9,209
  9,649
  10,111
  10,598
  11,110
  11,649
  12,215
  12,811
  13,438
  14,096
  14,789
  15,516
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
Average production assets, $m
  3,167
  319
  331
  342
  355
  369
  384
  400
  416
  434
  453
  473
  494
  516
  540
  565
  591
  619
  648
  679
  711
  745
  781
  819
  859
  900
  944
  990
  1,039
  1,090
  1,144
Working capital, $m
  126
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  258
  270
Total debt, $m
  2,635
  2,723
  2,858
  3,005
  3,162
  3,331
  3,511
  3,703
  3,907
  4,124
  4,354
  4,598
  4,856
  5,128
  5,417
  5,721
  6,041
  6,379
  6,736
  7,111
  7,507
  7,923
  8,361
  8,822
  9,307
  9,817
  10,353
  10,917
  11,510
  12,133
  12,787
Total liabilities, $m
  3,815
  3,900
  4,035
  4,182
  4,339
  4,508
  4,688
  4,880
  5,084
  5,301
  5,531
  5,775
  6,033
  6,305
  6,594
  6,898
  7,218
  7,556
  7,913
  8,288
  8,684
  9,100
  9,538
  9,999
  10,484
  10,994
  11,530
  12,094
  12,687
  13,310
  13,964
Total equity, $m
  469
  433
  448
  465
  482
  501
  521
  542
  565
  589
  615
  642
  670
  701
  733
  766
  802
  840
  879
  921
  965
  1,011
  1,060
  1,111
  1,165
  1,222
  1,281
  1,344
  1,410
  1,479
  1,552
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,284
  4,333
  4,483
  4,647
  4,821
  5,009
  5,209
  5,422
  5,649
  5,890
  6,146
  6,417
  6,703
  7,006
  7,327
  7,664
  8,020
  8,396
  8,792
  9,209
  9,649
  10,111
  10,598
  11,110
  11,649
  12,216
  12,811
  13,438
  14,097
  14,789
  15,516
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.618
  6.280
  6.380
  6.470
  6.560
  6.650
  6.740
  6.830
  6.920
  7.000
  7.080
  7.170
  7.240
  7.320
  7.390
  7.460
  7.530
  7.600
  7.660
  7.720
  7.780
  7.840
  7.890
  7.940
  7.990
  8.040
  8.080
  8.120
  8.170
  8.200
  8.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.092
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  46
  47
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  207
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
Funds from operations, $m
  327
  112
  114
  117
  120
  124
  127
  131
  135
  139
  144
  140
  145
  151
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  262
  274
  286
  298
Change in working capital, $m
  45
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  282
  97
  112
  114
  117
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  139
  136
  140
  145
  151
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  262
  274
  286
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
New CAPEX, $m
  -359
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -254
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  25
  37
  36
  36
  36
  35
  35
  34
  34
  34
  25
  25
  24
  24
  23
  23
  22
  22
  21
  21
  20
  20
  19
  19
  18
  17
  16
  16
  15
  14
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -60
  119
  135
  146
  157
  169
  180
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  485
  510
  536
  564
  593
  623
  655
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  139
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  91
  119
  135
  146
  157
  169
  180
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  485
  510
  536
  564
  593
  623
  655
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  119
  144
  172
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  251
  264
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  378
  397
  416
  437
  458
  480
  503
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
  669
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  169
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  183
  157
  166
  176
  185
  195
  206
  216
  227
  238
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  429
  450
  471
  494
  518
  543
  569
  596
Discount rate, %
 
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.83
  16.62
  17.45
  18.32
  19.24
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.78
  27.07
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.55
  36.27
  38.09
  39.99
  41.99
  44.09
  46.29
  48.61
  51.04
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  162
  123
  113
  103
  92
  81
  70
  60
  50
  41
  32
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Covanta Holding Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides waste and energy services to municipal entities primarily in the United States and Canada. The company owns and operates infrastructure for the conversion of waste to energy. It is also involved in related waste transport and disposal, and other renewable energy production businesses. The company disposes waste and generates electricity and/or steam; and sells metal recovered during the energy-from-waste process. It owns and operates 45 energy-from-waste facilities; 11 additional energy generation facilities, including wood biomass and hydroelectric renewable energy production facilities in North America. Covanta Holding Corporation also owns and operates 18 transfer stations, 12 environmental services facilities, 1 regional metals recycling facility, and 4 landfills. The company was formerly known as Danielson Holding Corporation and changed its name to Covanta Holding Corporation in September 2005. Covanta Holding Corporation was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Covanta Holding (CVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -450.1
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -23.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 555.2%
Total Debt to Equity 561.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity -0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
EBITDA Margin 21.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Net Profit Margin -0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 157.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 277.4%
Payout Ratio -3275%

CVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1699 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Covanta Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Covanta Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.4%, whose default value for CVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Covanta Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Covanta Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Covanta Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Covanta Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVA are equal to 18.2%.

Life of production assets of 3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Covanta Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVA is equal to 4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $472 million for Covanta Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130 million for Covanta Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Covanta Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-04-17 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Covanta Holding Corp. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 03:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Covanta reports 1Q loss   [Apr-25-17 05:01PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Mar-02-17 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Six 6% Yields (With 60% Upside, Too)   [Jan-27-17 08:47AM  at Forbes]
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▶ Is Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-20-16 01:01PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Covanta Appoints Vice President of Investor Relations   [Dec-16-16 04:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Dec-08-16 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Highest Growth Stocks in the Market Today   [Nov-11-16 09:41AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Covanta Completes Exchange of China Assets for Cash   [Oct-03-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-22-16 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Covanta Holding Corporation to Present at Conferences   [Sep-06-16 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of CVA Financial statements of CVA Annual reports of CVA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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