Intrinsic value of Calavo Growers - CVGW

Previous Close

$73.45

  Intrinsic Value

$96.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+32%

  Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Previous close

$73.45

 
Intrinsic value

$96.96

 
Up/down potential

+32%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+5000%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVGW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.22
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  936
  1,036
  1,141
  1,251
  1,365
  1,485
  1,609
  1,738
  1,872
  2,012
  2,157
  2,308
  2,464
  2,627
  2,797
  2,973
  3,157
  3,348
  3,547
  3,755
  3,971
  4,197
  4,433
  4,680
  4,938
  5,207
  5,489
  5,783
  6,091
  6,414
  6,752
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  813
  895
  981
  1,071
  1,164
  1,262
  1,363
  1,468
  1,577
  1,691
  1,807
  1,930
  2,057
  2,190
  2,328
  2,472
  2,621
  2,777
  2,940
  3,110
  3,287
  3,472
  3,665
  3,866
  4,077
  4,298
  4,529
  4,770
  5,023
  5,287
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  148
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  199
  203
  209
  214
  219
  225
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  280
  287
  295
  302
Total operating expenses, $m
  875
  961
  1,046
  1,136
  1,230
  1,327
  1,429
  1,534
  1,643
  1,757
  1,875
  1,996
  2,124
  2,256
  2,393
  2,537
  2,686
  2,840
  3,002
  3,170
  3,346
  3,529
  3,720
  3,919
  4,126
  4,344
  4,572
  4,809
  5,057
  5,318
  5,589
Operating income, $m
  61
  75
  94
  114
  135
  157
  180
  204
  229
  255
  282
  312
  341
  371
  403
  436
  471
  507
  545
  584
  625
  669
  714
  761
  811
  863
  917
  974
  1,034
  1,097
  1,163
EBITDA, $m
  70
  85
  105
  126
  148
  171
  195
  220
  246
  273
  301
  330
  360
  392
  425
  460
  496
  534
  573
  614
  657
  702
  749
  798
  850
  904
  961
  1,020
  1,082
  1,148
  1,216
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  60
  75
  94
  113
  134
  156
  178
  201
  226
  251
  278
  307
  336
  365
  397
  429
  463
  499
  536
  574
  615
  657
  701
  748
  796
  847
  901
  957
  1,016
  1,077
  1,142
Tax expense, $m
  22
  20
  25
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  274
  291
  308
Net income, $m
  38
  55
  69
  83
  98
  114
  130
  147
  165
  183
  203
  224
  245
  267
  290
  313
  338
  364
  391
  419
  449
  480
  512
  546
  581
  619
  658
  698
  741
  786
  834

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  328
  348
  383
  420
  458
  498
  540
  583
  628
  675
  724
  774
  827
  881
  938
  997
  1,059
  1,123
  1,190
  1,260
  1,332
  1,408
  1,487
  1,570
  1,656
  1,747
  1,841
  1,940
  2,043
  2,152
  2,265
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  314
  348
  383
  420
  458
  498
  540
  583
  628
  675
  724
  774
  827
  881
  938
  997
  1,059
  1,123
  1,190
  1,260
  1,332
  1,408
  1,487
  1,570
  1,656
  1,747
  1,841
  1,940
  2,043
  2,152
  2,265
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.981
  2.977
  2.979
  2.979
  2.980
  2.982
  2.980
  2.981
  2.981
  2.981
  2.979
  2.982
  2.979
  2.982
  2.982
  2.982
  2.981
  2.981
  2.981
  2.980
  2.981
  2.981
  2.981
  2.981
  2.982
  2.981
  2.982
  2.981
  2.981
  2.980
  2.981
Average production assets, $m
  83
  92
  102
  111
  122
  132
  143
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  219
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  374
  395
  417
  439
  463
  488
  515
  542
  571
  601
Working capital, $m
  26
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
Total debt, $m
  20
  17
  28
  39
  52
  64
  78
  91
  106
  121
  136
  152
  169
  186
  204
  223
  243
  263
  284
  307
  330
  354
  379
  405
  433
  461
  491
  523
  556
  590
  626
Total liabilities, $m
  114
  111
  122
  133
  146
  158
  172
  185
  200
  215
  230
  246
  263
  280
  298
  317
  337
  357
  378
  401
  424
  448
  473
  499
  527
  555
  585
  617
  650
  684
  720
Total equity, $m
  214
  237
  261
  286
  312
  340
  368
  398
  428
  460
  493
  528
  564
  601
  640
  680
  722
  766
  811
  859
  909
  960
  1,014
  1,071
  1,130
  1,191
  1,256
  1,323
  1,394
  1,467
  1,545
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  328
  348
  383
  419
  458
  498
  540
  583
  628
  675
  723
  774
  827
  881
  938
  997
  1,059
  1,123
  1,189
  1,260
  1,333
  1,408
  1,487
  1,570
  1,657
  1,746
  1,841
  1,940
  2,044
  2,151
  2,265
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.093
  0.070
  0.110
  0.140
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  55
  69
  83
  98
  114
  130
  147
  165
  183
  203
  224
  245
  267
  290
  313
  338
  364
  391
  419
  449
  480
  512
  546
  581
  619
  658
  698
  741
  786
  834
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
Funds from operations, $m
  73
  65
  79
  95
  111
  127
  144
  163
  181
  201
  222
  242
  265
  288
  312
  337
  363
  391
  419
  449
  480
  513
  547
  583
  621
  660
  701
  744
  790
  837
  887
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  62
  62
  76
  91
  107
  123
  140
  158
  177
  196
  217
  237
  259
  282
  306
  331
  357
  384
  413
  442
  473
  506
  539
  575
  612
  651
  692
  735
  780
  827
  876
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
Free cash flow, $m
  40
  45
  58
  72
  87
  102
  118
  134
  151
  169
  188
  207
  227
  248
  270
  293
  317
  342
  368
  396
  424
  454
  485
  518
  552
  588
  625
  665
  706
  750
  795
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  55
  70
  84
  99
  114
  131
  148
  166
  184
  203
  223
  244
  266
  288
  312
  337
  363
  390
  418
  447
  478
  510
  544
  579
  617
  655
  696
  739
  784
  831
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  46
  59
  73
  87
  102
  118
  135
  152
  170
  188
  208
  228
  250
  272
  295
  319
  344
  370
  398
  426
  456
  488
  521
  555
  591
  629
  669
  710
  754
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  42
  51
  60
  68
  74
  80
  84
  87
  89
  89
  89
  87
  84
  80
  75
  69
  63
  57
  51
  44
  38
  32
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Calavo Growers, Inc. markets and distributes avocados, prepared avocados, and other perishable foods to food distributors, produce wholesalers, supermarkets, convenience stores, and restaurants worldwide. It operates in three segments: Fresh Products, Calavo Foods, and RFG. The Fresh products segment distributes avocados and other fresh produce products; and procures avocados grown in Mexico, as well as various other commodities, including tomatoes, papayas, and pineapples. The Calavo Foods segment is involved in purchasing, manufacturing, and distributing prepared products, including guacamole and salsa. The RFG segment produces, markets, and distributes fresh-cut fruits, ready-to-eat vegetables, recipe-ready vegetables, and deli products. The company offers its products primarily under the Calavo and RFG brands, and related logos; and Avo Fresco, Bueno, Calavo Gold, Calavo Salsa Lisa, Salsa Lisa, Celebrate the Taste, El Dorado, Fresh Ripe, Select, Taste of Paradise, The First Name in Avocados, Tico, Mfresh, Maui Fresh International, Triggered Avocados, ProRipeVIP, Garden Highway Fresh Cut, Garden Highway, and Garden Highway Chef Essentials trademarks. Calavo Growers, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Santa Paula, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Calavo Growers (CVGW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.7
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 32
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.5%
Total Debt to Equity 9.3%
Interest Coverage 61
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Total Capital 16.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 19%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Asset Turnover 3.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 58%
Payout Ratio 36.8%

CVGW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVGW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $936 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Calavo Growers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Calavo Growers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVGW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CVGW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Calavo Growers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Calavo Growers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVGW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $144 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVGW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Calavo Growers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Calavo Growers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVGW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVGW are equal to 8.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Calavo Growers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVGW is equal to 3.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $214 million for Calavo Growers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.901 million for Calavo Growers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Calavo Growers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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▶ Why Fred's, Calavo Growers, and CarMax Jumped Today   [Dec-20-16 05:20PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of CVGW Financial statements of CVGW Annual reports of CVGW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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