Intrinsic value of CommVault Systems - CVLT

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$55.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$55.60

 
Intrinsic value

$14.72

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVLT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.41
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  651
  704
  759
  816
  875
  936
  1,000
  1,067
  1,136
  1,208
  1,283
  1,361
  1,442
  1,527
  1,615
  1,707
  1,804
  1,904
  2,009
  2,119
  2,234
  2,354
  2,480
  2,611
  2,749
  2,893
  3,044
  3,202
  3,368
  3,542
  3,724
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  702
  756
  813
  872
  933
  997
  1,064
  1,132
  1,204
  1,279
  1,357
  1,438
  1,522
  1,610
  1,702
  1,798
  1,898
  2,003
  2,113
  2,227
  2,347
  2,472
  2,603
  2,741
  2,884
  3,035
  3,193
  3,358
  3,532
  3,713
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  650
  702
  756
  813
  872
  933
  997
  1,064
  1,132
  1,204
  1,279
  1,357
  1,438
  1,522
  1,610
  1,702
  1,798
  1,898
  2,003
  2,113
  2,227
  2,347
  2,472
  2,603
  2,741
  2,884
  3,035
  3,193
  3,358
  3,532
  3,713
Operating income, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
EBITDA, $m
  10
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  2
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  450
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  803
  382
  411
  442
  474
  508
  542
  578
  616
  655
  696
  738
  782
  828
  876
  926
  978
  1,033
  1,090
  1,149
  1,211
  1,276
  1,345
  1,416
  1,491
  1,569
  1,651
  1,737
  1,827
  1,921
  2,020
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  353
  382
  411
  442
  474
  508
  542
  578
  616
  655
  696
  738
  782
  828
  876
  926
  978
  1,033
  1,090
  1,149
  1,211
  1,276
  1,345
  1,416
  1,491
  1,569
  1,651
  1,737
  1,827
  1,921
  2,020
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.844
  1.843
  1.847
  1.846
  1.846
  1.843
  1.845
  1.846
  1.844
  1.844
  1.843
  1.844
  1.844
  1.844
  1.844
  1.843
  1.845
  1.843
  1.843
  1.844
  1.845
  1.845
  1.844
  1.844
  1.844
  1.844
  1.844
  1.843
  1.843
  1.844
  1.844
Average production assets, $m
  134
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  333
  352
  372
  392
  414
  436
  460
  485
  511
  538
  566
  596
  627
  660
  694
  730
  767
Working capital, $m
  313
  -148
  -159
  -171
  -184
  -197
  -210
  -224
  -239
  -254
  -269
  -286
  -303
  -321
  -339
  -359
  -379
  -400
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -494
  -521
  -548
  -577
  -608
  -639
  -673
  -707
  -744
  -782
Total debt, $m
  0
  -17
  10
  38
  67
  97
  128
  161
  194
  229
  266
  304
  344
  385
  428
  473
  520
  569
  621
  674
  730
  789
  850
  914
  982
  1,052
  1,126
  1,203
  1,284
  1,369
  1,458
Total liabilities, $m
  360
  343
  370
  398
  427
  457
  488
  521
  554
  589
  626
  664
  704
  745
  788
  833
  880
  929
  981
  1,034
  1,090
  1,149
  1,210
  1,274
  1,342
  1,412
  1,486
  1,563
  1,644
  1,729
  1,818
Total equity, $m
  443
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  65
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  803
  381
  411
  442
  474
  508
  542
  579
  616
  654
  696
  738
  782
  828
  876
  926
  978
  1,032
  1,090
  1,149
  1,211
  1,277
  1,344
  1,416
  1,491
  1,569
  1,651
  1,737
  1,827
  1,921
  2,020
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.430
  0.250
  0.860
  1.410
  1.910
  2.360
  2.780
  3.160
  3.500
  3.820
  4.120
  4.400
  4.650
  4.890
  5.110
  5.320
  5.510
  5.700
  5.870
  6.030
  6.180
  6.320
  6.460
  6.580
  6.710
  6.820
  6.930
  7.030
  7.130
  7.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.020
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Funds from operations, $m
  132
  12
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Change in working capital, $m
  32
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
Cash from operations, $m
  100
  21
  25
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -28
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
Free cash flow, $m
  72
  0
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -17
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -22
  -17
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  41
  -16
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -45
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  450
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  389
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  373
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  19
  18
  17
  16
  14
  13
  12
  11
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Commvault Systems, Inc. provides data and information management software applications and related services in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company provides data protection-backup and recovery, cloud and infrastructure management, and retention and compliance software solutions. Its software platform features include data protection solutions to support operating systems, applications, and databases on virtual and physical servers, NAS shares, cloud-based infrastructures, and mobile devices; management through a single console; multiple protection methods, including backup and archive, snapshot management, replication, and content indexing for eDiscovery; storage management using deduplication for disk, tape, and cloud; and integration with the industry's storage arrays. The company’s software platform features also comprise virtual infrastructure management to support multiple hypervisors; security capabilities to limit access to critical data; policy based data management; and an end-user experience to protect, find, and recover data using common tools. In addition, it offers customer support, consulting, assessment and design, installation, and training services, as well as implementation and post-deployment, and education services. The company sells its software and services directly to large enterprises, small and medium sized businesses, and government agencies, as well as indirectly through a network of value-added reseller partners, systems integrators, corporate resellers, and original equipment manufacturers. It licenses its software applications to customers in industries, such as banking, insurance and financial, government, healthcare, pharmaceuticals and medical, technology, legal, manufacturing, utilities, and energy. The company has strategic relationships with Bull, Cisco, Citrix, Fujitsu, HP, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, and VMware. Commvault Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CommVault Systems (CVLT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2492
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -38.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 0.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 86.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.4%
EBITDA Margin 1.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Operating Margin 0.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 111.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVLT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVLT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $651 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CommVault Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CommVault Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVLT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CVLT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CommVault Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CommVault Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVLT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVLT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CommVault Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CommVault Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVLT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVLT are equal to 20.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CommVault Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVLT is equal to -21%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $443 million for CommVault Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.126 million for CommVault Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CommVault Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Commvault beats Street 4Q forecasts   [May-03-17 08:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [Apr-10-17 09:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [Jan-06-17 09:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is CommVault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06-16 01:26PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Tri Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)   [Nov-28-16 05:44AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Analyst Has 4 Red-Hot Tech Stocks to Buy for Q4   [Oct-07-16 09:55AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [09:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Red8 Earns Commvault's MarketBuilder Designation   [Oct-06-16 01:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ CommVault CEO On Share Rise, Growth and Competition   [Sep-23-16 04:28PM  at TheStreet]
▶ 7 Reasons I Bought Carbonite Inc. Stock   [Aug-26-16 08:24AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of CVLT Financial statements of CVLT Annual reports of CVLT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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