Intrinsic value of Corindus Vascular Robotics - CVRS

Previous Close

$1.15

  Intrinsic Value

$0.01

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$1.15

 
Intrinsic value

$0.01

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  3
  5
  7
  11
  16
  23
  31
  42
  55
  71
  89
  111
  136
  164
  195
  229
  266
  307
  350
  397
  446
  498
  553
  610
  671
  734
  799
  868
  939
  1,013
  1,090
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  48
  74
  111
  161
  227
  312
  419
  550
  708
  894
  1,110
  1,357
  1,636
  1,947
  2,289
  2,663
  3,067
  3,502
  3,966
  4,459
  4,980
  5,529
  6,105
  6,707
  7,337
  7,993
  8,677
  9,389
  10,128
  10,897
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  35
  48
  74
  111
  161
  227
  312
  419
  550
  708
  894
  1,110
  1,357
  1,636
  1,947
  2,289
  2,663
  3,067
  3,502
  3,966
  4,459
  4,980
  5,529
  6,105
  6,707
  7,337
  7,993
  8,677
  9,389
  10,128
  10,897
Operating income, $m
  -32
  -43
  -67
  -100
  -145
  -204
  -281
  -377
  -495
  -637
  -805
  -999
  -1,222
  -1,473
  -1,752
  -2,060
  -2,396
  -2,760
  -3,152
  -3,569
  -4,013
  -4,482
  -4,976
  -5,494
  -6,037
  -6,603
  -7,194
  -7,809
  -8,450
  -9,115
  -9,807
EBITDA, $m
  -31
  -43
  -66
  -99
  -144
  -203
  -279
  -374
  -491
  -632
  -799
  -992
  -1,213
  -1,462
  -1,739
  -2,045
  -2,379
  -2,740
  -3,128
  -3,543
  -3,983
  -4,449
  -4,939
  -5,453
  -5,992
  -6,554
  -7,141
  -7,752
  -8,387
  -9,048
  -9,735
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  4
  5
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  61
  69
  79
  89
  99
  110
  121
  134
  146
  159
  173
  187
  202
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -43
  -67
  -100
  -146
  -207
  -285
  -382
  -503
  -647
  -818
  -1,016
  -1,243
  -1,499
  -1,784
  -2,098
  -2,441
  -2,813
  -3,212
  -3,639
  -4,092
  -4,570
  -5,075
  -5,604
  -6,158
  -6,737
  -7,340
  -7,969
  -8,623
  -9,303
  -10,009
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  -43
  -67
  -100
  -146
  -207
  -285
  -382
  -503
  -647
  -818
  -1,016
  -1,243
  -1,499
  -1,784
  -2,098
  -2,441
  -2,813
  -3,212
  -3,639
  -4,092
  -4,570
  -5,075
  -5,604
  -6,158
  -6,737
  -7,340
  -7,969
  -8,623
  -9,303
  -10,009

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  260
  305
  355
  409
  467
  529
  595
  664
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,066
  1,157
  1,252
  1,350
  1,453
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  260
  305
  355
  409
  467
  529
  595
  664
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,066
  1,157
  1,252
  1,350
  1,453
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.750
  0.833
  0.700
  0.733
  0.762
  0.767
  0.738
  0.750
  0.753
  0.755
  0.748
  0.750
  0.751
  0.752
  0.750
  0.751
  0.749
  0.751
  0.749
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.749
  0.751
  0.751
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
Average production assets, $m
  1
  2
  2
  4
  5
  8
  10
  14
  18
  24
  30
  37
  45
  54
  65
  76
  89
  102
  117
  132
  148
  166
  184
  203
  223
  244
  266
  289
  313
  337
  363
Working capital, $m
  3
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -60
  -74
  -91
  -109
  -130
  -153
  -178
  -205
  -234
  -265
  -297
  -332
  -369
  -407
  -447
  -489
  -533
  -579
  -626
  -676
  -727
Total debt, $m
  4
  1
  4
  8
  14
  22
  32
  45
  61
  80
  102
  128
  158
  191
  229
  270
  315
  363
  415
  471
  530
  593
  658
  728
  800
  875
  954
  1,036
  1,122
  1,210
  1,303
Total liabilities, $m
  9
  6
  9
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  66
  85
  107
  133
  163
  196
  234
  275
  320
  368
  420
  476
  535
  598
  663
  733
  805
  880
  959
  1,041
  1,127
  1,215
  1,308
Total equity, $m
  4
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  74
  81
  89
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13
  7
  10
  14
  21
  30
  41
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  260
  306
  356
  409
  467
  529
  594
  664
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,066
  1,157
  1,252
  1,350
  1,453
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.000
  1.190
  3.940
  5.620
  6.670
  7.350
  7.800
  8.100
  8.320
  8.470
  8.580
  8.660
  8.720
  8.770
  8.810
  8.840
  8.860
  8.880
  8.890
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.250
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  -43
  -67
  -100
  -146
  -207
  -285
  -382
  -503
  -647
  -818
  -1,016
  -1,243
  -1,499
  -1,784
  -2,098
  -2,441
  -2,813
  -3,212
  -3,639
  -4,092
  -4,570
  -5,075
  -5,604
  -6,158
  -6,737
  -7,340
  -7,969
  -8,623
  -9,303
  -10,009
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  67
  73
Funds from operations, $m
  -26
  -43
  -66
  -100
  -145
  -205
  -283
  -380
  -499
  -643
  -812
  -1,009
  -1,234
  -1,488
  -1,771
  -2,083
  -2,424
  -2,792
  -3,189
  -3,612
  -4,062
  -4,537
  -5,038
  -5,563
  -6,113
  -6,688
  -7,287
  -7,911
  -8,560
  -9,235
  -9,937
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from operations, $m
  -28
  -42
  -65
  -97
  -142
  -201
  -277
  -373
  -490
  -632
  -800
  -995
  -1,218
  -1,469
  -1,750
  -2,060
  -2,399
  -2,765
  -3,160
  -3,581
  -4,029
  -4,503
  -5,001
  -5,525
  -6,073
  -6,646
  -7,243
  -7,865
  -8,513
  -9,186
  -9,886
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  20
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -93
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  -42
  -66
  -99
  -144
  -204
  -281
  -378
  -497
  -641
  -811
  -1,008
  -1,233
  -1,488
  -1,772
  -2,084
  -2,426
  -2,797
  -3,195
  -3,620
  -4,072
  -4,550
  -5,053
  -5,581
  -6,134
  -6,712
  -7,314
  -7,941
  -8,594
  -9,273
  -9,979
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  45
  67
  101
  147
  208
  286
  384
  504
  649
  821
  1,019
  1,246
  1,503
  1,788
  2,103
  2,446
  2,818
  3,218
  3,645
  4,098
  4,577
  5,082
  5,612
  6,166
  6,745
  7,349
  7,978
  8,632
  9,313
  10,020
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  46
  70
  105
  153
  216
  296
  397
  520
  668
  843
  1,045
  1,276
  1,536
  1,825
  2,144
  2,491
  2,867
  3,270
  3,701
  4,157
  4,640
  5,148
  5,681
  6,238
  6,821
  7,428
  8,060
  8,717
  9,402
  10,112
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  3
  5
  6
  9
  11
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  48
  54
  59
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  32
  -45
  -67
  -101
  -147
  -208
  -286
  -384
  -504
  -649
  -821
  -1,019
  -1,246
  -1,503
  -1,788
  -2,103
  -2,446
  -2,818
  -3,218
  -3,645
  -4,098
  -4,577
  -5,082
  -5,612
  -6,166
  -6,745
  -7,349
  -7,978
  -8,632
  -9,313
  -10,020
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -37
  -63
  -95
  -138
  -196
  -271
  -365
  -482
  -622
  -788
  -982
  -1,204
  -1,454
  -1,734
  -2,043
  -2,382
  -2,748
  -3,143
  -3,564
  -4,013
  -4,487
  -4,987
  -5,512
  -6,062
  -6,636
  -7,235
  -7,859
  -8,509
  -9,184
  -9,886
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -35
  -57
  -82
  -114
  -152
  -197
  -247
  -301
  -357
  -413
  -466
  -514
  -553
  -582
  -600
  -605
  -598
  -579
  -549
  -510
  -464
  -414
  -361
  -309
  -258
  -211
  -169
  -132
  -100
  -74
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  4.3
  0.4
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Corindus Vascular Robotics, Inc. is engaged in robotic-assisted vascular interventions. The Company's CorPath System is a medical device that brings robotic-assisted precision to radial, coronary and peripheral procedures. The workstation allows the physician greater control and the freedom from wearing heavy lead protective equipment that causes musculoskeletal injuries. With the CorPath System it brings robotic precision to radial and complex interventional procedures to help optimize clinical outcomes and minimize the costs associated with complications of improper stent placement with manual procedures. It operates through the development, marketing and sales of robotic-assisted vascular interventions segment. The CorPath System enables the robotic-assisted control of coronary guidewires and balloon/stent devices from the safety of a radiation-protected, ergonomic interventional cockpit. The CorPath System consists of two components: a bedside unit and an interventional cockpit.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Corindus Vascular Robotics (CVRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.1
Price to Sales 45.6
Price to Book 34.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 100%
Interest Coverage -32
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -106.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -109.4%
Return On Total Capital -126.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -126.3%
Return On Equity -165%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -172.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.6%
EBITDA Margin -1033.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -911.1%
Operating Margin -1066.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -900%
Pre-Tax Margin -1100%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -966.7%
Net Profit Margin -1100%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -966.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Corindus Vascular Robotics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Corindus Vascular Robotics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CVRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Corindus Vascular Robotics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Corindus Vascular Robotics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1000%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.7% for Corindus Vascular Robotics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Corindus Vascular Robotics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVRS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVRS are equal to 33.3%.

Life of production assets of 1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Corindus Vascular Robotics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVRS is equal to -66.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4 million for Corindus Vascular Robotics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 187.296 million for Corindus Vascular Robotics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Corindus Vascular Robotics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Corindus Vascular reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 11:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Corindus Vascular reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 06:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Corindus Vascular reports 4Q loss   [Mar-15-17 04:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ How CardConnect Corp (CCN) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-15-16 09:11PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of CVRS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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