Intrinsic value of CPI Aerostructures - CVU

Previous Close

$8.65

  Intrinsic Value

$244.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

-16%

Previous close

$8.65

 
Intrinsic value

$244.89

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-16%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -19.00
  53.80
  48.92
  44.53
  40.58
  37.02
  33.82
  30.93
  28.34
  26.01
  23.91
  22.02
  20.31
  18.78
  17.40
  16.16
  15.05
  14.04
  13.14
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.81
  9.33
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
Revenue, $m
  81
  125
  186
  268
  377
  516
  691
  905
  1,161
  1,463
  1,813
  2,212
  2,662
  3,162
  3,712
  4,312
  4,961
  5,658
  6,401
  7,190
  8,023
  8,900
  9,821
  10,784
  11,789
  12,838
  13,929
  15,065
  16,246
  17,473
  18,748
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  32
  48
  69
  98
  134
  179
  234
  301
  379
  470
  573
  689
  819
  961
  1,117
  1,285
  1,465
  1,658
  1,862
  2,078
  2,305
  2,544
  2,793
  3,053
  3,325
  3,608
  3,902
  4,208
  4,525
  4,856
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  137
  141
Total operating expenses, $m
  86
  101
  118
  141
  172
  210
  257
  314
  383
  463
  556
  661
  779
  911
  1,056
  1,214
  1,384
  1,567
  1,762
  1,969
  2,188
  2,418
  2,659
  2,911
  3,174
  3,449
  3,735
  4,033
  4,342
  4,662
  4,997
Operating income, $m
  -4
  24
  67
  127
  205
  307
  434
  591
  779
  1,001
  1,258
  1,551
  1,882
  2,251
  2,656
  3,098
  3,577
  4,090
  4,639
  5,220
  5,835
  6,483
  7,162
  7,872
  8,615
  9,388
  10,194
  11,033
  11,904
  12,810
  13,752
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  24
  68
  127
  206
  308
  436
  593
  782
  1,004
  1,262
  1,557
  1,889
  2,258
  2,665
  3,109
  3,589
  4,104
  4,655
  5,238
  5,855
  6,505
  7,186
  7,899
  8,644
  9,421
  10,229
  11,070
  11,945
  12,854
  13,799
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  19
  24
  30
  38
  46
  56
  66
  78
  91
  105
  119
  135
  152
  169
  188
  208
  228
  249
  271
  295
  319
  344
  370
Earnings before tax, $m
  -6
  23
  65
  123
  200
  299
  424
  577
  760
  977
  1,227
  1,514
  1,836
  2,195
  2,590
  3,020
  3,486
  3,986
  4,519
  5,085
  5,684
  6,313
  6,974
  7,665
  8,387
  9,139
  9,923
  10,738
  11,586
  12,467
  13,382
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  6
  18
  33
  54
  81
  114
  156
  205
  264
  331
  409
  496
  593
  699
  815
  941
  1,076
  1,220
  1,373
  1,535
  1,705
  1,883
  2,070
  2,264
  2,468
  2,679
  2,899
  3,128
  3,366
  3,613
Net income, $m
  -4
  16
  47
  90
  146
  219
  310
  421
  555
  713
  896
  1,105
  1,340
  1,602
  1,890
  2,205
  2,545
  2,910
  3,299
  3,712
  4,149
  4,609
  5,091
  5,595
  6,122
  6,672
  7,244
  7,839
  8,457
  9,101
  9,769

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  118
  180
  268
  387
  545
  746
  999
  1,308
  1,678
  2,115
  2,620
  3,197
  3,847
  4,569
  5,364
  6,231
  7,169
  8,176
  9,250
  10,390
  11,594
  12,862
  14,192
  15,583
  17,036
  18,551
  20,129
  21,770
  23,476
  25,250
  27,092
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  117
  180
  268
  387
  545
  746
  999
  1,308
  1,678
  2,115
  2,620
  3,197
  3,847
  4,569
  5,364
  6,231
  7,169
  8,176
  9,250
  10,390
  11,594
  12,862
  14,192
  15,583
  17,036
  18,551
  20,129
  21,770
  23,476
  25,250
  27,092
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.692
  0.694
  0.694
  0.693
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
Average production assets, $m
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  23
  29
  37
  45
  55
  67
  79
  93
  108
  124
  141
  160
  180
  201
  223
  246
  270
  295
  321
  348
  377
  406
  437
  469
Working capital, $m
  70
  62
  93
  134
  188
  258
  346
  452
  581
  732
  907
  1,106
  1,331
  1,581
  1,856
  2,156
  2,480
  2,829
  3,200
  3,595
  4,012
  4,450
  4,910
  5,392
  5,895
  6,419
  6,965
  7,532
  8,123
  8,736
  9,374
Total debt, $m
  33
  58
  95
  145
  211
  296
  401
  531
  686
  869
  1,081
  1,323
  1,595
  1,897
  2,231
  2,594
  2,987
  3,409
  3,859
  4,336
  4,841
  5,372
  5,929
  6,512
  7,121
  7,756
  8,417
  9,105
  9,820
  10,563
  11,335
Total liabilities, $m
  50
  75
  112
  162
  228
  313
  418
  548
  703
  886
  1,098
  1,340
  1,612
  1,914
  2,248
  2,611
  3,004
  3,426
  3,876
  4,353
  4,858
  5,389
  5,946
  6,529
  7,138
  7,773
  8,434
  9,122
  9,837
  10,580
  11,352
Total equity, $m
  68
  105
  156
  225
  316
  434
  580
  760
  975
  1,229
  1,522
  1,858
  2,235
  2,655
  3,117
  3,620
  4,165
  4,750
  5,374
  6,036
  6,736
  7,473
  8,245
  9,054
  9,898
  10,778
  11,695
  12,648
  13,640
  14,670
  15,741
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  118
  180
  268
  387
  544
  747
  998
  1,308
  1,678
  2,115
  2,620
  3,198
  3,847
  4,569
  5,365
  6,231
  7,169
  8,176
  9,250
  10,389
  11,594
  12,862
  14,191
  15,583
  17,036
  18,551
  20,129
  21,770
  23,477
  25,250
  27,093
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.485
  0.560
  0.610
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  16
  47
  90
  146
  219
  310
  421
  555
  713
  896
  1,105
  1,340
  1,602
  1,890
  2,205
  2,545
  2,910
  3,299
  3,712
  4,149
  4,609
  5,091
  5,595
  6,122
  6,672
  7,244
  7,839
  8,457
  9,101
  9,769
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  17
  48
  91
  147
  220
  311
  423
  558
  717
  901
  1,110
  1,347
  1,610
  1,900
  2,215
  2,557
  2,924
  3,315
  3,730
  4,169
  4,631
  5,115
  5,622
  6,152
  6,704
  7,278
  7,876
  8,498
  9,144
  9,816
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  22
  30
  41
  54
  70
  87
  107
  128
  151
  175
  200
  225
  250
  275
  300
  324
  348
  372
  394
  417
  439
  460
  481
  503
  524
  546
  568
  590
  614
  638
Cash from operations, $m
  -7
  -5
  17
  49
  93
  150
  224
  316
  430
  566
  726
  911
  1,122
  1,360
  1,625
  1,915
  2,233
  2,575
  2,943
  3,336
  3,752
  4,192
  4,655
  5,141
  5,649
  6,180
  6,733
  7,309
  7,908
  8,531
  9,178
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -76
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  -6
  16
  47
  89
  146
  218
  309
  421
  555
  713
  896
  1,105
  1,341
  1,603
  1,891
  2,206
  2,546
  2,911
  3,300
  3,714
  4,150
  4,610
  5,092
  5,597
  6,124
  6,673
  7,245
  7,841
  8,459
  9,103
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  26
  37
  50
  66
  84
  106
  129
  155
  183
  212
  242
  272
  303
  333
  363
  393
  422
  450
  478
  505
  531
  557
  583
  609
  635
  661
  688
  715
  743
  772
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  20
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  46
  41
  50
  66
  84
  106
  129
  155
  183
  212
  242
  272
  303
  333
  363
  393
  422
  450
  478
  505
  531
  557
  583
  609
  635
  661
  688
  715
  743
  772
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  40
  56
  97
  155
  230
  324
  439
  576
  738
  925
  1,138
  1,378
  1,644
  1,936
  2,254
  2,598
  2,967
  3,361
  3,778
  4,218
  4,681
  5,167
  5,675
  6,206
  6,759
  7,334
  7,933
  8,555
  9,202
  9,875
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -37
  -51
  -69
  -91
  -117
  -147
  -179
  -215
  -254
  -294
  -335
  -377
  -420
  -462
  -504
  -545
  -585
  -624
  -662
  -700
  -736
  -773
  -809
  -844
  -880
  -917
  -953
  -991
  -1,030
  -1,071
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  4
  5
  27
  64
  113
  177
  259
  361
  484
  631
  803
  1,000
  1,224
  1,474
  1,751
  2,054
  2,383
  2,737
  3,115
  3,518
  3,945
  4,395
  4,867
  5,361
  5,878
  6,418
  6,979
  7,564
  8,172
  8,804
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  4
  21
  45
  71
  98
  126
  152
  175
  193
  205
  211
  209
  202
  188
  170
  150
  128
  106
  85
  66
  50
  37
  26
  18
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.7
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3
  76.3

CPI Aerostructures, Inc. engages in the contract production of structural aircraft parts for fixed wing aircraft and helicopters in the commercial and defense aerospace markets. It offers aircraft structural parts, such as skin panels, leading edges, flight control surfaces, engine components, wing tips, cowl doors, nacelle assemblies, and inlet assemblies for military aircraft; and reconnaissance pod structures and fuel panel systems. The company also operates as a subcontractor for defense prime contractors and commercial contractors, as well as the United States Department of Defense, primarily the Air Force. In addition, it offers engineering, program management, supply chain management, and maintenance repair and overhaul services. The company was formerly known as Consortium of Precision Industries, Inc. and changed its name to CPI Aerostructures, Inc. in July 1992. CPI Aerostructures, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is based in Edgewood, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CPI Aerostructures (CVU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -18.9
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 2.4
LT Debt to Equity 14.7%
Total Debt to Equity 48.5%
Interest Coverage -5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Total Capital -4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Return On Equity -5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 4.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.7%
EBITDA Margin -4.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.3%
Operating Margin -6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.5%
Net Profit Margin -4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.8%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $81 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CPI Aerostructures. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CPI Aerostructures. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 53.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for CVU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CPI Aerostructures, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CPI Aerostructures.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $67 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CPI Aerostructures.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CPI Aerostructures. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVU are equal to 2.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CPI Aerostructures operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVU is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $68 million for CPI Aerostructures - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.624 million for CPI Aerostructures is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CPI Aerostructures at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CPI Aerostructures Announces Filing of Form 12b-25   [Mar-15-16 05:35PM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of CVU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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