Intrinsic value of Curtiss-Wright - CW

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$93.46

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$93.46

 
Intrinsic value

$93.86

 
Up/down potential

0%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.40
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,109
  2,151
  2,201
  2,257
  2,321
  2,391
  2,468
  2,552
  2,643
  2,741
  2,847
  2,959
  3,079
  3,207
  3,343
  3,487
  3,640
  3,802
  3,973
  4,154
  4,344
  4,546
  4,758
  4,982
  5,218
  5,466
  5,728
  6,003
  6,293
  6,598
  6,918
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,846
  1,886
  1,932
  1,984
  2,041
  2,104
  2,172
  2,247
  2,326
  2,412
  2,408
  2,506
  2,610
  2,721
  2,838
  2,963
  3,094
  3,234
  3,381
  3,536
  3,700
  3,873
  4,055
  4,247
  4,449
  4,662
  4,886
  5,122
  5,370
  5,631
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,801
  1,846
  1,886
  1,932
  1,984
  2,041
  2,104
  2,172
  2,247
  2,326
  2,412
  2,408
  2,506
  2,610
  2,721
  2,838
  2,963
  3,094
  3,234
  3,381
  3,536
  3,700
  3,873
  4,055
  4,247
  4,449
  4,662
  4,886
  5,122
  5,370
  5,631
Operating income, $m
  308
  305
  314
  325
  337
  350
  364
  380
  397
  415
  435
  551
  573
  597
  622
  649
  677
  707
  739
  773
  808
  846
  885
  927
  971
  1,017
  1,066
  1,117
  1,171
  1,228
  1,287
EBITDA, $m
  404
  441
  451
  463
  476
  491
  506
  524
  542
  562
  584
  607
  632
  658
  686
  715
  747
  780
  815
  852
  891
  933
  976
  1,022
  1,071
  1,121
  1,175
  1,232
  1,291
  1,354
  1,419
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  132
  139
  148
Earnings before tax, $m
  268
  277
  285
  294
  304
  316
  328
  342
  356
  372
  389
  503
  522
  543
  564
  588
  612
  638
  666
  695
  726
  758
  792
  828
  866
  906
  948
  993
  1,039
  1,088
  1,140
Tax expense, $m
  79
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  136
  141
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
Net income, $m
  187
  202
  208
  215
  222
  230
  240
  249
  260
  272
  284
  367
  381
  396
  412
  429
  447
  466
  486
  507
  530
  553
  578
  605
  632
  662
  692
  725
  759
  794
  832

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  554
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,038
  2,534
  2,592
  2,659
  2,733
  2,816
  2,907
  3,006
  3,113
  3,229
  3,353
  3,485
  3,627
  3,777
  3,938
  4,107
  4,287
  4,478
  4,679
  4,892
  5,117
  5,354
  5,604
  5,868
  6,146
  6,438
  6,747
  7,071
  7,412
  7,771
  8,149
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,484
  2,534
  2,592
  2,659
  2,733
  2,816
  2,907
  3,006
  3,113
  3,229
  3,353
  3,485
  3,627
  3,777
  3,938
  4,107
  4,287
  4,478
  4,679
  4,892
  5,117
  5,354
  5,604
  5,868
  6,146
  6,438
  6,747
  7,071
  7,412
  7,771
  8,149
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
Average production assets, $m
  693
  706
  722
  740
  761
  784
  810
  837
  867
  899
  934
  971
  1,010
  1,052
  1,096
  1,144
  1,194
  1,247
  1,303
  1,362
  1,425
  1,491
  1,561
  1,634
  1,711
  1,793
  1,879
  1,969
  2,064
  2,164
  2,269
Working capital, $m
  740
  344
  352
  361
  371
  383
  395
  408
  423
  439
  455
  473
  493
  513
  535
  558
  582
  608
  636
  665
  695
  727
  761
  797
  835
  875
  916
  960
  1,007
  1,056
  1,107
Total debt, $m
  966
  848
  886
  929
  977
  1,030
  1,088
  1,152
  1,221
  1,295
  1,375
  1,460
  1,551
  1,648
  1,751
  1,860
  1,976
  2,098
  2,228
  2,365
  2,509
  2,662
  2,823
  2,992
  3,171
  3,359
  3,557
  3,766
  3,985
  4,216
  4,459
Total liabilities, $m
  1,747
  1,629
  1,667
  1,710
  1,758
  1,811
  1,869
  1,933
  2,002
  2,076
  2,156
  2,241
  2,332
  2,429
  2,532
  2,641
  2,757
  2,879
  3,009
  3,146
  3,290
  3,443
  3,604
  3,773
  3,952
  4,140
  4,338
  4,547
  4,766
  4,997
  5,240
Total equity, $m
  1,291
  905
  925
  949
  976
  1,005
  1,038
  1,073
  1,112
  1,153
  1,197
  1,244
  1,295
  1,349
  1,406
  1,466
  1,531
  1,599
  1,671
  1,747
  1,827
  1,911
  2,001
  2,095
  2,194
  2,299
  2,409
  2,524
  2,646
  2,774
  2,909
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,038
  2,534
  2,592
  2,659
  2,734
  2,816
  2,907
  3,006
  3,114
  3,229
  3,353
  3,485
  3,627
  3,778
  3,938
  4,107
  4,288
  4,478
  4,680
  4,893
  5,117
  5,354
  5,605
  5,868
  6,146
  6,439
  6,747
  7,071
  7,412
  7,771
  8,149
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.748
  0.940
  0.960
  0.980
  1.000
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.100
  1.120
  1.150
  1.170
  1.200
  1.220
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.297
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  187
  202
  208
  215
  222
  230
  240
  249
  260
  272
  284
  367
  381
  396
  412
  429
  447
  466
  486
  507
  530
  553
  578
  605
  632
  662
  692
  725
  759
  794
  832
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  136
  137
  138
  139
  141
  142
  144
  146
  147
  149
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
Funds from operations, $m
  555
  338
  345
  353
  361
  371
  382
  393
  406
  419
  434
  423
  440
  457
  476
  495
  516
  538
  562
  587
  613
  640
  669
  700
  732
  766
  802
  839
  879
  920
  964
Change in working capital, $m
  132
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  423
  299
  337
  344
  351
  360
  369
  380
  391
  403
  417
  405
  421
  437
  454
  472
  492
  513
  534
  558
  582
  608
  635
  664
  694
  726
  760
  795
  832
  871
  913
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -43
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
Free cash flow, $m
  380
  246
  280
  283
  287
  293
  298
  305
  313
  321
  330
  314
  325
  336
  348
  361
  375
  390
  406
  423
  440
  459
  479
  500
  522
  545
  570
  596
  623
  652
  682
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  33
  37
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -83
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -73
  33
  37
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  288
  279
  317
  326
  336
  346
  357
  369
  382
  395
  410
  399
  416
  433
  451
  471
  491
  513
  535
  559
  585
  612
  640
  669
  700
  733
  768
  804
  842
  882
  925
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -36
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  403
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  665
  296
  302
  309
  316
  324
  333
  343
  354
  365
  352
  365
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  463
  483
  505
  527
  550
  575
  601
  629
  658
  688
  720
  754
  790
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  638
  271
  263
  254
  245
  235
  225
  215
  203
  192
  167
  156
  144
  132
  120
  108
  97
  85
  74
  64
  54
  46
  38
  31
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Curtiss-Wright Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and overhauls precision components, and engineered products and services primarily to the aerospace, defense, power generation, and general industrial markets worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Commercial/Industrial, Defense, and Power. The Commercial/Industrial segment offers industrial vehicle products, such as electronic throttle control devices and transmission shifters; sensors, controls and electro-mechanical actuation components, and utility systems used in commercial aircrafts; valves primarily to the industrial and naval defense markets; and surface technology services, including shot peening, laser peening, coatings, and advanced testing. The Defense segment provides commercial off-the-shelf embedded computing board level modules, integrated subsystems, flight test equipment, instrumentation and control systems, turret aiming and stabilization products, and weapons handling systems; and avionics and electronics, flight test equipment, and aircraft data management solutions to the commercial aerospace market. The Power segment offers hardware, pumps, valves, fastening systems, specialized containment doors, airlock hatches, spent fuel management products, and fluid sealing technologies for nuclear power plants and nuclear equipment manufacturers; and coolant pumps, power-dense compact motors, generators, and secondary propulsion systems primarily to the U.S. navy. Curtiss-Wright Corporation was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Curtiss-Wright (CW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.1
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 11
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 30.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 63.1%
Total Debt to Equity 74.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 14.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
EBITDA Margin 17.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Operating Margin 14.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 29.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Payout Ratio 12.3%

CW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2109 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Curtiss-Wright. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Curtiss-Wright. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Curtiss-Wright, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Curtiss-Wright.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Curtiss-Wright.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Curtiss-Wright. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CW are equal to 32.8%.

Life of production assets of 17.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Curtiss-Wright operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CW is equal to 16%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1291 million for Curtiss-Wright - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.269 million for Curtiss-Wright is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Curtiss-Wright at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Curtiss-Wright tops 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-15-17 06:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Curtiss-Wright to Webcast Investor Day Event   [Sep-16-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vizant, Time Warner Cable among new, renewed leases in Ballantyne   [Jul-15-16 06:30AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Curtiss-Wright Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Tuesday (CW)   [Jun-21-16 12:33PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Gearing up for Wednesday's Prints   [11:14AM  at TheStreet]
Stock chart of CW Financial statements of CW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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