Intrinsic value of Casella Waste Systems Cl A - CWST

Previous Close

$16.61

  Intrinsic Value

$0.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

  Value-price divergence*

-3%

Previous close

$16.61

 
Intrinsic value

$0.55

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-3%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CWST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.29
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  565
  606
  648
  692
  738
  785
  835
  886
  940
  996
  1,054
  1,115
  1,178
  1,244
  1,313
  1,386
  1,461
  1,540
  1,623
  1,709
  1,800
  1,895
  1,994
  2,098
  2,207
  2,321
  2,441
  2,567
  2,698
  2,836
  2,981
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  537
  574
  612
  651
  693
  735
  780
  826
  875
  925
  966
  1,021
  1,078
  1,138
  1,201
  1,267
  1,335
  1,407
  1,482
  1,560
  1,642
  1,728
  1,819
  1,913
  2,012
  2,116
  2,225
  2,339
  2,458
  2,584
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
Total operating expenses, $m
  534
  571
  609
  648
  687
  730
  773
  819
  866
  916
  967
  1,009
  1,065
  1,123
  1,185
  1,249
  1,316
  1,385
  1,458
  1,535
  1,614
  1,697
  1,785
  1,877
  1,973
  2,073
  2,179
  2,289
  2,405
  2,526
  2,653
Operating income, $m
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  105
  113
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  310
  328
EBITDA, $m
  93
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  164
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  237
  252
  267
  282
  299
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  464
  489
  516
  544
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  43
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
Earnings before tax, $m
  -6
  -8
  0
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Net income, $m
  -7
  -8
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  632
  677
  725
  774
  825
  878
  934
  991
  1,051
  1,114
  1,179
  1,247
  1,318
  1,392
  1,469
  1,550
  1,635
  1,723
  1,815
  1,912
  2,013
  2,120
  2,231
  2,347
  2,469
  2,597
  2,731
  2,871
  3,018
  3,173
  3,335
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  629
  677
  725
  774
  825
  878
  934
  991
  1,051
  1,114
  1,179
  1,247
  1,318
  1,392
  1,469
  1,550
  1,635
  1,723
  1,815
  1,912
  2,013
  2,120
  2,231
  2,347
  2,469
  2,597
  2,731
  2,871
  3,018
  3,173
  3,335
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.898
  0.895
  0.894
  0.894
  0.895
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
Average production assets, $m
  409
  439
  469
  501
  534
  568
  604
  642
  680
  721
  763
  807
  853
  901
  951
  1,003
  1,058
  1,115
  1,175
  1,238
  1,303
  1,372
  1,444
  1,519
  1,598
  1,681
  1,767
  1,858
  1,954
  2,053
  2,158
Working capital, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Total debt, $m
  509
  462
  504
  549
  595
  642
  692
  744
  798
  854
  913
  974
  1,038
  1,105
  1,174
  1,247
  1,323
  1,403
  1,486
  1,573
  1,664
  1,760
  1,860
  1,964
  2,074
  2,189
  2,310
  2,436
  2,568
  2,707
  2,853
Total liabilities, $m
  656
  610
  652
  697
  743
  790
  840
  892
  946
  1,002
  1,061
  1,122
  1,186
  1,253
  1,322
  1,395
  1,471
  1,551
  1,634
  1,721
  1,812
  1,908
  2,008
  2,112
  2,222
  2,337
  2,458
  2,584
  2,716
  2,855
  3,001
Total equity, $m
  -25
  68
  72
  77
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  333
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  631
  678
  724
  774
  826
  878
  933
  991
  1,051
  1,113
  1,179
  1,247
  1,318
  1,392
  1,469
  1,550
  1,634
  1,723
  1,816
  1,912
  2,013
  2,120
  2,231
  2,347
  2,469
  2,597
  2,731
  2,871
  3,018
  3,172
  3,334
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -20.360
  6.820
  6.960
  7.090
  7.210
  7.310
  7.410
  7.510
  7.590
  7.670
  7.740
  7.810
  7.880
  7.940
  7.990
  8.050
  8.090
  8.140
  8.180
  8.230
  8.260
  8.300
  8.340
  8.370
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
  8.480
  8.510
  8.530
  8.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.045
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -7
  -8
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  216
Funds from operations, $m
  71
  47
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  259
  273
  287
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  48
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  159
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  259
  273
  288
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
New CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -63
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -310
Free cash flow, $m
  17
  -23
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  -47
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  146
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  101
  4
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  54
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  146
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  43
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -101
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -70
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  32
  34
  36
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
Discount rate, %
 
  13.60
  14.28
  14.99
  15.74
  16.53
  17.36
  18.23
  19.14
  20.09
  21.10
  22.15
  23.26
  24.42
  25.64
  26.93
  28.27
  29.69
  31.17
  32.73
  34.37
  36.08
  37.89
  39.78
  41.77
  43.86
  46.05
  48.36
  50.78
  53.31
  55.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -62
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  46.9
  44.7
  43.2
  42.2
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8
  41.8

Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically-integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States. The company operates through Eastern Region, Western Region, Recycling, and Other segments. It provides resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, and industrial customers. The company offers a range of non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, material recovery facilities, and disposal facilities. It also markets recyclable metals, aluminum, plastics, and paper and corrugated cardboard that are processed at its facilities, as well as recyclables purchased from third-parties. In addition, the company is involved in commodity brokerage operations. As of January 29, 2016, it owned and/or operated 34 solid waste collection operations, 44 transfer stations, 18 recycling facilities, 9 Subtitle D landfills, 4 landfill gas-to-energy facilities, and 1 landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition materials. Casella Waste Systems, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Casella Waste Systems Cl A (CWST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -98.6
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book -27.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2016%
Total Debt to Equity -2036%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital -1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Return On Equity 29.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
EBITDA Margin 17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Net Profit Margin -1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Effective Tax Rate -16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CWST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CWST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $565 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Casella Waste Systems Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Casella Waste Systems Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CWST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.6%, whose default value for CWST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Casella Waste Systems Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Casella Waste Systems Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CWST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $33 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CWST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.5% for Casella Waste Systems Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Casella Waste Systems Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CWST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CWST are equal to 72.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Casella Waste Systems Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CWST is equal to -0.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-25 million for Casella Waste Systems Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.102 million for Casella Waste Systems Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Casella Waste Systems Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Casella reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Best Stock in Vermont: Casella Waste Systems   [Jul-21-17 01:10PM  Kiplinger]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 7th   [Jul-07-17 10:31AM  Zacks]
▶ Casella reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 04:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Strong Performing Stocks To Buy Now   [Apr-26-17 04:27PM  Zacks]
▶ Five Strong Buy Stocks to Buy at New Highs   [Apr-19-17 07:13PM  Zacks]
▶ Casella Waste Systems Gearing Up for a Better Future   [Apr-10-17 03:33PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Bull of the Day: Casella Waste (CWST)   [07:01AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Today's Strong Buys Breaking Out to New Highs   [Mar-25-17 12:01AM  Zacks]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Waste & Environmental Services Symposium   [Feb-15-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST)   [Dec-02-16 05:50AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of CWST Financial statements of CWST
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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