Intrinsic value of California Water Service Group - CWT

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$37.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$37.65

 
Intrinsic value

$35.09

 
Up/down potential

-7%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CWT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.57
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  609
  666
  726
  788
  853
  920
  990
  1,063
  1,138
  1,217
  1,298
  1,383
  1,471
  1,563
  1,659
  1,758
  1,862
  1,970
  2,083
  2,201
  2,324
  2,453
  2,588
  2,728
  2,875
  3,029
  3,190
  3,359
  3,535
  3,720
  3,914
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  476
  518
  563
  609
  657
  707
  758
  812
  868
  927
  987
  1,050
  1,115
  1,183
  1,255
  1,329
  1,406
  1,487
  1,571
  1,659
  1,750
  1,846
  1,947
  2,052
  2,161
  2,276
  2,396
  2,522
  2,654
  2,793
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  153
  157
Total operating expenses, $m
  508
  553
  597
  644
  692
  742
  794
  847
  903
  962
  1,023
  1,085
  1,151
  1,218
  1,289
  1,364
  1,440
  1,520
  1,604
  1,691
  1,782
  1,876
  1,975
  2,079
  2,188
  2,300
  2,419
  2,542
  2,672
  2,807
  2,950
Operating income, $m
  101
  114
  129
  145
  161
  178
  196
  215
  234
  255
  276
  298
  321
  344
  369
  395
  422
  450
  480
  511
  543
  577
  612
  649
  688
  729
  771
  816
  863
  912
  964
EBITDA, $m
  166
  134
  151
  169
  187
  207
  227
  248
  269
  292
  315
  340
  365
  392
  420
  449
  479
  510
  543
  578
  614
  651
  691
  732
  775
  821
  868
  918
  971
  1,025
  1,083
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  30
  37
  45
  54
  62
  71
  80
  90
  100
  111
  122
  133
  145
  157
  170
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  259
  276
  294
  312
  332
  353
  374
  397
  420
  445
Earnings before tax, $m
  75
  84
  92
  99
  108
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  254
  269
  284
  301
  318
  336
  356
  376
  397
  419
  442
  466
  492
  519
Tax expense, $m
  26
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  68
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
Net income, $m
  49
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  208
  220
  232
  246
  260
  274
  290
  306
  323
  341
  359
  379

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,412
  2,613
  2,847
  3,091
  3,344
  3,608
  3,882
  4,167
  4,463
  4,771
  5,091
  5,423
  5,769
  6,130
  6,505
  6,895
  7,303
  7,727
  8,170
  8,633
  9,116
  9,620
  10,148
  10,699
  11,276
  11,879
  12,510
  13,171
  13,864
  14,589
  15,349
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,387
  2,613
  2,847
  3,091
  3,344
  3,608
  3,882
  4,167
  4,463
  4,771
  5,091
  5,423
  5,769
  6,130
  6,505
  6,895
  7,303
  7,727
  8,170
  8,633
  9,116
  9,620
  10,148
  10,699
  11,276
  11,879
  12,510
  13,171
  13,864
  14,589
  15,349
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
Average production assets, $m
  93
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  150
  162
  173
  185
  197
  210
  224
  238
  252
  267
  283
  300
  317
  335
  353
  373
  393
  415
  437
  460
  485
  511
  537
  565
  595
Working capital, $m
  -108
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
Total debt, $m
  655
  794
  963
  1,140
  1,323
  1,514
  1,713
  1,919
  2,133
  2,356
  2,588
  2,828
  3,079
  3,340
  3,611
  3,894
  4,189
  4,496
  4,817
  5,152
  5,502
  5,867
  6,249
  6,648
  7,066
  7,502
  7,960
  8,438
  8,939
  9,464
  10,014
Total liabilities, $m
  1,752
  1,892
  2,061
  2,238
  2,421
  2,612
  2,811
  3,017
  3,231
  3,454
  3,686
  3,926
  4,177
  4,438
  4,709
  4,992
  5,287
  5,594
  5,915
  6,250
  6,600
  6,965
  7,347
  7,746
  8,164
  8,600
  9,058
  9,536
  10,037
  10,562
  11,112
Total equity, $m
  659
  721
  786
  853
  923
  996
  1,071
  1,150
  1,232
  1,317
  1,405
  1,497
  1,592
  1,692
  1,795
  1,903
  2,015
  2,133
  2,255
  2,383
  2,516
  2,655
  2,801
  2,953
  3,112
  3,279
  3,453
  3,635
  3,826
  4,027
  4,236
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,411
  2,613
  2,847
  3,091
  3,344
  3,608
  3,882
  4,167
  4,463
  4,771
  5,091
  5,423
  5,769
  6,130
  6,504
  6,895
  7,302
  7,727
  8,170
  8,633
  9,116
  9,620
  10,148
  10,699
  11,276
  11,879
  12,511
  13,171
  13,863
  14,589
  15,348
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.994
  1.100
  1.230
  1.340
  1.430
  1.520
  1.600
  1.670
  1.730
  1.790
  1.840
  1.890
  1.930
  1.970
  2.010
  2.050
  2.080
  2.110
  2.140
  2.160
  2.190
  2.210
  2.230
  2.250
  2.270
  2.290
  2.310
  2.320
  2.340
  2.350
  2.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  208
  220
  232
  246
  260
  274
  290
  306
  323
  341
  359
  379
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
Funds from operations, $m
  167
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  275
  290
  307
  324
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  472
  498
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  175
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  220
  233
  247
  261
  276
  292
  309
  326
  345
  364
  384
  405
  428
  451
  475
  501
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
New CAPEX, $m
  -229
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -231
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
Free cash flow, $m
  -71
  148
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  195
  207
  219
  231
  245
  259
  273
  289
  305
  322
  340
  359
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  106
  164
  169
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  307
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  479
  501
  525
  550
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  164
  169
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  307
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  479
  501
  525
  550
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  312
  230
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  360
  378
  397
  416
  437
  458
  481
  505
  530
  556
  584
  613
  644
  676
  710
  746
  784
  823
  865
  909
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  250
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  255
  269
  283
  297
  313
  329
  346
  364
  383
  402
  423
  445
  468
  492
  517
  544
  572
  601
  632
  665
  699
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  232
  142
  138
  133
  127
  120
  112
  103
  94
  85
  76
  66
  58
  49
  41
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

California Water Service Group, through its subsidiaries, provides water utility and other related services in California, Washington, New Mexico, and Hawaii. The company engages in the production, purchase, storage, treatment, testing, distribution, and sale of water for domestic, industrial, public, and irrigation uses, as well as for fire protection. It offers its services to approximately 482,400 customers in 100 California communities; 4,400 water and wastewater customers on the islands of Maui and Hawaii; 16,700 customers in the Tacoma and Olympia areas in Washington; and 8,000 water and wastewater customers in the Belen, Los Lunas, and Elephant Butte areas in New Mexico. The company is also involved in the provision of non-regulated water-related services, including operating water systems; providing operating and maintenance, meter reading, and billing services to private companies and municipalities; leasing communication antenna sites on its properties to telecommunication companies; billing of optional third-party insurance programs to its residential customers; operating recycled water distribution systems; and providing lab services. California Water Service Group was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  California Water Service Group (CWT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.9
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -26.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 80.7%
Total Debt to Equity 99.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 27.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
Operating Margin 16.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Net Profit Margin 8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 67.3%

CWT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CWT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $609 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by California Water Service Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of California Water Service Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CWT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for CWT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of California Water Service Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of California Water Service Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CWT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $75 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CWT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for California Water Service Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for California Water Service Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CWT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CWT are equal to 15.2%.

Life of production assets of 1.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in California Water Service Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CWT is equal to -1.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $659 million for California Water Service Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.093 million for California Water Service Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of California Water Service Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ HNA Group Plans to Acquire CWT for $1 Billion   [Apr-09-17 08:48PM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Rains Expose a New Water Problem in California: Storage   [Mar-07-17 12:57AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] An End to Californias Drought Isnt Cut and Dried   [Mar-03-17 11:09PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Californias Dams Set to Face New Stress Tests   [Feb-21-17 12:37AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Top Water Stocks to Buy in 2017 -- and the Ones to Avoid   [Jan-27-17 06:27PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying NIC Inc. (EGOV)   [Dec-09-16 04:10AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Making the Long-Term Bet on Water   [Sep-03-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of CWT Financial statements of CWT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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