Intrinsic value of California Water Service Group - CWT

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$34.85

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$34.85

 
Intrinsic value

$17.21

 
Up/down potential

-51%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CWT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.57
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  609
  621
  635
  652
  670
  690
  713
  737
  763
  792
  822
  854
  889
  926
  965
  1,007
  1,051
  1,098
  1,147
  1,199
  1,255
  1,313
  1,374
  1,439
  1,507
  1,578
  1,654
  1,733
  1,817
  1,905
  1,998
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  444
  454
  465
  478
  493
  509
  526
  545
  565
  587
  610
  634
  661
  689
  718
  750
  783
  819
  856
  895
  937
  980
  1,026
  1,075
  1,126
  1,180
  1,237
  1,297
  1,359
  1,425
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  153
  157
Total operating expenses, $m
  508
  521
  533
  546
  561
  578
  596
  615
  636
  659
  683
  708
  735
  764
  795
  827
  861
  897
  936
  976
  1,018
  1,063
  1,109
  1,158
  1,211
  1,265
  1,323
  1,383
  1,447
  1,512
  1,582
Operating income, $m
  101
  101
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  331
  351
  371
  392
  415
EBITDA, $m
  166
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  222
  234
  247
  260
  275
  290
  306
  324
  342
  361
  382
  403
  426
  450
  476
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  203
Earnings before tax, $m
  75
  71
  72
  72
  74
  75
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
Tax expense, $m
  26
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Net income, $m
  49
  52
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,412
  2,436
  2,492
  2,556
  2,628
  2,708
  2,795
  2,890
  2,993
  3,104
  3,223
  3,351
  3,487
  3,632
  3,786
  3,949
  4,122
  4,305
  4,499
  4,704
  4,920
  5,148
  5,388
  5,642
  5,909
  6,190
  6,486
  6,798
  7,126
  7,471
  7,834
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,387
  2,436
  2,492
  2,556
  2,628
  2,708
  2,795
  2,890
  2,993
  3,104
  3,223
  3,351
  3,487
  3,632
  3,786
  3,949
  4,122
  4,305
  4,499
  4,704
  4,920
  5,148
  5,388
  5,642
  5,909
  6,190
  6,486
  6,798
  7,126
  7,471
  7,834
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
Average production assets, $m
  93
  94
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
Working capital, $m
  -108
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
Total debt, $m
  655
  666
  706
  753
  805
  862
  926
  995
  1,069
  1,150
  1,236
  1,328
  1,427
  1,531
  1,643
  1,761
  1,886
  2,019
  2,159
  2,307
  2,464
  2,629
  2,803
  2,987
  3,180
  3,384
  3,598
  3,824
  4,061
  4,311
  4,574
Total liabilities, $m
  1,752
  1,764
  1,804
  1,851
  1,903
  1,960
  2,024
  2,093
  2,167
  2,248
  2,334
  2,426
  2,525
  2,629
  2,741
  2,859
  2,984
  3,117
  3,257
  3,405
  3,562
  3,727
  3,901
  4,085
  4,278
  4,482
  4,696
  4,922
  5,159
  5,409
  5,672
Total equity, $m
  659
  672
  688
  705
  725
  747
  771
  798
  826
  857
  890
  925
  962
  1,002
  1,045
  1,090
  1,138
  1,188
  1,242
  1,298
  1,358
  1,421
  1,487
  1,557
  1,631
  1,708
  1,790
  1,876
  1,967
  2,062
  2,162
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,411
  2,436
  2,492
  2,556
  2,628
  2,707
  2,795
  2,891
  2,993
  3,105
  3,224
  3,351
  3,487
  3,631
  3,786
  3,949
  4,122
  4,305
  4,499
  4,703
  4,920
  5,148
  5,388
  5,642
  5,909
  6,190
  6,486
  6,798
  7,126
  7,471
  7,834
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.994
  0.990
  1.030
  1.070
  1.110
  1.150
  1.200
  1.250
  1.290
  1.340
  1.390
  1.440
  1.480
  1.530
  1.570
  1.620
  1.660
  1.700
  1.740
  1.780
  1.810
  1.850
  1.880
  1.920
  1.950
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.090
  2.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  52
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Funds from operations, $m
  167
  71
  72
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  164
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
New CAPEX, $m
  -229
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -231
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -68
  -72
Free cash flow, $m
  -71
  143
  51
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  106
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  63
  69
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  193
  204
  214
  226
  237
  250
  263
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  63
  69
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  193
  204
  214
  226
  237
  250
  263
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  179
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  153
  162
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  350
  368
  388
  408
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  166
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
  264
  278
  292
  308
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  154
  65
  63
  60
  57
  54
  50
  46
  42
  37
  33
  29
  25
  21
  18
  15
  12
  10
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

California Water Service Group, through its subsidiaries, provides water utility and other related services in California, Washington, New Mexico, and Hawaii. The company engages in the production, purchase, storage, treatment, testing, distribution, and sale of water for domestic, industrial, public, and irrigation uses, as well as for fire protection. It offers its services to approximately 482,400 customers in 100 California communities; 4,400 water and wastewater customers on the islands of Maui and Hawaii; 16,700 customers in the Tacoma and Olympia areas in Washington; and 8,000 water and wastewater customers in the Belen, Los Lunas, and Elephant Butte areas in New Mexico. The company is also involved in the provision of non-regulated water-related services, including operating water systems; providing operating and maintenance, meter reading, and billing services to private companies and municipalities; leasing communication antenna sites on its properties to telecommunication companies; billing of optional third-party insurance programs to its residential customers; operating recycled water distribution systems; and providing lab services. California Water Service Group was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  California Water Service Group (CWT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.1
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -24.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 80.7%
Total Debt to Equity 99.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 27.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
Operating Margin 16.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Net Profit Margin 8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 67.3%

CWT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CWT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $609 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by California Water Service Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of California Water Service Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CWT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for CWT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of California Water Service Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of California Water Service Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CWT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $75 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CWT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for California Water Service Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for California Water Service Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CWT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CWT are equal to 15.2%.

Life of production assets of 1.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in California Water Service Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CWT is equal to -1.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $659 million for California Water Service Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.633 million for California Water Service Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of California Water Service Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ California Water Service Group posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 08:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ HNA Group Plans to Acquire CWT for $1 Billion   [Apr-09-17 08:48PM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Rains Expose a New Water Problem in California: Storage   [Mar-07-17 12:57AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] An End to Californias Drought Isnt Cut and Dried   [Mar-03-17 11:09PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Californias Dams Set to Face New Stress Tests   [Feb-21-17 12:37AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Top Water Stocks to Buy in 2017 -- and the Ones to Avoid   [Jan-27-17 06:27PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying NIC Inc. (EGOV)   [Dec-09-16 04:10AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Making the Long-Term Bet on Water   [Sep-03-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of CWT Financial statements of CWT Annual reports of CWT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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