Intrinsic value of California Water Service Group - CWT

Previous Close

$41.00

  Intrinsic Value

$15.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-63%

Previous close

$41.00

 
Intrinsic value

$15.25

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CWT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.57
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  609
  730
  795
  863
  934
  1,008
  1,084
  1,164
  1,246
  1,332
  1,422
  1,515
  1,611
  1,712
  1,817
  1,926
  2,039
  2,158
  2,282
  2,411
  2,546
  2,687
  2,834
  2,988
  3,149
  3,318
  3,494
  3,679
  3,872
  4,074
  4,287
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  443
  483
  524
  567
  612
  658
  706
  756
  808
  863
  919
  977
  1,038
  1,102
  1,168
  1,237
  1,309
  1,384
  1,462
  1,544
  1,630
  1,719
  1,812
  1,910
  2,012
  2,119
  2,231
  2,349
  2,471
  2,600
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  144
  147
  151
  154
  157
  161
  164
  168
  172
  175
  179
  183
  187
  191
  195
  200
  204
  209
  213
  218
  223
  228
  233
  238
  243
  248
  254
  259
  265
  271
Total operating expenses, $m
  508
  587
  630
  675
  721
  769
  819
  870
  924
  980
  1,038
  1,098
  1,160
  1,225
  1,293
  1,363
  1,437
  1,513
  1,593
  1,675
  1,762
  1,853
  1,947
  2,045
  2,148
  2,255
  2,367
  2,485
  2,608
  2,736
  2,871
Operating income, $m
  101
  143
  165
  189
  213
  239
  266
  293
  322
  352
  384
  417
  451
  486
  524
  562
  603
  645
  689
  735
  784
  834
  887
  943
  1,001
  1,062
  1,126
  1,194
  1,264
  1,338
  1,416
EBITDA, $m
  166
  357
  399
  442
  488
  535
  584
  635
  688
  744
  801
  861
  923
  989
  1,056
  1,127
  1,201
  1,278
  1,358
  1,443
  1,530
  1,622
  1,719
  1,819
  1,925
  2,035
  2,151
  2,273
  2,400
  2,533
  2,673
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  44
  54
  65
  76
  88
  100
  113
  126
  140
  154
  169
  184
  200
  217
  235
  253
  272
  291
  312
  333
  356
  379
  403
  429
  456
  484
  513
  544
  576
  609
Earnings before tax, $m
  75
  99
  111
  124
  137
  151
  165
  180
  196
  213
  230
  248
  266
  286
  306
  328
  350
  373
  398
  424
  451
  479
  508
  540
  572
  607
  643
  681
  720
  762
  806
Tax expense, $m
  26
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  95
  101
  107
  114
  122
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
Net income, $m
  49
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  224
  239
  256
  273
  290
  309
  329
  350
  371
  394
  418
  443
  469
  497
  526
  556
  589

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,412
  3,003
  3,272
  3,552
  3,844
  4,147
  4,462
  4,789
  5,130
  5,483
  5,851
  6,233
  6,631
  7,045
  7,476
  7,925
  8,393
  8,881
  9,390
  9,922
  10,477
  11,057
  11,663
  12,296
  12,959
  13,653
  14,378
  15,138
  15,934
  16,767
  17,640
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,387
  3,003
  3,272
  3,552
  3,844
  4,147
  4,462
  4,789
  5,130
  5,483
  5,851
  6,233
  6,631
  7,045
  7,476
  7,925
  8,393
  8,881
  9,390
  9,922
  10,477
  11,057
  11,663
  12,296
  12,959
  13,653
  14,378
  15,138
  15,934
  16,767
  17,640
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.255
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
  0.243
Average production assets, $m
  93
  2,140
  2,332
  2,532
  2,739
  2,956
  3,180
  3,413
  3,656
  3,908
  4,170
  4,443
  4,726
  5,021
  5,328
  5,648
  5,982
  6,330
  6,693
  7,071
  7,467
  7,880
  8,312
  8,764
  9,236
  9,731
  10,248
  10,789
  11,356
  11,950
  12,573
Working capital, $m
  -108
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -142
  -152
  -163
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -211
  -224
  -238
  -252
  -267
  -283
  -299
  -316
  -334
  -352
  -371
  -391
  -413
  -435
  -458
  -482
  -507
  -534
  -562
Total debt, $m
  655
  1,003
  1,204
  1,413
  1,631
  1,857
  2,092
  2,337
  2,591
  2,855
  3,130
  3,416
  3,713
  4,022
  4,344
  4,679
  5,029
  5,394
  5,774
  6,171
  6,586
  7,019
  7,472
  7,945
  8,440
  8,958
  9,500
  10,068
  10,662
  11,285
  11,937
Total liabilities, $m
  1,752
  2,243
  2,444
  2,653
  2,871
  3,098
  3,333
  3,578
  3,832
  4,096
  4,371
  4,656
  4,953
  5,263
  5,584
  5,920
  6,270
  6,634
  7,015
  7,412
  7,826
  8,259
  8,712
  9,185
  9,681
  10,199
  10,741
  11,308
  11,903
  12,525
  13,177
Total equity, $m
  659
  760
  828
  899
  972
  1,049
  1,129
  1,212
  1,298
  1,387
  1,480
  1,577
  1,678
  1,782
  1,891
  2,005
  2,123
  2,247
  2,376
  2,510
  2,651
  2,797
  2,951
  3,111
  3,279
  3,454
  3,638
  3,830
  4,031
  4,242
  4,463
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,411
  3,003
  3,272
  3,552
  3,843
  4,147
  4,462
  4,790
  5,130
  5,483
  5,851
  6,233
  6,631
  7,045
  7,475
  7,925
  8,393
  8,881
  9,391
  9,922
  10,477
  11,056
  11,663
  12,296
  12,960
  13,653
  14,379
  15,138
  15,934
  16,767
  17,640
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.994
  1.320
  1.450
  1.570
  1.680
  1.770
  1.850
  1.930
  2.000
  2.060
  2.110
  2.170
  2.210
  2.260
  2.300
  2.330
  2.370
  2.400
  2.430
  2.460
  2.480
  2.510
  2.530
  2.550
  2.570
  2.590
  2.610
  2.630
  2.640
  2.660
  2.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  224
  239
  256
  273
  290
  309
  329
  350
  371
  394
  418
  443
  469
  497
  526
  556
  589
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  214
  233
  253
  274
  296
  318
  342
  366
  391
  417
  444
  473
  502
  533
  565
  598
  633
  669
  707
  747
  788
  831
  876
  924
  973
  1,025
  1,079
  1,136
  1,195
  1,257
Funds from operations, $m
  167
  287
  315
  344
  374
  406
  439
  473
  509
  546
  585
  625
  667
  711
  756
  804
  854
  906
  960
  1,016
  1,076
  1,138
  1,202
  1,270
  1,341
  1,416
  1,494
  1,576
  1,662
  1,752
  1,846
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  295
  323
  353
  384
  416
  449
  484
  520
  557
  597
  637
  680
  724
  770
  818
  869
  921
  976
  1,033
  1,093
  1,156
  1,222
  1,290
  1,362
  1,438
  1,517
  1,600
  1,687
  1,778
  1,874
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -196
  -214
  -233
  -253
  -274
  -296
  -318
  -341
  -366
  -391
  -417
  -444
  -473
  -502
  -533
  -565
  -598
  -633
  -669
  -707
  -747
  -788
  -831
  -876
  -924
  -973
  -1,025
  -1,079
  -1,136
  -1,195
New CAPEX, $m
  -229
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -233
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -379
  -396
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -472
  -494
  -517
  -542
  -567
  -594
  -622
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -231
  -380
  -406
  -433
  -461
  -490
  -521
  -551
  -584
  -618
  -653
  -689
  -727
  -768
  -809
  -853
  -899
  -946
  -996
  -1,048
  -1,103
  -1,160
  -1,220
  -1,283
  -1,348
  -1,418
  -1,490
  -1,567
  -1,646
  -1,730
  -1,817
Free cash flow, $m
  -71
  -85
  -83
  -80
  -77
  -74
  -71
  -68
  -64
  -60
  -56
  -52
  -48
  -44
  -39
  -35
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -9
  -4
  2
  8
  14
  20
  27
  34
  41
  48
  56
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  106
  196
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  254
  264
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  335
  350
  365
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  473
  495
  518
  542
  568
  594
  623
  652
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  196
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  254
  264
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  335
  350
  365
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  473
  495
  518
  542
  568
  594
  623
  652
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  111
  118
  129
  140
  152
  164
  177
  190
  204
  218
  233
  249
  266
  283
  301
  320
  340
  360
  382
  405
  429
  454
  481
  509
  538
  569
  601
  635
  671
  709
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -67
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  44
  50
  58
  67
  75
  85
  94
  104
  115
  125
  137
  149
  161
  174
  187
  201
  216
  232
  248
  265
  282
  301
  321
  341
  363
  385
  409
  434
  460
  488
Discount rate, %
 
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  50
  49
  48
  46
  44
  40
  37
  33
  29
  25
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

California Water Service Group is a holding company. The Company operates through the supply and distribution of water and providing water-related utility services segment. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides non-regulated services and non-regulated services to private companies and municipalities. The bulk of the business consists of the production, purchase, storage, treatment, testing, distribution and sale of water for domestic, industrial, public and irrigation uses, and for fire protection. It also provides non-regulated water-related services. The non-regulated services include water system operation, billing and meter reading services. Non-regulated operations also include the lease of communication antenna sites, lab services and promotion of other non-regulated services. The Company under its non-regulated contract arrangements, operates municipally owned water systems, privately owned water and recycled water distribution systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  California Water Service Group (CWT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.1
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -28.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 80.7%
Total Debt to Equity 99.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 27.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
Operating Margin 16.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Net Profit Margin 8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 67.3%

CWT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CWT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $667 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by California Water Service Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of California Water Service Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CWT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for CWT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of California Water Service Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of California Water Service Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CWT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $141 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CWT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for California Water Service Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for California Water Service Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CWT stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CWT are equal to 293.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in California Water Service Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CWT is equal to -13.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $693 million for California Water Service Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48 million for California Water Service Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of California Water Service Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 9th   [May-09-18 10:06AM  Zacks]
▶ Correction: California Water Tunnels story   [May-03-18 02:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] California Water Takes SJW Offer Public   [Apr-26-18 12:18PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] California Water Made Takeover Bid for SJW   [12:06AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] California Water Made Takeover Bid for SJW   [Apr-25-18 07:30PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] California Needs a Better Approach to Water   [Mar-17-18 12:51AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Californias Water Hole   [Mar-07-18 12:03AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ California Water Service Group posts 4Q profit   [09:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ 1 Top Water Stock to Buy Now   [10:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Tiny, Mighty Dividend Stocks   [Nov-01-17 06:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ California Water Service Group posts 3Q profit   [09:24AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of CWT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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