Intrinsic value of China XD Plastics - CXDC

Previous Close

$4.90

  Intrinsic Value

$16.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+238%

Previous close

$4.90

 
Intrinsic value

$16.54

 
Up/down potential

+238%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CXDC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.32
  20.30
  18.77
  17.39
  16.15
  15.04
  14.03
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.33
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
Revenue, $m
  1,202
  1,446
  1,717
  2,016
  2,342
  2,694
  3,072
  3,475
  3,904
  4,356
  4,832
  5,331
  5,854
  6,399
  6,968
  7,560
  8,177
  8,817
  9,483
  10,175
  10,894
  11,642
  12,419
  13,227
  14,067
  14,942
  15,854
  16,803
  17,793
  18,825
  19,902
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,212
  1,439
  1,690
  1,962
  2,258
  2,574
  2,912
  3,271
  3,650
  4,049
  4,468
  4,905
  5,363
  5,839
  6,336
  6,852
  7,389
  7,947
  8,527
  9,129
  9,756
  10,407
  11,084
  11,788
  12,522
  13,285
  14,081
  14,910
  15,775
  16,677
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,034
  1,241
  1,468
  1,720
  1,993
  2,290
  2,606
  2,945
  3,305
  3,685
  4,085
  4,505
  4,943
  5,402
  5,879
  6,377
  6,894
  7,432
  7,991
  8,572
  9,175
  9,803
  10,455
  11,133
  11,839
  12,574
  13,338
  14,136
  14,966
  15,832
  16,736
Operating income, $m
  168
  206
  249
  296
  348
  405
  465
  530
  598
  671
  747
  827
  911
  998
  1,089
  1,184
  1,283
  1,386
  1,493
  1,604
  1,719
  1,839
  1,964
  2,093
  2,228
  2,369
  2,515
  2,668
  2,826
  2,992
  3,165
EBITDA, $m
  202
  246
  297
  353
  415
  481
  552
  628
  709
  794
  884
  978
  1,076
  1,179
  1,286
  1,398
  1,514
  1,635
  1,761
  1,891
  2,027
  2,168
  2,315
  2,467
  2,626
  2,791
  2,963
  3,143
  3,330
  3,525
  3,728
Interest expense (income), $m
  46
  26
  41
  59
  78
  99
  122
  147
  173
  201
  230
  261
  294
  328
  363
  400
  438
  478
  520
  563
  608
  655
  703
  754
  806
  861
  918
  977
  1,038
  1,103
  1,170
Earnings before tax, $m
  119
  180
  207
  238
  270
  305
  343
  383
  425
  470
  517
  566
  617
  671
  726
  784
  845
  907
  973
  1,040
  1,111
  1,184
  1,260
  1,339
  1,422
  1,508
  1,597
  1,691
  1,788
  1,890
  1,996
Tax expense, $m
  17
  49
  56
  64
  73
  82
  93
  103
  115
  127
  139
  153
  167
  181
  196
  212
  228
  245
  263
  281
  300
  320
  340
  362
  384
  407
  431
  456
  483
  510
  539
Net income, $m
  102
  131
  151
  173
  197
  223
  250
  279
  310
  343
  377
  413
  450
  490
  530
  573
  617
  662
  710
  759
  811
  864
  920
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,166
  1,234
  1,305
  1,379
  1,457

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  353
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,127
  2,133
  2,533
  2,974
  3,454
  3,973
  4,531
  5,126
  5,757
  6,425
  7,127
  7,863
  8,634
  9,439
  10,278
  11,151
  12,060
  13,005
  13,987
  15,008
  16,068
  17,170
  18,316
  19,508
  20,748
  22,039
  23,383
  24,783
  26,243
  27,765
  29,353
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,774
  2,133
  2,533
  2,974
  3,454
  3,973
  4,531
  5,126
  5,757
  6,425
  7,127
  7,863
  8,634
  9,439
  10,278
  11,151
  12,060
  13,005
  13,987
  15,008
  16,068
  17,170
  18,316
  19,508
  20,748
  22,039
  23,383
  24,783
  26,243
  27,765
  29,353
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
Average production assets, $m
  714
  859
  1,020
  1,198
  1,391
  1,600
  1,825
  2,064
  2,319
  2,587
  2,870
  3,167
  3,477
  3,801
  4,139
  4,491
  4,857
  5,237
  5,633
  6,044
  6,471
  6,915
  7,377
  7,857
  8,356
  8,876
  9,417
  9,981
  10,569
  11,182
  11,822
Working capital, $m
  240
  399
  474
  556
  646
  744
  848
  959
  1,077
  1,202
  1,334
  1,471
  1,616
  1,766
  1,923
  2,087
  2,257
  2,434
  2,617
  2,808
  3,007
  3,213
  3,428
  3,651
  3,883
  4,124
  4,376
  4,638
  4,911
  5,196
  5,493
Total debt, $m
  694
  551
  786
  1,045
  1,326
  1,631
  1,959
  2,308
  2,679
  3,070
  3,482
  3,915
  4,367
  4,839
  5,332
  5,845
  6,378
  6,933
  7,509
  8,108
  8,731
  9,378
  10,051
  10,750
  11,478
  12,236
  13,025
  13,847
  14,703
  15,597
  16,529
Total liabilities, $m
  1,395
  1,252
  1,487
  1,746
  2,027
  2,332
  2,660
  3,009
  3,380
  3,771
  4,183
  4,616
  5,068
  5,540
  6,033
  6,546
  7,079
  7,634
  8,210
  8,809
  9,432
  10,079
  10,752
  11,451
  12,179
  12,937
  13,726
  14,548
  15,404
  16,298
  17,230
Total equity, $m
  732
  881
  1,046
  1,228
  1,427
  1,641
  1,871
  2,117
  2,378
  2,653
  2,943
  3,247
  3,566
  3,898
  4,245
  4,605
  4,981
  5,371
  5,777
  6,198
  6,636
  7,091
  7,565
  8,057
  8,569
  9,102
  9,657
  10,235
  10,838
  11,467
  12,123
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,127
  2,133
  2,533
  2,974
  3,454
  3,973
  4,531
  5,126
  5,758
  6,424
  7,126
  7,863
  8,634
  9,438
  10,278
  11,151
  12,060
  13,005
  13,987
  15,007
  16,068
  17,170
  18,317
  19,508
  20,748
  22,039
  23,383
  24,783
  26,242
  27,765
  29,353
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.948
  0.630
  0.750
  0.850
  0.930
  0.990
  1.050
  1.090
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.210
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.340
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  131
  151
  173
  197
  223
  250
  279
  310
  343
  377
  413
  450
  490
  530
  573
  617
  662
  710
  759
  811
  864
  920
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,166
  1,234
  1,305
  1,379
  1,457
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  76
  87
  98
  110
  123
  137
  151
  166
  181
  197
  214
  231
  249
  268
  288
  308
  329
  351
  374
  398
  423
  448
  475
  503
  532
  563
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  172
  200
  230
  263
  299
  337
  378
  421
  466
  514
  564
  616
  671
  727
  786
  848
  912
  978
  1,047
  1,119
  1,194
  1,271
  1,352
  1,436
  1,523
  1,615
  1,709
  1,809
  1,912
  2,020
Change in working capital, $m
  -68
  67
  75
  82
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  262
  273
  285
  297
Cash from operations, $m
  84
  105
  125
  148
  174
  202
  233
  266
  303
  341
  382
  426
  472
  520
  570
  623
  678
  735
  794
  856
  921
  987
  1,057
  1,129
  1,204
  1,282
  1,363
  1,447
  1,535
  1,627
  1,722
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -57
  -66
  -76
  -87
  -98
  -110
  -123
  -137
  -151
  -166
  -181
  -197
  -214
  -231
  -249
  -268
  -288
  -308
  -329
  -351
  -374
  -398
  -423
  -448
  -475
  -503
  -532
New CAPEX, $m
  -211
  -145
  -161
  -177
  -193
  -209
  -225
  -240
  -254
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -366
  -381
  -396
  -411
  -427
  -444
  -462
  -480
  -499
  -520
  -541
  -564
  -588
  -613
  -640
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -149
  -179
  -202
  -226
  -250
  -275
  -301
  -327
  -352
  -379
  -406
  -434
  -461
  -490
  -519
  -549
  -580
  -612
  -645
  -679
  -715
  -752
  -791
  -831
  -873
  -918
  -964
  -1,012
  -1,063
  -1,116
  -1,172
Free cash flow, $m
  -65
  -74
  -77
  -78
  -77
  -74
  -68
  -60
  -50
  -38
  -23
  -7
  11
  30
  51
  74
  98
  123
  150
  177
  206
  235
  266
  298
  330
  364
  399
  435
  472
  511
  550
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  164
  210
  235
  259
  282
  305
  327
  349
  371
  392
  412
  432
  452
  472
  492
  513
  533
  555
  576
  599
  623
  647
  673
  700
  728
  758
  789
  822
  857
  894
  932
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  17
  14
  9
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  122
  227
  249
  268
  283
  305
  327
  349
  371
  392
  412
  432
  452
  472
  492
  513
  533
  555
  576
  599
  623
  647
  673
  700
  728
  758
  789
  822
  857
  894
  932
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  48
  153
  172
  189
  206
  231
  259
  289
  321
  354
  389
  425
  463
  503
  544
  587
  631
  678
  726
  776
  828
  882
  939
  997
  1,058
  1,122
  1,188
  1,257
  1,329
  1,404
  1,483
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -56
  -149
  -165
  -182
  -198
  -215
  -230
  -246
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -304
  -318
  -332
  -347
  -361
  -375
  -390
  -406
  -421
  -438
  -455
  -473
  -492
  -512
  -533
  -555
  -578
  -603
  -629
  -656
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  4
  7
  7
  8
  17
  29
  43
  60
  78
  99
  121
  145
  170
  197
  226
  256
  288
  320
  355
  390
  427
  465
  505
  546
  589
  633
  679
  726
  776
  827
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  4
  6
  6
  6
  13
  20
  28
  35
  42
  47
  52
  55
  57
  57
  56
  54
  51
  47
  43
  38
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.7
  94.6
  93.5
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4
  93.4

China XD Plastics Company Limited (China XD) is a specialty chemical company. The Company is engaged in the research, development, manufacture and sale of modified plastics for automotive applications in China and to a lesser extent, in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Company operates in the modified plastics segment. Through its subsidiaries, Heilongjiang Xinda Enterprise Group Company Limited (HLJ Xinda Group) and AL Composites Materials FZE (Dubai Composites), the Company manufactures and sells polymer composite materials (including modified plastics), for automotive applications. The Company's products categories include Modified Polypropylene (PP), Modified Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS), Modified Polyamide 66 (PA66), Modified Polyamide 6 (PA6), Modified Polyoxymethylenes (POM), Modified Polyphenylene Oxide (PPO), Plastic Alloy, Modified Polyphenylene Sulfide (PPS), Modified Polyimide (PI), Modified Polylactic Acid (PLA) and Poly Ether Ether Ketone (PEEK).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  China XD Plastics (CXDC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2.4
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -24.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 58.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 34%
Total Debt to Equity 94.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 14.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
EBITDA Margin 16.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Operating Margin 14%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Payout Ratio 0%

CXDC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CXDC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1202 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by China XD Plastics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of China XD Plastics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CXDC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for CXDC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of China XD Plastics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of China XD Plastics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CXDC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $28 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CXDC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.5% for China XD Plastics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for China XD Plastics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CXDC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CXDC are equal to 59.4%.

Life of production assets of 21 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in China XD Plastics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CXDC is equal to 27.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $732 million for China XD Plastics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.512 million for China XD Plastics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of China XD Plastics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ China XD posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 11:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ China XD posts 1Q profit   [May-10-17 08:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ China XD posts 4Q profit   [08:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ China XD Plastics Co Ltd (CXDC) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Nov-28  09:35AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Black Diamond Inc (BDE)   [03:59AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ China XD Plastics Provides Business Update   [Sep-15  08:30AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of CXDC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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