Intrinsic value of Columbia Property Trust - CXP

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$22.35

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CXP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CXP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -16.25
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  474
  483
  495
  507
  522
  537
  555
  574
  594
  616
  640
  665
  692
  721
  751
  784
  818
  854
  893
  934
  976
  1,022
  1,069
  1,120
  1,173
  1,229
  1,287
  1,349
  1,414
  1,483
  1,555
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  379
  387
  397
  408
  421
  434
  449
  465
  482
  501
  521
  542
  564
  588
  614
  641
  669
  699
  731
  765
  800
  837
  877
  918
  962
  1,008
  1,056
  1,107
  1,161
  1,217
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
Total operating expenses, $m
  393
  403
  411
  422
  433
  447
  461
  476
  493
  511
  530
  551
  573
  596
  620
  647
  675
  704
  735
  768
  803
  839
  877
  918
  960
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
  1,153
  1,208
  1,265
Operating income, $m
  80
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
EBITDA, $m
  242
  246
  252
  259
  266
  274
  283
  293
  304
  315
  328
  341
  356
  371
  387
  404
  423
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  613
  644
  675
  709
  744
  781
  820
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
Earnings before tax, $m
  92
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Net income, $m
  84
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  216
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,300
  4,168
  4,264
  4,373
  4,496
  4,633
  4,782
  4,945
  5,121
  5,311
  5,515
  5,733
  5,966
  6,214
  6,477
  6,756
  7,053
  7,366
  7,697
  8,048
  8,417
  8,808
  9,219
  9,653
  10,110
  10,591
  11,098
  11,631
  12,192
  12,783
  13,404
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,084
  4,168
  4,264
  4,373
  4,496
  4,633
  4,782
  4,945
  5,121
  5,311
  5,515
  5,733
  5,966
  6,214
  6,477
  6,756
  7,053
  7,366
  7,697
  8,048
  8,417
  8,808
  9,219
  9,653
  10,110
  10,591
  11,098
  11,631
  12,192
  12,783
  13,404
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
Average production assets, $m
  2,801
  2,857
  2,923
  2,998
  3,082
  3,175
  3,278
  3,390
  3,510
  3,641
  3,780
  3,930
  4,089
  4,259
  4,440
  4,631
  4,834
  5,049
  5,276
  5,516
  5,770
  6,037
  6,319
  6,616
  6,930
  7,260
  7,607
  7,972
  8,357
  8,762
  9,188
Working capital, $m
  0
  -220
  -226
  -231
  -238
  -245
  -253
  -262
  -271
  -281
  -292
  -303
  -316
  -329
  -343
  -357
  -373
  -390
  -407
  -426
  -445
  -466
  -488
  -511
  -535
  -560
  -587
  -615
  -645
  -676
  -709
Total debt, $m
  1,534
  1,571
  1,613
  1,661
  1,715
  1,775
  1,841
  1,913
  1,990
  2,074
  2,164
  2,260
  2,362
  2,471
  2,587
  2,710
  2,840
  2,978
  3,124
  3,278
  3,441
  3,612
  3,793
  3,984
  4,185
  4,397
  4,620
  4,855
  5,102
  5,361
  5,635
Total liabilities, $m
  1,797
  1,834
  1,876
  1,924
  1,978
  2,038
  2,104
  2,176
  2,253
  2,337
  2,427
  2,523
  2,625
  2,734
  2,850
  2,973
  3,103
  3,241
  3,387
  3,541
  3,704
  3,875
  4,056
  4,247
  4,448
  4,660
  4,883
  5,118
  5,365
  5,624
  5,898
Total equity, $m
  2,503
  2,334
  2,388
  2,449
  2,518
  2,594
  2,678
  2,769
  2,868
  2,974
  3,089
  3,211
  3,341
  3,480
  3,627
  3,784
  3,949
  4,125
  4,311
  4,507
  4,714
  4,932
  5,163
  5,406
  5,661
  5,931
  6,215
  6,513
  6,828
  7,158
  7,506
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,300
  4,168
  4,264
  4,373
  4,496
  4,632
  4,782
  4,945
  5,121
  5,311
  5,516
  5,734
  5,966
  6,214
  6,477
  6,757
  7,052
  7,366
  7,698
  8,048
  8,418
  8,807
  9,219
  9,653
  10,109
  10,591
  11,098
  11,631
  12,193
  12,782
  13,404
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.613
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  84
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  162
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  189
  196
  203
  210
  219
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  365
  382
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  531
Funds from operations, $m
  200
  185
  190
  194
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  476
  499
  524
  550
  577
  605
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Cash from operations, $m
  193
  -242
  195
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  316
  331
  346
  362
  379
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  502
  526
  552
  579
  608
  638
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -162
  -165
  -169
  -173
  -178
  -184
  -189
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -401
  -420
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -506
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -56
  -66
  -75
  -84
  -93
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -180
  -192
  -203
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -253
  -267
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -366
  -385
  -405
  -426
Cash from investing activities, $m
  526
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -287
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -386
  -406
  -426
  -449
  -471
  -494
  -519
  -545
  -572
  -601
  -631
  -662
  -695
  -731
  -767
  -806
  -846
  -888
  -932
Free cash flow, $m
  719
  -460
  -36
  -44
  -51
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -294
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -330
  37
  42
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -54
  254
  48
  57
  66
  75
  84
  92
  101
  110
  118
  127
  137
  146
  156
  165
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  317
  334
  351
  369
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -387
  291
  90
  105
  120
  135
  150
  164
  179
  194
  208
  223
  239
  255
  272
  288
  306
  324
  343
  362
  383
  404
  426
  449
  473
  499
  525
  552
  581
  611
  642
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  331
  -423
  6
  4
  3
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  111
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -314
  -331
  -348
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  216
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.7
  89.0
  87.1
  85.0
  82.7
  80.4
  77.9
  75.4
  72.8
  70.2
  67.6
  65.1
  62.6
  60.1
  57.7
  55.3
  53.0
  50.8
  48.6
  46.5
  44.5
  42.6
  40.7
  38.9
  37.1
  35.5
  33.9
  32.4
  30.9
  29.5

Columbia Property Trust, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of the United States. It focuses on investing in and managing high-quality commercial office properties. The firm was formerly known as Wells Real Estate Investment Trust II Inc. Columbia Property Trust, Inc was founded in July 2003 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Columbia Property Trust (CXP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.5
Price to Sales 5.8
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -51.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 61.3%
Total Debt to Equity 61.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital 2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 3.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.9%
EBITDA Margin 53.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.9%
Operating Margin 17.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Net Profit Margin 17.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Payout Ratio 176.2%

CXP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CXP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $474 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Columbia Property Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Columbia Property Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CXP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for CXP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Columbia Property Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Columbia Property Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CXP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $23 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CXP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Columbia Property Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Columbia Property Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CXP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CXP are equal to 590.9%.

Life of production assets of 17.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Columbia Property Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CXP is equal to -45.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2503 million for Columbia Property Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 121.604 million for Columbia Property Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Columbia Property Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Columbia Property Trust Declares Second Quarter Dividend   [May-02-17 05:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Columbia reports 1Q results   [Apr-27-17 05:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Pay Pal co-founder's fintech firm inks big lease in San Francisco   [Apr-12-17 03:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Columbia reports 4Q results   [Feb-09-17 05:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Manchester United PLC (MANU)?   [Dec-14-16 08:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Columbia Property Trust Inc (CXP) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-11-16 07:02AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is SLM Corp (SLM) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-02-16 02:51AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Toastmasters' Colorado HQ relocation to bring 325 employees   [Oct-21-16 04:40PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Columbia Property Trust to Present at REITWeek 2016   [Jun-06-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of CXP Financial statements of CXP Annual reports of CXP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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