Intrinsic value of Changyou.com ADR - CYOU

Previous Close

$40.15

  Intrinsic Value

$43.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+8%

  Value-price divergence*

-156%

Previous close

$40.15

 
Intrinsic value

$43.51

 
Up/down potential

+8%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-156%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CYOU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -31.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  525
  536
  548
  562
  578
  595
  614
  635
  658
  682
  709
  737
  767
  798
  832
  868
  906
  946
  989
  1,034
  1,081
  1,132
  1,184
  1,240
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,642
  1,722
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  421
  431
  442
  454
  468
  483
  499
  517
  536
  557
  576
  599
  624
  651
  679
  708
  740
  773
  808
  846
  885
  926
  970
  1,016
  1,064
  1,115
  1,168
  1,225
  1,284
  1,346
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  395
  421
  431
  442
  454
  468
  483
  499
  517
  536
  557
  576
  599
  624
  651
  679
  708
  740
  773
  808
  846
  885
  926
  970
  1,016
  1,064
  1,115
  1,168
  1,225
  1,284
  1,346
Operating income, $m
  131
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  161
  167
  174
  182
  189
  198
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  271
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  376
EBITDA, $m
  157
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  163
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
  401
  420
  441
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  0
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
Earnings before tax, $m
  169
  114
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  139
  144
  148
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  338
Tax expense, $m
  22
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
Net income, $m
  145
  83
  87
  88
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  105
  108
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,178
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,708
  602
  616
  631
  649
  669
  690
  714
  739
  767
  796
  828
  861
  897
  935
  975
  1,018
  1,063
  1,111
  1,162
  1,215
  1,271
  1,331
  1,393
  1,459
  1,529
  1,602
  1,679
  1,760
  1,845
  1,935
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  530
  602
  616
  631
  649
  669
  690
  714
  739
  767
  796
  828
  861
  897
  935
  975
  1,018
  1,063
  1,111
  1,162
  1,215
  1,271
  1,331
  1,393
  1,459
  1,529
  1,602
  1,679
  1,760
  1,845
  1,935
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.991
  0.890
  0.890
  0.891
  0.891
  0.889
  0.890
  0.889
  0.890
  0.889
  0.891
  0.890
  0.891
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.891
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
Average production assets, $m
  221
  225
  230
  236
  243
  250
  258
  267
  276
  287
  298
  309
  322
  335
  350
  365
  381
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  497
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  690
  723
Working capital, $m
  949
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
Total debt, $m
  0
  -48
  -36
  -22
  -6
  12
  31
  52
  75
  100
  127
  155
  185
  217
  252
  288
  326
  367
  410
  456
  504
  554
  608
  664
  723
  786
  852
  921
  994
  1,071
  1,151
Total liabilities, $m
  590
  542
  554
  568
  584
  602
  621
  642
  665
  690
  717
  745
  775
  807
  842
  878
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,094
  1,144
  1,198
  1,254
  1,313
  1,376
  1,442
  1,511
  1,584
  1,661
  1,741
Total equity, $m
  1,118
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  193
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,708
  602
  616
  631
  649
  669
  690
  713
  739
  767
  797
  828
  861
  897
  936
  976
  1,018
  1,063
  1,111
  1,162
  1,216
  1,271
  1,331
  1,393
  1,459
  1,529
  1,602
  1,679
  1,760
  1,846
  1,934
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.810
  -0.590
  -0.350
  -0.090
  0.180
  0.450
  0.740
  1.020
  1.310
  1.590
  1.870
  2.150
  2.420
  2.690
  2.950
  3.200
  3.450
  3.690
  3.920
  4.140
  4.360
  4.570
  4.770
  4.960
  5.140
  5.320
  5.490
  5.650
  5.800
  5.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.113
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  145
  83
  87
  88
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  105
  108
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
Funds from operations, $m
  200
  106
  110
  112
  115
  118
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  142
  147
  153
  158
  165
  171
  178
  186
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  194
  107
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  131
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  225
  234
  245
  256
  267
  280
  292
  306
  320
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
Free cash flow, $m
  189
  83
  86
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  106
  110
  113
  117
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  224
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -147
  -48
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -147
  -48
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  27
  35
  98
  101
  105
  108
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -89
  -60
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,118
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,092
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  127
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,047
  89
  87
  85
  83
  80
  77
  74
  70
  67
  62
  58
  54
  50
  45
  41
  36
  32
  28
  24
  21
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Changyou.com Limited develops and operates online games in the People’s Republic of China. The company operates through Online Game, Platform Channel, and Others segments. It develops, operates, and licenses online games, including interactive online games that are accessed and played simultaneously by various game players through personal computers; mobile games played on mobile devices; and Web games, which are online games that are played through a Web browser. The company also operates 17173.com Website, an information portal that provides news, electronic forums, online videos, and other information services on online games to game players, as well as sells pre-film cinema advertising slots to advertisers. As of December 31, 2015, the company had approximately 7.3 million total average monthly active accounts; and 2.1 million total active paying accounts. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China. Changyou.com Limited is a subsidiary of Sohu.com Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Changyou.com ADR (CYOU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29
Price to Sales 8
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -31.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -63.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 35
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 11.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 13.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.1%
EBITDA Margin 38.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.8%
Operating Margin 24.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Net Profit Margin 27.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Effective Tax Rate 13%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CYOU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CYOU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $525 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Changyou.com ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Changyou.com ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CYOU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CYOU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Changyou.com ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Changyou.com ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CYOU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CYOU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Changyou.com ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Changyou.com ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CYOU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CYOU are equal to 42%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Changyou.com ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CYOU is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1118 million for Changyou.com ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.595 million for Changyou.com ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Changyou.com ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
NTES Netease ADR 274.74 4,505.92  str.buy
YY YY ADR 76.23 352.38  str.buy
SOHU Sohu.com 54.84 6.60  str.sell
SINA Sina 99.23 95.85  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Trade of the Day: Changyou.com Ltd (ADR) (CYOU)   [Aug-22-17 09:08AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for August 18th   [Aug-18-17 07:51AM  Zacks]
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▶ 3 Growth Stocks for In-the-Know Investors   [Aug-02-17 05:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sohu.com Stock Hits New Highs After Earnings   [Aug-01-17 10:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Changyou.Com posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 11:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ China's Sohu.com Surges On Second-Quarter Sales Beat, Guidance   [04:13PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 3 Stocks Wall Street Wants to Keep Secret   [Jun-26-17 09:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Changyou.com Ltd. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Five Strong Buys Bucking Market Trends   [May-18-17 07:18PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Changyou.com Ltd. : May 4, 2017   [May-04-17 03:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sohu.com Stock Tries to Earn Its Way Back   [11:25AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Changyou.Com posts 1Q profit   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sohu.com Stock Earns Some Redemption   [01:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sohu.com Stock Earns Some Redemption   [01:02PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Changyou.Com posts 4Q profit   [08:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Changyou.Com Ltd (ADR) (CYOU) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 10:28PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Sohu.com Earnings: Will Weakness at Sogou Bite Baidu?   [Oct-25-16 10:04AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of CYOU Financial statements of CYOU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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