Intrinsic value of CYS Investments - CYS

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$8.69

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CYS.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.88
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  295
  301
  308
  316
  325
  334
  345
  357
  370
  383
  398
  414
  431
  449
  468
  488
  509
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  765
  801
  840
  880
  923
  968
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  94
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
Operating income, $m
  201
  243
  248
  255
  262
  270
  279
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  362
  377
  394
  411
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  710
  745
  781
EBITDA, $m
  201
  243
  248
  255
  262
  270
  279
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  362
  377
  394
  411
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  710
  745
  781
Interest expense (income), $m
  117
  339
  353
  362
  373
  386
  400
  415
  431
  449
  469
  489
  512
  535
  560
  587
  615
  645
  677
  711
  746
  784
  824
  865
  909
  956
  1,005
  1,056
  1,110
  1,167
  1,227
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  -96
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -205
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -256
  -271
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -339
  -358
  -379
  -400
  -423
  -446
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  16
  -96
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -205
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -256
  -271
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -339
  -358
  -379
  -400
  -423
  -446

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,245
  13,677
  13,992
  14,351
  14,755
  15,202
  15,693
  16,228
  16,806
  17,430
  18,098
  18,814
  19,578
  20,391
  21,255
  22,172
  23,143
  24,172
  25,259
  26,409
  27,622
  28,902
  30,253
  31,676
  33,175
  34,755
  36,418
  38,168
  40,010
  41,947
  43,986
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,244
  13,677
  13,992
  14,351
  14,755
  15,202
  15,693
  16,228
  16,806
  17,430
  18,098
  18,814
  19,578
  20,391
  21,255
  22,172
  23,143
  24,172
  25,259
  26,409
  27,622
  28,902
  30,253
  31,676
  33,175
  34,755
  36,418
  38,168
  40,010
  41,947
  43,986
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
  0.022
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  150
  154
  158
  162
  167
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  304
  318
  333
  348
  365
  382
  401
  420
  440
  461
  484
Total debt, $m
  9,692
  10,074
  10,352
  10,670
  11,027
  11,422
  11,856
  12,328
  12,840
  13,391
  13,982
  14,615
  15,290
  16,008
  16,772
  17,583
  18,442
  19,351
  20,312
  21,328
  22,401
  23,533
  24,726
  25,984
  27,310
  28,706
  30,176
  31,724
  33,352
  35,065
  36,866
Total liabilities, $m
  11,710
  12,091
  12,369
  12,687
  13,044
  13,439
  13,873
  14,345
  14,857
  15,408
  15,999
  16,632
  17,307
  18,025
  18,789
  19,600
  20,459
  21,368
  22,329
  23,345
  24,418
  25,550
  26,743
  28,001
  29,327
  30,723
  32,193
  33,741
  35,369
  37,082
  38,883
Total equity, $m
  1,536
  1,587
  1,623
  1,665
  1,712
  1,763
  1,820
  1,882
  1,950
  2,022
  2,099
  2,182
  2,271
  2,365
  2,466
  2,572
  2,685
  2,804
  2,930
  3,063
  3,204
  3,353
  3,509
  3,674
  3,848
  4,032
  4,224
  4,427
  4,641
  4,866
  5,102
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,246
  13,678
  13,992
  14,352
  14,756
  15,202
  15,693
  16,227
  16,807
  17,430
  18,098
  18,814
  19,578
  20,390
  21,255
  22,172
  23,144
  24,172
  25,259
  26,408
  27,622
  28,903
  30,252
  31,675
  33,175
  34,755
  36,417
  38,168
  40,010
  41,948
  43,985
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.310
  6.350
  6.380
  6.410
  6.440
  6.480
  6.510
  6.550
  6.590
  6.620
  6.660
  6.700
  6.730
  6.770
  6.800
  6.840
  6.870
  6.900
  6.930
  6.960
  6.990
  7.020
  7.050
  7.070
  7.100
  7.120
  7.140
  7.170
  7.190
  7.210
  7.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  -96
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -205
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -256
  -271
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -339
  -358
  -379
  -400
  -423
  -446
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  167
  -96
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -205
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -256
  -271
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -339
  -358
  -379
  -400
  -423
  -446
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  168
  -99
  -108
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -285
  -301
  -319
  -337
  -356
  -376
  -398
  -420
  -444
  -469
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1,399
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  1,567
  -99
  -108
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -285
  -301
  -319
  -337
  -356
  -376
  -398
  -420
  -444
  -469
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,396
  383
  278
  318
  357
  395
  434
  472
  511
  551
  591
  633
  675
  719
  764
  811
  859
  909
  961
  1,016
  1,073
  1,132
  1,194
  1,258
  1,326
  1,396
  1,470
  1,547
  1,628
  1,713
  1,802
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,402
  383
  278
  318
  357
  395
  434
  472
  511
  551
  591
  633
  675
  719
  764
  811
  859
  909
  961
  1,016
  1,073
  1,132
  1,194
  1,258
  1,326
  1,396
  1,470
  1,547
  1,628
  1,713
  1,802
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  165
  283
  170
  206
  241
  274
  307
  340
  372
  404
  437
  469
  503
  537
  571
  607
  644
  682
  721
  761
  803
  847
  892
  939
  989
  1,040
  1,094
  1,149
  1,208
  1,269
  1,333
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  159
  -51
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -236
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  233
  134
  165
  194
  223
  250
  278
  305
  332
  359
  386
  414
  442
  471
  501
  531
  562
  595
  628
  662
  698
  736
  774
  815
  857
  901
  946
  994
  1,044
  1,097
Discount rate, %
 
  13.90
  14.60
  15.32
  16.09
  16.90
  17.74
  18.63
  19.56
  20.54
  21.56
  22.64
  23.77
  24.96
  26.21
  27.52
  28.90
  30.34
  31.86
  33.45
  35.12
  36.88
  38.72
  40.66
  42.69
  44.83
  47.07
  49.42
  51.90
  54.49
  57.21
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  204
  102
  107
  107
  102
  94
  84
  73
  62
  51
  41
  32
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CYS Investments, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage pass-through certificates in the United States. It primarily purchases Agency residential mortgage backed securities that are issued, and the principal and interest of which are guaranteed by a federally chartered corporation; and debt securities issued by the United States Department of Treasury. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. The company was formerly known as Cypress Sharpridge Investments, Inc. and changed its name to CYS Investments, Inc. in September 2011. CYS Investments, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CYS Investments (CYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 82.3
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 631%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.1%
EBITDA Margin 45.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.4%
Operating Margin 68.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.1%
Net Profit Margin 5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 1087.5%

CYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $295 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CYS Investments. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CYS Investments. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.9%, whose default value for CYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CYS Investments, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CYS Investments.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CYS Investments.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CYS Investments. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CYS are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CYS Investments operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CYS is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1536 million for CYS Investments - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 152.091 million for CYS Investments is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CYS Investments at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 12% Yielder CYS Climbs After Q1 Earnings Beat   [Apr-20-17 01:11PM  Barrons.com]
▶ CYS beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-19-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ CYS reports 4Q loss   [Feb-15-17 06:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ CYS Investments, Inc. to Host 2017 Analyst and Investor Day   [Jan-06-17 04:20PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About CYS Investments Inc (CYS)   [Dec-14-16 08:42AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Mortgage REITs Look Better as Yield Curve Steepens: 5 Picks   [Nov-28-16 05:30PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ CYS Investments Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Monday (CYS)   [Jun-20-16 11:07AM  at Investopedia]
▶ CYS misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-20-16 04:29PM  AP]
▶ A 'Better Year In 2016' For CYS Investments: Wuderlich   [Feb-16-16 12:38PM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of CYS Financial statements of CYS Annual reports of CYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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