Intrinsic value of Danaos - DAC

Previous Close

$1.45

  Intrinsic Value

$4.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+182%

  Value-price divergence*

+10%

Previous close

$1.45

 
Intrinsic value

$4.09

 
Up/down potential

+182%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+10%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DAC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.32
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  498
  508
  520
  533
  548
  565
  583
  603
  624
  647
  672
  699
  727
  757
  789
  823
  860
  898
  938
  981
  1,026
  1,073
  1,124
  1,176
  1,232
  1,291
  1,353
  1,418
  1,486
  1,558
  1,634
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  290
  296
  304
  312
  322
  332
  344
  356
  369
  383
  398
  414
  432
  450
  469
  490
  512
  535
  559
  585
  612
  640
  671
  702
  736
  771
  808
  847
  888
  931
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  711
  290
  296
  304
  312
  322
  332
  344
  356
  369
  383
  398
  414
  432
  450
  469
  490
  512
  535
  559
  585
  612
  640
  671
  702
  736
  771
  808
  847
  888
  931
Operating income, $m
  -213
  218
  223
  229
  236
  243
  251
  259
  268
  278
  289
  300
  313
  326
  339
  354
  370
  386
  403
  422
  441
  462
  483
  506
  530
  555
  582
  610
  639
  670
  702
EBITDA, $m
  -84
  350
  358
  367
  378
  389
  402
  415
  430
  446
  463
  482
  501
  522
  544
  568
  592
  619
  647
  676
  707
  740
  774
  811
  849
  890
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,074
  1,126
Interest expense (income), $m
  69
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  271
  285
Earnings before tax, $m
  -366
  131
  134
  137
  141
  146
  150
  156
  161
  167
  173
  180
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  288
  302
  316
  331
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
Tax expense, $m
  0
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
Net income, $m
  -366
  95
  98
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  220
  231
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,127
  3,195
  3,268
  3,352
  3,446
  3,551
  3,666
  3,790
  3,926
  4,071
  4,227
  4,395
  4,573
  4,763
  4,965
  5,179
  5,406
  5,646
  5,900
  6,168
  6,452
  6,751
  7,066
  7,399
  7,749
  8,118
  8,506
  8,915
  9,345
  9,798
  10,274
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,053
  3,195
  3,268
  3,352
  3,446
  3,551
  3,666
  3,790
  3,926
  4,071
  4,227
  4,395
  4,573
  4,763
  4,965
  5,179
  5,406
  5,646
  5,900
  6,168
  6,452
  6,751
  7,066
  7,399
  7,749
  8,118
  8,506
  8,915
  9,345
  9,798
  10,274
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.163
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
Average production assets, $m
  3,177
  3,240
  3,315
  3,400
  3,496
  3,602
  3,718
  3,845
  3,982
  4,129
  4,288
  4,457
  4,638
  4,831
  5,035
  5,253
  5,483
  5,727
  5,984
  6,256
  6,544
  6,847
  7,167
  7,504
  7,860
  8,234
  8,628
  9,042
  9,479
  9,938
  10,421
Working capital, $m
  -2,430
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Total debt, $m
  2,505
  2,562
  2,624
  2,695
  2,775
  2,863
  2,960
  3,065
  3,179
  3,302
  3,434
  3,575
  3,726
  3,886
  4,056
  4,237
  4,428
  4,631
  4,846
  5,072
  5,311
  5,564
  5,830
  6,111
  6,406
  6,718
  7,045
  7,390
  7,754
  8,136
  8,537
Total liabilities, $m
  2,639
  2,696
  2,758
  2,829
  2,909
  2,997
  3,094
  3,199
  3,313
  3,436
  3,568
  3,709
  3,860
  4,020
  4,190
  4,371
  4,562
  4,765
  4,980
  5,206
  5,445
  5,698
  5,964
  6,245
  6,540
  6,852
  7,179
  7,524
  7,888
  8,270
  8,671
Total equity, $m
  488
  498
  510
  523
  538
  554
  572
  591
  612
  635
  659
  686
  713
  743
  774
  808
  843
  881
  920
  962
  1,006
  1,053
  1,102
  1,154
  1,209
  1,266
  1,327
  1,391
  1,458
  1,528
  1,603
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,127
  3,194
  3,268
  3,352
  3,447
  3,551
  3,666
  3,790
  3,925
  4,071
  4,227
  4,395
  4,573
  4,763
  4,964
  5,179
  5,405
  5,646
  5,900
  6,168
  6,451
  6,751
  7,066
  7,399
  7,749
  8,118
  8,506
  8,915
  9,346
  9,798
  10,274
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.133
  5.140
  5.150
  5.150
  5.160
  5.170
  5.180
  5.180
  5.190
  5.200
  5.210
  5.210
  5.220
  5.230
  5.240
  5.240
  5.250
  5.260
  5.260
  5.270
  5.280
  5.280
  5.290
  5.290
  5.300
  5.300
  5.310
  5.310
  5.320
  5.320
  5.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.136
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -366
  95
  98
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  220
  231
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  129
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  189
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  424
Funds from operations, $m
  252
  227
  232
  238
  245
  253
  261
  270
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
  458
  480
  502
  525
  550
  576
  604
  633
  663
  695
  729
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  262
  227
  232
  238
  245
  253
  261
  270
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
  458
  479
  502
  525
  550
  576
  604
  632
  663
  695
  728
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -129
  -132
  -135
  -138
  -142
  -146
  -151
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -385
  -404
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -64
  -75
  -85
  -96
  -106
  -116
  -127
  -137
  -148
  -158
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -337
  -355
  -374
  -394
  -415
  -436
  -459
  -483
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -193
  -207
  -220
  -234
  -248
  -262
  -278
  -293
  -310
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -382
  -401
  -422
  -444
  -467
  -491
  -515
  -541
  -569
  -598
  -628
  -660
  -693
  -729
  -766
  -804
  -844
  -887
Free cash flow, $m
  253
  34
  26
  19
  11
  5
  -2
  -8
  -14
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -37
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -150
  -158
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -251
  57
  62
  71
  80
  88
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  141
  151
  160
  170
  181
  192
  203
  214
  227
  239
  252
  266
  281
  296
  311
  328
  345
  363
  382
  402
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -251
  57
  62
  71
  80
  88
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  141
  151
  160
  170
  181
  192
  203
  214
  227
  239
  252
  266
  281
  296
  311
  328
  345
  363
  382
  402
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  92
  88
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  354
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  81
  77
  76
  76
  77
  77
  78
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  112
  116
  121
  125
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
Discount rate, %
 
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  73
  60
  53
  45
  39
  33
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Danaos Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates containerships in Greece and internationally. The company offers seaborne transportation services, as well as charters its vessels to liner companies. As of March 18, 2016, it had a fleet of 59 containerships aggregating 353,586 twenty foot equivalent units. The company was formerly known as Danaos Holdings Limited and changed its name to Danaos Corporation in October 2005. Danaos Corporation was founded in 1972 and is based in Piraeus, Greece.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Danaos (DAC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.4
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 513.3%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Return On Total Capital -11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Return On Equity -55%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.8%
EBITDA Margin -33.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Operating Margin -42.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -73.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Net Profit Margin -73.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

DAC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DAC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $498 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Danaos. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Danaos. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DAC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12%, whose default value for DAC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Danaos, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Danaos.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DAC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DAC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Danaos.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Danaos. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DAC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DAC are equal to 637.9%.

Life of production assets of 24.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Danaos operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DAC is equal to 0.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $488 million for Danaos - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 105.409 million for Danaos is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Danaos at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Danaos posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 10:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for July 13th   [Jul-13-17 11:46AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 12th   [Jul-12-17 09:45AM  Zacks]
▶ Will Danaos (DAC) Continue to Surge Higher?   [Jun-30-17 06:07AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 28th   [Jun-28-17 10:44AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 22nd   [Jun-22-17 10:00AM  Zacks]
▶ Danaos posts 1Q profit   [May-30-17 04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Danaos reports 4Q loss   [Feb-21-17 06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Makes Danaos (DAC) a Strong Sell?   [Dec-22-16 11:07AM  Zacks]
▶ DryShips Shares Float Higher Again With New Loan   [Dec-16-16 11:30AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Why Shipping Stocks Skyrocketed Higher Today   [Nov-15-16 04:02PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Will Seaspan Corporation Raise Its Dividend in 2017?   [Aug-30-16 01:45PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Things Seaspan Corporation's CEO Wants You to Know   [Aug-15-16 04:15PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of DAC Financial statements of DAC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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