Intrinsic value of Daktronics - DAKT

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$9.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DAKT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.47
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  570
  581
  595
  610
  627
  646
  667
  690
  714
  741
  769
  800
  832
  867
  904
  942
  984
  1,028
  1,074
  1,123
  1,174
  1,229
  1,286
  1,346
  1,410
  1,477
  1,548
  1,622
  1,701
  1,783
  1,870
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  215
  220
  226
  232
  239
  247
  255
  264
  274
  284
  295
  307
  319
  333
  347
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  520
  545
  571
  598
  627
  657
  689
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  375
  385
  394
  404
  414
  424
  435
  446
  457
  469
  480
  492
  505
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  600
  615
  630
  646
  662
  679
  696
  713
  731
  749
  768
Total operating expenses, $m
  568
  590
  605
  620
  636
  653
  671
  690
  710
  731
  753
  775
  799
  824
  850
  877
  906
  936
  967
  999
  1,033
  1,068
  1,104
  1,142
  1,182
  1,224
  1,267
  1,311
  1,358
  1,406
  1,457
Operating income, $m
  3
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -4
  0
  4
  10
  16
  25
  33
  43
  53
  65
  78
  92
  107
  124
  142
  161
  182
  204
  228
  254
  282
  312
  343
  377
  413
EBITDA, $m
  20
  0
  -1
  -1
  1
  3
  6
  10
  15
  21
  28
  36
  45
  55
  66
  78
  91
  106
  122
  139
  158
  178
  200
  223
  248
  275
  303
  334
  366
  401
  438
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -5
  -1
  3
  8
  15
  23
  31
  40
  50
  62
  74
  88
  103
  119
  136
  155
  176
  198
  221
  247
  274
  303
  333
  366
  402
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
Net income, $m
  2
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -5
  -1
  2
  6
  11
  17
  23
  29
  37
  45
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  113
  128
  144
  162
  180
  200
  221
  243
  268
  293

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  350
  303
  310
  318
  327
  337
  348
  359
  372
  386
  401
  417
  434
  452
  471
  491
  513
  535
  560
  585
  612
  640
  670
  702
  735
  770
  807
  845
  886
  929
  974
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  297
  303
  310
  318
  327
  337
  348
  359
  372
  386
  401
  417
  434
  452
  471
  491
  513
  535
  560
  585
  612
  640
  670
  702
  735
  770
  807
  845
  886
  929
  974
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.919
  1.917
  1.919
  1.918
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.922
  1.919
  1.920
  1.918
  1.918
  1.917
  1.918
  1.919
  1.919
  1.918
  1.921
  1.918
  1.920
  1.918
  1.920
  1.919
  1.917
  1.918
  1.918
  1.918
  1.920
  1.920
  1.919
  1.920
Average production assets, $m
  78
  80
  81
  84
  86
  89
  91
  95
  98
  102
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Working capital, $m
  123
  73
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
Total debt, $m
  5
  7
  10
  14
  19
  24
  29
  35
  41
  48
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  101
  111
  123
  135
  147
  161
  175
  190
  205
  222
  239
  258
  277
  297
  319
  341
Total liabilities, $m
  149
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  245
  255
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
Total equity, $m
  201
  152
  156
  160
  164
  169
  175
  180
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  227
  236
  247
  257
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  445
  466
  489
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  350
  303
  310
  318
  327
  337
  348
  359
  372
  386
  401
  417
  434
  452
  470
  492
  512
  536
  560
  585
  612
  640
  670
  701
  735
  769
  807
  845
  886
  929
  974
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.025
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.140
  0.170
  0.190
  0.220
  0.250
  0.280
  0.300
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.410
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.498
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -5
  -1
  2
  6
  11
  17
  23
  29
  37
  45
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  113
  128
  144
  162
  180
  200
  221
  243
  268
  293
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  0
  -1
  -1
  0
  2
  5
  9
  13
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  49
  58
  68
  78
  90
  102
  116
  130
  146
  163
  181
  200
  221
  243
  267
  292
  319
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -2
  0
  2
  6
  10
  14
  19
  24
  30
  37
  45
  53
  63
  73
  84
  96
  109
  123
  139
  155
  173
  192
  212
  234
  257
  282
  308
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -6
  -3
  0
  5
  9
  15
  21
  28
  35
  44
  53
  64
  75
  87
  100
  114
  129
  146
  163
  182
  202
  224
  247
  272
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  12
  14
  14
  14
  12
  10
  7
  4
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  15
  17
  18
  18
  17
  15
  13
  10
  8
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -11
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  12
  17
  23
  30
  37
  46
  55
  65
  76
  87
  100
  114
  129
  145
  162
  181
  200
  222
  244
  268
  294
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  11
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  44
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -4
  0
  1
  1
  4
  9
  15
  21
  28
  35
  44
  53
  63
  75
  87
  100
  114
  129
  146
  163
  182
  202
  224
  247
  272
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  42
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  0
  1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.2
  92.1
  88.2
  84.6
  81.5
  79.1
  77.6
  76.7
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5
  76.5

Daktronics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells a range of electronic display systems and related products worldwide. It operates through five segments: Commercial, Live Events, High School Park and Recreation, Transportation, and International. The company offers video display systems, such as displays to show various levels of video, graphics, and animation, as well as controllers; LED ribbon board displays; mobile and modular display systems; freeform LED displays, which include architectural lighting and display products; indoor and outdoor scoreboards for various sports, digit displays, scoring and timing controllers, statistics software, and other related products; and timing systems for sports events primarily aquatics and track competitions, as well as swimming touchpads, race start systems, and relay take-off platforms. It also provides message displays; ITS dynamic message signs, including LED displays for road management, mass transit, and aviation applications; digit and directional displays for use in parking facilities; and audio systems for outdoor sports venues. In addition, the company offers static and digital billboards used to display static images, which change at regular intervals for the out-of-home (OOH) advertising industry; Visiconn system, a software application for controlling content and playback loops for digital billboard applications; and street furniture comprising advertising light boxes for static, scrolling, and digital OOH campaigns. Further, it provides digit and price displays, such as outdoor time and temperature displays, as well as Fuelight digit displays for the petroleum industry; and dynamic messaging systems for retailers, convenience stores, and other businesses, as well as maintenance and professional services related to its products. The company sells its products through direct sales and resellers. Daktronics, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Brookings, South Dakota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Daktronics (DAKT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 212.2
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -106.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 53
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 2%
Total Debt to Equity 2.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
EBITDA Margin 3.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin 0.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Net Profit Margin 0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio 900%

DAKT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DAKT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $570 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Daktronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Daktronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DAKT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DAKT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Daktronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Daktronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DAKT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $366 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DAKT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Daktronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Daktronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DAKT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DAKT are equal to 13.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Daktronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DAKT is equal to 12.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $201 million for Daktronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.27 million for Daktronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Daktronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Daktronics, Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 01:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Daktronics, Inc. : June 30, 2017   [Jun-30-17 02:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Great Stocks Under $10   [Jun-19-17 12:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Daktronics, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Daktronics Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend per Share   [Jun-02-17 09:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics posts 4Q profit   [07:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Small-Cap Stocks for the Long Term   [May-24-17 09:23AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Daktronics Releases Latest Digital Billboard Technology   [Mar-13-17 10:22AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics reports 3Q loss   [09:11AM  AP]
▶ Heres What Smart Money Thinks of Ryerson Holding Corp (RYI)   [Dec-08-16 01:23PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Daktronics, Inc. (DAKT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 10:32PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Daktronics Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend per Share   [Dec-02-16 10:43AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics Awarded State of Nevada ITS Project   [Dec-01-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics posts 2Q profit   [07:40AM  AP]
▶ Daktronics Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend per Share   [Sep-02-16 02:29PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of DAKT Financial statements of DAKT Annual reports of DAKT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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