Intrinsic value of Daktronics - DAKT

Previous Close

$10.27

  Intrinsic Value

$70.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+582%

  Value-price divergence*

+101%

Previous close

$10.27

 
Intrinsic value

$70.05

 
Up/down potential

+582%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+101%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DAKT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.98
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  587
  647
  709
  775
  843
  914
  988
  1,064
  1,144
  1,227
  1,313
  1,402
  1,495
  1,592
  1,693
  1,797
  1,907
  2,020
  2,139
  2,262
  2,391
  2,526
  2,667
  2,814
  2,967
  3,128
  3,296
  3,472
  3,656
  3,849
  4,051
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  129
  141
  154
  167
  181
  196
  211
  227
  243
  260
  277
  296
  315
  335
  355
  377
  399
  423
  447
  473
  499
  527
  556
  586
  618
  651
  686
  723
  761
  801
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  477
  489
  501
  513
  526
  539
  553
  567
  581
  595
  610
  625
  641
  657
  673
  690
  708
  725
  743
  762
  781
  801
  821
  841
  862
  884
  906
  928
  952
  975
Total operating expenses, $m
  571
  606
  630
  655
  680
  707
  735
  764
  794
  824
  855
  887
  921
  956
  992
  1,028
  1,067
  1,107
  1,148
  1,190
  1,235
  1,280
  1,328
  1,377
  1,427
  1,480
  1,535
  1,592
  1,651
  1,713
  1,776
Operating income, $m
  15
  42
  80
  120
  162
  206
  252
  300
  351
  403
  457
  515
  574
  636
  701
  769
  839
  913
  991
  1,072
  1,157
  1,246
  1,339
  1,437
  1,540
  1,648
  1,761
  1,880
  2,005
  2,137
  2,275
EBITDA, $m
  34
  59
  99
  141
  185
  231
  279
  329
  381
  436
  492
  551
  613
  678
  745
  815
  889
  966
  1,046
  1,131
  1,219
  1,312
  1,409
  1,510
  1,617
  1,729
  1,847
  1,970
  2,100
  2,237
  2,380
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  41
  79
  119
  160
  204
  249
  297
  346
  398
  451
  508
  567
  628
  692
  758
  828
  901
  977
  1,057
  1,141
  1,229
  1,321
  1,418
  1,519
  1,626
  1,737
  1,855
  1,978
  2,108
  2,244
Tax expense, $m
  6
  11
  21
  32
  43
  55
  67
  80
  93
  107
  122
  137
  153
  170
  187
  205
  224
  243
  264
  285
  308
  332
  357
  383
  410
  439
  469
  501
  534
  569
  606
Net income, $m
  10
  30
  58
  87
  117
  149
  182
  217
  253
  290
  329
  371
  414
  458
  505
  554
  604
  658
  713
  772
  833
  897
  964
  1,035
  1,109
  1,187
  1,268
  1,354
  1,444
  1,539
  1,638

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  355
  320
  351
  383
  416
  452
  488
  526
  565
  606
  649
  693
  739
  787
  836
  888
  942
  998
  1,057
  1,118
  1,182
  1,248
  1,318
  1,390
  1,466
  1,546
  1,629
  1,715
  1,806
  1,902
  2,001
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  290
  320
  351
  383
  416
  452
  488
  526
  565
  606
  649
  693
  739
  787
  836
  888
  942
  998
  1,057
  1,118
  1,182
  1,248
  1,318
  1,390
  1,466
  1,546
  1,629
  1,715
  1,806
  1,902
  2,001
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.024
  2.022
  2.020
  2.023
  2.026
  2.022
  2.025
  2.023
  2.025
  2.025
  2.023
  2.023
  2.023
  2.023
  2.025
  2.024
  2.024
  2.024
  2.024
  2.023
  2.023
  2.024
  2.024
  2.024
  2.024
  2.023
  2.023
  2.024
  2.024
  2.024
  2.024
Average production assets, $m
  77
  84
  92
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  149
  159
  171
  182
  194
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  347
  366
  386
  407
  429
  451
  475
  500
  527
Working capital, $m
  127
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  318
  335
  353
  372
  391
  412
  433
Total debt, $m
  4
  19
  36
  53
  71
  90
  110
  130
  151
  173
  196
  220
  244
  270
  297
  325
  354
  384
  416
  448
  483
  518
  556
  595
  636
  678
  723
  770
  819
  870
  924
Total liabilities, $m
  157
  172
  189
  206
  224
  243
  263
  283
  304
  326
  349
  373
  397
  423
  450
  478
  507
  537
  569
  601
  636
  671
  709
  748
  789
  831
  876
  923
  972
  1,023
  1,077
Total equity, $m
  198
  148
  162
  177
  192
  209
  225
  243
  261
  280
  300
  320
  341
  363
  386
  410
  435
  461
  488
  516
  546
  577
  609
  642
  677
  714
  752
  793
  835
  879
  925
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  355
  320
  351
  383
  416
  452
  488
  526
  565
  606
  649
  693
  738
  786
  836
  888
  942
  998
  1,057
  1,117
  1,182
  1,248
  1,318
  1,390
  1,466
  1,545
  1,628
  1,716
  1,807
  1,902
  2,002
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.130
  0.220
  0.300
  0.370
  0.430
  0.490
  0.530
  0.580
  0.620
  0.650
  0.690
  0.720
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.459
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  30
  58
  87
  117
  149
  182
  217
  253
  290
  329
  371
  414
  458
  505
  554
  604
  658
  713
  772
  833
  897
  964
  1,035
  1,109
  1,187
  1,268
  1,354
  1,444
  1,539
  1,638
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  48
  77
  108
  140
  173
  208
  245
  283
  323
  364
  407
  453
  500
  549
  600
  654
  710
  769
  831
  895
  963
  1,034
  1,108
  1,186
  1,268
  1,354
  1,444
  1,539
  1,639
  1,744
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  39
  42
  70
  101
  133
  166
  201
  237
  275
  314
  355
  398
  443
  489
  538
  589
  642
  698
  756
  817
  881
  948
  1,019
  1,092
  1,170
  1,251
  1,336
  1,425
  1,520
  1,618
  1,722
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
Free cash flow, $m
  21
  19
  45
  74
  104
  135
  167
  201
  237
  274
  312
  352
  394
  438
  484
  531
  581
  634
  688
  746
  806
  869
  935
  1,004
  1,077
  1,153
  1,233
  1,317
  1,405
  1,498
  1,596
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  35
  62
  91
  122
  154
  187
  222
  258
  296
  335
  376
  419
  464
  510
  559
  610
  664
  720
  779
  840
  905
  972
  1,043
  1,117
  1,195
  1,277
  1,364
  1,454
  1,549
  1,649
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  85
  48
  76
  106
  137
  170
  204
  240
  277
  315
  355
  398
  442
  487
  535
  586
  638
  693
  750
  811
  874
  940
  1,009
  1,082
  1,159
  1,239
  1,324
  1,412
  1,505
  1,603
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  81
  44
  66
  87
  106
  123
  138
  150
  159
  165
  169
  170
  168
  164
  157
  149
  139
  128
  116
  103
  90
  78
  66
  55
  45
  36
  28
  22
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Daktronics, Inc. is a supplier of electronic scoreboards, electronic display systems, digital messaging solutions, software and services for sporting, commercial and transportation applications. The Company operates through five segments: Commercial, Live Events, High School Park and Recreation, Transportation, and International. The Company offers a range of products, from small scoreboards and electronic displays to video display systems, as well as related control, timing and sound systems. It designs, markets, manufactures, installs and services integrated systems displaying real-time data, graphics, animation and video. Its product families include video displays, scoreboards and timing systems, message displays, intelligent transportation systems (ITS) dynamic message signs, space availability displays, audio systems, advertising displays, digit and price displays and digital messaging systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Daktronics (DAKT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -47.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 65
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 1.5%
Total Debt to Equity 2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 4.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Equity 5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
EBITDA Margin 6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Operating Margin 2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Net Profit Margin 1.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Payout Ratio 140%

DAKT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DAKT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $587 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Daktronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Daktronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DAKT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DAKT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Daktronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Daktronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DAKT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $465 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DAKT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Daktronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Daktronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DAKT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DAKT are equal to 13%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Daktronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DAKT is equal to 10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $198 million for Daktronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.638 million for Daktronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Daktronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
LYTS LSI Industries 6.57 1.74  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Tech Stocks Under $10 to Buy Now   [Sep-05-17 03:35PM  Zacks]
▶ Daktronics Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend per Share   [Sep-01-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics posts 1Q profit   [Aug-22-17 10:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Daktronics, Inc. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 03:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Daktronics, Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 01:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Daktronics, Inc. : June 30, 2017   [Jun-30-17 02:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Great Stocks Under $10   [Jun-19-17 12:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Daktronics, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Daktronics Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend per Share   [Jun-02-17 09:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics posts 4Q profit   [07:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Small-Cap Stocks for the Long Term   [May-24-17 09:23AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Daktronics Releases Latest Digital Billboard Technology   [Mar-13-17 10:22AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics reports 3Q loss   [09:11AM  AP]
▶ Heres What Smart Money Thinks of Ryerson Holding Corp (RYI)   [Dec-08-16 01:23PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Daktronics, Inc. (DAKT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 10:32PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Daktronics Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend per Share   [Dec-02-16 10:43AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics Awarded State of Nevada ITS Project   [Dec-01-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Daktronics posts 2Q profit   [07:40AM  AP]
Financial statements of DAKT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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