Intrinsic value of Darling Ingredients - DAR

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$16.14

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$16.14

 
Intrinsic value

$1.22

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DAR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.03
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
Revenue, $m
  3,398
  3,833
  4,294
  4,780
  5,290
  5,826
  6,385
  6,969
  7,578
  8,211
  8,870
  9,554
  10,266
  11,005
  11,774
  12,573
  13,403
  14,267
  15,166
  16,102
  17,077
  18,092
  19,151
  20,256
  21,409
  22,613
  23,870
  25,184
  26,557
  27,993
  29,496
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,656
  4,081
  4,529
  5,000
  5,493
  6,009
  6,548
  7,109
  7,692
  8,300
  8,808
  9,464
  10,146
  10,855
  11,591
  12,357
  13,153
  13,982
  14,845
  15,743
  16,680
  17,656
  18,674
  19,737
  20,847
  22,006
  23,217
  24,483
  25,808
  27,193
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,246
  3,656
  4,081
  4,529
  5,000
  5,493
  6,009
  6,548
  7,109
  7,692
  8,300
  8,808
  9,464
  10,146
  10,855
  11,591
  12,357
  13,153
  13,982
  14,845
  15,743
  16,680
  17,656
  18,674
  19,737
  20,847
  22,006
  23,217
  24,483
  25,808
  27,193
Operating income, $m
  152
  177
  213
  251
  290
  332
  376
  422
  469
  519
  570
  746
  802
  859
  919
  982
  1,047
  1,114
  1,184
  1,257
  1,333
  1,413
  1,495
  1,582
  1,672
  1,766
  1,864
  1,966
  2,074
  2,186
  2,303
EBITDA, $m
  442
  512
  573
  638
  706
  778
  852
  930
  1,012
  1,096
  1,184
  1,275
  1,370
  1,469
  1,572
  1,678
  1,789
  1,905
  2,025
  2,150
  2,280
  2,415
  2,557
  2,704
  2,858
  3,019
  3,187
  3,362
  3,545
  3,737
  3,938
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  78
  94
  110
  127
  146
  165
  185
  206
  228
  250
  274
  299
  324
  350
  378
  407
  436
  467
  500
  533
  568
  604
  642
  682
  723
  766
  811
  858
  908
  959
Earnings before tax, $m
  123
  99
  119
  141
  163
  187
  211
  237
  263
  291
  320
  472
  503
  535
  569
  604
  640
  678
  717
  758
  800
  845
  891
  939
  990
  1,042
  1,097
  1,155
  1,215
  1,278
  1,344
Tax expense, $m
  16
  27
  32
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  86
  127
  136
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  312
  328
  345
  363
Net income, $m
  102
  72
  87
  103
  119
  136
  154
  173
  192
  212
  233
  345
  367
  391
  415
  441
  467
  495
  523
  553
  584
  617
  650
  686
  722
  761
  801
  843
  887
  933
  981

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,698
  5,173
  5,794
  6,450
  7,140
  7,862
  8,617
  9,405
  10,226
  11,081
  11,970
  12,894
  13,854
  14,852
  15,889
  16,967
  18,088
  19,254
  20,467
  21,730
  23,045
  24,416
  25,845
  27,336
  28,892
  30,516
  32,213
  33,986
  35,839
  37,778
  39,805
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,583
  5,173
  5,794
  6,450
  7,140
  7,862
  8,617
  9,405
  10,226
  11,081
  11,970
  12,894
  13,854
  14,852
  15,889
  16,967
  18,088
  19,254
  20,467
  21,730
  23,045
  24,416
  25,845
  27,336
  28,892
  30,516
  32,213
  33,986
  35,839
  37,778
  39,805
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
Average production assets, $m
  2,259
  2,549
  2,855
  3,178
  3,518
  3,874
  4,246
  4,635
  5,039
  5,460
  5,898
  6,354
  6,827
  7,319
  7,830
  8,361
  8,913
  9,488
  10,085
  10,708
  11,356
  12,031
  12,736
  13,470
  14,237
  15,037
  15,873
  16,747
  17,660
  18,615
  19,615
Working capital, $m
  441
  395
  442
  492
  545
  600
  658
  718
  780
  846
  914
  984
  1,057
  1,134
  1,213
  1,295
  1,381
  1,470
  1,562
  1,658
  1,759
  1,864
  1,973
  2,086
  2,205
  2,329
  2,459
  2,594
  2,735
  2,883
  3,038
Total debt, $m
  1,751
  2,078
  2,445
  2,832
  3,238
  3,664
  4,110
  4,575
  5,059
  5,564
  6,088
  6,633
  7,200
  7,789
  8,401
  9,037
  9,698
  10,386
  11,101
  11,847
  12,623
  13,432
  14,275
  15,154
  16,072
  17,031
  18,032
  19,078
  20,171
  21,315
  22,511
Total liabilities, $m
  2,725
  3,052
  3,419
  3,806
  4,212
  4,638
  5,084
  5,549
  6,033
  6,538
  7,062
  7,607
  8,174
  8,763
  9,375
  10,011
  10,672
  11,360
  12,075
  12,821
  13,597
  14,406
  15,249
  16,128
  17,046
  18,005
  19,006
  20,052
  21,145
  22,289
  23,485
Total equity, $m
  1,973
  2,121
  2,376
  2,645
  2,927
  3,223
  3,533
  3,856
  4,193
  4,543
  4,908
  5,286
  5,680
  6,089
  6,515
  6,957
  7,416
  7,894
  8,391
  8,909
  9,449
  10,011
  10,597
  11,208
  11,846
  12,512
  13,207
  13,934
  14,694
  15,489
  16,320
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,698
  5,173
  5,795
  6,451
  7,139
  7,861
  8,617
  9,405
  10,226
  11,081
  11,970
  12,893
  13,854
  14,852
  15,890
  16,968
  18,088
  19,254
  20,466
  21,730
  23,046
  24,417
  25,846
  27,336
  28,892
  30,517
  32,213
  33,986
  35,839
  37,778
  39,805
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.887
  0.980
  1.030
  1.070
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.220
  1.240
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.370
  1.380
  1.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.405
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  72
  87
  103
  119
  136
  154
  173
  192
  212
  233
  345
  367
  391
  415
  441
  467
  495
  523
  553
  584
  617
  650
  686
  722
  761
  801
  843
  887
  933
  981
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  290
  335
  361
  387
  416
  445
  476
  509
  543
  578
  614
  529
  569
  610
  652
  697
  743
  791
  840
  892
  946
  1,003
  1,061
  1,123
  1,186
  1,253
  1,323
  1,396
  1,472
  1,551
  1,635
Funds from operations, $m
  444
  407
  448
  490
  535
  582
  631
  682
  735
  790
  847
  874
  936
  1,001
  1,068
  1,137
  1,210
  1,285
  1,364
  1,445
  1,531
  1,619
  1,712
  1,808
  1,909
  2,014
  2,124
  2,239
  2,359
  2,484
  2,616
Change in working capital, $m
  53
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
Cash from operations, $m
  391
  331
  400
  440
  482
  526
  573
  621
  672
  725
  780
  804
  863
  924
  989
  1,055
  1,124
  1,196
  1,271
  1,349
  1,430
  1,515
  1,603
  1,694
  1,790
  1,890
  1,994
  2,103
  2,217
  2,336
  2,461
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -188
  -212
  -238
  -265
  -293
  -323
  -354
  -386
  -420
  -455
  -492
  -529
  -569
  -610
  -652
  -697
  -743
  -791
  -840
  -892
  -946
  -1,003
  -1,061
  -1,123
  -1,186
  -1,253
  -1,323
  -1,396
  -1,472
  -1,551
New CAPEX, $m
  -244
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -356
  -372
  -388
  -405
  -421
  -438
  -455
  -473
  -492
  -511
  -531
  -552
  -574
  -598
  -622
  -648
  -675
  -704
  -735
  -767
  -800
  -836
  -874
  -913
  -955
  -999
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -243
  -478
  -518
  -561
  -605
  -649
  -695
  -742
  -791
  -841
  -893
  -947
  -1,002
  -1,061
  -1,121
  -1,183
  -1,249
  -1,317
  -1,389
  -1,462
  -1,540
  -1,621
  -1,707
  -1,796
  -1,890
  -1,986
  -2,089
  -2,197
  -2,309
  -2,427
  -2,550
Free cash flow, $m
  148
  -147
  -119
  -121
  -122
  -123
  -122
  -121
  -119
  -116
  -113
  -143
  -140
  -136
  -132
  -129
  -125
  -121
  -117
  -114
  -110
  -107
  -104
  -102
  -99
  -97
  -95
  -93
  -92
  -91
  -90
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -172
  350
  367
  387
  407
  426
  446
  465
  484
  504
  524
  545
  567
  589
  612
  636
  661
  688
  716
  745
  776
  809
  843
  880
  918
  958
  1,001
  1,046
  1,094
  1,144
  1,196
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  7
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -184
  350
  374
  390
  407
  426
  446
  465
  484
  504
  524
  545
  567
  589
  612
  636
  661
  688
  716
  745
  776
  809
  843
  880
  918
  958
  1,001
  1,046
  1,094
  1,144
  1,196
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -42
  203
  248
  266
  284
  304
  323
  344
  366
  388
  411
  402
  427
  453
  480
  507
  537
  567
  598
  631
  666
  702
  739
  778
  819
  862
  906
  953
  1,002
  1,053
  1,107
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -240
  -255
  -269
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -323
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -379
  -394
  -409
  -425
  -442
  -460
  -478
  -497
  -518
  -539
  -562
  -586
  -611
  -638
  -666
  -696
  -727
  -760
  -795
  -831
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  55
  0
  0
  2
  7
  14
  21
  29
  37
  47
  23
  33
  43
  54
  65
  77
  89
  101
  114
  126
  140
  153
  167
  181
  196
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  51
  0
  0
  1
  5
  8
  11
  13
  15
  15
  6
  8
  8
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.8
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7

Darling Ingredients Inc. develops, produces, and sells natural ingredients from edible and inedible bio-nutrients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Feed Ingredients, Food Ingredients, and Fuel Ingredients. The company offers a range of ingredients and customized specialty solutions for customers in the pharmaceutical, food, pet food, feed, technical, fuel, bioenergy, and fertilizer industries. It collects and transforms various animal by-product streams into useable and specialty ingredients, such as gelatin, edible fats, feed-grade fats, animal proteins and meals, plasma, pet food ingredients, organic fertilizers, yellow grease, fuel feedstocks, green energy, natural casings, and hides. The company also recovers and converts used cooking oil and commercial bakery residuals into valuable feed and fuel ingredients. In addition, it provides grease trap services to food establishments; environmental services to food processors; and sells restaurant cooking oil delivery and collection equipment. The company was formerly known as Darling International Inc. and changed its name to Darling Ingredients Inc. in May 2014. Darling Ingredients Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Darling Ingredients (DAR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 87.6%
Total Debt to Equity 88.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 14.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 13%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

DAR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DAR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3398 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Darling Ingredients. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Darling Ingredients. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DAR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for DAR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Darling Ingredients, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Darling Ingredients.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DAR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DAR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Darling Ingredients.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Darling Ingredients. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DAR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DAR are equal to 66.5%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Darling Ingredients operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DAR is equal to 10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1973 million for Darling Ingredients - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 162.33 million for Darling Ingredients is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Darling Ingredients at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.


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Stock chart of DAR Financial statements of DAR Annual reports of DAR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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