Intrinsic value of Darling Ingredients - DAR

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$14.94

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$14.94

 
Intrinsic value

$6.27

 
Up/down potential

-58%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DAR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.03
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,398
  3,466
  3,546
  3,637
  3,739
  3,852
  3,977
  4,112
  4,259
  4,417
  4,586
  4,768
  4,961
  5,167
  5,386
  5,619
  5,865
  6,125
  6,401
  6,692
  7,000
  7,324
  7,666
  8,027
  8,407
  8,807
  9,229
  9,672
  10,139
  10,630
  11,146
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,318
  3,391
  3,475
  3,570
  3,674
  3,789
  3,914
  4,049
  4,195
  4,351
  4,395
  4,574
  4,764
  4,966
  5,180
  5,407
  5,647
  5,901
  6,170
  6,453
  6,752
  7,068
  7,400
  7,751
  8,120
  8,508
  8,917
  9,347
  9,800
  10,276
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,246
  3,318
  3,391
  3,475
  3,570
  3,674
  3,789
  3,914
  4,049
  4,195
  4,351
  4,395
  4,574
  4,764
  4,966
  5,180
  5,407
  5,647
  5,901
  6,170
  6,453
  6,752
  7,068
  7,400
  7,751
  8,120
  8,508
  8,917
  9,347
  9,800
  10,276
Operating income, $m
  152
  148
  154
  161
  169
  178
  188
  198
  210
  222
  236
  372
  387
  403
  421
  439
  458
  478
  500
  523
  547
  572
  599
  627
  656
  688
  721
  755
  792
  830
  870
EBITDA, $m
  442
  463
  473
  486
  499
  514
  531
  549
  569
  590
  612
  636
  662
  690
  719
  750
  783
  818
  855
  893
  934
  978
  1,023
  1,072
  1,122
  1,176
  1,232
  1,291
  1,354
  1,419
  1,488
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  78
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  257
  272
  287
  303
  319
  337
Earnings before tax, $m
  123
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  114
  121
  252
  260
  270
  279
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  365
  380
  396
  413
  430
  449
  468
  489
  511
  533
Tax expense, $m
  16
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
Net income, $m
  102
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  184
  190
  197
  204
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,698
  4,677
  4,785
  4,908
  5,046
  5,199
  5,367
  5,550
  5,747
  5,961
  6,189
  6,434
  6,695
  6,973
  7,269
  7,582
  7,915
  8,266
  8,638
  9,031
  9,446
  9,884
  10,346
  10,833
  11,345
  11,886
  12,454
  13,053
  13,683
  14,345
  15,042
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,583
  4,677
  4,785
  4,908
  5,046
  5,199
  5,367
  5,550
  5,747
  5,961
  6,189
  6,434
  6,695
  6,973
  7,269
  7,582
  7,915
  8,266
  8,638
  9,031
  9,446
  9,884
  10,346
  10,833
  11,345
  11,886
  12,454
  13,053
  13,683
  14,345
  15,042
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
Average production assets, $m
  2,259
  2,305
  2,358
  2,418
  2,487
  2,562
  2,645
  2,735
  2,832
  2,937
  3,050
  3,171
  3,299
  3,436
  3,582
  3,736
  3,900
  4,073
  4,257
  4,450
  4,655
  4,871
  5,098
  5,338
  5,591
  5,857
  6,137
  6,432
  6,742
  7,069
  7,412
Working capital, $m
  441
  357
  365
  375
  385
  397
  410
  424
  439
  455
  472
  491
  511
  532
  555
  579
  604
  631
  659
  689
  721
  754
  790
  827
  866
  907
  951
  996
  1,044
  1,095
  1,148
Total debt, $m
  1,751
  1,786
  1,849
  1,922
  2,003
  2,093
  2,192
  2,300
  2,417
  2,543
  2,678
  2,822
  2,976
  3,140
  3,315
  3,500
  3,696
  3,903
  4,123
  4,354
  4,599
  4,858
  5,130
  5,417
  5,720
  6,038
  6,374
  6,727
  7,099
  7,490
  7,901
Total liabilities, $m
  2,725
  2,760
  2,823
  2,896
  2,977
  3,067
  3,166
  3,274
  3,391
  3,517
  3,652
  3,796
  3,950
  4,114
  4,289
  4,474
  4,670
  4,877
  5,097
  5,328
  5,573
  5,832
  6,104
  6,391
  6,694
  7,012
  7,348
  7,701
  8,073
  8,464
  8,875
Total equity, $m
  1,973
  1,918
  1,962
  2,012
  2,069
  2,132
  2,200
  2,275
  2,356
  2,444
  2,538
  2,638
  2,745
  2,859
  2,980
  3,109
  3,245
  3,389
  3,542
  3,703
  3,873
  4,052
  4,242
  4,441
  4,652
  4,873
  5,106
  5,352
  5,610
  5,882
  6,167
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,698
  4,678
  4,785
  4,908
  5,046
  5,199
  5,366
  5,549
  5,747
  5,961
  6,190
  6,434
  6,695
  6,973
  7,269
  7,583
  7,915
  8,266
  8,639
  9,031
  9,446
  9,884
  10,346
  10,832
  11,346
  11,885
  12,454
  13,053
  13,683
  14,346
  15,042
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.887
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.405
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  184
  190
  197
  204
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  290
  315
  319
  324
  330
  336
  343
  350
  359
  367
  377
  264
  275
  286
  298
  311
  325
  339
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  536
  562
  589
  618
Funds from operations, $m
  444
  366
  373
  381
  390
  400
  411
  423
  436
  450
  465
  448
  465
  483
  502
  523
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  672
  702
  734
  767
  802
  839
  878
  919
  962
  1,007
Change in working capital, $m
  53
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
Cash from operations, $m
  391
  328
  365
  372
  380
  389
  399
  409
  421
  434
  448
  429
  445
  462
  480
  499
  519
  540
  563
  587
  612
  639
  667
  697
  728
  761
  796
  832
  871
  911
  954
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -188
  -192
  -196
  -202
  -207
  -213
  -220
  -228
  -236
  -245
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -388
  -406
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -488
  -511
  -536
  -562
  -589
New CAPEX, $m
  -244
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -204
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -295
  -310
  -327
  -343
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -243
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -549
  -575
  -604
  -634
  -665
  -698
  -732
  -768
  -806
  -846
  -889
  -932
Free cash flow, $m
  148
  94
  120
  115
  110
  106
  102
  99
  96
  93
  90
  55
  52
  50
  48
  46
  44
  42
  40
  38
  37
  35
  34
  32
  30
  29
  27
  26
  24
  23
  21
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -172
  58
  63
  73
  81
  90
  99
  108
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  219
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  303
  319
  336
  353
  372
  391
  411
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -184
  58
  63
  73
  81
  90
  99
  108
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  219
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  303
  319
  336
  353
  372
  391
  411
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -42
  152
  183
  187
  192
  196
  201
  207
  213
  219
  225
  199
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  270
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  432
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -37
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -189
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -286
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  207
  139
  137
  135
  134
  133
  132
  131
  131
  131
  99
  99
  100
  101
  102
  104
  105
  107
  109
  112
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  192
  120
  108
  97
  86
  77
  67
  59
  51
  44
  28
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Darling Ingredients Inc. develops, produces, and sells natural ingredients from edible and inedible bio-nutrients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Feed Ingredients, Food Ingredients, and Fuel Ingredients. The company offers a range of ingredients and customized specialty solutions for customers in the pharmaceutical, food, pet food, feed, technical, fuel, bioenergy, and fertilizer industries. It collects and transforms various animal by-product streams into useable and specialty ingredients, such as gelatin, edible fats, feed-grade fats, animal proteins and meals, plasma, pet food ingredients, organic fertilizers, yellow grease, fuel feedstocks, green energy, natural casings, and hides. The company also recovers and converts used cooking oil and commercial bakery residuals into valuable feed and fuel ingredients. In addition, it provides grease trap services to food establishments; environmental services to food processors; and sells restaurant cooking oil delivery and collection equipment. The company was formerly known as Darling International Inc. and changed its name to Darling Ingredients Inc. in May 2014. Darling Ingredients Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Darling Ingredients (DAR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 87.6%
Total Debt to Equity 88.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 14.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 13%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

DAR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DAR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3398 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Darling Ingredients. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Darling Ingredients. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DAR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for DAR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Darling Ingredients, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Darling Ingredients.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DAR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DAR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Darling Ingredients.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Darling Ingredients. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DAR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DAR are equal to 66.5%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Darling Ingredients operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DAR is equal to 10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1973 million for Darling Ingredients - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 165.978 million for Darling Ingredients is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Darling Ingredients at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.


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