Intrinsic value of Donaldson - DCI

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$45.32

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.37
  2.80
  3.02
  3.22
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  2,220
  2,282
  2,351
  2,427
  2,509
  2,598
  2,695
  2,798
  2,908
  3,026
  3,152
  3,285
  3,427
  3,577
  3,735
  3,903
  4,081
  4,268
  4,466
  4,675
  4,894
  5,126
  5,370
  5,627
  5,897
  6,182
  6,481
  6,796
  7,127
  7,475
  7,841
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,003
  2,063
  2,129
  2,200
  2,277
  2,361
  2,450
  2,546
  2,649
  2,758
  2,850
  2,973
  3,103
  3,241
  3,387
  3,541
  3,704
  3,875
  4,056
  4,247
  4,448
  4,660
  4,882
  5,117
  5,364
  5,624
  5,897
  6,184
  6,486
  6,804
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,946
  2,003
  2,063
  2,129
  2,200
  2,277
  2,361
  2,450
  2,546
  2,649
  2,758
  2,850
  2,973
  3,103
  3,241
  3,387
  3,541
  3,704
  3,875
  4,056
  4,247
  4,448
  4,660
  4,882
  5,117
  5,364
  5,624
  5,897
  6,184
  6,486
  6,804
Operating income, $m
  274
  279
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  347
  362
  377
  394
  435
  453
  473
  494
  516
  540
  565
  591
  619
  648
  678
  711
  745
  780
  818
  858
  899
  943
  989
  1,038
EBITDA, $m
  349
  355
  366
  378
  391
  405
  419
  436
  453
  471
  491
  511
  533
  557
  582
  608
  635
  665
  695
  728
  762
  798
  836
  876
  918
  962
  1,009
  1,058
  1,110
  1,164
  1,221
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  257
  267
  275
  284
  294
  305
  317
  329
  342
  357
  372
  411
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  529
  553
  578
  604
  632
  662
  692
  725
  759
  795
  833
  873
  915
  959
Tax expense, $m
  66
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
Net income, $m
  191
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  300
  312
  325
  339
  354
  370
  386
  404
  422
  441
  461
  483
  505
  529
  554
  580
  608
  637
  668
  700

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,787
  1,587
  1,635
  1,688
  1,745
  1,807
  1,874
  1,946
  2,022
  2,104
  2,192
  2,284
  2,383
  2,487
  2,598
  2,714
  2,838
  2,968
  3,106
  3,251
  3,404
  3,565
  3,734
  3,913
  4,101
  4,299
  4,507
  4,726
  4,956
  5,198
  5,453
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,544
  1,587
  1,635
  1,688
  1,745
  1,807
  1,874
  1,946
  2,022
  2,104
  2,192
  2,284
  2,383
  2,487
  2,598
  2,714
  2,838
  2,968
  3,106
  3,251
  3,404
  3,565
  3,734
  3,913
  4,101
  4,299
  4,507
  4,726
  4,956
  5,198
  5,453
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
Average production assets, $m
  509
  523
  538
  556
  575
  595
  617
  641
  666
  693
  722
  752
  785
  819
  855
  894
  935
  977
  1,023
  1,070
  1,121
  1,174
  1,230
  1,289
  1,350
  1,416
  1,484
  1,556
  1,632
  1,712
  1,796
Working capital, $m
  466
  452
  466
  480
  497
  514
  534
  554
  576
  599
  624
  650
  678
  708
  740
  773
  808
  845
  884
  926
  969
  1,015
  1,063
  1,114
  1,168
  1,224
  1,283
  1,346
  1,411
  1,480
  1,553
Total debt, $m
  567
  372
  397
  425
  454
  487
  521
  559
  599
  641
  687
  735
  786
  840
  898
  959
  1,023
  1,090
  1,162
  1,237
  1,317
  1,401
  1,489
  1,582
  1,680
  1,782
  1,891
  2,005
  2,124
  2,250
  2,383
Total liabilities, $m
  1,020
  825
  850
  878
  907
  940
  974
  1,012
  1,052
  1,094
  1,140
  1,188
  1,239
  1,293
  1,351
  1,412
  1,476
  1,543
  1,615
  1,690
  1,770
  1,854
  1,942
  2,035
  2,133
  2,235
  2,344
  2,458
  2,577
  2,703
  2,836
Total equity, $m
  767
  762
  785
  810
  838
  867
  899
  934
  971
  1,010
  1,052
  1,097
  1,144
  1,194
  1,247
  1,303
  1,362
  1,425
  1,491
  1,560
  1,634
  1,711
  1,793
  1,878
  1,969
  2,063
  2,163
  2,268
  2,379
  2,495
  2,617
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,787
  1,587
  1,635
  1,688
  1,745
  1,807
  1,873
  1,946
  2,023
  2,104
  2,192
  2,285
  2,383
  2,487
  2,598
  2,715
  2,838
  2,968
  3,106
  3,250
  3,404
  3,565
  3,735
  3,913
  4,102
  4,298
  4,507
  4,726
  4,956
  5,198
  5,453
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.739
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  191
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  300
  312
  325
  339
  354
  370
  386
  404
  422
  441
  461
  483
  505
  529
  554
  580
  608
  637
  668
  700
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  183
Funds from operations, $m
  294
  271
  279
  287
  296
  306
  317
  328
  341
  354
  368
  377
  392
  409
  427
  445
  465
  486
  508
  531
  556
  581
  608
  637
  667
  699
  732
  767
  804
  842
  883
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  72
Cash from operations, $m
  286
  259
  265
  272
  280
  289
  298
  308
  319
  331
  343
  350
  364
  379
  395
  412
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  560
  586
  613
  642
  673
  705
  738
  774
  811
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
New CAPEX, $m
  -73
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -259
Free cash flow, $m
  230
  193
  196
  200
  204
  210
  215
  221
  228
  236
  244
  246
  255
  265
  275
  286
  298
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  402
  420
  439
  460
  481
  504
  527
  552
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -84
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  144
  215
  221
  227
  234
  242
  250
  259
  268
  278
  289
  294
  306
  319
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  452
  473
  495
  518
  542
  568
  595
  623
  653
  685
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  8
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  221
  198
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  231
  239
  247
  250
  259
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
  329
  343
  359
  374
  391
  409
  428
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  562
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  212
  181
  176
  170
  164
  158
  152
  145
  137
  130
  119
  111
  102
  94
  85
  77
  69
  61
  53
  46
  39
  32
  27
  22
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Donaldson Company, Inc. manufactures and sells filtration systems and replacement parts worldwide. It operates through two segments, Engine Products and Industrial Products. The Engine Products segment offers air filtration systems; exhaust and emissions systems; liquid filtration systems, including hydraulics, fuel, and lube systems; and replacement filters. This segment sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEM) in the construction, mining, agriculture, aerospace, defense, and truck markets; and to independent distributors, OEM dealer networks, private label accounts, and large equipment fleets. The Industrial Products segment provides dust, fume, and mist collectors; compressed air purification systems; air filtration systems for gas turbines; polytetrafluoroethylene membrane-based products; and specialized air and gas filtration systems for applications, including computer hard disk drives and semi-conductor manufacturing. This segment sells its products to various industrial dealers, distributors, OEMs of gas-fired turbines, and OEMs and end-users requiring filtration solutions and replacement filters. Donaldson Company, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Donaldson (DCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.5
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 7.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.6%
Total Debt to Equity 73.9%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Total Capital 14.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 24.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Effective Tax Rate 25.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Payout Ratio 47.6%

DCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2220 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Donaldson. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Donaldson. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Donaldson, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Donaldson.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Donaldson.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Donaldson. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DCI are equal to 22.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Donaldson operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DCI is equal to 19.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $767 million for Donaldson - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130.009 million for Donaldson is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Donaldson at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Donaldson Co., Inc. : June 12, 2017   [Jun-12-17 01:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for June 5th   [Jun-05-17 11:10AM  Zacks]
▶ Donaldson beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Jun-01-17 07:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Donaldson Company Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-24-17 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for April 17th   [Apr-17-17 10:51AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for April 11th   [Apr-11-17 10:30AM  Zacks]
▶ Donaldson tops Street 2Q forecasts   [07:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Donaldson Company Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jan-27-17 01:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ What Hedge Funds Think about Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI)?   [Dec-12-16 10:28AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Pay drops for Donaldson CEO   [Sep-27-16 12:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of DCI Financial statements of DCI Annual reports of DCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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