Intrinsic value of Donaldson - DCI

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$46.28

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$46.28

 
Intrinsic value

$22.29

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.37
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  2,220
  2,367
  2,519
  2,678
  2,843
  3,015
  3,194
  3,381
  3,576
  3,779
  3,991
  4,213
  4,445
  4,687
  4,941
  5,206
  5,483
  5,774
  6,078
  6,396
  6,730
  7,080
  7,446
  7,830
  8,233
  8,655
  9,097
  9,562
  10,049
  10,559
  11,095
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,076
  2,209
  2,346
  2,489
  2,639
  2,794
  2,956
  3,125
  3,302
  3,486
  3,656
  3,857
  4,067
  4,287
  4,517
  4,758
  5,010
  5,274
  5,550
  5,839
  6,143
  6,461
  6,794
  7,143
  7,510
  7,894
  8,296
  8,719
  9,162
  9,627
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,946
  2,076
  2,209
  2,346
  2,489
  2,639
  2,794
  2,956
  3,125
  3,302
  3,486
  3,656
  3,857
  4,067
  4,287
  4,517
  4,758
  5,010
  5,274
  5,550
  5,839
  6,143
  6,461
  6,794
  7,143
  7,510
  7,894
  8,296
  8,719
  9,162
  9,627
Operating income, $m
  274
  290
  310
  331
  353
  376
  400
  424
  450
  477
  505
  557
  588
  620
  654
  689
  726
  764
  804
  846
  890
  937
  985
  1,036
  1,089
  1,145
  1,204
  1,265
  1,330
  1,397
  1,468
EBITDA, $m
  349
  368
  392
  417
  443
  469
  497
  526
  557
  588
  621
  656
  692
  730
  769
  810
  854
  899
  946
  996
  1,048
  1,102
  1,159
  1,219
  1,282
  1,347
  1,416
  1,489
  1,564
  1,644
  1,727
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  118
Earnings before tax, $m
  257
  278
  296
  315
  335
  356
  377
  400
  423
  448
  473
  523
  551
  580
  610
  642
  675
  710
  747
  785
  825
  867
  911
  958
  1,006
  1,057
  1,110
  1,166
  1,224
  1,286
  1,350
Tax expense, $m
  66
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  141
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  285
  300
  315
  331
  347
  365
Net income, $m
  191
  203
  216
  230
  245
  260
  275
  292
  309
  327
  345
  382
  402
  423
  445
  469
  493
  519
  545
  573
  603
  633
  665
  699
  734
  771
  810
  851
  894
  939
  986

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,787
  1,646
  1,752
  1,862
  1,977
  2,096
  2,221
  2,351
  2,486
  2,628
  2,776
  2,930
  3,091
  3,260
  3,436
  3,620
  3,813
  4,015
  4,227
  4,448
  4,680
  4,923
  5,178
  5,445
  5,725
  6,019
  6,326
  6,649
  6,988
  7,343
  7,716
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,544
  1,646
  1,752
  1,862
  1,977
  2,096
  2,221
  2,351
  2,486
  2,628
  2,776
  2,930
  3,091
  3,260
  3,436
  3,620
  3,813
  4,015
  4,227
  4,448
  4,680
  4,923
  5,178
  5,445
  5,725
  6,019
  6,326
  6,649
  6,988
  7,343
  7,716
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
Average production assets, $m
  509
  542
  577
  613
  651
  690
  731
  774
  819
  865
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,073
  1,131
  1,192
  1,256
  1,322
  1,392
  1,465
  1,541
  1,621
  1,705
  1,793
  1,885
  1,982
  2,083
  2,190
  2,301
  2,418
  2,541
Working capital, $m
  466
  469
  499
  530
  563
  597
  632
  669
  708
  748
  790
  834
  880
  928
  978
  1,031
  1,086
  1,143
  1,203
  1,266
  1,333
  1,402
  1,474
  1,550
  1,630
  1,714
  1,801
  1,893
  1,990
  2,091
  2,197
Total debt, $m
  567
  403
  458
  515
  575
  637
  702
  769
  840
  914
  990
  1,071
  1,154
  1,242
  1,334
  1,430
  1,530
  1,635
  1,745
  1,860
  1,981
  2,107
  2,240
  2,378
  2,524
  2,677
  2,837
  3,005
  3,181
  3,365
  3,559
Total liabilities, $m
  1,020
  856
  911
  968
  1,028
  1,090
  1,155
  1,222
  1,293
  1,367
  1,443
  1,524
  1,607
  1,695
  1,787
  1,883
  1,983
  2,088
  2,198
  2,313
  2,434
  2,560
  2,693
  2,831
  2,977
  3,130
  3,290
  3,458
  3,634
  3,818
  4,012
Total equity, $m
  767
  790
  841
  894
  949
  1,006
  1,066
  1,128
  1,194
  1,261
  1,332
  1,406
  1,484
  1,565
  1,649
  1,738
  1,830
  1,927
  2,029
  2,135
  2,246
  2,363
  2,485
  2,614
  2,748
  2,889
  3,037
  3,192
  3,354
  3,525
  3,704
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,787
  1,646
  1,752
  1,862
  1,977
  2,096
  2,221
  2,350
  2,487
  2,628
  2,775
  2,930
  3,091
  3,260
  3,436
  3,621
  3,813
  4,015
  4,227
  4,448
  4,680
  4,923
  5,178
  5,445
  5,725
  6,019
  6,327
  6,650
  6,988
  7,343
  7,716
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.739
  0.510
  0.540
  0.580
  0.610
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  191
  203
  216
  230
  245
  260
  275
  292
  309
  327
  345
  382
  402
  423
  445
  469
  493
  519
  545
  573
  603
  633
  665
  699
  734
  771
  810
  851
  894
  939
  986
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  98
  104
  110
  115
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  223
  235
  247
  259
Funds from operations, $m
  294
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  415
  438
  462
  480
  506
  533
  561
  590
  621
  654
  687
  723
  760
  799
  839
  882
  927
  974
  1,023
  1,075
  1,129
  1,185
  1,245
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
Cash from operations, $m
  286
  253
  268
  284
  301
  319
  338
  357
  377
  398
  420
  436
  460
  485
  511
  538
  566
  596
  627
  660
  694
  729
  767
  806
  847
  890
  935
  983
  1,032
  1,084
  1,139
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -223
  -235
  -247
New CAPEX, $m
  -73
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -319
  -335
  -352
  -370
Free cash flow, $m
  230
  167
  178
  189
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  292
  308
  325
  343
  362
  381
  401
  423
  445
  468
  492
  517
  544
  572
  601
  632
  664
  697
  732
  769
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -84
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  144
  220
  233
  246
  261
  275
  291
  307
  324
  341
  359
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  481
  506
  533
  560
  589
  619
  650
  683
  717
  754
  792
  832
  873
  917
  963
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  8
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  197
  182
  194
  206
  218
  231
  245
  259
  273
  289
  298
  315
  332
  350
  369
  389
  409
  431
  454
  477
  502
  528
  555
  583
  613
  644
  677
  711
  747
  784
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  189
  167
  168
  169
  169
  168
  165
  162
  157
  151
  142
  134
  126
  118
  108
  99
  89
  79
  70
  61
  52
  44
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Donaldson Company, Inc. manufactures and sells filtration systems and replacement parts worldwide. It operates through two segments, Engine Products and Industrial Products. The Engine Products segment offers air filtration systems; exhaust and emissions systems; liquid filtration systems, including hydraulics, fuel, and lube systems; and replacement filters. This segment sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEM) in the construction, mining, agriculture, aerospace, defense, and truck markets; and to independent distributors, OEM dealer networks, private label accounts, and large equipment fleets. The Industrial Products segment provides dust, fume, and mist collectors; compressed air purification systems; air filtration systems for gas turbines; polytetrafluoroethylene membrane-based products; and specialized air and gas filtration systems for applications, including computer hard disk drives and semi-conductor manufacturing. This segment sells its products to various industrial dealers, distributors, OEMs of gas-fired turbines, and OEMs and end-users requiring filtration solutions and replacement filters. Donaldson Company, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Donaldson (DCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.2
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.6%
Total Debt to Equity 73.9%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Total Capital 14.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 24.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Effective Tax Rate 25.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Payout Ratio 47.6%

DCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2220 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Donaldson. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Donaldson. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Donaldson, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Donaldson.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Donaldson.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Donaldson. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DCI are equal to 22.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Donaldson operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DCI is equal to 19.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $767 million for Donaldson - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 132.25 million for Donaldson is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Donaldson at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.1 billion.


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▶ Pay drops for Donaldson CEO   [Sep-27-16 12:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
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Stock chart of DCI Financial statements of DCI
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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