Intrinsic value of Ducommun - DCO

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$29.71

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -17.27
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  551
  679
  695
  713
  733
  755
  779
  806
  835
  866
  899
  934
  972
  1,013
  1,056
  1,101
  1,149
  1,201
  1,255
  1,312
  1,372
  1,436
  1,503
  1,573
  1,648
  1,726
  1,809
  1,896
  1,987
  2,083
  2,185
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  631
  645
  662
  680
  700
  723
  747
  773
  802
  832
  856
  891
  928
  968
  1,009
  1,054
  1,100
  1,150
  1,202
  1,257
  1,316
  1,377
  1,442
  1,510
  1,582
  1,658
  1,737
  1,821
  1,910
  2,002
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  504
  631
  645
  662
  680
  700
  723
  747
  773
  802
  832
  856
  891
  928
  968
  1,009
  1,054
  1,100
  1,150
  1,202
  1,257
  1,316
  1,377
  1,442
  1,510
  1,582
  1,658
  1,737
  1,821
  1,910
  2,002
Operating income, $m
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  115
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
EBITDA, $m
  69
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  173
  182
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  105
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  40
  41
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
Tax expense, $m
  13
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
Net income, $m
  25
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  515
  563
  576
  591
  607
  626
  646
  668
  692
  717
  745
  774
  806
  839
  875
  912
  952
  995
  1,039
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
  1,245
  1,303
  1,365
  1,430
  1,499
  1,571
  1,646
  1,726
  1,810
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  508
  563
  576
  591
  607
  626
  646
  668
  692
  717
  745
  774
  806
  839
  875
  912
  952
  995
  1,039
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
  1,245
  1,303
  1,365
  1,430
  1,499
  1,571
  1,646
  1,726
  1,810
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.085
  1.206
  1.207
  1.206
  1.208
  1.206
  1.206
  1.207
  1.207
  1.208
  1.207
  1.207
  1.206
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.208
  1.207
  1.207
  1.208
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
  1.207
Average production assets, $m
  206
  236
  241
  247
  254
  262
  270
  280
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  690
  723
  758
Working capital, $m
  140
  177
  181
  186
  191
  197
  203
  210
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  276
  287
  300
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  451
  472
  495
  519
  544
  570
Total debt, $m
  167
  248
  257
  267
  278
  290
  304
  318
  334
  352
  370
  390
  411
  433
  457
  482
  509
  537
  567
  599
  633
  668
  705
  744
  786
  829
  875
  923
  974
  1,028
  1,084
Total liabilities, $m
  303
  377
  386
  396
  407
  419
  433
  447
  463
  481
  499
  519
  540
  562
  586
  611
  638
  666
  696
  728
  762
  797
  834
  873
  915
  958
  1,004
  1,052
  1,103
  1,157
  1,213
Total equity, $m
  212
  186
  190
  195
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  237
  246
  255
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  359
  375
  392
  411
  430
  451
  472
  495
  518
  543
  570
  597
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  515
  563
  576
  591
  607
  625
  646
  667
  691
  718
  745
  774
  806
  839
  875
  912
  952
  994
  1,039
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
  1,245
  1,303
  1,366
  1,430
  1,499
  1,570
  1,646
  1,727
  1,810
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.788
  1.340
  1.350
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.440
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.404
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
Funds from operations, $m
  57
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  43
  16
  41
  41
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  35
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -86
  -91
Free cash flow, $m
  78
  -6
  17
  16
  15
  15
  14
  13
  13
  12
  12
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -75
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -76
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  1
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
Discount rate, %
 
  9.20
  9.66
  10.14
  10.65
  11.18
  11.74
  12.33
  12.95
  13.59
  14.27
  14.99
  15.74
  16.52
  17.35
  18.22
  19.13
  20.08
  21.09
  22.14
  23.25
  24.41
  25.63
  26.91
  28.26
  29.67
  31.15
  32.71
  34.35
  36.07
  37.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2
  18
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
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Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing products and services primarily to the aerospace, defense, industrial, natural resources, medical, and other industries. The company operates in two segments, Electronic Systems (ES) and Structural Systems (SS). The ES segment offers cable assemblies and interconnect systems; printed circuit board assemblies; higher-level electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical assemblies; radar enclosures; aircraft avionics racks; shipboard communications and control enclosures; cable assemblies; wire harnesses; and interconnect systems. It also provides illuminated pushbutton switches and panels for aviation and test systems; microwave and millimeter switches and filters for radio frequency systems and test instrumentation; and motors and resolvers for motion control. This segment also provides engineering expertise for aerospace system design, development, integration, and test. It serves commercial and military fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft, and space programs, as well as non-aerospace applications for the industrial automation, natural resources, medical, and other end-use markets. The SS segment offers contoured aluminum, titanium, and Inconel aero structure components; structural assembly products, such as winglets, engine components, and fuselage structural panels; and metal and composite bonded structures and assemblies comprising aircraft wing spoilers, large fuselage skins, rotor blades on rotary-wing aircraft and components, flight control surfaces, and engine components. The company’s products are also used in industrial test systems, energy exploration systems, semiconductor fabrication units, glass electronic manufacturing systems, mine automation and control systems, patient monitoring devices, respiratory care devices, biodecontamination equipment, and other technology-driven products. Ducommun Incorporated was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Carson, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ducommun (DCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 78.8%
Total Debt to Equity 78.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Return On Equity 12.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 34.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

DCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $666 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ducommun. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ducommun. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.2%, whose default value for DCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ducommun, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ducommun.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.2% for Ducommun.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ducommun. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DCO are equal to 34.7%.

Life of production assets of 13 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ducommun operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DCO is equal to 26.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $187 million for Ducommun - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.95 million for Ducommun is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ducommun at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The Market In 5 Minutes   [May-05-17 09:02AM  Benzinga]
▶ Ducommun misses 1Q profit forecasts   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ The Best Aerospace Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Apr-24-17 11:03AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ducommun, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:DCO) : April 13, 2017   [Apr-13-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Should You Get Rid of Ducommun (DCO) Now?   [Apr-05-17 08:45AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 4th   [Apr-04-17 10:34AM  Zacks]
▶ Ducommun beats Street 4Q forecasts   [05:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ducommun Announces Fourth Quarter Conference Call   [Feb-16-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ducommun Wins Additional Work from Airbus for A320neo   [Jan-25-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-20-16 03:05PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ducommun Announces Third Quarter Conference Call   [Oct-17-16 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ducommun Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [Jul-28-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ducommun Announces Second Quarter Conference Call   [Jul-21-16 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of DCO Financial statements of DCO Annual reports of DCO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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