Intrinsic value of Dime Community Bancshares - DCOM

Previous Close

$20.05

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$20.05

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DCOM.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DCOM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  177
  182
  186
  191
  197
  204
  211
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  300
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
  393
  411
  430
  451
  473
  495
  519
  544
  571
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  69
  71
  73
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  82
  85
  87
  88
  91
  92
  95
  97
  100
  103
  104
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  143
  147
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
Operating income, $m
  0
  95
  97
  100
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  133
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  240
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  336
  355
  376
  397
EBITDA, $m
  2
  729
  745
  765
  787
  811
  838
  868
  900
  934
  971
  1,011
  1,054
  1,099
  1,148
  1,199
  1,254
  1,312
  1,373
  1,438
  1,507
  1,579
  1,655
  1,736
  1,821
  1,911
  2,005
  2,105
  2,209
  2,320
  2,436
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  324
  303
  308
  314
  320
  328
  335
  344
  353
  364
  374
  386
  398
  411
  425
  440
  456
  473
  490
  509
  528
  549
  571
  594
  618
  644
  671
  699
  729
  760
Earnings before tax, $m
  133
  -229
  -206
  -208
  -211
  -214
  -217
  -220
  -223
  -227
  -231
  -235
  -239
  -244
  -249
  -254
  -259
  -264
  -270
  -276
  -282
  -289
  -296
  -303
  -310
  -318
  -326
  -335
  -344
  -353
  -363
Tax expense, $m
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  73
  -229
  -206
  -208
  -211
  -214
  -217
  -220
  -223
  -227
  -231
  -235
  -239
  -244
  -249
  -254
  -259
  -264
  -270
  -276
  -282
  -289
  -296
  -303
  -310
  -318
  -326
  -335
  -344
  -353
  -363

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,005
  4,551
  4,655
  4,775
  4,909
  5,058
  5,222
  5,399
  5,592
  5,799
  6,022
  6,260
  6,514
  6,784
  7,072
  7,377
  7,700
  8,043
  8,404
  8,787
  9,191
  9,617
  10,066
  10,539
  11,038
  11,564
  12,117
  12,699
  13,312
  13,957
  14,635
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,005
  4,551
  4,655
  4,775
  4,909
  5,058
  5,222
  5,399
  5,592
  5,799
  6,022
  6,260
  6,514
  6,784
  7,072
  7,377
  7,700
  8,043
  8,404
  8,787
  9,191
  9,617
  10,066
  10,539
  11,038
  11,564
  12,117
  12,699
  13,312
  13,957
  14,635
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
Average production assets, $m
  17
  6,339
  6,484
  6,651
  6,838
  7,045
  7,273
  7,521
  7,789
  8,077
  8,387
  8,719
  9,073
  9,450
  9,850
  10,275
  10,725
  11,202
  11,706
  12,239
  12,801
  13,394
  14,020
  14,680
  15,375
  16,107
  16,877
  17,688
  18,542
  19,440
  20,384
Working capital, $m
  0
  -5,874
  -6,009
  -6,163
  -6,336
  -6,529
  -6,739
  -6,969
  -7,217
  -7,485
  -7,772
  -8,079
  -8,407
  -8,757
  -9,128
  -9,521
  -9,939
  -10,380
  -10,847
  -11,341
  -11,862
  -12,412
  -12,992
  -13,603
  -14,247
  -14,925
  -15,639
  -16,391
  -17,182
  -18,014
  -18,889
Total debt, $m
  71
  5,609
  5,703
  5,811
  5,932
  6,066
  6,213
  6,373
  6,546
  6,733
  6,933
  7,147
  7,376
  7,619
  7,878
  8,153
  8,444
  8,752
  9,077
  9,421
  9,785
  10,168
  10,572
  10,999
  11,448
  11,921
  12,419
  12,943
  13,494
  14,075
  14,685
Total liabilities, $m
  5,440
  4,096
  4,190
  4,298
  4,418
  4,552
  4,699
  4,859
  5,033
  5,219
  5,420
  5,634
  5,863
  6,106
  6,365
  6,639
  6,930
  7,238
  7,564
  7,908
  8,271
  8,655
  9,059
  9,485
  9,934
  10,407
  10,905
  11,429
  11,981
  12,561
  13,172
Total equity, $m
  566
  455
  466
  478
  491
  506
  522
  540
  559
  580
  602
  626
  651
  678
  707
  738
  770
  804
  840
  879
  919
  962
  1,007
  1,054
  1,104
  1,156
  1,212
  1,270
  1,331
  1,396
  1,464
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,006
  4,551
  4,656
  4,776
  4,909
  5,058
  5,221
  5,399
  5,592
  5,799
  6,022
  6,260
  6,514
  6,784
  7,072
  7,377
  7,700
  8,042
  8,404
  8,787
  9,190
  9,617
  10,066
  10,539
  11,038
  11,563
  12,117
  12,699
  13,312
  13,957
  14,636
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.125
  12.330
  12.250
  12.170
  12.080
  11.990
  11.900
  11.800
  11.710
  11.610
  11.510
  11.420
  11.320
  11.230
  11.140
  11.050
  10.970
  10.880
  10.800
  10.720
  10.650
  10.570
  10.500
  10.440
  10.370
  10.310
  10.250
  10.190
  10.140
  10.080
  10.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.094
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  73
  -229
  -206
  -208
  -211
  -214
  -217
  -220
  -223
  -227
  -231
  -235
  -239
  -244
  -249
  -254
  -259
  -264
  -270
  -276
  -282
  -289
  -296
  -303
  -310
  -318
  -326
  -335
  -344
  -353
  -363
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  634
  648
  665
  684
  705
  727
  752
  779
  808
  839
  872
  907
  945
  985
  1,028
  1,073
  1,120
  1,171
  1,224
  1,280
  1,339
  1,402
  1,468
  1,537
  1,611
  1,688
  1,769
  1,854
  1,944
  2,038
Funds from operations, $m
  32
  404
  442
  457
  473
  491
  511
  532
  556
  581
  608
  637
  668
  701
  736
  774
  814
  856
  901
  948
  998
  1,051
  1,106
  1,165
  1,227
  1,292
  1,361
  1,434
  1,510
  1,591
  1,676
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -115
  -135
  -154
  -173
  -192
  -211
  -230
  -248
  -268
  -287
  -307
  -328
  -349
  -371
  -394
  -417
  -442
  -467
  -494
  -521
  -550
  -580
  -611
  -644
  -678
  -714
  -752
  -791
  -832
  -875
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  520
  578
  611
  646
  683
  721
  762
  804
  848
  895
  944
  996
  1,050
  1,108
  1,168
  1,231
  1,298
  1,368
  1,441
  1,519
  1,600
  1,686
  1,776
  1,871
  1,971
  2,075
  2,186
  2,301
  2,423
  2,551
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -620
  -634
  -648
  -665
  -684
  -705
  -727
  -752
  -779
  -808
  -839
  -872
  -907
  -945
  -985
  -1,028
  -1,073
  -1,120
  -1,171
  -1,224
  -1,280
  -1,339
  -1,402
  -1,468
  -1,537
  -1,611
  -1,688
  -1,769
  -1,854
  -1,944
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -134
  -146
  -167
  -187
  -207
  -227
  -248
  -268
  -289
  -310
  -332
  -354
  -377
  -400
  -425
  -450
  -477
  -504
  -533
  -562
  -593
  -626
  -660
  -695
  -732
  -771
  -811
  -854
  -898
  -945
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -854
  -754
  -780
  -815
  -852
  -891
  -932
  -975
  -1,020
  -1,068
  -1,118
  -1,171
  -1,226
  -1,284
  -1,345
  -1,410
  -1,478
  -1,550
  -1,624
  -1,704
  -1,786
  -1,873
  -1,965
  -2,062
  -2,163
  -2,269
  -2,382
  -2,499
  -2,623
  -2,752
  -2,889
Free cash flow, $m
  -834
  -235
  -202
  -204
  -206
  -208
  -211
  -213
  -216
  -219
  -223
  -226
  -230
  -234
  -238
  -242
  -247
  -252
  -257
  -262
  -267
  -273
  -279
  -285
  -292
  -299
  -306
  -313
  -321
  -329
  -338
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -336
  -394
  94
  108
  121
  134
  147
  160
  173
  187
  200
  214
  229
  243
  259
  275
  291
  308
  326
  344
  363
  383
  404
  426
  449
  473
  498
  524
  552
  580
  610
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  688
  216
  220
  224
  229
  233
  238
  243
  248
  253
  259
  265
  271
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  314
  323
  331
  341
  350
  360
  371
  382
  393
  405
  417
  431
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  904
  294
  310
  328
  345
  363
  380
  398
  416
  435
  453
  473
  494
  514
  536
  559
  582
  606
  632
  658
  686
  714
  745
  776
  809
  844
  880
  917
  957
  997
  1,041
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  70
  59
  109
  124
  139
  154
  169
  184
  200
  215
  231
  247
  263
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  375
  397
  419
  442
  466
  491
  517
  545
  574
  604
  636
  669
  703
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -688
  -216
  -220
  -224
  -229
  -233
  -238
  -243
  -248
  -253
  -259
  -265
  -271
  -277
  -284
  -291
  -298
  -306
  -314
  -323
  -331
  -341
  -350
  -360
  -371
  -382
  -393
  -405
  -417
  -431
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -625
  -108
  -96
  -85
  -74
  -64
  -53
  -43
  -33
  -22
  -12
  -1
  10
  21
  32
  44
  56
  69
  82
  96
  110
  125
  141
  157
  174
  192
  211
  231
  251
  273
Discount rate, %
 
  14.80
  15.54
  16.32
  17.13
  17.99
  18.89
  19.83
  20.83
  21.87
  22.96
  24.11
  25.31
  26.58
  27.91
  29.30
  30.77
  32.31
  33.92
  35.62
  37.40
  39.27
  41.23
  43.29
  45.46
  47.73
  50.12
  52.62
  55.26
  58.02
  60.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -544
  -81
  -61
  -45
  -32
  -23
  -15
  -9
  -6
  -3
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  33.9
  23.0
  15.7
  10.7
  7.3
  5.0
  3.5
  2.4
  1.7
  1.2
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. operates as a holding company for Dime Community Bank (the Bank), a chartered savings bank. The Company is a unitary savings and loan holding company. The Company operates through Community Banking segment. The Bank's principal business is gathering retail deposits, and lending them primarily in multifamily residential, commercial real estate and mixed use loans, as well as investing in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), obligations of the United States Government and Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs), and corporate debt and equity securities. The Bank's primary sources of funds are, in general, deposits; loan amortization, prepayments and maturities; MBS amortization, prepayments and maturities; investment securities maturities and sales, and advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York (FHLBNY).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.3
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 53.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 500%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 12.5%
Total Debt to Equity 12.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 13.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 45.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.1%
Payout Ratio 28.8%

DCOM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DCOM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $174 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dime Community Bancshares. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dime Community Bancshares. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DCOM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.8%, whose default value for DCOM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dime Community Bancshares, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dime Community Bancshares.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DCOM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 7.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $68 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DCOM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Dime Community Bancshares.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dime Community Bancshares. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DCOM stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DCOM are equal to 3571.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dime Community Bancshares operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DCOM is equal to -3309.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Dime Community Bancshares - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37 million for Dime Community Bancshares is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dime Community Bancshares at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Dime: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 06:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Dime posts 4Q profit   [Jan-25-18 05:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Rated NYSE Financial Dividend Stocks   [Dec-14-17 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Dime posts 3Q profit   [Oct-27-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. Reports Earnings   [Oct-26-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Dime Community Bank Receives SBA Approval   [Aug-10-17 03:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Dime posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 01:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dime posts 1Q profit   [09:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ 7 Stocks With Growing Book Values   [Apr-05-17 05:19PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 2017 Dime McCarren 5K Run to Take Place on May 6, 2017   [Mar-01-17 10:40AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Dime posts 4Q profit   [Jan-26-17 07:25PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of DCOM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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