Intrinsic value of DCT Industrial Trust - DCT

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$52.97

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$52.97

 
Intrinsic value

$4.99

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DCT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DCT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.70
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  393
  450
  512
  577
  646
  719
  796
  877
  961
  1,049
  1,140
  1,235
  1,334
  1,437
  1,544
  1,655
  1,770
  1,890
  2,015
  2,145
  2,280
  2,421
  2,567
  2,720
  2,879
  3,045
  3,218
  3,399
  3,588
  3,785
  3,992
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  72
  82
  92
  103
  115
  127
  140
  154
  168
  182
  198
  213
  230
  247
  265
  283
  302
  322
  343
  365
  387
  411
  435
  461
  487
  515
  544
  574
  606
  639
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  240
  246
  252
  258
  265
  271
  278
  285
  292
  300
  307
  315
  323
  331
  339
  347
  356
  365
  374
  383
  393
  403
  413
  423
  434
  445
  456
  467
  479
  491
Total operating expenses, $m
  285
  312
  328
  344
  361
  380
  398
  418
  439
  460
  482
  505
  528
  553
  578
  604
  630
  658
  687
  717
  748
  780
  814
  848
  884
  921
  960
  1,000
  1,041
  1,085
  1,130
Operating income, $m
  108
  138
  184
  233
  285
  340
  397
  458
  522
  589
  658
  730
  806
  884
  966
  1,051
  1,140
  1,232
  1,328
  1,428
  1,532
  1,640
  1,754
  1,872
  1,995
  2,124
  2,259
  2,399
  2,547
  2,701
  2,862
EBITDA, $m
  269
  323
  394
  469
  550
  634
  724
  817
  916
  1,018
  1,125
  1,236
  1,352
  1,473
  1,599
  1,729
  1,865
  2,006
  2,153
  2,306
  2,466
  2,632
  2,805
  2,986
  3,174
  3,371
  3,577
  3,792
  4,016
  4,251
  4,497
Interest expense (income), $m
  57
  59
  69
  80
  92
  104
  117
  131
  145
  161
  176
  193
  210
  227
  246
  265
  285
  305
  327
  349
  372
  397
  422
  448
  475
  504
  533
  564
  597
  631
  666
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  80
  115
  153
  193
  235
  280
  327
  376
  428
  482
  538
  596
  657
  720
  786
  855
  926
  1,001
  1,079
  1,159
  1,244
  1,332
  1,424
  1,520
  1,620
  1,725
  1,835
  1,950
  2,070
  2,196
Tax expense, $m
  1
  22
  31
  41
  52
  64
  76
  88
  102
  116
  130
  145
  161
  177
  195
  212
  231
  250
  270
  291
  313
  336
  360
  384
  410
  437
  466
  495
  526
  559
  593
Net income, $m
  93
  58
  84
  111
  141
  172
  205
  239
  275
  312
  352
  393
  435
  480
  526
  574
  624
  676
  731
  787
  846
  908
  972
  1,039
  1,109
  1,183
  1,259
  1,339
  1,423
  1,511
  1,603

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,808
  4,373
  4,969
  5,604
  6,276
  6,985
  7,731
  8,512
  9,328
  10,180
  11,067
  11,991
  12,952
  13,951
  14,989
  16,067
  17,188
  18,354
  19,565
  20,825
  22,137
  23,502
  24,924
  26,406
  27,950
  29,562
  31,244
  33,000
  34,834
  36,751
  38,755
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,798
  4,373
  4,969
  5,604
  6,276
  6,985
  7,731
  8,512
  9,328
  10,180
  11,067
  11,991
  12,952
  13,951
  14,989
  16,067
  17,188
  18,354
  19,565
  20,825
  22,137
  23,502
  24,924
  26,406
  27,950
  29,562
  31,244
  33,000
  34,834
  36,751
  38,755
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
Average production assets, $m
  3,494
  4,003
  4,549
  5,131
  5,746
  6,396
  7,078
  7,793
  8,540
  9,320
  10,133
  10,979
  11,858
  12,773
  13,723
  14,711
  15,737
  16,804
  17,913
  19,067
  20,268
  21,517
  22,819
  24,176
  25,591
  27,066
  28,606
  30,214
  31,893
  33,648
  35,482
Working capital, $m
  0
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
Total debt, $m
  1,629
  1,922
  2,227
  2,552
  2,896
  3,260
  3,641
  4,041
  4,459
  4,895
  5,350
  5,823
  6,314
  6,826
  7,357
  7,910
  8,483
  9,080
  9,700
  10,346
  11,017
  11,716
  12,444
  13,203
  13,994
  14,819
  15,680
  16,579
  17,518
  18,499
  19,525
Total liabilities, $m
  1,946
  2,239
  2,544
  2,869
  3,213
  3,577
  3,958
  4,358
  4,776
  5,212
  5,667
  6,140
  6,631
  7,143
  7,674
  8,227
  8,800
  9,397
  10,017
  10,663
  11,334
  12,033
  12,761
  13,520
  14,311
  15,136
  15,997
  16,896
  17,835
  18,816
  19,842
Total equity, $m
  1,862
  2,134
  2,425
  2,735
  3,063
  3,409
  3,773
  4,154
  4,552
  4,968
  5,401
  5,852
  6,321
  6,808
  7,315
  7,841
  8,388
  8,957
  9,548
  10,163
  10,803
  11,469
  12,163
  12,886
  13,640
  14,426
  15,247
  16,104
  16,999
  17,934
  18,912
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,808
  4,373
  4,969
  5,604
  6,276
  6,986
  7,731
  8,512
  9,328
  10,180
  11,068
  11,992
  12,952
  13,951
  14,989
  16,068
  17,188
  18,354
  19,565
  20,826
  22,137
  23,502
  24,924
  26,406
  27,951
  29,562
  31,244
  33,000
  34,834
  36,750
  38,754
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.875
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  93
  58
  84
  111
  141
  172
  205
  239
  275
  312
  352
  393
  435
  480
  526
  574
  624
  676
  731
  787
  846
  908
  972
  1,039
  1,109
  1,183
  1,259
  1,339
  1,423
  1,511
  1,603
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  161
  184
  210
  236
  265
  295
  326
  359
  394
  430
  467
  506
  546
  589
  632
  678
  725
  774
  825
  879
  934
  992
  1,052
  1,114
  1,179
  1,247
  1,318
  1,392
  1,470
  1,551
  1,635
Funds from operations, $m
  245
  243
  294
  348
  406
  467
  531
  598
  668
  742
  819
  899
  982
  1,068
  1,158
  1,252
  1,349
  1,451
  1,556
  1,666
  1,780
  1,900
  2,024
  2,153
  2,289
  2,430
  2,578
  2,732
  2,893
  3,062
  3,238
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  221
  340
  295
  350
  407
  468
  533
  600
  670
  744
  821
  901
  984
  1,071
  1,161
  1,255
  1,352
  1,454
  1,559
  1,669
  1,784
  1,903
  2,027
  2,157
  2,293
  2,434
  2,582
  2,736
  2,898
  3,067
  3,244
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -161
  -184
  -210
  -236
  -265
  -295
  -326
  -359
  -394
  -430
  -467
  -506
  -546
  -589
  -632
  -678
  -725
  -774
  -825
  -879
  -934
  -992
  -1,052
  -1,114
  -1,179
  -1,247
  -1,318
  -1,392
  -1,470
  -1,551
New CAPEX, $m
  -289
  -510
  -546
  -581
  -616
  -649
  -682
  -715
  -747
  -780
  -813
  -846
  -880
  -914
  -950
  -988
  -1,026
  -1,067
  -1,109
  -1,154
  -1,201
  -1,250
  -1,302
  -1,357
  -1,415
  -1,475
  -1,540
  -1,608
  -1,679
  -1,755
  -1,835
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -313
  -671
  -730
  -791
  -852
  -914
  -977
  -1,041
  -1,106
  -1,174
  -1,243
  -1,313
  -1,386
  -1,460
  -1,539
  -1,620
  -1,704
  -1,792
  -1,883
  -1,979
  -2,080
  -2,184
  -2,294
  -2,409
  -2,529
  -2,654
  -2,787
  -2,926
  -3,071
  -3,225
  -3,386
Free cash flow, $m
  -92
  -331
  -435
  -441
  -445
  -446
  -444
  -441
  -436
  -429
  -421
  -412
  -401
  -390
  -378
  -365
  -352
  -338
  -324
  -310
  -296
  -281
  -266
  -251
  -236
  -221
  -205
  -190
  -174
  -158
  -142
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  74
  293
  305
  325
  344
  363
  382
  400
  418
  436
  454
  473
  492
  511
  531
  552
  574
  597
  620
  645
  671
  699
  728
  759
  791
  825
  861
  899
  939
  981
  1,026
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  109
  310
  421
  426
  429
  429
  427
  422
  416
  409
  400
  390
  378
  366
  353
  339
  325
  310
  295
  280
  264
  248
  232
  215
  199
  182
  165
  148
  130
  112
  93
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  164
  603
  726
  751
  773
  792
  809
  822
  834
  845
  854
  863
  870
  877
  884
  891
  899
  907
  915
  925
  935
  947
  960
  974
  990
  1,007
  1,026
  1,047
  1,069
  1,093
  1,119
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  -38
  -130
  -116
  -100
  -83
  -63
  -41
  -18
  7
  33
  61
  91
  121
  154
  187
  222
  258
  296
  335
  376
  418
  462
  508
  555
  604
  656
  709
  765
  824
  884
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -110
  -282
  -291
  -310
  -328
  -346
  -364
  -381
  -398
  -416
  -433
  -451
  -469
  -487
  -507
  -526
  -547
  -569
  -591
  -615
  -640
  -666
  -694
  -723
  -754
  -786
  -821
  -857
  -895
  -935
  -978
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.1
  87.6
  82.1
  77.5
  73.7
  70.3
  67.5
  65.0
  62.9
  61.1
  59.4
  58.0
  56.8
  55.7
  54.7
  53.9
  53.2
  52.5
  51.9
  51.4
  51.0
  50.6
  50.3
  50.0
  49.7
  49.5
  49.3
  49.2
  49.1
  49.0

DCT Industrial Trust Inc. operates as a publicly owned real estate investment trust. The firm provides its services to companies. Through its fund, it engages in the ownership, operation, and development of real estate properties. The firm specializes in the ownership, acquisition, development, and management of institutional capital management program. It invests in the real estate markets of United States and Mexico. The firm is also invests in selected international markets. It primarily invests in commercial real estate properties, including generic distribution warehouses and light industrial properties. The firm was formerly known as Dividend Capital Trust Inc. DCT Industrial Trust was founded in 2002 and is based in Denver, Colorado with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia and Dallas, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DCT Industrial Trust (DCT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 52.1
Price to Sales 12.3
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -71.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 87.5%
Total Debt to Equity 87.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.6%
EBITDA Margin 80.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.1%
Operating Margin 27.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Net Profit Margin 23.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Effective Tax Rate 1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Payout Ratio 111.8%

DCT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DCT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $393 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DCT Industrial Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DCT Industrial Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DCT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for DCT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DCT Industrial Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DCT Industrial Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DCT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 16%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $234 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DCT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for DCT Industrial Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DCT Industrial Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DCT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DCT are equal to 888.9%.

Life of production assets of 21.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DCT Industrial Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DCT is equal to -2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1862 million for DCT Industrial Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.308 million for DCT Industrial Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DCT Industrial Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DCT reports 1Q results   [May-04-17 05:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Trump's election led to Atlanta real estate deal   [Feb-17-17 03:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Is DCT Industrial Trust Inc (DCT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-19-16 11:31PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of DCT Financial statements of DCT Annual reports of DCT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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