Intrinsic value of DCT Industrial Trust - DCT

Previous Close

$56.10

  Intrinsic Value

$4.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$56.10

 
Intrinsic value

$4.98

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DCT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DCT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.70
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  393
  413
  433
  455
  478
  502
  527
  553
  581
  610
  640
  672
  706
  741
  778
  817
  858
  901
  946
  993
  1,043
  1,095
  1,150
  1,207
  1,267
  1,331
  1,397
  1,467
  1,541
  1,618
  1,699
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  102
  108
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  246
  259
  272
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  240
  246
  252
  258
  265
  271
  278
  285
  292
  300
  307
  315
  323
  331
  339
  347
  356
  365
  374
  383
  393
  403
  413
  423
  434
  445
  456
  467
  479
  491
Total operating expenses, $m
  285
  306
  315
  325
  334
  345
  355
  366
  378
  390
  402
  415
  428
  442
  455
  470
  484
  500
  516
  533
  550
  568
  587
  606
  626
  647
  669
  691
  713
  738
  763
Operating income, $m
  108
  107
  118
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  203
  220
  238
  258
  278
  300
  323
  347
  373
  401
  430
  460
  492
  527
  563
  601
  641
  684
  729
  777
  827
  880
  936
EBITDA, $m
  269
  276
  296
  317
  339
  362
  387
  413
  440
  470
  500
  533
  567
  603
  642
  682
  725
  770
  817
  867
  920
  975
  1,034
  1,096
  1,161
  1,229
  1,302
  1,378
  1,458
  1,543
  1,632
Interest expense (income), $m
  57
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  185
  194
  205
  215
  227
  239
  251
  264
  278
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  48
  56
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  127
  141
  154
  169
  185
  202
  220
  238
  258
  280
  302
  326
  351
  378
  407
  437
  469
  502
  538
  576
  616
  658
Tax expense, $m
  1
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  166
  178
Net income, $m
  93
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  68
  76
  84
  93
  103
  113
  124
  135
  147
  160
  174
  189
  204
  221
  238
  257
  276
  297
  319
  342
  367
  393
  420
  449
  480

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,808
  4,006
  4,207
  4,417
  4,638
  4,870
  5,113
  5,369
  5,637
  5,919
  6,215
  6,526
  6,852
  7,195
  7,554
  7,932
  8,329
  8,745
  9,183
  9,642
  10,124
  10,630
  11,161
  11,720
  12,305
  12,921
  13,567
  14,245
  14,957
  15,705
  16,491
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,798
  4,006
  4,207
  4,417
  4,638
  4,870
  5,113
  5,369
  5,637
  5,919
  6,215
  6,526
  6,852
  7,195
  7,554
  7,932
  8,329
  8,745
  9,183
  9,642
  10,124
  10,630
  11,161
  11,720
  12,305
  12,921
  13,567
  14,245
  14,957
  15,705
  16,491
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
Average production assets, $m
  3,494
  3,668
  3,851
  4,044
  4,246
  4,459
  4,681
  4,916
  5,161
  5,419
  5,690
  5,975
  6,274
  6,587
  6,917
  7,262
  7,626
  8,007
  8,407
  8,828
  9,269
  9,732
  10,219
  10,730
  11,266
  11,830
  12,421
  13,042
  13,694
  14,379
  15,098
Working capital, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
Total debt, $m
  1,629
  1,734
  1,837
  1,944
  2,058
  2,176
  2,301
  2,432
  2,569
  2,714
  2,865
  3,024
  3,191
  3,367
  3,551
  3,744
  3,947
  4,161
  4,384
  4,620
  4,866
  5,126
  5,398
  5,683
  5,983
  6,298
  6,629
  6,977
  7,341
  7,724
  8,126
Total liabilities, $m
  1,946
  2,051
  2,154
  2,261
  2,375
  2,493
  2,618
  2,749
  2,886
  3,031
  3,182
  3,341
  3,508
  3,684
  3,868
  4,061
  4,264
  4,478
  4,701
  4,937
  5,183
  5,443
  5,715
  6,000
  6,300
  6,615
  6,946
  7,294
  7,658
  8,041
  8,443
Total equity, $m
  1,862
  1,955
  2,053
  2,155
  2,263
  2,376
  2,495
  2,620
  2,751
  2,889
  3,033
  3,185
  3,344
  3,511
  3,687
  3,871
  4,064
  4,268
  4,481
  4,705
  4,940
  5,187
  5,447
  5,719
  6,005
  6,305
  6,621
  6,952
  7,299
  7,664
  8,047
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,808
  4,006
  4,207
  4,416
  4,638
  4,869
  5,113
  5,369
  5,637
  5,920
  6,215
  6,526
  6,852
  7,195
  7,555
  7,932
  8,328
  8,746
  9,182
  9,642
  10,123
  10,630
  11,162
  11,719
  12,305
  12,920
  13,567
  14,246
  14,957
  15,705
  16,490
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.875
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  93
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  68
  76
  84
  93
  103
  113
  124
  135
  147
  160
  174
  189
  204
  221
  238
  257
  276
  297
  319
  342
  367
  393
  420
  449
  480
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  205
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
  335
  351
  369
  387
  407
  427
  448
  471
  494
  519
  545
  572
  601
  631
  663
  696
Funds from operations, $m
  245
  204
  218
  233
  249
  266
  283
  302
  322
  343
  365
  388
  413
  439
  466
  495
  525
  558
  592
  627
  665
  705
  747
  791
  838
  887
  939
  994
  1,051
  1,112
  1,176
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  221
  205
  219
  234
  250
  266
  284
  303
  323
  343
  366
  389
  414
  440
  467
  496
  526
  559
  593
  629
  666
  706
  748
  793
  840
  889
  941
  996
  1,053
  1,114
  1,178
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -369
  -387
  -407
  -427
  -448
  -471
  -494
  -519
  -545
  -572
  -601
  -631
  -663
New CAPEX, $m
  -289
  -175
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -346
  -363
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -463
  -487
  -511
  -536
  -563
  -591
  -621
  -652
  -685
  -719
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -313
  -336
  -352
  -370
  -388
  -408
  -428
  -450
  -473
  -496
  -521
  -547
  -574
  -603
  -633
  -665
  -698
  -732
  -769
  -807
  -848
  -890
  -935
  -982
  -1,030
  -1,082
  -1,136
  -1,193
  -1,253
  -1,316
  -1,382
Free cash flow, $m
  -92
  -131
  -134
  -136
  -139
  -142
  -144
  -147
  -150
  -152
  -155
  -158
  -161
  -163
  -166
  -169
  -171
  -174
  -177
  -179
  -182
  -184
  -187
  -189
  -191
  -194
  -196
  -198
  -200
  -202
  -204
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  74
  105
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  347
  365
  383
  402
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  109
  68
  57
  56
  55
  53
  51
  49
  47
  45
  42
  39
  36
  32
  28
  24
  19
  15
  9
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  164
  173
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  180
  184
  189
  194
  198
  203
  207
  212
  217
  222
  228
  233
  238
  247
  259
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  347
  365
  383
  402
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  42
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  65
  75
  85
  97
  109
  121
  135
  149
  165
  181
  198
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -110
  -103
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -300
  -315
  -331
  -348
  -365
  -383
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -51
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -170
  -172
  -174
  -176
  -177
  -179
  -180
  -182
  -183
  -184
  -185
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -47
  -61
  -58
  -55
  -51
  -48
  -44
  -40
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.7
  97.7
  96.8
  95.9
  95.1
  94.4
  93.7
  93.1
  92.6
  92.1
  91.7
  91.4
  91.1
  90.8
  90.6
  90.4
  90.3
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2
  90.2

DCT Industrial Trust Inc. (DCT) is an industrial real estate company. The Company specializes in the ownership, acquisition, development, leasing and management of bulk-distribution and light-industrial properties located in various distribution markets in the United States. The Company operates through three segments: East, Central and West. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned interests in approximately 74.0 million square feet of properties leased to various customers, including 64.7 million square feet consisting of 401 consolidated operating properties that were 97.2% occupied; 7.8 million square feet consisting of 23 unconsolidated properties that were 97.8% occupied; 0.3 million square feet consisting of three consolidated properties under redevelopment, and 1.2 million square feet consisting of four consolidated properties. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's total consolidated portfolio consisted of 408 properties with an average size of 162,000 square feet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DCT Industrial Trust (DCT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 55.2
Price to Sales 13.1
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -75.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 87.5%
Total Debt to Equity 87.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.6%
EBITDA Margin 80.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.1%
Operating Margin 27.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Net Profit Margin 23.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Effective Tax Rate 1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Payout Ratio 111.8%

DCT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DCT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $393 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DCT Industrial Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DCT Industrial Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DCT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for DCT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DCT Industrial Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DCT Industrial Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DCT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 16%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $234 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DCT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for DCT Industrial Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DCT Industrial Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DCT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DCT are equal to 888.9%.

Life of production assets of 21.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DCT Industrial Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DCT is equal to -2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1862 million for DCT Industrial Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.569 million for DCT Industrial Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DCT Industrial Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DCT Industrial Trust Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-02-18 07:50AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ DCT reports 4Q results   [Feb-01-18 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: DCT Industrial Trust   [Dec-28-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ DCT Industrial Trust: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [06:27AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ DCT Industrial Trust Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-03-17 09:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ DCT Industrial Trust® Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-02-17 07:16PM  Business Wire]
▶ DCT reports 3Q results   [04:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ DCT reports 2Q results   [03:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ DCT Industrial Trust® Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ 2 Undercover Dividends With 100%+ Upside   [Jul-09-17 09:15AM  Forbes]
▶ DCT reports 1Q results   [May-04-17 05:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Trump's election led to Atlanta real estate deal   [Feb-17-17 03:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of DCT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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