Intrinsic value of DCT Industrial Trust - DCT

Previous Close

$58.71

  Intrinsic Value

$4.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

-12%

Previous close

$58.71

 
Intrinsic value

$4.97

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-12%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DCT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DCT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.70
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  393
  430
  468
  509
  550
  594
  639
  686
  734
  785
  838
  892
  949
  1,009
  1,070
  1,135
  1,202
  1,272
  1,344
  1,421
  1,500
  1,583
  1,670
  1,761
  1,855
  1,955
  2,059
  2,167
  2,281
  2,401
  2,526
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  182
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  253
  267
  282
  297
  313
  329
  347
  365
  384
  404
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  240
  246
  252
  258
  265
  271
  278
  285
  292
  300
  307
  315
  323
  331
  339
  347
  356
  365
  374
  383
  393
  403
  413
  423
  434
  445
  456
  467
  479
  491
Total operating expenses, $m
  285
  309
  321
  333
  346
  360
  373
  388
  403
  418
  434
  450
  467
  484
  502
  521
  539
  559
  580
  601
  623
  646
  670
  695
  720
  747
  774
  803
  832
  863
  895
Operating income, $m
  108
  121
  148
  175
  204
  234
  265
  298
  332
  367
  404
  443
  483
  525
  568
  614
  662
  712
  764
  819
  877
  937
  1,000
  1,066
  1,135
  1,208
  1,285
  1,365
  1,449
  1,538
  1,631
EBITDA, $m
  269
  297
  340
  384
  429
  477
  527
  579
  633
  689
  747
  808
  872
  938
  1,007
  1,079
  1,154
  1,233
  1,315
  1,401
  1,491
  1,585
  1,684
  1,787
  1,895
  2,009
  2,128
  2,253
  2,384
  2,521
  2,665
Interest expense (income), $m
  57
  59
  66
  72
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  287
  304
  321
  338
  357
  376
  397
  418
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  63
  82
  103
  124
  147
  170
  195
  221
  247
  275
  304
  334
  366
  399
  434
  470
  508
  548
  590
  634
  680
  728
  779
  832
  888
  946
  1,008
  1,073
  1,141
  1,213
Tax expense, $m
  1
  17
  22
  28
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  197
  210
  225
  240
  255
  272
  290
  308
  327
Net income, $m
  93
  46
  60
  75
  91
  107
  124
  142
  161
  180
  201
  222
  244
  267
  292
  317
  343
  371
  400
  431
  463
  496
  531
  568
  607
  648
  691
  736
  783
  833
  885

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,808
  4,174
  4,548
  4,938
  5,343
  5,764
  6,202
  6,658
  7,130
  7,622
  8,133
  8,665
  9,217
  9,793
  10,392
  11,016
  11,667
  12,345
  13,053
  13,792
  14,564
  15,370
  16,212
  17,093
  18,014
  18,978
  19,987
  21,043
  22,149
  23,308
  24,521
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,798
  4,174
  4,548
  4,938
  5,343
  5,764
  6,202
  6,658
  7,130
  7,622
  8,133
  8,665
  9,217
  9,793
  10,392
  11,016
  11,667
  12,345
  13,053
  13,792
  14,564
  15,370
  16,212
  17,093
  18,014
  18,978
  19,987
  21,043
  22,149
  23,308
  24,521
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
Average production assets, $m
  3,494
  3,822
  4,164
  4,521
  4,892
  5,278
  5,679
  6,095
  6,528
  6,979
  7,446
  7,933
  8,439
  8,966
  9,515
  10,086
  10,682
  11,303
  11,951
  12,627
  13,334
  14,072
  14,843
  15,650
  16,493
  17,376
  18,299
  19,266
  20,279
  21,340
  22,451
Working capital, $m
  0
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
Total debt, $m
  1,629
  1,820
  2,012
  2,211
  2,419
  2,634
  2,859
  3,092
  3,334
  3,585
  3,847
  4,119
  4,402
  4,697
  5,004
  5,323
  5,656
  6,004
  6,366
  6,744
  7,140
  7,552
  7,984
  8,435
  8,906
  9,400
  9,916
  10,457
  11,023
  11,617
  12,238
Total liabilities, $m
  1,946
  2,137
  2,329
  2,528
  2,736
  2,951
  3,176
  3,409
  3,651
  3,902
  4,164
  4,436
  4,719
  5,014
  5,321
  5,640
  5,973
  6,321
  6,683
  7,061
  7,457
  7,869
  8,301
  8,752
  9,223
  9,717
  10,233
  10,774
  11,340
  11,934
  12,555
Total equity, $m
  1,862
  2,037
  2,220
  2,410
  2,607
  2,813
  3,027
  3,249
  3,480
  3,720
  3,969
  4,228
  4,498
  4,779
  5,071
  5,376
  5,693
  6,024
  6,370
  6,730
  7,107
  7,500
  7,911
  8,341
  8,791
  9,261
  9,754
  10,269
  10,809
  11,374
  11,966
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,808
  4,174
  4,549
  4,938
  5,343
  5,764
  6,203
  6,658
  7,131
  7,622
  8,133
  8,664
  9,217
  9,793
  10,392
  11,016
  11,666
  12,345
  13,053
  13,791
  14,564
  15,369
  16,212
  17,093
  18,014
  18,978
  19,987
  21,043
  22,149
  23,308
  24,521
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.875
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  93
  46
  60
  75
  91
  107
  124
  142
  161
  180
  201
  222
  244
  267
  292
  317
  343
  371
  400
  431
  463
  496
  531
  568
  607
  648
  691
  736
  783
  833
  885
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  161
  176
  192
  208
  225
  243
  262
  281
  301
  322
  343
  366
  389
  413
  438
  465
  492
  521
  551
  582
  614
  648
  684
  721
  760
  801
  843
  888
  935
  983
  1,035
Funds from operations, $m
  245
  222
  252
  283
  316
  350
  386
  423
  462
  502
  544
  588
  633
  681
  730
  782
  836
  892
  951
  1,013
  1,077
  1,145
  1,215
  1,290
  1,367
  1,449
  1,534
  1,624
  1,718
  1,816
  1,920
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  221
  223
  253
  284
  317
  352
  387
  424
  463
  503
  545
  589
  635
  682
  732
  783
  837
  894
  953
  1,015
  1,079
  1,147
  1,218
  1,292
  1,370
  1,451
  1,537
  1,626
  1,720
  1,819
  1,923
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -161
  -176
  -192
  -208
  -225
  -243
  -262
  -281
  -301
  -322
  -343
  -366
  -389
  -413
  -438
  -465
  -492
  -521
  -551
  -582
  -614
  -648
  -684
  -721
  -760
  -801
  -843
  -888
  -935
  -983
New CAPEX, $m
  -289
  -328
  -342
  -357
  -371
  -386
  -401
  -417
  -433
  -450
  -468
  -487
  -506
  -527
  -549
  -571
  -596
  -621
  -648
  -676
  -706
  -738
  -771
  -806
  -844
  -883
  -924
  -967
  -1,013
  -1,061
  -1,111
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -313
  -489
  -518
  -549
  -579
  -611
  -644
  -679
  -714
  -751
  -790
  -830
  -872
  -916
  -962
  -1,009
  -1,061
  -1,113
  -1,169
  -1,227
  -1,288
  -1,352
  -1,419
  -1,490
  -1,565
  -1,643
  -1,725
  -1,810
  -1,901
  -1,996
  -2,094
Free cash flow, $m
  -92
  -266
  -266
  -264
  -262
  -260
  -257
  -254
  -251
  -248
  -244
  -241
  -237
  -234
  -230
  -227
  -223
  -220
  -216
  -213
  -209
  -206
  -202
  -199
  -195
  -191
  -188
  -184
  -180
  -176
  -172
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  74
  191
  191
  199
  207
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  566
  593
  621
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  109
  139
  123
  115
  107
  98
  89
  80
  70
  59
  49
  37
  26
  13
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  164
  330
  314
  314
  314
  314
  313
  313
  312
  311
  311
  309
  309
  308
  308
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  566
  593
  621
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  64
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  93
  110
  128
  146
  166
  186
  207
  229
  252
  277
  302
  329
  357
  386
  417
  450
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -110
  -185
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -305
  -317
  -331
  -345
  -361
  -377
  -393
  -411
  -430
  -450
  -470
  -492
  -515
  -540
  -565
  -592
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -111
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -212
  -208
  -203
  -199
  -195
  -191
  -186
  -182
  -178
  -173
  -168
  -164
  -159
  -153
  -148
  -143
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -103
  -114
  -107
  -101
  -94
  -86
  -78
  -70
  -62
  -55
  -47
  -40
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.5
  95.6
  93.9
  92.5
  91.4
  90.4
  89.6
  89.0
  88.4
  88.1
  87.8
  87.6
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5
  87.5

DCT Industrial Trust Inc. (DCT) is an industrial real estate company. The Company specializes in the ownership, acquisition, development, leasing and management of bulk-distribution and light-industrial properties located in various distribution markets in the United States. The Company operates through three segments: East, Central and West. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned interests in approximately 74.0 million square feet of properties leased to various customers, including 64.7 million square feet consisting of 401 consolidated operating properties that were 97.2% occupied; 7.8 million square feet consisting of 23 unconsolidated properties that were 97.8% occupied; 0.3 million square feet consisting of three consolidated properties under redevelopment, and 1.2 million square feet consisting of four consolidated properties. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's total consolidated portfolio consisted of 408 properties with an average size of 162,000 square feet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DCT Industrial Trust (DCT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 57.8
Price to Sales 13.7
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -79
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 87.5%
Total Debt to Equity 87.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.6%
EBITDA Margin 80.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.1%
Operating Margin 27.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Net Profit Margin 23.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Effective Tax Rate 1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Payout Ratio 111.8%

DCT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DCT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $393 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DCT Industrial Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DCT Industrial Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DCT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for DCT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DCT Industrial Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DCT Industrial Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DCT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 16%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $234 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DCT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for DCT Industrial Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DCT Industrial Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DCT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DCT are equal to 888.9%.

Life of production assets of 21.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DCT Industrial Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DCT is equal to -2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1862 million for DCT Industrial Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.723 million for DCT Industrial Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DCT Industrial Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DCT reports 2Q results   [03:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ DCT Industrial Trust® Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ 2 Undercover Dividends With 100%+ Upside   [Jul-09-17 09:15AM  Forbes]
▶ DCT reports 1Q results   [May-04-17 05:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Trump's election led to Atlanta real estate deal   [Feb-17-17 03:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Is DCT Industrial Trust Inc (DCT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-19-16 11:31PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of DCT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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