Intrinsic value of DDR Corp - DDR

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$8.46

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$8.46

 
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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DDR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DDR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.14
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,006
  1,026
  1,050
  1,077
  1,107
  1,141
  1,177
  1,217
  1,261
  1,308
  1,358
  1,412
  1,469
  1,530
  1,595
  1,663
  1,736
  1,813
  1,895
  1,981
  2,072
  2,168
  2,270
  2,376
  2,489
  2,607
  2,732
  2,864
  3,002
  3,147
  3,300
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,050
  1,074
  1,101
  1,132
  1,167
  1,204
  1,245
  1,290
  1,338
  1,389
  1,444
  1,503
  1,565
  1,631
  1,702
  1,776
  1,855
  1,939
  2,027
  2,120
  2,218
  2,322
  2,431
  2,546
  2,667
  2,795
  2,929
  3,071
  3,219
  3,376
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  850
  1,050
  1,074
  1,101
  1,132
  1,167
  1,204
  1,245
  1,290
  1,338
  1,389
  1,444
  1,503
  1,565
  1,631
  1,702
  1,776
  1,855
  1,939
  2,027
  2,120
  2,218
  2,322
  2,431
  2,546
  2,667
  2,795
  2,929
  3,071
  3,219
  3,376
Operating income, $m
  156
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
EBITDA, $m
  546
  374
  382
  392
  403
  415
  429
  443
  459
  476
  494
  514
  535
  557
  580
  606
  632
  660
  690
  721
  754
  789
  826
  865
  906
  949
  995
  1,042
  1,093
  1,146
  1,201
Interest expense (income), $m
  222
  207
  212
  217
  223
  230
  237
  246
  255
  265
  275
  287
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
  373
  390
  409
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  544
  570
  599
  629
  660
  693
Earnings before tax, $m
  -10
  -230
  -236
  -242
  -248
  -256
  -265
  -274
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -333
  -347
  -363
  -379
  -396
  -414
  -434
  -454
  -476
  -499
  -523
  -548
  -575
  -604
  -633
  -665
  -698
  -732
  -769
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  60
  -230
  -236
  -242
  -248
  -256
  -265
  -274
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -333
  -347
  -363
  -379
  -396
  -414
  -434
  -454
  -476
  -499
  -523
  -548
  -575
  -604
  -633
  -665
  -698
  -732
  -769

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,198
  8,342
  8,534
  8,754
  9,000
  9,273
  9,572
  9,898
  10,251
  10,631
  11,039
  11,476
  11,941
  12,437
  12,964
  13,524
  14,116
  14,744
  15,407
  16,108
  16,848
  17,629
  18,453
  19,321
  20,235
  21,199
  22,213
  23,281
  24,404
  25,586
  26,829
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,168
  8,342
  8,534
  8,754
  9,000
  9,273
  9,572
  9,898
  10,251
  10,631
  11,039
  11,476
  11,941
  12,437
  12,964
  13,524
  14,116
  14,744
  15,407
  16,108
  16,848
  17,629
  18,453
  19,321
  20,235
  21,199
  22,213
  23,281
  24,404
  25,586
  26,829
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
Average production assets, $m
  7,749
  7,903
  8,085
  8,293
  8,526
  8,784
  9,068
  9,377
  9,711
  10,071
  10,458
  10,871
  11,313
  11,782
  12,282
  12,811
  13,373
  13,967
  14,596
  15,260
  15,961
  16,701
  17,481
  18,303
  19,170
  20,082
  21,043
  22,055
  23,119
  24,239
  25,416
Working capital, $m
  0
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
Total debt, $m
  4,494
  4,598
  4,714
  4,847
  4,997
  5,163
  5,344
  5,542
  5,756
  5,987
  6,235
  6,500
  6,782
  7,083
  7,403
  7,743
  8,103
  8,483
  8,886
  9,311
  9,761
  10,235
  10,735
  11,262
  11,817
  12,402
  13,017
  13,665
  14,347
  15,065
  15,819
Total liabilities, $m
  4,960
  5,064
  5,180
  5,313
  5,463
  5,629
  5,810
  6,008
  6,222
  6,453
  6,701
  6,966
  7,248
  7,549
  7,869
  8,209
  8,569
  8,949
  9,352
  9,777
  10,227
  10,701
  11,201
  11,728
  12,283
  12,868
  13,483
  14,131
  14,813
  15,531
  16,285
Total equity, $m
  3,238
  3,279
  3,354
  3,440
  3,537
  3,644
  3,762
  3,890
  4,029
  4,178
  4,338
  4,510
  4,693
  4,888
  5,095
  5,315
  5,548
  5,794
  6,055
  6,330
  6,621
  6,928
  7,252
  7,593
  7,952
  8,331
  8,730
  9,149
  9,591
  10,055
  10,544
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,198
  8,343
  8,534
  8,753
  9,000
  9,273
  9,572
  9,898
  10,251
  10,631
  11,039
  11,476
  11,941
  12,437
  12,964
  13,524
  14,117
  14,743
  15,407
  16,107
  16,848
  17,629
  18,453
  19,321
  20,235
  21,199
  22,213
  23,280
  24,404
  25,586
  26,829
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.388
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  60
  -230
  -236
  -242
  -248
  -256
  -265
  -274
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -333
  -347
  -363
  -379
  -396
  -414
  -434
  -454
  -476
  -499
  -523
  -548
  -575
  -604
  -633
  -665
  -698
  -732
  -769
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  390
  397
  406
  417
  428
  441
  456
  471
  488
  506
  526
  546
  568
  592
  617
  644
  672
  702
  733
  767
  802
  839
  878
  920
  963
  1,009
  1,057
  1,108
  1,162
  1,218
  1,277
Funds from operations, $m
  434
  167
  171
  175
  180
  185
  191
  197
  204
  211
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  300
  312
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  424
  444
  464
  486
  508
Change in working capital, $m
  -29
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  463
  -209
  171
  176
  181
  186
  192
  199
  205
  213
  220
  229
  237
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  358
  375
  391
  409
  428
  448
  468
  490
  513
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -389
  -397
  -406
  -417
  -428
  -441
  -456
  -471
  -488
  -506
  -526
  -546
  -568
  -592
  -617
  -644
  -672
  -702
  -733
  -767
  -802
  -839
  -878
  -920
  -963
  -1,009
  -1,057
  -1,108
  -1,162
  -1,218
New CAPEX, $m
  -309
  -155
  -182
  -208
  -233
  -258
  -284
  -309
  -334
  -360
  -387
  -414
  -441
  -470
  -499
  -530
  -561
  -594
  -628
  -664
  -701
  -740
  -780
  -822
  -867
  -913
  -961
  -1,011
  -1,064
  -1,120
  -1,178
Cash from investing activities, $m
  472
  -544
  -579
  -614
  -650
  -686
  -725
  -765
  -805
  -848
  -893
  -940
  -987
  -1,038
  -1,091
  -1,147
  -1,205
  -1,266
  -1,330
  -1,397
  -1,468
  -1,542
  -1,619
  -1,700
  -1,787
  -1,876
  -1,970
  -2,068
  -2,172
  -2,282
  -2,396
Free cash flow, $m
  935
  -753
  -408
  -438
  -469
  -501
  -533
  -566
  -600
  -636
  -672
  -710
  -750
  -792
  -835
  -880
  -927
  -977
  -1,028
  -1,082
  -1,139
  -1,199
  -1,261
  -1,326
  -1,395
  -1,467
  -1,542
  -1,621
  -1,704
  -1,791
  -1,883
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -646
  104
  116
  133
  149
  166
  182
  198
  214
  231
  248
  265
  283
  301
  320
  339
  360
  381
  403
  425
  449
  474
  500
  527
  555
  585
  616
  648
  682
  717
  755
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  690
  367
  391
  416
  442
  469
  496
  525
  554
  585
  617
  650
  685
  722
  760
  800
  842
  886
  932
  981
  1,032
  1,085
  1,141
  1,199
  1,261
  1,325
  1,393
  1,464
  1,538
  1,617
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -633
  794
  483
  524
  565
  608
  651
  694
  739
  785
  833
  882
  933
  986
  1,042
  1,099
  1,160
  1,223
  1,289
  1,357
  1,430
  1,506
  1,585
  1,668
  1,754
  1,846
  1,941
  2,041
  2,146
  2,255
  2,372
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  302
  -649
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -445
  -467
  -491
  -515
  -540
  -567
  -596
  -626
  -657
  -690
  -725
  -761
  -799
  -840
  -882
  -926
  -973
  -1,022
  -1,074
  -1,128
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  217
  -71
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -107
  -118
  -128
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -183
  -195
  -207
  -220
  -233
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -291
  -307
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -379
  -399
  -420
  -442
  -464
  -489
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  9.50
  9.98
  10.47
  11.00
  11.55
  12.12
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.47
  16.25
  17.06
  17.91
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.77
  22.86
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.79
  29.18
  30.64
  32.17
  33.78
  35.47
  37.24
  39.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.3
  72.6
  64.6
  57.2
  50.4
  44.3
  38.8
  34.0
  29.6
  25.7
  22.3
  19.4
  16.7
  14.5
  12.5
  10.7
  9.2
  7.9
  6.8
  5.8
  5.0
  4.3
  3.7
  3.1
  2.7
  2.3
  2.0
  1.7
  1.4
  1.2

DDR Corp. is an equity real estate investment trust. It invests in the real estate markets of the United States and Puerto Rico. The firm is in the business of acquiring, owning, developing, redeveloping, expanding, leasing and managing shopping centers. It formerly known as Developers Diversified Realty Corp. DDR Corp is based in Beachwood, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DDR Corp (DDR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.5
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 138.8%
Total Debt to Equity 138.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 0.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity 1.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.8%
EBITDA Margin 59.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.2%
Operating Margin 15.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.1%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate -20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Payout Ratio 490%

DDR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DDR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1006 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DDR Corp. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DDR Corp. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DDR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.5%, whose default value for DDR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DDR Corp, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DDR Corp.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DDR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 102.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DDR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for DDR Corp.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DDR Corp. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DDR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DDR are equal to 770.2%.

Life of production assets of 19.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DDR Corp operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DDR is equal to -3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3238 million for DDR Corp - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 357.902 million for DDR Corp is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DDR Corp at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.


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Stock chart of DDR Financial statements of DDR Annual reports of DDR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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