Intrinsic value of Easterly Government Properties - DEA

Previous Close

$19.20

  Intrinsic Value

$3.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$19.20

 
Intrinsic value

$3.18

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DEA.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  47.89
  25.90
  23.81
  21.93
  20.24
  18.71
  17.34
  16.11
  15.00
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
Revenue, $m
  105
  132
  164
  200
  240
  285
  334
  388
  446
  509
  575
  646
  721
  799
  882
  968
  1,058
  1,152
  1,250
  1,351
  1,457
  1,567
  1,681
  1,800
  1,923
  2,051
  2,185
  2,323
  2,468
  2,618
  2,775
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  97
  120
  146
  176
  209
  245
  284
  327
  373
  422
  474
  528
  586
  646
  710
  776
  844
  916
  991
  1,068
  1,149
  1,232
  1,319
  1,410
  1,504
  1,601
  1,703
  1,809
  1,919
  2,034
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  112
  136
  162
  193
  226
  262
  302
  345
  392
  441
  494
  548
  607
  667
  732
  798
  867
  939
  1,015
  1,093
  1,174
  1,258
  1,345
  1,437
  1,532
  1,630
  1,732
  1,839
  1,950
  2,065
Operating income, $m
  13
  20
  28
  37
  48
  59
  72
  86
  101
  117
  134
  153
  172
  193
  214
  237
  260
  285
  310
  337
  364
  393
  423
  454
  486
  520
  555
  591
  629
  668
  709
EBITDA, $m
  60
  79
  101
  127
  155
  187
  222
  260
  301
  345
  392
  442
  495
  551
  609
  670
  734
  801
  870
  942
  1,017
  1,095
  1,176
  1,260
  1,348
  1,439
  1,533
  1,632
  1,734
  1,841
  1,952
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  10
  15
  20
  26
  32
  39
  47
  56
  65
  76
  86
  98
  110
  123
  136
  150
  164
  180
  195
  212
  229
  247
  265
  285
  304
  325
  347
  369
  393
  417
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  10
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  38
  45
  52
  59
  66
  74
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  131
  141
  153
  164
  176
  189
  202
  215
  230
  244
  260
  276
  292
Tax expense, $m
  0
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
Net income, $m
  3
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  168
  178
  190
  201
  214

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,045
  1,309
  1,621
  1,976
  2,376
  2,820
  3,309
  3,842
  4,419
  5,037
  5,697
  6,397
  7,136
  7,914
  8,730
  9,584
  10,476
  11,405
  12,373
  13,380
  14,427
  15,515
  16,645
  17,820
  19,041
  20,310
  21,631
  23,004
  24,434
  25,923
  27,475
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,040
  1,309
  1,621
  1,976
  2,376
  2,820
  3,309
  3,842
  4,419
  5,037
  5,697
  6,397
  7,136
  7,914
  8,730
  9,584
  10,476
  11,405
  12,373
  13,380
  14,427
  15,515
  16,645
  17,820
  19,041
  20,310
  21,631
  23,004
  24,434
  25,923
  27,475
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
Average production assets, $m
  950
  1,196
  1,481
  1,806
  2,171
  2,577
  3,024
  3,511
  4,038
  4,603
  5,206
  5,846
  6,521
  7,232
  7,978
  8,758
  9,573
  10,423
  11,307
  12,227
  13,184
  14,178
  15,211
  16,285
  17,401
  18,561
  19,767
  21,023
  22,329
  23,690
  25,108
Working capital, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -126
  -133
Total debt, $m
  293
  418
  564
  730
  916
  1,124
  1,352
  1,601
  1,870
  2,159
  2,467
  2,794
  3,140
  3,503
  3,884
  4,283
  4,699
  5,133
  5,585
  6,055
  6,544
  7,052
  7,580
  8,129
  8,699
  9,292
  9,909
  10,550
  11,218
  11,913
  12,638
Total liabilities, $m
  486
  611
  757
  923
  1,109
  1,317
  1,545
  1,794
  2,063
  2,352
  2,660
  2,987
  3,333
  3,696
  4,077
  4,476
  4,892
  5,326
  5,778
  6,248
  6,737
  7,245
  7,773
  8,322
  8,892
  9,485
  10,102
  10,743
  11,411
  12,106
  12,831
Total equity, $m
  559
  698
  864
  1,053
  1,266
  1,503
  1,764
  2,048
  2,355
  2,685
  3,036
  3,409
  3,804
  4,218
  4,653
  5,108
  5,584
  6,079
  6,595
  7,131
  7,689
  8,269
  8,872
  9,498
  10,149
  10,825
  11,529
  12,261
  13,023
  13,817
  14,644
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,045
  1,309
  1,621
  1,976
  2,375
  2,820
  3,309
  3,842
  4,418
  5,037
  5,696
  6,396
  7,137
  7,914
  8,730
  9,584
  10,476
  11,405
  12,373
  13,379
  14,426
  15,514
  16,645
  17,820
  19,041
  20,310
  21,631
  23,004
  24,434
  25,923
  27,475
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.524
  0.600
  0.650
  0.690
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  168
  178
  190
  201
  214
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  59
  73
  89
  107
  128
  150
  174
  200
  228
  258
  289
  323
  358
  395
  434
  474
  516
  560
  605
  653
  702
  753
  806
  861
  919
  979
  1,041
  1,105
  1,173
  1,243
Funds from operations, $m
  47
  66
  83
  102
  124
  147
  173
  202
  233
  266
  301
  338
  377
  419
  462
  507
  554
  604
  655
  708
  764
  822
  882
  944
  1,009
  1,076
  1,146
  1,219
  1,295
  1,374
  1,456
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  68
  85
  104
  125
  149
  176
  204
  235
  269
  304
  341
  381
  422
  466
  511
  559
  608
  660
  713
  769
  827
  887
  950
  1,015
  1,082
  1,153
  1,226
  1,302
  1,381
  1,464
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -47
  -59
  -73
  -89
  -107
  -128
  -150
  -174
  -200
  -228
  -258
  -289
  -323
  -358
  -395
  -434
  -474
  -516
  -560
  -605
  -653
  -702
  -753
  -806
  -861
  -919
  -979
  -1,041
  -1,105
  -1,173
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -246
  -285
  -325
  -365
  -406
  -447
  -487
  -527
  -565
  -603
  -640
  -676
  -711
  -746
  -780
  -815
  -849
  -884
  -920
  -957
  -994
  -1,033
  -1,074
  -1,116
  -1,160
  -1,207
  -1,255
  -1,307
  -1,361
  -1,418
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -170
  -293
  -344
  -398
  -454
  -513
  -575
  -637
  -701
  -765
  -831
  -898
  -965
  -1,034
  -1,104
  -1,175
  -1,249
  -1,323
  -1,400
  -1,480
  -1,562
  -1,647
  -1,735
  -1,827
  -1,922
  -2,021
  -2,126
  -2,234
  -2,348
  -2,466
  -2,591
Free cash flow, $m
  -123
  -226
  -259
  -294
  -329
  -364
  -399
  -432
  -465
  -497
  -527
  -556
  -584
  -612
  -638
  -664
  -690
  -715
  -741
  -766
  -793
  -820
  -848
  -877
  -907
  -939
  -973
  -1,008
  -1,045
  -1,085
  -1,126
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  125
  146
  166
  187
  208
  228
  249
  269
  289
  308
  327
  345
  363
  381
  399
  416
  434
  452
  470
  489
  508
  528
  549
  570
  593
  617
  641
  668
  695
  724
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  110
  137
  156
  177
  197
  217
  237
  256
  274
  292
  309
  325
  340
  354
  368
  382
  395
  408
  420
  433
  447
  460
  474
  488
  503
  519
  536
  554
  572
  592
  613
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  160
  262
  302
  343
  384
  425
  465
  505
  543
  581
  617
  652
  685
  717
  749
  781
  811
  842
  872
  903
  936
  968
  1,002
  1,037
  1,073
  1,112
  1,153
  1,195
  1,240
  1,287
  1,337
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  38
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  67
  73
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -182
  -144
  -166
  -189
  -213
  -237
  -261
  -284
  -307
  -330
  -352
  -373
  -394
  -415
  -435
  -455
  -475
  -495
  -516
  -537
  -558
  -580
  -603
  -626
  -651
  -677
  -704
  -732
  -762
  -794
  -827
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -102
  -124
  -141
  -159
  -176
  -194
  -211
  -229
  -245
  -262
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -324
  -339
  -354
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -449
  -466
  -484
  -504
  -524
  -545
  -567
  -591
  -616
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -96
  -107
  -113
  -116
  -117
  -116
  -113
  -108
  -101
  -93
  -85
  -76
  -66
  -57
  -48
  -40
  -33
  -26
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  86.0
  74.8
  65.9
  58.6
  52.6
  47.7
  43.5
  39.9
  36.9
  34.3
  32.0
  30.0
  28.3
  26.7
  25.4
  24.1
  23.0
  22.0
  21.1
  20.3
  19.5
  18.8
  18.1
  17.5
  16.9
  16.4
  15.9
  15.4
  14.9
  14.5

Easterly Government Properties, Inc. is an internally managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on the acquisition, development and management of Class A commercial properties that are leased to the United States Government agencies. The Company leases its properties to such agencies through the United States General Services Administration (GSA). The operations of the Company are carried on primarily through Easterly Government Properties, LP and the subsidiaries of the Operating Partnership. As of December 31, 2016, it had 43 operating properties in the United States, including 40 operating properties that are leased primarily to the United States Government tenant agencies and three operating properties that are entirely leased to private tenants, encompassing approximately 3.1 million square feet in the aggregate. In addition, the Company had one property under development encompassing approximately 0.1 million square feet as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Easterly Government Properties (DEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 236
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 47.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 52.4%
Total Debt to Equity 52.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Return On Equity 0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.4%
EBITDA Margin 57.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 411.8%
Operating Margin 12.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 376.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 1366.7%

DEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $105 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Easterly Government Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Easterly Government Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for DEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Easterly Government Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Easterly Government Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $15 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Easterly Government Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Easterly Government Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DEA are equal to 904.8%.

Life of production assets of 20.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Easterly Government Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DEA is equal to -4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $559 million for Easterly Government Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.935 million for Easterly Government Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Easterly Government Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-22-18 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ How To Profit From The New Fed Chair   [Jan-11-18 08:23AM  Forbes]
▶ Why REITs Are Set To Soar In 2018 (VNQ)   [Jan-09-18 06:08AM  ETF Daily News]
▶ Why REITs Will Soar in 2018 (and 5 to Buy Now)   [03:56AM  Harvest Exchange]
▶ The Top High-Yield Dividend Plays For 2018 (VYG)   [Nov-27-17 06:02AM  ETF Daily News]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-03-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties reports 2Q results   [Aug-08-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-03-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties reports 1Q results   [May-09-17 06:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-04-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-24-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Rudolph Technologies Inc (RTEC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-02-16 08:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of DEA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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