Intrinsic value of Easterly Government Properties - DEA

Previous Close

$19.79

  Intrinsic Value

$3.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$19.79

 
Intrinsic value

$3.96

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DEA.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  47.89
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  105
  131
  161
  196
  234
  276
  323
  373
  428
  486
  548
  613
  683
  755
  831
  911
  994
  1,081
  1,171
  1,264
  1,362
  1,463
  1,568
  1,677
  1,791
  1,909
  2,032
  2,160
  2,293
  2,432
  2,576
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  96
  118
  143
  172
  203
  237
  274
  313
  356
  402
  450
  500
  554
  609
  668
  729
  792
  858
  927
  998
  1,072
  1,149
  1,230
  1,313
  1,399
  1,489
  1,583
  1,681
  1,782
  1,888
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  111
  134
  159
  189
  220
  254
  292
  331
  375
  421
  470
  520
  575
  630
  690
  751
  815
  881
  951
  1,023
  1,097
  1,175
  1,256
  1,340
  1,427
  1,518
  1,612
  1,711
  1,813
  1,919
Operating income, $m
  13
  20
  27
  36
  46
  57
  69
  82
  96
  111
  127
  144
  162
  181
  201
  222
  243
  266
  289
  314
  339
  365
  393
  421
  451
  482
  514
  547
  582
  619
  656
EBITDA, $m
  60
  78
  100
  124
  151
  181
  213
  249
  287
  329
  372
  419
  468
  519
  573
  630
  688
  750
  814
  880
  949
  1,021
  1,095
  1,173
  1,253
  1,337
  1,424
  1,515
  1,609
  1,708
  1,810
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  10
  14
  19
  25
  31
  38
  45
  54
  62
  72
  82
  93
  104
  115
  128
  141
  154
  168
  183
  198
  214
  230
  247
  265
  283
  302
  322
  343
  364
  387
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  9
  13
  17
  21
  26
  31
  36
  42
  49
  55
  62
  70
  77
  85
  94
  102
  112
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  199
  212
  225
  239
  254
  270
Tax expense, $m
  0
  3
  3
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
Net income, $m
  3
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,045
  1,300
  1,598
  1,937
  2,317
  2,736
  3,196
  3,696
  4,234
  4,810
  5,424
  6,073
  6,758
  7,478
  8,232
  9,020
  9,842
  10,699
  11,591
  12,518
  13,483
  14,485
  15,526
  16,608
  17,733
  18,902
  20,119
  21,385
  22,703
  24,075
  25,506
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,040
  1,300
  1,598
  1,937
  2,317
  2,736
  3,196
  3,696
  4,234
  4,810
  5,424
  6,073
  6,758
  7,478
  8,232
  9,020
  9,842
  10,699
  11,591
  12,518
  13,483
  14,485
  15,526
  16,608
  17,733
  18,902
  20,119
  21,385
  22,703
  24,075
  25,506
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
Average production assets, $m
  950
  1,188
  1,461
  1,770
  2,117
  2,501
  2,921
  3,377
  3,869
  4,396
  4,956
  5,550
  6,176
  6,833
  7,522
  8,243
  8,994
  9,777
  10,592
  11,440
  12,321
  13,237
  14,188
  15,177
  16,205
  17,274
  18,385
  19,542
  20,747
  22,001
  23,308
Working capital, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
Total debt, $m
  293
  414
  553
  712
  889
  1,085
  1,300
  1,533
  1,784
  2,054
  2,340
  2,643
  2,963
  3,299
  3,651
  4,019
  4,403
  4,804
  5,220
  5,653
  6,103
  6,571
  7,058
  7,563
  8,088
  8,634
  9,202
  9,794
  10,409
  11,050
  11,718
Total liabilities, $m
  486
  607
  746
  905
  1,082
  1,278
  1,493
  1,726
  1,977
  2,247
  2,533
  2,836
  3,156
  3,492
  3,844
  4,212
  4,596
  4,997
  5,413
  5,846
  6,296
  6,764
  7,251
  7,756
  8,281
  8,827
  9,395
  9,987
  10,602
  11,243
  11,911
Total equity, $m
  559
  693
  852
  1,033
  1,235
  1,458
  1,704
  1,970
  2,257
  2,564
  2,891
  3,237
  3,602
  3,986
  4,387
  4,808
  5,246
  5,703
  6,178
  6,672
  7,186
  7,720
  8,275
  8,852
  9,451
  10,075
  10,723
  11,398
  12,100
  12,832
  13,595
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,045
  1,300
  1,598
  1,938
  2,317
  2,736
  3,197
  3,696
  4,234
  4,811
  5,424
  6,073
  6,758
  7,478
  8,231
  9,020
  9,842
  10,700
  11,591
  12,518
  13,482
  14,484
  15,526
  16,608
  17,732
  18,902
  20,118
  21,385
  22,702
  24,075
  25,506
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.524
  0.600
  0.650
  0.690
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  59
  72
  88
  105
  124
  145
  167
  192
  218
  245
  275
  306
  338
  372
  408
  445
  484
  524
  566
  610
  655
  702
  751
  802
  855
  910
  967
  1,027
  1,089
  1,154
Funds from operations, $m
  47
  66
  82
  100
  120
  143
  167
  194
  222
  253
  286
  320
  357
  395
  435
  476
  520
  565
  613
  662
  713
  766
  821
  879
  938
  1,000
  1,065
  1,132
  1,202
  1,275
  1,351
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  67
  83
  101
  122
  145
  169
  196
  225
  256
  289
  323
  360
  398
  438
  480
  524
  570
  617
  666
  718
  771
  826
  884
  944
  1,006
  1,071
  1,138
  1,208
  1,281
  1,358
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -47
  -59
  -72
  -88
  -105
  -124
  -145
  -167
  -192
  -218
  -245
  -275
  -306
  -338
  -372
  -408
  -445
  -484
  -524
  -566
  -610
  -655
  -702
  -751
  -802
  -855
  -910
  -967
  -1,027
  -1,089
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -238
  -273
  -310
  -347
  -384
  -420
  -457
  -492
  -527
  -560
  -593
  -626
  -658
  -689
  -720
  -752
  -783
  -815
  -848
  -881
  -916
  -952
  -989
  -1,028
  -1,069
  -1,112
  -1,157
  -1,204
  -1,254
  -1,307
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -170
  -285
  -332
  -382
  -435
  -489
  -544
  -602
  -659
  -719
  -778
  -838
  -901
  -964
  -1,027
  -1,092
  -1,160
  -1,228
  -1,299
  -1,372
  -1,447
  -1,526
  -1,607
  -1,691
  -1,779
  -1,871
  -1,967
  -2,067
  -2,171
  -2,281
  -2,396
Free cash flow, $m
  -123
  -218
  -249
  -280
  -312
  -344
  -375
  -405
  -434
  -462
  -489
  -516
  -541
  -565
  -589
  -612
  -636
  -659
  -682
  -706
  -730
  -755
  -780
  -807
  -835
  -865
  -896
  -929
  -964
  -1,000
  -1,039
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  121
  140
  158
  177
  196
  215
  233
  251
  269
  286
  303
  320
  336
  352
  368
  384
  400
  416
  433
  450
  468
  486
  505
  525
  546
  568
  591
  615
  641
  668
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  110
  132
  150
  168
  187
  205
  223
  240
  256
  272
  287
  301
  314
  327
  340
  352
  364
  375
  387
  399
  411
  423
  436
  449
  463
  478
  494
  510
  528
  546
  566
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  160
  253
  290
  326
  364
  401
  438
  473
  507
  541
  573
  604
  634
  663
  692
  720
  748
  775
  803
  832
  861
  891
  922
  954
  988
  1,024
  1,062
  1,101
  1,143
  1,187
  1,234
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  38
  35
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
  180
  187
  195
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -182
  -139
  -159
  -181
  -202
  -224
  -245
  -266
  -287
  -307
  -327
  -346
  -365
  -384
  -402
  -420
  -438
  -457
  -475
  -494
  -514
  -534
  -555
  -577
  -600
  -623
  -648
  -675
  -702
  -732
  -762
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -99
  -119
  -134
  -150
  -167
  -183
  -198
  -214
  -229
  -243
  -258
  -272
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -326
  -340
  -354
  -368
  -383
  -398
  -413
  -429
  -446
  -464
  -483
  -502
  -523
  -545
  -568
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -92
  -103
  -108
  -110
  -111
  -109
  -106
  -101
  -94
  -87
  -79
  -70
  -61
  -53
  -45
  -37
  -30
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  84.0
  71.6
  61.8
  54.0
  47.7
  42.5
  38.2
  34.6
  31.6
  29.0
  26.7
  24.8
  23.1
  21.7
  20.3
  19.2
  18.1
  17.2
  16.4
  15.6
  14.9
  14.3
  13.7
  13.1
  12.6
  12.1
  11.7
  11.3
  10.9
  10.5

Easterly Government Properties, Inc. focuses on the acquisition, development, and management of general services administration commercial properties in the United States. The company is based in Washington, District of Columbia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Easterly Government Properties (DEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 243.2
Price to Sales 6.9
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 47.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 52.4%
Total Debt to Equity 52.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Return On Equity 0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.4%
EBITDA Margin 57.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 411.8%
Operating Margin 12.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 376.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 1366.7%

DEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $105 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Easterly Government Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Easterly Government Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for DEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Easterly Government Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Easterly Government Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $15 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Easterly Government Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Easterly Government Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DEA are equal to 904.8%.

Life of production assets of 20.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Easterly Government Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DEA is equal to -4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $559 million for Easterly Government Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.306 million for Easterly Government Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Easterly Government Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
EQC Equity Commonw 30.44 12.23  str.sell
SIR Select Income 23.27 5.89  str.sell
GOV Government Pro 18.30 3.36  str.sell
NRE NorthStar Real 12.53 2.59  str.sell
BDN Brandywine Rea 16.80 2.70  str.sell
FSP Franklin Stree 9.95 2.29  str.sell
FPO First Potomac 11.12 1.92  str.sell
VNO Vornado Realty 75.30 12.17  str.sell
HIW Highwoods Prop 51.36 5.28  str.sell
LXP Lexington Real 9.84 1.49  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Easterly Government Properties reports 2Q results   [Aug-08-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-03-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties reports 1Q results   [May-09-17 06:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-04-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-24-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Rudolph Technologies Inc (RTEC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-02-16 08:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-04-16 09:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-04-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of DEA Financial statements of DEA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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