Intrinsic value of Easterly Government Properties - DEA

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$20.98

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  47.89
  35.00
  32.00
  29.30
  26.87
  24.68
  22.71
  20.94
  19.35
  17.91
  16.62
  15.46
  14.41
  13.47
  12.63
  11.86
  11.18
  10.56
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.65
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
Revenue, $m
  105
  96
  127
  164
  208
  259
  318
  384
  458
  540
  630
  728
  833
  945
  1,064
  1,190
  1,323
  1,463
  1,610
  1,763
  1,922
  2,088
  2,261
  2,441
  2,628
  2,822
  3,024
  3,234
  3,452
  3,679
  3,915
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  84
  110
  143
  181
  226
  277
  335
  400
  472
  550
  635
  727
  825
  929
  1,039
  1,155
  1,277
  1,405
  1,539
  1,678
  1,823
  1,974
  2,131
  2,294
  2,464
  2,640
  2,823
  3,014
  3,212
  3,418
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  89
  115
  148
  187
  232
  283
  341
  406
  478
  556
  642
  734
  832
  936
  1,046
  1,162
  1,285
  1,413
  1,547
  1,686
  1,831
  1,983
  2,140
  2,303
  2,473
  2,650
  2,833
  3,024
  3,222
  3,428
Operating income, $m
  13
  7
  11
  15
  21
  27
  35
  43
  52
  62
  74
  86
  99
  113
  128
  144
  161
  178
  197
  216
  236
  257
  279
  301
  325
  349
  375
  401
  428
  457
  487
EBITDA, $m
  60
  23
  32
  42
  55
  70
  87
  106
  128
  151
  178
  206
  236
  269
  303
  340
  379
  419
  462
  506
  553
  601
  651
  704
  758
  814
  873
  934
  997
  1,063
  1,132
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  8
  15
  23
  33
  44
  57
  73
  90
  110
  131
  155
  180
  208
  237
  269
  302
  337
  373
  412
  452
  494
  537
  583
  630
  679
  730
  783
  838
  895
  955
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  -1
  -4
  -7
  -12
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -47
  -58
  -69
  -81
  -95
  -109
  -125
  -141
  -159
  -177
  -196
  -216
  -237
  -259
  -281
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -382
  -409
  -438
  -468
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  3
  -1
  -4
  -7
  -12
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -47
  -58
  -69
  -81
  -95
  -109
  -125
  -141
  -159
  -177
  -196
  -216
  -237
  -259
  -281
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -382
  -409
  -438
  -468

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,045
  1,213
  1,602
  2,071
  2,627
  3,276
  4,020
  4,862
  5,802
  6,842
  7,979
  9,213
  10,541
  11,961
  13,471
  15,069
  16,753
  18,522
  20,375
  22,311
  24,331
  26,434
  28,624
  30,901
  33,267
  35,727
  38,283
  40,939
  43,700
  46,571
  49,558
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,040
  1,213
  1,602
  2,071
  2,627
  3,276
  4,020
  4,862
  5,802
  6,842
  7,979
  9,213
  10,541
  11,961
  13,471
  15,069
  16,753
  18,522
  20,375
  22,311
  24,331
  26,434
  28,624
  30,901
  33,267
  35,727
  38,283
  40,939
  43,700
  46,571
  49,558
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.101
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
  0.079
Average production assets, $m
  950
  79
  104
  135
  171
  213
  262
  316
  378
  445
  519
  600
  686
  779
  877
  981
  1,091
  1,206
  1,326
  1,452
  1,584
  1,721
  1,863
  2,012
  2,166
  2,326
  2,492
  2,665
  2,845
  3,032
  3,226
Working capital, $m
  0
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -43
  -52
  -61
  -71
  -82
  -94
  -107
  -120
  -135
  -150
  -165
  -182
  -199
  -217
  -236
  -256
  -276
  -297
  -319
  -342
  -365
  -390
  -416
  -442
Total debt, $m
  293
  421
  651
  929
  1,258
  1,642
  2,083
  2,581
  3,138
  3,753
  4,427
  5,157
  5,943
  6,784
  7,678
  8,624
  9,621
  10,668
  11,765
  12,911
  14,107
  15,352
  16,648
  17,996
  19,397
  20,853
  22,366
  23,939
  25,573
  27,273
  29,041
Total liabilities, $m
  486
  718
  948
  1,226
  1,555
  1,939
  2,380
  2,878
  3,435
  4,050
  4,724
  5,454
  6,240
  7,081
  7,975
  8,921
  9,918
  10,965
  12,062
  13,208
  14,404
  15,649
  16,945
  18,293
  19,694
  21,150
  22,663
  24,236
  25,870
  27,570
  29,338
Total equity, $m
  559
  495
  653
  845
  1,072
  1,336
  1,640
  1,984
  2,367
  2,791
  3,255
  3,759
  4,301
  4,880
  5,496
  6,148
  6,835
  7,557
  8,313
  9,103
  9,927
  10,785
  11,679
  12,608
  13,573
  14,577
  15,619
  16,703
  17,830
  19,001
  20,220
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,045
  1,213
  1,601
  2,071
  2,627
  3,275
  4,020
  4,862
  5,802
  6,841
  7,979
  9,213
  10,541
  11,961
  13,471
  15,069
  16,753
  18,522
  20,375
  22,311
  24,331
  26,434
  28,624
  30,901
  33,267
  35,727
  38,282
  40,939
  43,700
  46,571
  49,558
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.524
  0.850
  1.000
  1.100
  1.170
  1.230
  1.270
  1.300
  1.330
  1.340
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  -1
  -4
  -7
  -12
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -47
  -58
  -69
  -81
  -95
  -109
  -125
  -141
  -159
  -177
  -196
  -216
  -237
  -259
  -281
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -382
  -409
  -438
  -468
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  16
  21
  27
  34
  43
  52
  63
  76
  89
  104
  120
  137
  156
  175
  196
  218
  241
  265
  290
  317
  344
  373
  402
  433
  465
  498
  533
  569
  606
  645
Funds from operations, $m
  47
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  168
  177
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  76
  20
  24
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  73
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -27
  -34
  -43
  -52
  -63
  -76
  -89
  -104
  -120
  -137
  -156
  -175
  -196
  -218
  -241
  -265
  -290
  -317
  -344
  -373
  -402
  -433
  -465
  -498
  -533
  -569
  -606
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -170
  -32
  -41
  -52
  -63
  -76
  -91
  -107
  -124
  -144
  -163
  -184
  -206
  -229
  -254
  -279
  -306
  -333
  -362
  -391
  -421
  -454
  -487
  -521
  -556
  -593
  -631
  -671
  -713
  -756
  -800
Free cash flow, $m
  -123
  44
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -55
  -66
  -79
  -92
  -107
  -122
  -139
  -156
  -175
  -194
  -214
  -235
  -257
  -279
  -303
  -328
  -353
  -380
  -407
  -436
  -466
  -496
  -529
  -562
  -597
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  183
  230
  278
  329
  384
  440
  498
  557
  615
  673
  730
  786
  841
  894
  946
  997
  1,047
  1,097
  1,146
  1,196
  1,246
  1,296
  1,348
  1,401
  1,456
  1,513
  1,572
  1,635
  1,700
  1,768
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  8
  20
  34
  47
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  160
  183
  230
  278
  329
  384
  440
  498
  557
  615
  673
  730
  786
  841
  894
  946
  997
  1,047
  1,097
  1,146
  1,196
  1,246
  1,296
  1,348
  1,401
  1,456
  1,513
  1,580
  1,655
  1,734
  1,815
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  38
  227
  209
  250
  294
  339
  385
  432
  478
  523
  566
  608
  647
  685
  719
  752
  783
  812
  840
  867
  893
  918
  943
  968
  994
  1,020
  1,047
  1,076
  1,106
  1,138
  1,171
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -182
  -126
  -158
  -191
  -227
  -265
  -304
  -343
  -384
  -424
  -464
  -503
  -542
  -579
  -616
  -652
  -687
  -722
  -756
  -790
  -824
  -858
  -893
  -929
  -966
  -1,003
  -1,043
  -1,084
  -1,127
  -1,171
  -1,219
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  109
  51
  59
  67
  75
  82
  89
  94
  99
  102
  105
  106
  105
  103
  100
  96
  91
  84
  77
  69
  59
  50
  39
  28
  17
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  101
  44
  46
  48
  48
  47
  45
  42
  38
  34
  29
  25
  20
  16
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8
  99.7

Easterly Government Properties, Inc. focuses on the acquisition, development, and management of general services administration commercial properties in the United States. The company is based in Washington, District of Columbia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Easterly Government Properties (DEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 257.8
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 47.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 52.4%
Total Debt to Equity 52.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Return On Equity 0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.4%
EBITDA Margin 57.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 411.8%
Operating Margin 12.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 376.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 1366.7%

DEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $71 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Easterly Government Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Easterly Government Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for DEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Easterly Government Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Easterly Government Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Easterly Government Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Easterly Government Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DEA are equal to 82.4%.

Life of production assets of 1.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Easterly Government Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DEA is equal to -11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $377 million for Easterly Government Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.306 million for Easterly Government Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Easterly Government Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Easterly Government Properties reports 1Q results   [May-09-17 06:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-04-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-24-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Rudolph Technologies Inc (RTEC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-02-16 08:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-04-16 09:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-04-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Easterly Government Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-05-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of DEA Financial statements of DEA Annual reports of DEA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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