Intrinsic value of Deltic Timber - DEL

Previous Close

$98.45

  Intrinsic Value

$5.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$98.45

 
Intrinsic value

$5.22

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DEL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.89
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
Revenue, $m
  219
  251
  286
  323
  362
  404
  447
  493
  541
  591
  643
  697
  753
  812
  872
  935
  1,001
  1,069
  1,140
  1,214
  1,291
  1,371
  1,454
  1,541
  1,631
  1,726
  1,824
  1,927
  2,034
  2,146
  2,263
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  150
  171
  193
  217
  242
  268
  295
  323
  353
  384
  417
  450
  485
  522
  559
  599
  639
  682
  726
  772
  820
  870
  921
  975
  1,032
  1,091
  1,152
  1,216
  1,283
  1,353
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
Total operating expenses, $m
  198
  221
  243
  267
  293
  320
  348
  377
  407
  439
  472
  508
  543
  580
  619
  659
  701
  744
  790
  836
  885
  936
  989
  1,043
  1,100
  1,160
  1,222
  1,286
  1,354
  1,424
  1,498
Operating income, $m
  22
  30
  43
  56
  70
  84
  100
  116
  133
  151
  170
  190
  210
  231
  253
  276
  300
  325
  351
  378
  406
  435
  466
  498
  531
  566
  602
  640
  680
  722
  765
EBITDA, $m
  45
  57
  73
  90
  108
  127
  147
  168
  190
  213
  238
  263
  289
  316
  345
  374
  405
  437
  471
  505
  541
  579
  618
  660
  702
  747
  794
  843
  894
  947
  1,003
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  21
  31
  43
  54
  67
  80
  94
  109
  124
  141
  157
  175
  193
  212
  231
  252
  273
  295
  318
  343
  368
  394
  421
  450
  480
  511
  544
  578
  614
  651
Tax expense, $m
  4
  6
  8
  11
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  121
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
Net income, $m
  9
  15
  23
  31
  40
  49
  59
  69
  80
  91
  103
  115
  127
  141
  155
  169
  184
  199
  216
  232
  250
  268
  288
  308
  328
  350
  373
  397
  422
  448
  476

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  555
  630
  717
  810
  908
  1,012
  1,121
  1,236
  1,356
  1,480
  1,611
  1,746
  1,887
  2,034
  2,186
  2,345
  2,509
  2,680
  2,858
  3,043
  3,235
  3,436
  3,644
  3,862
  4,088
  4,325
  4,571
  4,829
  5,098
  5,379
  5,673
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  549
  630
  717
  810
  908
  1,012
  1,121
  1,236
  1,356
  1,480
  1,611
  1,746
  1,887
  2,034
  2,186
  2,345
  2,509
  2,680
  2,858
  3,043
  3,235
  3,436
  3,644
  3,862
  4,088
  4,325
  4,571
  4,829
  5,098
  5,379
  5,673
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.399
  0.398
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
Average production assets, $m
  456
  523
  595
  672
  754
  840
  931
  1,026
  1,125
  1,229
  1,337
  1,449
  1,566
  1,688
  1,814
  1,946
  2,082
  2,224
  2,372
  2,525
  2,685
  2,851
  3,024
  3,205
  3,393
  3,589
  3,794
  4,008
  4,231
  4,464
  4,708
Working capital, $m
  10
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
Total debt, $m
  241
  286
  334
  386
  440
  498
  558
  622
  688
  757
  829
  904
  983
  1,064
  1,148
  1,236
  1,327
  1,422
  1,520
  1,623
  1,729
  1,840
  1,956
  2,076
  2,202
  2,333
  2,470
  2,612
  2,761
  2,917
  3,080
Total liabilities, $m
  304
  349
  397
  449
  503
  561
  621
  685
  751
  820
  892
  967
  1,046
  1,127
  1,211
  1,299
  1,390
  1,485
  1,583
  1,686
  1,792
  1,903
  2,019
  2,139
  2,265
  2,396
  2,533
  2,675
  2,824
  2,980
  3,143
Total equity, $m
  251
  281
  320
  361
  405
  451
  500
  551
  605
  660
  718
  779
  842
  907
  975
  1,046
  1,119
  1,195
  1,275
  1,357
  1,443
  1,532
  1,625
  1,722
  1,823
  1,929
  2,039
  2,154
  2,274
  2,399
  2,530
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  555
  630
  717
  810
  908
  1,012
  1,121
  1,236
  1,356
  1,480
  1,610
  1,746
  1,888
  2,034
  2,186
  2,345
  2,509
  2,680
  2,858
  3,043
  3,235
  3,435
  3,644
  3,861
  4,088
  4,325
  4,572
  4,829
  5,098
  5,379
  5,673
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.960
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  15
  23
  31
  40
  49
  59
  69
  80
  91
  103
  115
  127
  141
  155
  169
  184
  199
  216
  232
  250
  268
  288
  308
  328
  350
  373
  397
  422
  448
  476
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  192
  202
  214
  225
  238
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  42
  53
  65
  78
  91
  106
  121
  136
  153
  170
  188
  207
  226
  246
  267
  289
  312
  335
  360
  386
  412
  440
  469
  500
  532
  565
  599
  636
  674
  713
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  44
  41
  52
  64
  77
  91
  105
  120
  136
  152
  169
  187
  206
  225
  245
  266
  288
  311
  334
  359
  384
  411
  439
  468
  498
  530
  563
  598
  634
  672
  711
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -192
  -202
  -214
  -225
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -244
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -41
  -90
  -98
  -107
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -170
  -181
  -190
  -201
  -211
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -367
  -386
  -406
  -425
  -447
  -469
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  -49
  -46
  -43
  -38
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -16
  -9
  -1
  7
  15
  24
  33
  43
  53
  63
  74
  85
  97
  109
  122
  135
  148
  162
  177
  192
  208
  225
  242
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  102
  107
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  21
  16
  10
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  66
  64
  61
  58
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  102
  107
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  16
  18
  19
  20
  24
  32
  41
  51
  61
  71
  82
  93
  105
  118
  131
  144
  158
  173
  188
  204
  220
  237
  255
  274
  293
  314
  335
  357
  380
  405
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -14
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -22
  -16
  -10
  -3
  5
  13
  22
  31
  40
  50
  60
  71
  82
  93
  105
  118
  131
  144
  158
  173
  188
  204
  220
  237
  255
  274
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -13
  -18
  -17
  -17
  -14
  -9
  -5
  -1
  2
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.2
  97.1
  96.4
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2

Deltic Timber Corporation is a vertically integrated natural resources company. The Company is engaged in the growing and harvesting of timber and the manufacturing and marketing of lumber and medium density fiberboard (MDF). It operates through four segments: Woodlands, which manages all aspects of the Company's timberlands; Manufacturing, which consists of its approximately two sawmills that manufacture a range of softwood lumber products and the Del-Tin Fiber plant that produces MDF; Real Estate, which includes the Company's four real estate developments and a related country club operation, and Corporate. It is also engaged in real estate development in central Arkansas. As of December 31, 2016, it developed and operated its own seed orchard. Its sawmills are located at Ola in central Arkansas and at Waldo in south Arkansas. It is engaged in developing the Chenal Valley, which is an upscale planned community, with approximately 4,300 acres of residential and commercial properties.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Deltic Timber (DEL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 133.3
Price to Sales 5.5
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 240
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 39.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 96%
Total Debt to Equity 96%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 3.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
EBITDA Margin 20.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 30.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Payout Ratio 55.6%

DEL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DEL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $219 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Deltic Timber. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Deltic Timber. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DEL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for DEL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Deltic Timber, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Deltic Timber.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DEL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 59.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $69 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DEL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Deltic Timber.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Deltic Timber. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DEL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DEL are equal to 208%.

Life of production assets of 19.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Deltic Timber operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DEL is equal to 1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $251 million for Deltic Timber - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.015 million for Deltic Timber is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Deltic Timber at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Deltic posts 4Q profit   [Feb-14-18 07:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Deltic Timber Rallies Strongly   [Jan-25-18 10:32AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ [$$] Potlatch to Combine With Deltic Timber in Stock Swap   [12:13AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Deltic posts 3Q profit   [05:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Potlatch to Combine With Deltic Timber in Stock Swap   [01:28PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Potlatch Nears Deal to Combine With Deltic Timber in Stock Swap   [Oct-22-17 07:36PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Deltic Schedules Third Quarter Conference Call   [Oct-10-17 10:02AM  Business Wire]
▶ Deltic Timber Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-05-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ 5 Stocks That Look Good Short   [Aug-27-17 10:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Deltic Timber Showing Weak Roots   [Aug-22-17 05:19PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Deltic Timber Showing Weak Roots   [03:19PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Deltic posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 03:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Deltic Announces Preliminary Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 05:51PM  Business Wire]
▶ Deltic Schedules Second Quarter Conference Call   [Jul-11-17 09:56AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Deltic Timber Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Deltic Timber Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-15-17 04:39PM  Business Wire]
▶ Deltic posts 1Q profit   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Deltic Announces Preliminary First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-03-17 05:16PM  Business Wire]
▶ Deltic Schedules First Quarter Conference Call   [Apr-17-17 06:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Deltic posts 4Q profit   [06:45AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of DEL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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