Intrinsic value of Denny's - DENN

Previous Close

$12.93

  Intrinsic Value

$2.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

  Value-price divergence*

-27%

Previous close

$12.93

 
Intrinsic value

$2.34

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-27%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DENN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.26
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
Revenue, $m
  507
  544
  582
  622
  664
  707
  752
  799
  848
  899
  951
  1,007
  1,064
  1,124
  1,187
  1,253
  1,321
  1,393
  1,468
  1,547
  1,629
  1,715
  1,805
  1,899
  1,998
  2,101
  2,210
  2,324
  2,443
  2,568
  2,699
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  474
  507
  542
  578
  615
  654
  695
  737
  781
  827
  871
  921
  973
  1,027
  1,084
  1,143
  1,205
  1,270
  1,338
  1,409
  1,483
  1,561
  1,643
  1,728
  1,818
  1,912
  2,010
  2,113
  2,222
  2,335
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  459
  474
  507
  542
  578
  615
  654
  695
  737
  781
  827
  871
  921
  973
  1,027
  1,084
  1,143
  1,205
  1,270
  1,338
  1,409
  1,483
  1,561
  1,643
  1,728
  1,818
  1,912
  2,010
  2,113
  2,222
  2,335
Operating income, $m
  48
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  270
  283
  298
  313
  330
  346
  364
EBITDA, $m
  70
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  203
  215
  226
  239
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
  360
  379
  398
  418
  440
  462
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  9
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  61
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  113
  122
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  168
  176
  186
  195
  205
  216
  227
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
  320
Tax expense, $m
  17
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
Net income, $m
  19
  45
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  306
  325
  348
  372
  397
  423
  450
  478
  507
  537
  569
  602
  636
  672
  710
  749
  790
  833
  877
  924
  973
  1,025
  1,079
  1,135
  1,194
  1,256
  1,321
  1,389
  1,460
  1,535
  1,613
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  303
  325
  348
  372
  397
  423
  450
  478
  507
  537
  569
  602
  636
  672
  710
  749
  790
  833
  877
  924
  973
  1,025
  1,079
  1,135
  1,194
  1,256
  1,321
  1,389
  1,460
  1,535
  1,613
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.673
  1.674
  1.672
  1.672
  1.673
  1.671
  1.671
  1.672
  1.673
  1.674
  1.671
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.672
  1.673
  1.672
  1.672
  1.674
  1.674
  1.674
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
Average production assets, $m
  179
  192
  206
  220
  234
  250
  266
  282
  299
  317
  336
  355
  376
  397
  419
  442
  466
  492
  518
  546
  575
  605
  637
  670
  705
  742
  780
  820
  862
  907
  953
Working capital, $m
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -248
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -302
Total debt, $m
  246
  162
  182
  204
  226
  249
  274
  299
  325
  352
  381
  411
  442
  474
  508
  543
  580
  618
  659
  701
  745
  791
  840
  891
  944
  999
  1,058
  1,119
  1,183
  1,251
  1,321
Total liabilities, $m
  377
  293
  313
  335
  357
  380
  405
  430
  456
  483
  512
  542
  573
  605
  639
  674
  711
  749
  790
  832
  876
  922
  971
  1,022
  1,075
  1,130
  1,189
  1,250
  1,314
  1,382
  1,452
Total equity, $m
  -71
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  161
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  306
  326
  348
  372
  397
  422
  450
  478
  507
  537
  569
  602
  637
  672
  710
  749
  790
  832
  878
  924
  973
  1,024
  1,079
  1,136
  1,194
  1,256
  1,321
  1,389
  1,460
  1,536
  1,613
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -3.465
  4.970
  5.240
  5.480
  5.700
  5.900
  6.090
  6.260
  6.410
  6.560
  6.700
  6.820
  6.940
  7.050
  7.150
  7.250
  7.340
  7.430
  7.510
  7.580
  7.650
  7.720
  7.790
  7.850
  7.900
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
  8.100
  8.150
  8.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.244
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  45
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
  93
  98
Funds from operations, $m
  56
  68
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
  259
  273
  286
  301
  316
  332
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  72
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
  347
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -93
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -139
Free cash flow, $m
  38
  41
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  -81
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -51
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -38
  -22
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  18
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  178
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  240
  252
  264
  278
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  10
  -104
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -85
  65
  69
  72
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
Discount rate, %
 
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.84
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.47
  21.50
  22.57
  23.70
  24.88
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.76
  33.35
  35.02
  36.77
  38.60
  40.53
  42.56
  44.69
  46.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -77
  52
  48
  44
  40
  36
  32
  27
  23
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Denny's Corporation (Denny's) operates a franchised full-service restaurant chain. The Company, through its subsidiary, Denny's, Inc., owns and operates the Denny's brand. As of December 28, 2016, the Denny's brand consisted of 1,733 franchised, licensed and Company-operated restaurants around the world, including 1,610 restaurants in the United States and 123 international locations. As of December 28, 2016, 1,564 of its restaurants were franchised or licensed and 169 were Company-operated. In addition to its breakfast-all-day items, Denny's offers a selection of lunch and dinner items, including burgers, sandwiches, salads and skillet entrees, along with an assortment of beverages, appetizers and desserts. The Company's Fit Fare menu helps its guests identify items suited to their dietary needs. Most Denny's restaurants offer special items for children and seniors. The Company has restaurant locations within travel centers, primarily with Pilot and Pilot Flying J Travel Centers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Denny's (DENN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.6
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book -13
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -342.3%
Total Debt to Equity -346.5%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Return On Equity -28.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 169.7%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Operating Margin 9.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 47.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

DENN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DENN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $507 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Denny's. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Denny's. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DENN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.4%, whose default value for DENN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Denny's, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Denny's.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DENN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DENN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Denny's.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Denny's. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DENN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DENN are equal to 35.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Denny's operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DENN is equal to -11.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-71 million for Denny's - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.889 million for Denny's is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Denny's at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : October 10, 2017   [Oct-10-17 11:18AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Which Chains Have Eclipse Deals and Promotions?   [Aug-20-17 11:06AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : August 17, 2017   [Aug-17-17 03:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Denny's posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 11:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Denny's just schooled IHOP with the ultimate Twitter comeback   [Jul-13-17 01:03PM  Business Insider]
▶ Dennys Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:DENN) : July 5, 2017   [Jul-05-17 01:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why GrubHub Inc (GRUB) Stock Is a No-Go Right Now   [Jun-29-17 11:28AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Dennys Names Michael Furlow CIO   [May-23-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Denny's posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 07:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Steaks Are High: Netflix Hits 100 Million   [Apr-22-17 03:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Denny's Closes 2016 Strong, Predicts a Decent 2017   [Feb-17-17 01:03PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Why NetEase, Denny's, and TiVo Jumped Today   [Feb-16-17 04:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why NetEase, Denny's, and TiVo Jumped Today   [04:40PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Shares of Denny's Corp. Are Soaring Today   [12:41PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Denny's posts 4Q profit   [05:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid Dennys Corporation (DENN)?   [03:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of DENN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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