Intrinsic value of Denny's - DENN

Previous Close

$15.89

  Intrinsic Value

$1.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$15.89

 
Intrinsic value

$1.08

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DENN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.26
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  507
  552
  577
  603
  630
  660
  690
  722
  756
  792
  830
  870
  912
  956
  1,002
  1,051
  1,102
  1,156
  1,213
  1,272
  1,335
  1,401
  1,470
  1,542
  1,619
  1,699
  1,783
  1,871
  1,964
  2,062
  2,164
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  500
  522
  546
  570
  596
  623
  652
  682
  714
  748
  773
  811
  850
  891
  934
  980
  1,028
  1,078
  1,131
  1,187
  1,245
  1,307
  1,371
  1,439
  1,510
  1,585
  1,664
  1,746
  1,833
  1,924
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  459
  500
  522
  546
  570
  596
  623
  652
  682
  714
  748
  773
  811
  850
  891
  934
  980
  1,028
  1,078
  1,131
  1,187
  1,245
  1,307
  1,371
  1,439
  1,510
  1,585
  1,664
  1,746
  1,833
  1,924
Operating income, $m
  48
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  83
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  188
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
EBITDA, $m
  70
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
  303
  318
  334
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  17
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  35
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
Tax expense, $m
  17
  9
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Net income, $m
  19
  26
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  306
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  613
  643
  674
  707
  742
  779
  817
  857
  899
  944
  991
  1,040
  1,091
  1,145
  1,202
  1,262
  1,325
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  303
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  613
  643
  674
  707
  742
  779
  817
  857
  899
  944
  991
  1,040
  1,091
  1,145
  1,202
  1,262
  1,325
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.673
  1.633
  1.635
  1.634
  1.632
  1.634
  1.635
  1.633
  1.633
  1.633
  1.634
  1.635
  1.634
  1.634
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.633
  1.634
  1.635
  1.635
  1.633
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.633
Average production assets, $m
  179
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  343
  359
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
  501
  525
  551
  578
  606
  636
  668
  701
  736
  772
  810
  851
  893
  937
Working capital, $m
  -57
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
Total debt, $m
  246
  173
  186
  201
  216
  232
  249
  266
  285
  305
  326
  348
  371
  395
  420
  447
  475
  505
  536
  569
  604
  640
  678
  718
  760
  804
  850
  899
  950
  1,004
  1,061
Total liabilities, $m
  377
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
  552
  579
  607
  637
  668
  701
  735
  771
  809
  849
  891
  936
  982
  1,031
  1,082
  1,136
  1,192
Total equity, $m
  -71
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  306
  338
  353
  369
  386
  403
  422
  442
  463
  484
  508
  532
  558
  584
  613
  643
  674
  708
  742
  779
  817
  857
  899
  943
  990
  1,040
  1,091
  1,146
  1,202
  1,262
  1,324
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -3.465
  5.110
  5.270
  5.430
  5.590
  5.740
  5.890
  6.020
  6.160
  6.290
  6.410
  6.530
  6.640
  6.750
  6.850
  6.950
  7.050
  7.140
  7.230
  7.310
  7.390
  7.470
  7.540
  7.610
  7.670
  7.730
  7.790
  7.850
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.244
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  26
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  38
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
Funds from operations, $m
  56
  59
  67
  70
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  60
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  97
  101
  106
  110
  116
  121
  127
  132
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
Free cash flow, $m
  38
  27
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  -117
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -51
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -38
  -12
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  16
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  10
  -131
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -115
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
Discount rate, %
 
  11.70
  12.29
  12.90
  13.54
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.04
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.73
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -103
  36
  33
  30
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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Denny's Corporation (Denny's) operates a franchised full-service restaurant chain. The Company, through its subsidiary, Denny's, Inc., owns and operates the Denny's brand. As of December 28, 2016, the Denny's brand consisted of 1,733 franchised, licensed and Company-operated restaurants around the world, including 1,610 restaurants in the United States and 123 international locations. As of December 28, 2016, 1,564 of its restaurants were franchised or licensed and 169 were Company-operated. In addition to its breakfast-all-day items, Denny's offers a selection of lunch and dinner items, including burgers, sandwiches, salads and skillet entrees, along with an assortment of beverages, appetizers and desserts. The Company's Fit Fare menu helps its guests identify items suited to their dietary needs. Most Denny's restaurants offer special items for children and seniors. The Company has restaurant locations within travel centers, primarily with Pilot and Pilot Flying J Travel Centers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Denny's (DENN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 59.7
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book -16
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -342.3%
Total Debt to Equity -346.5%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Return On Equity -28.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 169.7%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Operating Margin 9.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 47.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

DENN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DENN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $529 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Denny's. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Denny's. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DENN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.7%, whose default value for DENN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Denny's, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Denny's.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DENN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DENN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Denny's.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Denny's. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DENN stock is equal to 1.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DENN are equal to 43.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Denny's operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DENN is equal to -5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-97 million for Denny's - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68 million for Denny's is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Denny's at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Buy Dennys Corporation (NASDAQ:DENN)?   [Jun-12-18 12:44PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Restaurant Stocks Delivering the Gains   [02:25PM  Investopedia]
▶ Denny's: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexa, Order Me Pancakes at Denny's   [Mar-14-18 09:35PM  Bloomberg]
▶ Denny's posts 4Q profit   [06:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Denny's Earnings Preview   [11:25AM  Benzinga]
▶ Denny's: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [Jan-12-18 06:43AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Cramer Remix: Why Boeing is a better bet than bitcoin   [Jan-11-18 07:04PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ When Should You Buy Dennys Corporation (NASDAQ:DENN)?   [Dec-19-17 09:55AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : December 15, 2017   [Dec-15-17 01:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 01:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Dennys Opens First Restaurant in Guatemala   [Nov-20-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : November 7, 2017   [Nov-07-17 10:07AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Denny's posts 3Q profit   [Nov-01-17 06:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : October 26, 2017   [Oct-26-17 10:27AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Dennys Announces Expansion Into United Kingdom   [Oct-19-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : October 10, 2017   [Oct-10-17 11:18AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Which Chains Have Eclipse Deals and Promotions?   [Aug-20-17 11:06AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : August 17, 2017   [Aug-17-17 03:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Denny's posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 11:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Denny's just schooled IHOP with the ultimate Twitter comeback   [Jul-13-17 01:03PM  Business Insider]
▶ Dennys Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:DENN) : July 5, 2017   [Jul-05-17 01:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why GrubHub Inc (GRUB) Stock Is a No-Go Right Now   [Jun-29-17 11:28AM  InvestorPlace]
Financial statements of DENN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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