Intrinsic value of DepoMed - DEPO

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$11.57

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$11.57

 
Intrinsic value

$9.91

 
Up/down potential

-14%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DEPO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.94
  11.70
  11.03
  10.43
  9.88
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  456
  509
  566
  625
  686
  751
  818
  888
  961
  1,037
  1,115
  1,197
  1,282
  1,371
  1,462
  1,558
  1,657
  1,761
  1,868
  1,981
  2,098
  2,220
  2,347
  2,480
  2,618
  2,763
  2,915
  3,073
  3,239
  3,412
  3,593
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  171
  190
  210
  231
  252
  275
  298
  323
  348
  375
  402
  431
  460
  491
  523
  557
  592
  628
  666
  705
  746
  789
  833
  880
  928
  979
  1,033
  1,088
  1,146
  1,207
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  292
  299
  307
  315
  322
  331
  339
  347
  356
  365
  374
  383
  393
  403
  413
  423
  434
  445
  456
  467
  479
  491
  503
  515
  528
  542
  555
  569
  583
  598
Total operating expenses, $m
  431
  463
  489
  517
  546
  574
  606
  637
  670
  704
  740
  776
  814
  853
  894
  936
  980
  1,026
  1,073
  1,122
  1,172
  1,225
  1,280
  1,336
  1,395
  1,456
  1,521
  1,588
  1,657
  1,729
  1,805
Operating income, $m
  25
  46
  76
  108
  141
  176
  213
  251
  291
  332
  376
  421
  468
  517
  568
  622
  677
  735
  796
  860
  926
  995
  1,068
  1,144
  1,223
  1,306
  1,394
  1,485
  1,582
  1,682
  1,788
EBITDA, $m
  134
  168
  211
  257
  305
  356
  408
  463
  520
  580
  642
  707
  775
  845
  918
  994
  1,074
  1,156
  1,243
  1,333
  1,427
  1,526
  1,629
  1,736
  1,849
  1,967
  2,091
  2,220
  2,356
  2,498
  2,647
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  67
  74
  85
  96
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  175
  190
  205
  222
  238
  256
  274
  293
  313
  333
  354
  377
  400
  424
  449
  476
  503
  532
  562
  594
  627
Earnings before tax, $m
  -65
  -21
  2
  23
  45
  68
  92
  118
  144
  172
  201
  231
  263
  296
  330
  366
  403
  443
  484
  526
  571
  618
  668
  719
  774
  831
  890
  953
  1,019
  1,088
  1,161
Tax expense, $m
  24
  0
  0
  6
  12
  18
  25
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  89
  99
  109
  119
  131
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  257
  275
  294
  314
Net income, $m
  -89
  -21
  1
  17
  33
  50
  67
  86
  105
  126
  147
  169
  192
  216
  241
  267
  294
  323
  353
  384
  417
  451
  487
  525
  565
  606
  650
  696
  744
  795
  848

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  177
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,225
  1,171
  1,300
  1,436
  1,578
  1,726
  1,880
  2,041
  2,209
  2,383
  2,564
  2,752
  2,947
  3,151
  3,362
  3,581
  3,810
  4,048
  4,295
  4,553
  4,822
  5,103
  5,395
  5,700
  6,019
  6,352
  6,701
  7,065
  7,445
  7,844
  8,261
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,048
  1,171
  1,300
  1,436
  1,578
  1,726
  1,880
  2,041
  2,209
  2,383
  2,564
  2,752
  2,947
  3,151
  3,362
  3,581
  3,810
  4,048
  4,295
  4,553
  4,822
  5,103
  5,395
  5,700
  6,019
  6,352
  6,701
  7,065
  7,445
  7,844
  8,261
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
Average production assets, $m
  971
  1,084
  1,203
  1,329
  1,460
  1,598
  1,741
  1,890
  2,045
  2,206
  2,373
  2,547
  2,728
  2,916
  3,112
  3,315
  3,527
  3,747
  3,976
  4,215
  4,464
  4,723
  4,994
  5,277
  5,572
  5,880
  6,203
  6,540
  6,892
  7,261
  7,647
Working capital, $m
  79
  -110
  -122
  -134
  -148
  -161
  -176
  -191
  -207
  -223
  -240
  -257
  -276
  -295
  -314
  -335
  -356
  -379
  -402
  -426
  -451
  -477
  -505
  -533
  -563
  -594
  -627
  -661
  -696
  -734
  -773
Total debt, $m
  729
  809
  925
  1,047
  1,175
  1,308
  1,447
  1,592
  1,743
  1,900
  2,063
  2,232
  2,408
  2,591
  2,781
  2,978
  3,184
  3,398
  3,621
  3,853
  4,095
  4,347
  4,611
  4,885
  5,172
  5,472
  5,786
  6,113
  6,456
  6,814
  7,190
Total liabilities, $m
  975
  1,054
  1,170
  1,292
  1,420
  1,553
  1,692
  1,837
  1,988
  2,145
  2,308
  2,477
  2,653
  2,836
  3,026
  3,223
  3,429
  3,643
  3,866
  4,098
  4,340
  4,592
  4,856
  5,130
  5,417
  5,717
  6,031
  6,358
  6,701
  7,059
  7,435
Total equity, $m
  251
  117
  130
  144
  158
  173
  188
  204
  221
  238
  256
  275
  295
  315
  336
  358
  381
  405
  430
  455
  482
  510
  540
  570
  602
  635
  670
  706
  745
  784
  826
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,226
  1,171
  1,300
  1,436
  1,578
  1,726
  1,880
  2,041
  2,209
  2,383
  2,564
  2,752
  2,948
  3,151
  3,362
  3,581
  3,810
  4,048
  4,296
  4,553
  4,822
  5,102
  5,396
  5,700
  6,019
  6,352
  6,701
  7,064
  7,446
  7,843
  8,261
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.904
  6.910
  7.120
  7.290
  7.450
  7.580
  7.700
  7.800
  7.890
  7.970
  8.040
  8.110
  8.170
  8.220
  8.270
  8.320
  8.360
  8.390
  8.430
  8.460
  8.490
  8.520
  8.550
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.071
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -89
  -21
  1
  17
  33
  50
  67
  86
  105
  126
  147
  169
  192
  216
  241
  267
  294
  323
  353
  384
  417
  451
  487
  525
  565
  606
  650
  696
  744
  795
  848
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  109
  122
  135
  149
  164
  179
  196
  212
  230
  248
  267
  286
  307
  328
  350
  373
  396
  421
  447
  474
  502
  531
  561
  593
  626
  661
  697
  735
  774
  816
  859
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  101
  136
  166
  197
  229
  263
  298
  335
  373
  413
  455
  498
  544
  591
  640
  691
  744
  800
  858
  919
  982
  1,049
  1,118
  1,191
  1,267
  1,347
  1,431
  1,518
  1,610
  1,707
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
Cash from operations, $m
  66
  60
  149
  179
  210
  243
  277
  313
  351
  390
  430
  473
  517
  563
  610
  660
  712
  766
  823
  882
  944
  1,008
  1,076
  1,147
  1,221
  1,298
  1,379
  1,465
  1,554
  1,648
  1,746
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -109
  -122
  -135
  -149
  -164
  -179
  -196
  -212
  -230
  -248
  -267
  -286
  -307
  -328
  -350
  -373
  -396
  -421
  -447
  -474
  -502
  -531
  -561
  -593
  -626
  -661
  -697
  -735
  -774
  -816
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -113
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -369
  -386
Cash from investing activities, $m
  46
  -222
  -242
  -260
  -280
  -301
  -322
  -345
  -367
  -391
  -416
  -441
  -467
  -495
  -523
  -553
  -584
  -616
  -650
  -686
  -723
  -762
  -802
  -844
  -888
  -934
  -983
  -1,034
  -1,087
  -1,143
  -1,202
Free cash flow, $m
  112
  -163
  -93
  -82
  -71
  -58
  -45
  -31
  -17
  -1
  15
  32
  49
  68
  87
  107
  128
  150
  173
  196
  221
  247
  274
  303
  333
  364
  396
  431
  467
  504
  544
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -100
  80
  116
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  313
  328
  343
  359
  375
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -94
  80
  116
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  313
  328
  343
  359
  375
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  -83
  23
  40
  57
  75
  94
  114
  134
  155
  178
  201
  225
  251
  277
  305
  334
  364
  396
  429
  463
  500
  538
  578
  620
  664
  710
  758
  809
  863
  919
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -43
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  177
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  51
  11
  26
  43
  60
  78
  97
  117
  138
  160
  182
  206
  230
  256
  283
  311
  340
  371
  403
  436
  472
  508
  547
  588
  630
  675
  722
  771
  823
  878
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  47
  9
  20
  29
  36
  41
  44
  45
  45
  43
  40
  37
  33
  29
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Depomed, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development, sale, and licensing of products for pain and other central nervous system conditions in the United States. It offers Gralise (gabapentin), an once-daily product for the management of postherpetic neuralgia; CAMBIA (diclofenac potassium for oral solution), a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug indicated for acute treatment of migraine attacks in adults; Zipsor (diclofenac potassium) liquid filled capsule, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug for the treatment of mild to moderate acute pain in adults; and Lazanda (fentanyl) nasal spray, an intranasal fentanyl drug used to manage breakthrough pain in adults. The company also provides NUCYNTA ER (tapentadol extended release tablets), a product for the management of pain severe enough to long term opioid treatment, including neuropathic pain associated with diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in adults; and NUCYNTA (tapentadol), a product for the management of moderate to severe acute pain in adults. In addition, it is involved in the clinical development of Cebranopadol for the treatment of chronic nociceptive and neuropathic pain. The company sells its products to wholesalers and retail pharmacies. It also has a portfolio of license agreements based on its proprietary Acuform gastroretentive drug delivery technology with Mallinckrodt Inc.; Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; and Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Newark, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DepoMed (DEPO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -8.1
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 32.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 290.4%
Total Debt to Equity 290.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital -8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Equity -31.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.7%
EBITDA Margin 25.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Net Profit Margin -19.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Effective Tax Rate -36.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

DEPO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DEPO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $456 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DepoMed. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DepoMed. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DEPO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for DEPO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DepoMed, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DepoMed.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DEPO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $285 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DEPO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.2% for DepoMed.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DepoMed. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DEPO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DEPO are equal to 212.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DepoMed operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DEPO is equal to -21.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $251 million for DepoMed - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.792 million for DepoMed is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DepoMed at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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Stock chart of DEPO Financial statements of DEPO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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