Depomed, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development, sale, and licensing of products for pain and other central nervous system conditions in the United States. It offers Gralise (gabapentin), an once-daily product for the management of postherpetic neuralgia; CAMBIA (diclofenac potassium for oral solution), a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug indicated for acute treatment of migraine attacks in adults; Zipsor (diclofenac potassium) liquid filled capsule, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug for the treatment of mild to moderate acute pain in adults; and Lazanda (fentanyl) nasal spray, an intranasal fentanyl drug used to manage breakthrough pain in adults. The company also provides NUCYNTA ER (tapentadol extended release tablets), a product for the management of pain severe enough to long term opioid treatment, including neuropathic pain associated with diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in adults; and NUCYNTA (tapentadol), a product for the management of moderate to severe acute pain in adults. In addition, it is involved in the clinical development of Cebranopadol for the treatment of chronic nociceptive and neuropathic pain. The company sells its products to wholesalers and retail pharmacies. It also has a portfolio of license agreements based on its proprietary Acuform gastroretentive drug delivery technology with Mallinckrodt Inc.; Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; and Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Newark, California.
FINANCIAL RATIOS of DepoMed (DEPO)
|Price to Sales||1.6|
|Price to Book||2.9|
|Price to Tangible Book|
|Price to Cash Flow||10.9|
|Price to Free Cash Flow||11.4|
|Sales Growth Rate||32.9%|
|Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate||%|
|EPS Growth Rate||%|
|EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate||%|
|Capital Spending Gr. Rate||50%|
|Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate||8.4%|
|LT Debt to Equity||290.4%|
|Total Debt to Equity||290.4%|
|Return On Assets||0.6%|
|Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg.||5.8%|
|Return On Total Capital||-8.4%|
|Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg.||5.9%|
|Return On Equity||-31.4%|
|Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg.||-0.4%|
|Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||85.7%|
|EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||27.9%|
|Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||17.1%|
|Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||1.5%|
|Net Profit Margin||-19.5%|
|Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||-2.6%|
|Effective Tax Rate||-36.9%|
|Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg.||13.1%|
DEPO stock valuation input parameters
Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DEPO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $456 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DepoMed. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DepoMed. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.
Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DEPO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.
Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for DEPO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DepoMed, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DepoMed.
By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.
Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DEPO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.6%.
Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $285 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DEPO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.
Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.2% for DepoMed.
Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DepoMed. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.
Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DEPO stock is equal to 0%.
Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DEPO are equal to 212.8%.
Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DepoMed operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.
Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DEPO is equal to -21.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.
Book value of equity - $251 million for DepoMed - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.
Shares outstanding of 60.792 million for DepoMed is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.
Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DepoMed at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.
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