Intrinsic value of Del Frisco's Restaurant Group - DFRG

Previous Close

$15.25

  Intrinsic Value

$10.49

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  Rating & Target

sell

-31%

Previous close

$15.25

 
Intrinsic value

$10.49

 
Up/down potential

-31%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DFRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.02
  2.80
  3.02
  3.22
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  352
  362
  373
  385
  398
  412
  427
  444
  461
  480
  500
  521
  543
  567
  592
  619
  647
  677
  708
  741
  776
  813
  851
  892
  935
  980
  1,028
  1,078
  1,130
  1,185
  1,243
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  326
  335
  346
  357
  370
  383
  398
  413
  430
  447
  458
  478
  499
  521
  544
  569
  595
  623
  652
  683
  715
  749
  785
  823
  862
  904
  948
  994
  1,043
  1,094
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
Total operating expenses, $m
  326
  335
  344
  356
  367
  380
  393
  409
  424
  441
  459
  470
  490
  511
  534
  557
  582
  609
  637
  666
  698
  730
  764
  801
  839
  879
  921
  966
  1,012
  1,061
  1,113
Operating income, $m
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
EBITDA, $m
  45
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
Tax expense, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Net income, $m
  18
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  371
  366
  377
  389
  402
  417
  432
  449
  466
  485
  505
  527
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654
  684
  716
  749
  785
  822
  861
  902
  945
  991
  1,039
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,257
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  356
  366
  377
  389
  402
  417
  432
  449
  466
  485
  505
  527
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654
  684
  716
  749
  785
  822
  861
  902
  945
  991
  1,039
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,257
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.990
  0.990
  0.988
  0.988
  0.989
  0.989
  0.990
  0.990
  0.989
  0.989
  0.990
  0.988
  0.989
  0.989
  0.990
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.988
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
Average production assets, $m
  227
  233
  240
  247
  256
  265
  275
  285
  297
  309
  321
  335
  349
  365
  381
  398
  416
  435
  455
  477
  499
  523
  547
  574
  601
  630
  661
  693
  727
  762
  799
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  7
  12
  16
  21
  27
  32
  39
  45
  52
  60
  68
  76
  85
  95
  105
  115
  126
  138
  150
  163
  177
  192
  207
  223
  240
  257
  276
  296
  316
Total liabilities, $m
  124
  128
  132
  137
  141
  146
  152
  157
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401
  421
  441
Total equity, $m
  246
  237
  245
  252
  261
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  328
  342
  357
  372
  389
  406
  425
  444
  465
  486
  509
  533
  559
  585
  614
  643
  674
  707
  742
  778
  816
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  370
  365
  377
  389
  402
  416
  432
  448
  467
  485
  505
  527
  550
  573
  599
  626
  655
  684
  716
  749
  784
  821
  861
  902
  946
  991
  1,039
  1,089
  1,143
  1,199
  1,257
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.030
  0.050
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649
  0.649

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Funds from operations, $m
  59
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  57
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  50
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  32
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Del Frisco's Restaurant Group, Inc. develops, owns and operates three contemporary, complementary restaurants: Del Frisco's Double Eagle Steak House (Del Frisco's), Sullivan's Steakhouse (Sullivan's) and Del Frisco's Grille (the Grille). As of December 27, 2016, the Company operated 53 restaurants in 24 states and the District of Columbia in the United States. The Company's segments include Del Frisco's, Sullivan's and the Grille. Del Frisco's is a steakhouse concept in the United States. The Del Frisco's brand's menu includes the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Prime grade, wet-aged steaks hand-cut at the time of order and a range of other offerings, including prime lamb, fresh seafood, and signature side dishes and desserts. Each restaurant has a sommelier to guide diners through a wine list. As of December 27, 2016, the Company operated 12 Del Frisco's steakhouses in nine states and the District of Columbia. Sullivan's is a complementary concept to Del Frisco's.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Del Frisco's Restaurant Group (DFRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 7.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.9%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 28%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

DFRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DFRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $352 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Del Frisco's Restaurant Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Del Frisco's Restaurant Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DFRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DFRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Del Frisco's Restaurant Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Del Frisco's Restaurant Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DFRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $9 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DFRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Del Frisco's Restaurant Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Del Frisco's Restaurant Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DFRG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DFRG are equal to 64.3%.

Life of production assets of 15.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Del Frisco's Restaurant Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DFRG is equal to -5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $246 million for Del Frisco's Restaurant Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.219 million for Del Frisco's Restaurant Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Del Frisco's Restaurant Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Del Frisco's reports 3Q loss   [07:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Del Frisco's to take over Cheddar's North Texas headquarters at Cypress Waters   [Aug-23-17 02:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 22nd   [Aug-22-17 09:14AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 10th   [Aug-10-17 07:39AM  Zacks]
▶ Weekly CFO Buys Highlights   [Aug-09-17 01:15PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Del Friscos Restaurant Group Announces Continued Growth   [Aug-01-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Del Friscos adding another upscale steakhouse in Boston   [Jul-27-17 10:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Del Frisco's misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-21-17 08:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Del Friscos steakhouse in Houston closes for remodeling   [Jun-29-17 09:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Another Galleria-area steakhouse to close after not seeing a Super Bowl bump   [May-11-17 04:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Del Frisco's names Yum! Brands exec to chief financial officer   [May-08-17 05:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Del Frisco's misses Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-25-17 06:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Del Frisco's Grille names brand president   [Mar-14-17 05:00PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Del Frisco's Grille names brand president   [05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Del Frisco's tops Street 4Q forecasts   [06:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Del Frisco's names brand presidents, may be closer to sale   [Jan-24-17 01:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About THL Credit, Inc. (TCRD)   [Dec-20-16 04:15PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-14-16 08:02PM  at Insider Monkey]
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▶ Is Boingo Wireless Inc (WIFI) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 03:46PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Trump Presidency Could Chill Happy Meal   [Nov-30-16 11:17AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Dallas steak staples make list of America's best steakhouses   [Nov-23-16 08:50AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ [$$] Panera, Whole Foods, Yes; Chipotle, Kroger, No   [Nov-12-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of DFRG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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