Intrinsic value of Delta Natural Gas - DGAS

Previous Close

$30.63

  Intrinsic Value

$5.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

  Value-price divergence*

-96%

Previous close

$30.63

 
Intrinsic value

$5.93

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-96%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DGAS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -25.58
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.48
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  157
  164
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  157
  164
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
Operating income, $m
  11
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
EBITDA, $m
  18
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  26
Tax expense, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Net income, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  189
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
  390
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  544
  570
  599
  628
  659
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
  390
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  544
  570
  599
  628
  659
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.376
  0.373
  0.375
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.375
  0.376
  0.377
  0.378
  0.377
  0.375
  0.376
  0.376
  0.377
  0.375
  0.376
  0.375
  0.376
  0.374
  0.377
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.377
  0.376
  0.375
  0.375
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
Average production assets, $m
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  316
  331
  347
  364
  382
  400
  420
  441
  462
  485
  509
  534
Working capital, $m
  22
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Total debt, $m
  52
  54
  59
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  191
  203
  215
  229
  243
  258
  273
  289
  307
  325
  344
  364
Total liabilities, $m
  111
  113
  118
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  317
  332
  348
  366
  384
  403
  423
Total equity, $m
  78
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  225
  237
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  189
  176
  184
  191
  198
  207
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  390
  409
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  543
  571
  599
  628
  660
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.667
  0.860
  0.890
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.150
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.450
  1.470
  1.480
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.347
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  15
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  20
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Discount rate, %
 
  5.00
  5.25
  5.51
  5.79
  6.08
  6.38
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  19
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. distributes or transports natural gas in central and southeastern Kentucky. It operates in two segments, Regulated and Non-Regulated. The Regulated segment distributes natural gas to its retail customers primarily in 23 rural counties. This segment also transports natural gas to industrial customers on its system who purchase natural gas in the open market, as well as transports natural gas on behalf of local producers and other customers not on its distribution system. It serves customers primarily in Nicholasville, Corbin, and Berea areas. The Non-Regulated segment purchases natural gas in the open market, primarily from Kentucky producers, and resells this gas to industrial customers on its distribution system and to others not on its system. This segment also produces and sells natural gas in the open market, as well as natural gas liquids. The company owns approximately 2,600 miles of natural gas gathering, transmission, distribution, and storage lines; and holds leases for the storage of natural gas under 8,000 acres located in Bell County, Kentucky. It serves approximately 36,000 customers. Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Winchester, Kentucky.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Delta Natural Gas (DGAS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.2
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -25.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 64.1%
Total Debt to Equity 66.7%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Equity 7.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 28.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Operating Margin 17.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Net Profit Margin 9.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Payout Ratio 100%

DGAS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DGAS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $64 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Delta Natural Gas. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Delta Natural Gas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DGAS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5%, whose default value for DGAS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Delta Natural Gas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Delta Natural Gas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DGAS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DGAS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Delta Natural Gas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Delta Natural Gas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DGAS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DGAS are equal to 215.6%.

Life of production assets of 19.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Delta Natural Gas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DGAS is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $78 million for Delta Natural Gas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.057 million for Delta Natural Gas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Delta Natural Gas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Jun-26-17 11:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [May-18-17 01:59PM  Business Wire]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Feb-16-17 11:33AM  Business Wire]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Nov-17-16 03:04PM  Business Wire]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Aug-18-16 01:58PM  Business Wire]
▶ SFO to break ground on massive $2.4 billion Terminal 1 renovation   [Jun-21-16 07:35PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [May-18-16 02:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Nov-19  04:21PM  Business Wire]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Aug-14  05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [May-14  11:54AM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Delta Natural Gas Co., Inc.   [May-07  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Feb-12  03:34PM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Delta Natural Gas Co., Inc.   [Feb-07  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Alaska, Delta, vie to be the biggest Seahawks supporters   [Jan-27  03:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Nov-20  02:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Delta Natural Gas Co., Inc.   [Nov-06  07:08PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Aug-15  04:56PM  Business Wire]
▶ 5 Water And Gas Companies Surging With Potential   [Jun-17  01:37PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [May-09  10:35AM  Business Wire]
▶ Sempra Beats on Earnings, Revs   [May-02  02:17PM  Zacks]
▶ ConEdison, Sempra in 360 MW Solar Project   [Mar-21  04:10PM  Zacks]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Feb-19  09:17AM  Business Wire]
▶ Delta Natural Gas Company, Inc. Announces Dividend   [Nov-21  01:51PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of DGAS Financial statements of DGAS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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