Intrinsic value of Delek US Holdings - DK

Previous Close

$48.56

  Intrinsic Value

$3.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$48.56

 
Intrinsic value

$3.84

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
(a)
   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  4,282
  4,380
  4,493
  4,619
  4,759
  4,913
  5,080
  5,262
  5,457
  5,666
  5,890
  6,129
  6,384
  6,654
  6,941
  7,245
  7,567
  7,908
  8,268
  8,648
  9,048
  9,471
  9,917
  10,386
  10,881
  11,401
  11,949
  12,526
  13,133
  13,771
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,417
  3,495
  3,585
  3,686
  3,798
  3,920
  4,053
  4,198
  4,353
  4,520
  4,695
  4,885
  5,088
  5,304
  5,533
  5,775
  6,032
  6,303
  6,590
  6,893
  7,212
  7,549
  7,904
  8,279
  8,673
  9,088
  9,524
  9,984
  10,468
  10,976
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  935
  956
  977
  998
  1,020
  1,043
  1,066
  1,089
  1,113
  1,137
  1,162
  1,188
  1,214
  1,241
  1,268
  1,296
  1,325
  1,354
  1,384
  1,414
  1,445
  1,477
  1,509
  1,543
  1,576
  1,611
  1,647
  1,683
  1,720
  1,758
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  4,352
  4,451
  4,562
  4,684
  4,818
  4,963
  5,119
  5,287
  5,466
  5,657
  5,857
  6,073
  6,302
  6,545
  6,801
  7,071
  7,357
  7,657
  7,974
  8,307
  8,657
  9,026
  9,413
  9,822
  10,249
  10,699
  11,171
  11,667
  12,188
  12,734
Operating income, $m
  0
  -70
  -71
  -69
  -65
  -58
  -50
  -38
  -25
  -10
  8
  33
  56
  81
  109
  140
  174
  211
  251
  294
  341
  391
  445
  503
  565
  632
  702
  778
  859
  945
  1,037
EBITDA, $m
  0
  54
  56
  61
  69
  79
  92
  108
  127
  148
  172
  198
  228
  261
  296
  335
  378
  424
  473
  527
  584
  645
  711
  782
  857
  937
  1,023
  1,114
  1,211
  1,314
  1,424
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  132
  141
  150
  160
  171
  182
  194
  206
  220
  234
  248
  264
  280
  297
  315
  334
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -125
  -128
  -130
  -129
  -126
  -122
  -116
  -108
  -98
  -86
  -68
  -52
  -34
  -14
  9
  34
  61
  91
  123
  159
  197
  239
  283
  332
  383
  439
  498
  562
  630
  703
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  9
  16
  25
  33
  43
  53
  64
  77
  90
  103
  118
  135
  152
  170
  190
Net income, $m
  0
  -125
  -128
  -130
  -129
  -126
  -122
  -116
  -108
  -98
  -86
  -68
  -52
  -34
  -14
  6
  25
  44
  66
  90
  116
  144
  174
  207
  242
  280
  320
  364
  410
  460
  513

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  3,039
  3,109
  3,189
  3,279
  3,378
  3,487
  3,606
  3,734
  3,873
  4,021
  4,180
  4,350
  4,531
  4,723
  4,926
  5,142
  5,371
  5,612
  5,868
  6,137
  6,422
  6,722
  7,038
  7,371
  7,722
  8,092
  8,481
  8,890
  9,320
  9,773
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  3,039
  3,109
  3,189
  3,279
  3,378
  3,487
  3,606
  3,734
  3,873
  4,021
  4,180
  4,350
  4,531
  4,723
  4,926
  5,142
  5,371
  5,612
  5,868
  6,137
  6,422
  6,722
  7,038
  7,371
  7,722
  8,092
  8,481
  8,890
  9,320
  9,773
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
  1.409
Average production assets, $m
  0
  1,203
  1,231
  1,263
  1,298
  1,337
  1,381
  1,428
  1,479
  1,533
  1,592
  1,655
  1,722
  1,794
  1,870
  1,950
  2,036
  2,126
  2,222
  2,323
  2,430
  2,543
  2,661
  2,787
  2,919
  3,057
  3,204
  3,358
  3,520
  3,690
  3,870
Working capital, $m
  0
  -107
  -110
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -344
Total debt, $m
  0
  872
  919
  972
  1,032
  1,098
  1,171
  1,250
  1,336
  1,428
  1,527
  1,633
  1,747
  1,867
  1,995
  2,131
  2,275
  2,427
  2,589
  2,759
  2,939
  3,129
  3,329
  3,540
  3,762
  3,996
  4,242
  4,502
  4,775
  5,062
  5,364
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  2,027
  2,074
  2,127
  2,187
  2,253
  2,326
  2,405
  2,491
  2,583
  2,682
  2,788
  2,901
  3,022
  3,150
  3,286
  3,430
  3,582
  3,744
  3,914
  4,094
  4,283
  4,484
  4,694
  4,917
  5,151
  5,397
  5,657
  5,930
  6,217
  6,519
Total equity, $m
  0
  1,012
  1,035
  1,062
  1,092
  1,125
  1,161
  1,201
  1,244
  1,290
  1,339
  1,392
  1,449
  1,509
  1,573
  1,640
  1,712
  1,788
  1,869
  1,954
  2,044
  2,139
  2,238
  2,344
  2,455
  2,572
  2,695
  2,824
  2,960
  3,104
  3,255
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  3,039
  3,109
  3,189
  3,279
  3,378
  3,487
  3,606
  3,735
  3,873
  4,021
  4,180
  4,350
  4,531
  4,723
  4,926
  5,142
  5,370
  5,613
  5,868
  6,138
  6,422
  6,722
  7,038
  7,372
  7,723
  8,092
  8,481
  8,890
  9,321
  9,774
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.860
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.040
  1.070
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.300
  1.330
  1.360
  1.390
  1.410
  1.440
  1.460
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  -125
  -128
  -130
  -129
  -126
  -122
  -116
  -108
  -98
  -86
  -68
  -52
  -34
  -14
  6
  25
  44
  66
  90
  116
  144
  174
  207
  242
  280
  320
  364
  410
  460
  513
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  166
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  320
  336
  352
  369
  387
Funds from operations, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  1
  5
  11
  20
  31
  44
  60
  77
  98
  120
  145
  173
  201
  228
  257
  288
  322
  359
  398
  440
  486
  534
  586
  641
  699
  762
  829
  900
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  1
  1
  3
  8
  15
  24
  35
  49
  64
  83
  103
  126
  152
  180
  209
  236
  265
  297
  331
  368
  408
  451
  497
  546
  598
  654
  713
  777
  844
  916
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -118
  -120
  -123
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -143
  -148
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -320
  -336
  -352
  -369
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -268
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -474
  -498
  -522
  -548
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  -140
  -147
  -151
  -154
  -154
  -153
  -150
  -145
  -138
  -130
  -119
  -107
  -92
  -75
  -59
  -45
  -29
  -11
  8
  29
  53
  78
  105
  135
  167
  202
  239
  279
  322
  368
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  39
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  145
  152
  156
  159
  159
  158
  155
  150
  144
  135
  121
  109
  94
  78
  61
  47
  32
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  184
  199
  209
  219
  225
  231
  234
  236
  236
  234
  227
  222
  214
  206
  197
  191
  184
  175
  170
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  44
  51
  58
  65
  71
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  164
  178
  209
  242
  278
  316
  357
  401
  448
  498
  552
  609
  670
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -145
  -152
  -156
  -159
  -159
  -158
  -155
  -150
  -144
  -135
  -121
  -109
  -94
  -78
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -151
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -101
  -100
  -98
  -94
  -88
  -80
  -71
  -59
  -46
  -30
  -13
  7
  28
  53
  70
  75
  79
  84
  93
  119
  148
  178
  211
  246
  284
  325
  369
  415
  465
  519
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -97
  -92
  -85
  -77
  -68
  -58
  -48
  -37
  -26
  -16
  -6
  3
  11
  18
  21
  19
  17
  15
  14
  15
  15
  15
  14
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.4
  90.9
  86.6
  82.5
  78.8
  75.3
  72.1
  69.2
  66.7
  64.5
  62.6
  61.0
  59.8
  58.8
  58.0
  57.5
  57.1
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0
  57.0

Delek US Holdings, Inc. operates as an integrated energy company that operates in petroleum refining, wholesale distribution, and convenience store retailing businesses. The company operates in three segments: Refining, Logistics, and Retail. The Refining segment owns and operates two refineries in Tyler, Texas, and El Dorado, Arkansas; and produces various petroleum-based products used in transportation and industrial markets. This segment offers a range of products, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuels, liquefied petroleum gas, and natural gas liquids, as well as biodiesel blended products. The Logistics segment gathers, transports, and stores crude oil and intermediate products, as well as markets, distributes, transports, and stores refined products. It also offers crude oil and refined product transportation services; terminalling; and wholesale marketing services to third parties in Texas, Tennessee, and Arkansas, as well as markets light products using third-party terminals. This segment owns approximately 400 miles of crude oil transportation pipelines, 245 miles of active refined product pipelines, 600-mile crude oil gathering system, and associated crude oil storage tanks with an aggregate of approximately 8.5 million barrels of active shell capacity. The Retail segment markets gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products, as well as convenience merchandise. As of December 31, 2015, this segment operated a network of approximately 358 company-operated convenience store locations under the MAPCO Express, MAPCO Mart, Discount Food Mart, Fast Food and Fuel, East Coast, Delta Express, and Favorite Markets brands. The company serves oil companies, independent refiners and marketers, jobbers, distributors, utility and transportation companies, independent retail fuel operators, and the United States government. Delek US Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Delek US Holdings (DK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

DK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4198 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Delek US Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from income statement of Delek US Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Delek US Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Delek US Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $915 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Delek US Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Delek US Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DK stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DK are equal to 28.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Delek US Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DK is equal to -2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $992 million for Delek US Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62 million for Delek US Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Delek US Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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Financial statements of DK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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