Intrinsic value of Delek Logistics Partners - DKL

Previous Close

$30.75

  Intrinsic Value

$40.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+31%

Previous close

$30.75

 
Intrinsic value

$40.26

 
Up/down potential

+31%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of DKL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -24.07
  22.40
  20.66
  19.09
  17.68
  16.42
  15.27
  14.25
  13.32
  12.49
  11.74
  11.07
  10.46
  9.91
  9.42
  8.98
  8.58
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
Revenue, $m
  448
  548
  662
  788
  927
  1,080
  1,244
  1,422
  1,611
  1,812
  2,025
  2,249
  2,485
  2,731
  2,988
  3,257
  3,536
  3,827
  4,129
  4,444
  4,770
  5,110
  5,463
  5,829
  6,211
  6,607
  7,020
  7,450
  7,898
  8,365
  8,852
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  476
  574
  683
  804
  935
  1,078
  1,231
  1,395
  1,570
  1,754
  1,946
  2,150
  2,363
  2,586
  2,818
  3,060
  3,312
  3,573
  3,845
  4,128
  4,422
  4,727
  5,044
  5,374
  5,717
  6,075
  6,447
  6,834
  7,238
  7,660
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  370
  476
  574
  683
  804
  935
  1,078
  1,231
  1,395
  1,570
  1,754
  1,946
  2,150
  2,363
  2,586
  2,818
  3,060
  3,312
  3,573
  3,845
  4,128
  4,422
  4,727
  5,044
  5,374
  5,717
  6,075
  6,447
  6,834
  7,238
  7,660
Operating income, $m
  78
  73
  88
  105
  124
  144
  166
  190
  216
  243
  272
  303
  335
  368
  402
  439
  476
  515
  556
  598
  642
  688
  736
  785
  836
  890
  945
  1,003
  1,064
  1,127
  1,192
EBITDA, $m
  99
  98
  119
  141
  166
  194
  223
  255
  289
  325
  364
  404
  446
  490
  536
  585
  635
  687
  741
  798
  856
  917
  980
  1,046
  1,115
  1,186
  1,260
  1,337
  1,418
  1,501
  1,589
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  0
  1
  4
  8
  12
  17
  21
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  97
  106
  115
  125
  134
  145
  155
  167
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
Earnings before tax, $m
  63
  73
  87
  101
  116
  132
  150
  169
  189
  211
  234
  259
  284
  310
  338
  366
  396
  427
  459
  493
  528
  564
  601
  640
  681
  723
  767
  813
  861
  911
  962
Tax expense, $m
  0
  20
  23
  27
  31
  36
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  220
  232
  246
  260
Net income, $m
  63
  53
  63
  73
  84
  96
  109
  123
  138
  154
  170
  189
  207
  226
  246
  267
  289
  312
  335
  360
  385
  411
  439
  467
  497
  528
  560
  594
  628
  665
  703

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  416
  509
  614
  732
  861
  1,002
  1,155
  1,320
  1,496
  1,683
  1,880
  2,089
  2,307
  2,536
  2,775
  3,024
  3,283
  3,553
  3,834
  4,126
  4,429
  4,744
  5,072
  5,412
  5,767
  6,135
  6,518
  6,917
  7,333
  7,767
  8,219
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  416
  509
  614
  732
  861
  1,002
  1,155
  1,320
  1,496
  1,683
  1,880
  2,089
  2,307
  2,536
  2,775
  3,024
  3,283
  3,553
  3,834
  4,126
  4,429
  4,744
  5,072
  5,412
  5,767
  6,135
  6,518
  6,917
  7,333
  7,767
  8,219
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.077
  1.077
  1.078
  1.077
  1.077
  1.078
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
Average production assets, $m
  267
  327
  394
  470
  553
  643
  742
  847
  960
  1,080
  1,207
  1,341
  1,481
  1,628
  1,781
  1,941
  2,108
  2,281
  2,461
  2,648
  2,843
  3,045
  3,256
  3,474
  3,702
  3,938
  4,184
  4,440
  4,707
  4,985
  5,276
Working capital, $m
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  186
  197
  209
  221
Total debt, $m
  0
  29
  124
  229
  346
  473
  611
  759
  917
  1,086
  1,263
  1,451
  1,647
  1,853
  2,068
  2,292
  2,526
  2,769
  3,022
  3,284
  3,557
  3,841
  4,136
  4,442
  4,761
  5,092
  5,437
  5,797
  6,171
  6,561
  6,968
Total liabilities, $m
  429
  458
  553
  658
  775
  902
  1,040
  1,188
  1,346
  1,515
  1,692
  1,880
  2,076
  2,282
  2,497
  2,721
  2,955
  3,198
  3,451
  3,713
  3,986
  4,270
  4,565
  4,871
  5,190
  5,521
  5,866
  6,226
  6,600
  6,990
  7,397
Total equity, $m
  -13
  51
  61
  73
  86
  100
  116
  132
  150
  168
  188
  209
  231
  254
  277
  302
  328
  355
  383
  413
  443
  474
  507
  541
  577
  613
  652
  692
  733
  777
  822
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  416
  509
  614
  731
  861
  1,002
  1,156
  1,320
  1,496
  1,683
  1,880
  2,089
  2,307
  2,536
  2,774
  3,023
  3,283
  3,553
  3,834
  4,126
  4,429
  4,744
  5,072
  5,412
  5,767
  6,134
  6,518
  6,918
  7,333
  7,767
  8,219
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.570
  2.020
  3.140
  4.020
  4.720
  5.290
  5.750
  6.130
  6.450
  6.720
  6.950
  7.140
  7.310
  7.450
  7.580
  7.690
  7.790
  7.880
  7.960
  8.030
  8.100
  8.150
  8.210
  8.260
  8.300
  8.340
  8.380
  8.420
  8.450
  8.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.031
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  63
  53
  63
  73
  84
  96
  109
  123
  138
  154
  170
  189
  207
  226
  246
  267
  289
  312
  335
  360
  385
  411
  439
  467
  497
  528
  560
  594
  628
  665
  703
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  26
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  92
  101
  111
  122
  134
  146
  158
  171
  185
  199
  214
  229
  245
  261
  278
  296
  315
  334
  354
  375
  397
Funds from operations, $m
  116
  79
  94
  110
  127
  146
  166
  188
  212
  236
  262
  290
  319
  349
  380
  413
  448
  483
  520
  559
  599
  640
  684
  729
  775
  824
  875
  927
  982
  1,040
  1,099
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  101
  76
  91
  107
  124
  142
  162
  184
  207
  231
  257
  284
  313
  343
  374
  407
  441
  476
  513
  551
  591
  632
  675
  719
  766
  814
  864
  917
  971
  1,028
  1,087
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -42
  -48
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -81
  -91
  -101
  -111
  -122
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -171
  -185
  -199
  -214
  -229
  -245
  -261
  -278
  -296
  -315
  -334
  -354
  -375
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -60
  -68
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -98
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -290
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -73
  -80
  -93
  -105
  -118
  -133
  -146
  -162
  -177
  -192
  -208
  -225
  -241
  -258
  -275
  -294
  -313
  -331
  -351
  -372
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -464
  -488
  -514
  -542
  -571
  -601
  -632
  -665
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  -4
  -1
  2
  5
  10
  16
  22
  30
  39
  49
  60
  72
  84
  98
  113
  128
  144
  161
  179
  197
  216
  236
  256
  277
  299
  322
  346
  370
  396
  422
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  315
  29
  95
  106
  116
  127
  138
  148
  158
  168
  178
  187
  197
  206
  215
  224
  234
  243
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  306
  319
  332
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  40
  95
  106
  116
  127
  138
  148
  158
  168
  178
  187
  197
  206
  215
  224
  234
  243
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  306
  319
  332
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  37
  94
  107
  122
  137
  153
  170
  188
  207
  227
  247
  268
  290
  313
  337
  362
  387
  414
  441
  470
  500
  530
  563
  596
  631
  667
  705
  745
  786
  829
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  2
  -64
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -27
  84
  96
  109
  123
  138
  154
  171
  189
  207
  226
  246
  267
  289
  312
  336
  360
  386
  412
  440
  468
  498
  529
  561
  594
  629
  665
  703
  743
  784
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -26
  76
  83
  90
  95
  100
  104
  107
  108
  109
  107
  105
  102
  97
  92
  85
  78
  71
  63
  56
  48
  41
  35
  29
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Delek Logistics Partners, LP owns and operates logistics and marketing assets for crude oil, and intermediate and refined products. The Company's business primarily consists of certain crude oil, intermediate and refined products pipelines and transportation, storage, wholesale marketing, terminaling and offloading assets, which were previously owned, operated or held by Delek US Holdings, Inc. (Delek), and assets acquired from unrelated third parties. The Company operates through two segments: Pipelines and Transportation segment, and Wholesale Marketing and Terminalling segment. The Company engaged in the gathering, transporting and storing crude oil; storing intermediate products and feed stocks, and marketing, distributing, transporting, offloading and storing refined products. The Company also provides crude oil, intermediate and refined products transportation services for terminaling, and marketing services to third parties primarily in Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Delek Logistics Partners (DKL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.9
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book -57.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -24.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -45%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Return On Total Capital -525%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Return On Equity -525%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
EBITDA Margin 21.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Operating Margin 17.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 14.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 38.1%

DKL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DKL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $448 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Delek Logistics Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Delek Logistics Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DKL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DKL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Delek Logistics Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Delek Logistics Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DKL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DKL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Delek Logistics Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Delek Logistics Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DKL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DKL are equal to 59.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Delek Logistics Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DKL is equal to 2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-13 million for Delek Logistics Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.208 million for Delek Logistics Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Delek Logistics Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Top MLP Gainers in the Week Ending November 24   [Nov-28-17 10:44AM  Market Realist]
▶ Delek Logistics Partners LP to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-09-17 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Delek US Holdings Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-08-17 09:55PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DKs Dividend Yield: Highest Valuation and Lowest Market Cap   [Sep-29-17 10:43AM  Market Realist]
▶ Leading MLP Losers in Week Ended September 8   [Sep-12-17 08:10AM  Market Realist]
▶ Delek US Holdings Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 05:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ALDW, DKL, HCLP: Last Weeks Key MLP Rating Updates   [Jul-10-17 03:13PM  Market Realist]
▶ These MLPs Took June in Stride   [Jul-07-17 09:09AM  Market Realist]
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▶ Alon USA Energy Stockholders Approve Merger Transaction   [Jun-28-17 06:21PM  PR Newswire]
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▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for May 22nd   [May-22-17 09:15AM  Zacks]
▶ Delek US Holdings Announces Investor Conference Schedule   [May-09-17 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Delek US Holdings Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-08-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of DKL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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