Intrinsic value of Delek Logistics Partners - DKL

Previous Close

$31.30

  Intrinsic Value

$22.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

  Value-price divergence*

+101%

Previous close

$31.30

 
Intrinsic value

$22.78

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+101%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DKL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -24.07
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.62
  8.25
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
Revenue, $m
  448
  508
  572
  639
  710
  785
  863
  945
  1,030
  1,119
  1,211
  1,307
  1,407
  1,511
  1,619
  1,731
  1,847
  1,969
  2,095
  2,226
  2,362
  2,504
  2,653
  2,807
  2,968
  3,137
  3,313
  3,496
  3,688
  3,889
  4,098
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  441
  496
  554
  616
  681
  748
  819
  893
  970
  1,049
  1,131
  1,218
  1,308
  1,401
  1,498
  1,599
  1,703
  1,812
  1,926
  2,044
  2,167
  2,295
  2,429
  2,569
  2,714
  2,866
  3,025
  3,191
  3,365
  3,547
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  370
  441
  496
  554
  616
  681
  748
  819
  893
  970
  1,049
  1,131
  1,218
  1,308
  1,401
  1,498
  1,599
  1,703
  1,812
  1,926
  2,044
  2,167
  2,295
  2,429
  2,569
  2,714
  2,866
  3,025
  3,191
  3,365
  3,547
Operating income, $m
  78
  67
  76
  85
  94
  105
  115
  126
  138
  150
  162
  176
  190
  204
  218
  233
  249
  265
  282
  300
  318
  337
  357
  378
  400
  422
  446
  471
  497
  524
  552
EBITDA, $m
  99
  91
  103
  115
  128
  141
  155
  170
  185
  201
  217
  235
  253
  271
  291
  311
  332
  353
  376
  399
  424
  450
  476
  504
  533
  563
  595
  628
  662
  698
  736
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
Earnings before tax, $m
  63
  67
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  134
  144
  156
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  316
  333
  351
  369
  389
  409
  431
  453
Tax expense, $m
  0
  18
  21
  22
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
Net income, $m
  63
  49
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  114
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  416
  472
  531
  594
  660
  729
  802
  877
  957
  1,039
  1,125
  1,214
  1,307
  1,403
  1,503
  1,607
  1,715
  1,828
  1,945
  2,067
  2,193
  2,325
  2,463
  2,607
  2,756
  2,913
  3,076
  3,246
  3,424
  3,611
  3,805
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  416
  472
  531
  594
  660
  729
  802
  877
  957
  1,039
  1,125
  1,214
  1,307
  1,403
  1,503
  1,607
  1,715
  1,828
  1,945
  2,067
  2,193
  2,325
  2,463
  2,607
  2,756
  2,913
  3,076
  3,246
  3,424
  3,611
  3,805
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.077
  1.076
  1.077
  1.076
  1.076
  1.077
  1.076
  1.078
  1.076
  1.077
  1.076
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
Average production assets, $m
  267
  303
  341
  381
  423
  468
  515
  563
  614
  667
  722
  779
  839
  901
  965
  1,032
  1,101
  1,173
  1,248
  1,326
  1,408
  1,493
  1,581
  1,673
  1,769
  1,870
  1,974
  2,084
  2,198
  2,318
  2,443
Working capital, $m
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
Total debt, $m
  0
  -4
  49
  105
  165
  227
  292
  361
  432
  506
  583
  664
  747
  834
  924
  1,017
  1,115
  1,216
  1,321
  1,431
  1,545
  1,664
  1,788
  1,917
  2,052
  2,192
  2,339
  2,493
  2,653
  2,821
  2,996
Total liabilities, $m
  429
  425
  478
  534
  594
  656
  721
  790
  861
  935
  1,012
  1,093
  1,176
  1,263
  1,353
  1,446
  1,544
  1,645
  1,750
  1,860
  1,974
  2,093
  2,217
  2,346
  2,481
  2,621
  2,768
  2,922
  3,082
  3,250
  3,425
Total equity, $m
  -13
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  131
  140
  150
  161
  172
  183
  194
  207
  219
  233
  246
  261
  276
  291
  308
  325
  342
  361
  381
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  416
  472
  531
  593
  660
  729
  801
  878
  957
  1,039
  1,124
  1,214
  1,307
  1,403
  1,503
  1,607
  1,716
  1,828
  1,944
  2,067
  2,193
  2,326
  2,463
  2,607
  2,757
  2,912
  3,076
  3,247
  3,424
  3,611
  3,806
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.090
  0.920
  1.770
  2.500
  3.120
  3.650
  4.110
  4.520
  4.870
  5.190
  5.470
  5.720
  5.940
  6.150
  6.330
  6.500
  6.650
  6.790
  6.920
  7.040
  7.160
  7.260
  7.350
  7.440
  7.530
  7.610
  7.680
  7.750
  7.810
  7.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.031
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  63
  49
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  114
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  148
  157
  165
  174
  184
Funds from operations, $m
  116
  73
  82
  91
  99
  108
  118
  128
  139
  149
  161
  172
  184
  197
  210
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  418
  441
  464
  489
  515
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  101
  72
  81
  89
  98
  107
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  221
  236
  250
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  392
  414
  436
  459
  484
  509
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -157
  -165
  -174
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -73
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -246
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -299
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  16
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  315
  -4
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  168
  175
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  7
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  168
  175
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  22
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  196
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  300
  315
  332
  349
  367
  385
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  2
  -60
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -38
  67
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
  348
  366
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -36
  62
  64
  65
  66
  67
  67
  67
  66
  64
  62
  59
  56
  52
  49
  44
  40
  36
  32
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Delek Logistics Partners, LP owns and operates logistics and marketing assets for crude oil, and intermediate and refined products. The Company's business primarily consists of certain crude oil, intermediate and refined products pipelines and transportation, storage, wholesale marketing, terminaling and offloading assets, which were previously owned, operated or held by Delek US Holdings, Inc. (Delek), and assets acquired from unrelated third parties. The Company operates through two segments: Pipelines and Transportation segment, and Wholesale Marketing and Terminalling segment. The Company engaged in the gathering, transporting and storing crude oil; storing intermediate products and feed stocks, and marketing, distributing, transporting, offloading and storing refined products. The Company also provides crude oil, intermediate and refined products transportation services for terminaling, and marketing services to third parties primarily in Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Delek Logistics Partners (DKL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.1
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book -58.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -24.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -45%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Return On Total Capital -525%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Return On Equity -525%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
EBITDA Margin 21.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Operating Margin 17.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 14.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 38.1%

DKL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DKL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $448 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Delek Logistics Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Delek Logistics Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DKL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DKL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Delek Logistics Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Delek Logistics Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DKL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DKL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Delek Logistics Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Delek Logistics Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DKL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DKL are equal to 59.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Delek Logistics Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DKL is equal to 2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-13 million for Delek Logistics Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.734 million for Delek Logistics Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Delek Logistics Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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Financial statements of DKL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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