Intrinsic value of Delek Logistics Partners - DKL

Previous Close

$28.00

  Intrinsic Value

$33.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+18%

Previous close

$28.00

 
Intrinsic value

$33.16

 
Up/down potential

+18%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of DKL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -24.07
  20.10
  18.59
  17.23
  16.01
  14.91
  13.92
  13.02
  12.22
  11.50
  10.85
  10.27
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  448
  646
  766
  898
  1,042
  1,197
  1,364
  1,542
  1,730
  1,929
  2,138
  2,358
  2,588
  2,827
  3,077
  3,337
  3,608
  3,889
  4,182
  4,486
  4,801
  5,130
  5,471
  5,826
  6,195
  6,579
  6,980
  7,397
  7,832
  8,285
  8,758
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  534
  633
  741
  859
  987
  1,124
  1,270
  1,425
  1,588
  1,760
  1,938
  2,126
  2,323
  2,529
  2,743
  2,965
  3,196
  3,437
  3,686
  3,946
  4,216
  4,496
  4,788
  5,091
  5,407
  5,736
  6,079
  6,436
  6,809
  7,197
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  370
  534
  633
  741
  859
  987
  1,124
  1,270
  1,425
  1,588
  1,760
  1,938
  2,126
  2,323
  2,529
  2,743
  2,965
  3,196
  3,437
  3,686
  3,946
  4,216
  4,496
  4,788
  5,091
  5,407
  5,736
  6,079
  6,436
  6,809
  7,197
Operating income, $m
  78
  112
  134
  157
  183
  211
  240
  272
  306
  341
  378
  420
  461
  504
  548
  595
  643
  693
  745
  799
  856
  914
  975
  1,038
  1,104
  1,172
  1,244
  1,318
  1,396
  1,476
  1,561
EBITDA, $m
  99
  149
  176
  207
  240
  276
  314
  355
  398
  444
  492
  543
  596
  651
  709
  769
  831
  896
  963
  1,033
  1,106
  1,181
  1,260
  1,342
  1,427
  1,515
  1,607
  1,704
  1,804
  1,908
  2,017
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  25
  29
  33
  38
  44
  49
  55
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  278
  295
  311
Earnings before tax, $m
  63
  87
  105
  124
  145
  167
  191
  216
  244
  272
  302
  336
  369
  403
  439
  476
  515
  555
  596
  640
  685
  732
  780
  831
  884
  938
  996
  1,055
  1,117
  1,182
  1,249
Tax expense, $m
  0
  24
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  58
  66
  73
  82
  91
  100
  109
  118
  129
  139
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
  239
  253
  269
  285
  302
  319
  337
Net income, $m
  63
  64
  77
  90
  106
  122
  139
  158
  178
  199
  220
  245
  269
  294
  320
  347
  376
  405
  435
  467
  500
  534
  570
  607
  645
  685
  727
  770
  816
  863
  912

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  416
  533
  632
  741
  859
  987
  1,125
  1,271
  1,426
  1,590
  1,763
  1,944
  2,133
  2,331
  2,537
  2,751
  2,974
  3,206
  3,447
  3,698
  3,958
  4,229
  4,510
  4,803
  5,107
  5,424
  5,754
  6,098
  6,456
  6,830
  7,220
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  416
  533
  632
  741
  859
  987
  1,125
  1,271
  1,426
  1,590
  1,763
  1,944
  2,133
  2,331
  2,537
  2,751
  2,974
  3,206
  3,447
  3,698
  3,958
  4,229
  4,510
  4,803
  5,107
  5,424
  5,754
  6,098
  6,456
  6,830
  7,220
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.077
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.213
  1.213
  1.212
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
Average production assets, $m
  267
  337
  399
  468
  543
  624
  711
  803
  901
  1,005
  1,114
  1,229
  1,348
  1,473
  1,603
  1,739
  1,880
  2,026
  2,179
  2,337
  2,502
  2,673
  2,850
  3,035
  3,228
  3,428
  3,636
  3,854
  4,080
  4,316
  4,563
Working capital, $m
  11
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Total debt, $m
  0
  490
  565
  648
  738
  835
  940
  1,051
  1,169
  1,294
  1,425
  1,562
  1,706
  1,857
  2,013
  2,176
  2,346
  2,522
  2,705
  2,896
  3,093
  3,299
  3,513
  3,735
  3,967
  4,207
  4,458
  4,720
  4,992
  5,276
  5,573
Total liabilities, $m
  429
  405
  480
  563
  653
  750
  855
  966
  1,084
  1,209
  1,340
  1,477
  1,621
  1,771
  1,928
  2,091
  2,261
  2,437
  2,620
  2,810
  3,008
  3,214
  3,428
  3,650
  3,881
  4,122
  4,373
  4,634
  4,907
  5,191
  5,487
Total equity, $m
  -13
  128
  152
  178
  206
  237
  270
  305
  342
  382
  423
  467
  512
  559
  609
  660
  714
  770
  827
  888
  950
  1,015
  1,082
  1,153
  1,226
  1,302
  1,381
  1,463
  1,550
  1,639
  1,733
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  416
  533
  632
  741
  859
  987
  1,125
  1,271
  1,426
  1,591
  1,763
  1,944
  2,133
  2,330
  2,537
  2,751
  2,975
  3,207
  3,447
  3,698
  3,958
  4,229
  4,510
  4,803
  5,107
  5,424
  5,754
  6,097
  6,457
  6,830
  7,220
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  3.830
  3.730
  3.650
  3.580
  3.530
  3.480
  3.450
  3.420
  3.390
  3.370
  3.350
  3.330
  3.320
  3.310
  3.300
  3.290
  3.280
  3.270
  3.260
  3.260
  3.250
  3.250
  3.240
  3.240
  3.230
  3.230
  3.220
  3.220
  3.220
  3.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.031
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  63
  64
  77
  90
  106
  122
  139
  158
  178
  199
  220
  245
  269
  294
  320
  347
  376
  405
  435
  467
  500
  534
  570
  607
  645
  685
  727
  770
  816
  863
  912
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  36
  43
  50
  57
  65
  74
  83
  93
  103
  114
  123
  135
  147
  160
  174
  188
  203
  218
  234
  250
  267
  285
  304
  323
  343
  364
  385
  408
  432
  456
Funds from operations, $m
  116
  100
  119
  140
  163
  187
  213
  241
  271
  302
  335
  368
  404
  442
  481
  521
  564
  608
  653
  701
  750
  801
  855
  910
  968
  1,028
  1,090
  1,156
  1,224
  1,294
  1,368
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  101
  100
  119
  140
  162
  187
  213
  241
  270
  301
  334
  368
  403
  441
  480
  521
  563
  607
  652
  700
  749
  800
  854
  909
  967
  1,027
  1,089
  1,154
  1,222
  1,293
  1,367
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -90
  -101
  -111
  -123
  -135
  -147
  -160
  -174
  -188
  -203
  -218
  -234
  -250
  -267
  -285
  -304
  -323
  -343
  -364
  -385
  -408
  -432
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -56
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -217
  -227
  -236
  -247
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -73
  -84
  -97
  -109
  -122
  -135
  -149
  -164
  -178
  -194
  -210
  -225
  -243
  -260
  -277
  -296
  -315
  -335
  -355
  -376
  -399
  -421
  -445
  -470
  -496
  -523
  -552
  -581
  -612
  -644
  -679
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  16
  23
  31
  41
  51
  64
  77
  92
  107
  124
  142
  161
  181
  202
  225
  248
  272
  297
  324
  351
  379
  409
  439
  471
  504
  538
  573
  610
  649
  689
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  315
  67
  75
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  131
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  67
  75
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  131
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  83
  98
  114
  131
  149
  168
  188
  210
  232
  256
  279
  305
  331
  359
  388
  417
  448
  481
  514
  549
  585
  622
  661
  702
  745
  789
  835
  883
  933
  985
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  2
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  61
  74
  88
  102
  118
  135
  153
  172
  193
  214
  236
  259
  284
  310
  336
  364
  393
  423
  454
  486
  520
  555
  591
  629
  668
  709
  752
  797
  843
  892
Discount rate, %
 
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  55
  60
  63
  65
  65
  63
  61
  57
  53
  47
  42
  36
  30
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Delek Logistics Partners, LP owns and operates logistics and marketing assets for crude oil, and intermediate and refined products. The Company's business primarily consists of certain crude oil, intermediate and refined products pipelines and transportation, storage, wholesale marketing, terminaling and offloading assets, which were previously owned, operated or held by Delek US Holdings, Inc. (Delek), and assets acquired from unrelated third parties. The Company operates through two segments: Pipelines and Transportation segment, and Wholesale Marketing and Terminalling segment. The Company engaged in the gathering, transporting and storing crude oil; storing intermediate products and feed stocks, and marketing, distributing, transporting, offloading and storing refined products. The Company also provides crude oil, intermediate and refined products transportation services for terminaling, and marketing services to third parties primarily in Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Delek Logistics Partners (DKL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.8
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book -52.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -24.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -45%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Return On Total Capital -525%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Return On Equity -525%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
EBITDA Margin 21.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Operating Margin 17.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 14.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 38.1%

DKL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DKL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $538 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Delek Logistics Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Delek Logistics Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DKL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.5%, whose default value for DKL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Delek Logistics Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Delek Logistics Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DKL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DKL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Delek Logistics Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Delek Logistics Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DKL stock is equal to 0.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DKL are equal to 52.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Delek Logistics Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DKL is equal to 0.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $106 million for Delek Logistics Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24 million for Delek Logistics Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Delek Logistics Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Delek US Holdings Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [May-07-18 08:40PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top MLP Gainers in the Week Ending November 24   [Nov-28-17 10:44AM  Market Realist]
▶ Delek Logistics Partners LP to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-09-17 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Delek US Holdings Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-08-17 09:55PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DKs Dividend Yield: Highest Valuation and Lowest Market Cap   [Sep-29-17 10:43AM  Market Realist]
▶ Leading MLP Losers in Week Ended September 8   [Sep-12-17 08:10AM  Market Realist]
▶ Delek US Holdings Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 05:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ALDW, DKL, HCLP: Last Weeks Key MLP Rating Updates   [Jul-10-17 03:13PM  Market Realist]
▶ These MLPs Took June in Stride   [Jul-07-17 09:09AM  Market Realist]
▶ Best Stocks For The Second Half of 2017   [Jul-03-17 11:43AM  Zacks]
▶ Alon USA Energy Stockholders Approve Merger Transaction   [Jun-28-17 06:21PM  PR Newswire]
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Financial statements of DKL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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