Intrinsic value of Dick's Sporting Goods - DKS

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$38.59

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.95
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  7,922
  8,013
  8,788
  9,598
  10,442
  11,320
  12,233
  13,183
  14,170
  15,196
  16,262
  17,370
  18,522
  19,720
  20,967
  22,264
  23,616
  25,024
  26,492
  28,024
  29,622
  31,290
  33,033
  34,854
  36,757
  38,747
  40,829
  43,008
  45,288
  47,676
  50,176
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,362
  8,072
  8,814
  9,587
  10,392
  11,229
  12,099
  13,003
  13,943
  14,920
  15,915
  16,970
  18,068
  19,210
  20,399
  21,638
  22,928
  24,273
  25,676
  27,141
  28,669
  30,266
  31,934
  33,678
  35,502
  37,409
  39,405
  41,495
  43,682
  45,973
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,472
  7,362
  8,072
  8,814
  9,587
  10,392
  11,229
  12,099
  13,003
  13,943
  14,920
  15,915
  16,970
  18,068
  19,210
  20,399
  21,638
  22,928
  24,273
  25,676
  27,141
  28,669
  30,266
  31,934
  33,678
  35,502
  37,409
  39,405
  41,495
  43,682
  45,973
Operating income, $m
  450
  651
  716
  784
  855
  928
  1,005
  1,084
  1,167
  1,253
  1,342
  1,455
  1,551
  1,652
  1,756
  1,865
  1,978
  2,096
  2,219
  2,347
  2,481
  2,621
  2,767
  2,919
  3,079
  3,246
  3,420
  3,603
  3,794
  3,994
  4,203
EBITDA, $m
  684
  858
  941
  1,028
  1,118
  1,212
  1,310
  1,411
  1,517
  1,627
  1,741
  1,860
  1,983
  2,111
  2,245
  2,384
  2,528
  2,679
  2,836
  3,000
  3,171
  3,350
  3,536
  3,731
  3,935
  4,148
  4,371
  4,604
  4,848
  5,104
  5,372
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  3
  92
  186
  285
  387
  494
  605
  721
  841
  965
  1,095
  1,230
  1,370
  1,515
  1,667
  1,825
  1,989
  2,160
  2,339
  2,525
  2,719
  2,922
  3,134
  3,355
  3,587
  3,829
  4,082
  4,346
  4,624
  4,914
Earnings before tax, $m
  458
  649
  624
  597
  570
  541
  510
  479
  446
  412
  377
  360
  322
  282
  241
  198
  153
  107
  59
  9
  -44
  -98
  -155
  -214
  -276
  -341
  -408
  -479
  -553
  -630
  -711
Tax expense, $m
  171
  175
  168
  161
  154
  146
  138
  129
  120
  111
  102
  97
  87
  76
  65
  53
  41
  29
  16
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  287
  473
  455
  436
  416
  395
  373
  350
  326
  301
  275
  263
  235
  206
  176
  145
  112
  78
  43
  6
  -44
  -98
  -155
  -214
  -276
  -341
  -408
  -479
  -553
  -630
  -711

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  165
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,058
  3,790
  4,157
  4,540
  4,939
  5,355
  5,787
  6,236
  6,703
  7,188
  7,692
  8,217
  8,761
  9,328
  9,918
  10,532
  11,171
  11,837
  12,532
  13,256
  14,012
  14,801
  15,626
  16,487
  17,387
  18,329
  19,314
  20,344
  21,423
  22,552
  23,735
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,893
  3,790
  4,157
  4,540
  4,939
  5,355
  5,787
  6,236
  6,703
  7,188
  7,692
  8,217
  8,761
  9,328
  9,918
  10,532
  11,171
  11,837
  12,532
  13,256
  14,012
  14,801
  15,626
  16,487
  17,387
  18,329
  19,314
  20,344
  21,423
  22,552
  23,735
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.035
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
  2.114
Average production assets, $m
  1,560
  1,530
  1,679
  1,833
  1,994
  2,162
  2,337
  2,518
  2,707
  2,902
  3,106
  3,318
  3,538
  3,766
  4,005
  4,252
  4,511
  4,780
  5,060
  5,353
  5,658
  5,976
  6,309
  6,657
  7,021
  7,401
  7,798
  8,214
  8,650
  9,106
  9,584
Working capital, $m
  599
  553
  606
  662
  720
  781
  844
  910
  978
  1,049
  1,122
  1,199
  1,278
  1,361
  1,447
  1,536
  1,629
  1,727
  1,828
  1,934
  2,044
  2,159
  2,279
  2,405
  2,536
  2,674
  2,817
  2,968
  3,125
  3,290
  3,462
Total debt, $m
  5
  184
  373
  570
  775
  988
  1,210
  1,441
  1,681
  1,931
  2,190
  2,459
  2,739
  3,031
  3,334
  3,649
  3,978
  4,320
  4,677
  5,050
  5,438
  5,844
  6,268
  6,710
  7,173
  7,657
  8,163
  8,693
  9,247
  9,828
  10,436
Total liabilities, $m
  2,129
  1,948
  2,137
  2,334
  2,539
  2,752
  2,974
  3,205
  3,445
  3,695
  3,954
  4,223
  4,503
  4,795
  5,098
  5,413
  5,742
  6,084
  6,441
  6,814
  7,202
  7,608
  8,032
  8,474
  8,937
  9,421
  9,927
  10,457
  11,011
  11,592
  12,200
Total equity, $m
  1,929
  1,842
  2,020
  2,207
  2,400
  2,602
  2,812
  3,031
  3,258
  3,493
  3,739
  3,993
  4,258
  4,534
  4,820
  5,118
  5,429
  5,753
  6,090
  6,443
  6,810
  7,193
  7,594
  8,013
  8,450
  8,908
  9,386
  9,887
  10,412
  10,960
  11,535
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,058
  3,790
  4,157
  4,541
  4,939
  5,354
  5,786
  6,236
  6,703
  7,188
  7,693
  8,216
  8,761
  9,329
  9,918
  10,531
  11,171
  11,837
  12,531
  13,257
  14,012
  14,801
  15,626
  16,487
  17,387
  18,329
  19,313
  20,344
  21,423
  22,552
  23,735
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.003
  0.100
  0.180
  0.260
  0.320
  0.380
  0.430
  0.480
  0.520
  0.550
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.453
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  287
  473
  455
  436
  416
  395
  373
  350
  326
  301
  275
  263
  235
  206
  176
  145
  112
  78
  43
  6
  -44
  -98
  -155
  -214
  -276
  -341
  -408
  -479
  -553
  -630
  -711
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  234
  207
  225
  244
  263
  284
  305
  327
  350
  374
  399
  405
  431
  459
  488
  519
  550
  583
  617
  653
  690
  729
  769
  812
  856
  903
  951
  1,002
  1,055
  1,110
  1,169
Funds from operations, $m
  1,017
  680
  680
  680
  679
  678
  678
  677
  676
  675
  674
  667
  666
  665
  664
  663
  662
  661
  660
  659
  646
  631
  614
  598
  580
  562
  543
  523
  502
  480
  458
Change in working capital, $m
  258
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
Cash from operations, $m
  759
  701
  627
  624
  621
  618
  615
  611
  608
  604
  600
  591
  587
  583
  578
  574
  569
  564
  559
  553
  536
  516
  494
  472
  449
  424
  399
  372
  345
  316
  285
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -169
  -187
  -205
  -224
  -243
  -264
  -285
  -307
  -330
  -354
  -379
  -405
  -431
  -459
  -488
  -519
  -550
  -583
  -617
  -653
  -690
  -729
  -769
  -812
  -856
  -903
  -951
  -1,002
  -1,055
  -1,110
New CAPEX, $m
  -432
  -145
  -148
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -416
  -436
  -456
  -478
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -550
  -314
  -335
  -360
  -385
  -411
  -438
  -466
  -496
  -526
  -558
  -591
  -625
  -660
  -697
  -736
  -777
  -819
  -863
  -909
  -958
  -1,009
  -1,062
  -1,117
  -1,176
  -1,236
  -1,301
  -1,367
  -1,438
  -1,511
  -1,588
Free cash flow, $m
  209
  387
  292
  265
  236
  207
  176
  145
  112
  78
  43
  1
  -38
  -78
  -119
  -163
  -208
  -255
  -305
  -356
  -422
  -493
  -567
  -645
  -727
  -812
  -901
  -995
  -1,093
  -1,195
  -1,303
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  179
  189
  197
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
  329
  342
  357
  372
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484
  506
  530
  554
  581
  608
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  22
  62
  103
  145
  190
  236
  285
  336
  401
  471
  544
  621
  702
  786
  874
  966
  1,063
  1,164
  1,270
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -95
  179
  189
  197
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
  302
  353
  406
  461
  519
  578
  642
  708
  790
  877
  968
  1,064
  1,165
  1,270
  1,380
  1,496
  1,617
  1,745
  1,878
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  114
  566
  481
  461
  441
  420
  399
  376
  352
  328
  302
  270
  242
  214
  184
  153
  121
  87
  52
  16
  -33
  -87
  -144
  -203
  -264
  -328
  -395
  -465
  -538
  -615
  -695
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -140
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -275
  -287
  -298
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -419
  -438
  -458
  -479
  -501
  -524
  -549
  -575
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  118
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  513
  302
  275
  247
  219
  189
  158
  125
  92
  57
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  492
  277
  240
  204
  169
  137
  106
  78
  53
  30
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.2
  98.2
  97.0
  95.5
  93.8
  91.9
  89.9
  87.6
  85.2
  82.6
  79.8
  77.0
  74.2
  71.2
  68.3
  65.4
  62.5
  59.6

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. operates as a sporting goods retailer primarily in the eastern United States. It provides hardlines, including sporting goods equipment, fitness equipment, golf equipment, and hunting and fishing gear products; apparel; and footwear products and accessories. The company also owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Field & Stream, Chelsea Collective, and True Runner specialty concept stores; and e-commerce Websites, such as DICKS.com, golfgalaxy.com, fieldandstreamshop.com, and caliastudio.com. As of January 28, 2017, it operated approximately 675 Dick's Sporting Goods stores, 73 Golf Galaxy stores, and 25 Field & Stream stores. The company was formerly known as Dick’s Clothing and Sporting Goods, Inc. and changed its name to Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. in April 1999. Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Coraopolis, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 13
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 165
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.2%
Total Debt to Equity 0.3%
Interest Coverage 93
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Total Capital 15.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Return On Equity 15.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 23.7%

DKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7271 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dick's Sporting Goods. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Dick's Sporting Goods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dick's Sporting Goods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dick's Sporting Goods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 50% for Dick's Sporting Goods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dick's Sporting Goods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DKS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DKS are equal to 19.1%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dick's Sporting Goods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DKS is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1789 million for Dick's Sporting Goods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.308 million for Dick's Sporting Goods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dick's Sporting Goods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.


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