Intrinsic value of China Distance Education Holdings ADR - DL

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$10.17

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$10.17

 
Intrinsic value

$97.41

 
Up/down potential

+858%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.26
  33.30
  30.47
  27.92
  25.63
  23.57
  21.71
  20.04
  18.54
  17.18
  15.96
  14.87
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.83
  10.24
  9.72
  9.25
  8.82
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
Revenue, $m
  118
  157
  205
  263
  330
  408
  496
  595
  706
  827
  959
  1,102
  1,255
  1,418
  1,590
  1,773
  1,965
  2,166
  2,377
  2,597
  2,826
  3,064
  3,312
  3,570
  3,838
  4,117
  4,406
  4,707
  5,020
  5,345
  5,684
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  110
  142
  181
  227
  279
  339
  407
  482
  564
  654
  747
  851
  962
  1,079
  1,203
  1,333
  1,470
  1,612
  1,762
  1,917
  2,079
  2,247
  2,422
  2,604
  2,793
  2,989
  3,193
  3,406
  3,626
  3,856
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
Total operating expenses, $m
  89
  116
  148
  187
  234
  286
  346
  414
  489
  571
  662
  755
  859
  970
  1,087
  1,212
  1,342
  1,479
  1,621
  1,772
  1,927
  2,089
  2,257
  2,433
  2,615
  2,804
  3,000
  3,205
  3,418
  3,638
  3,869
Operating income, $m
  29
  42
  57
  75
  97
  121
  150
  181
  217
  256
  298
  346
  395
  448
  503
  561
  623
  687
  755
  825
  899
  975
  1,055
  1,137
  1,223
  1,313
  1,406
  1,502
  1,602
  1,707
  1,815
EBITDA, $m
  33
  47
  63
  83
  105
  132
  161
  195
  232
  273
  318
  366
  418
  473
  531
  593
  658
  726
  797
  872
  949
  1,030
  1,114
  1,201
  1,292
  1,386
  1,484
  1,586
  1,692
  1,802
  1,916
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  93
  100
  108
  115
  123
  131
Earnings before tax, $m
  33
  42
  56
  73
  93
  116
  143
  172
  205
  241
  280
  325
  371
  419
  470
  525
  582
  641
  704
  769
  837
  907
  981
  1,057
  1,137
  1,219
  1,305
  1,394
  1,487
  1,584
  1,684
Tax expense, $m
  6
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  38
  46
  55
  65
  76
  88
  100
  113
  127
  142
  157
  173
  190
  208
  226
  245
  265
  286
  307
  329
  352
  377
  402
  428
  455
Net income, $m
  26
  30
  41
  53
  68
  85
  104
  126
  150
  176
  205
  238
  271
  306
  343
  383
  425
  468
  514
  561
  611
  662
  716
  772
  830
  890
  953
  1,018
  1,086
  1,156
  1,229

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  55
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  149
  125
  164
  209
  263
  325
  395
  474
  562
  659
  764
  878
  1,000
  1,130
  1,267
  1,413
  1,566
  1,726
  1,894
  2,069
  2,252
  2,442
  2,639
  2,845
  3,058
  3,280
  3,511
  3,751
  4,000
  4,259
  4,529
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  94
  125
  164
  209
  263
  325
  395
  474
  562
  659
  764
  878
  1,000
  1,130
  1,267
  1,413
  1,566
  1,726
  1,894
  2,069
  2,252
  2,442
  2,639
  2,845
  3,058
  3,280
  3,511
  3,751
  4,000
  4,259
  4,529
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.255
  1.256
  1.250
  1.258
  1.255
  1.255
  1.256
  1.255
  1.256
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
Average production assets, $m
  20
  27
  35
  44
  56
  69
  84
  101
  119
  140
  162
  186
  212
  240
  269
  300
  332
  366
  402
  439
  478
  518
  560
  603
  649
  696
  745
  796
  848
  903
  961
Working capital, $m
  -3
  -56
  -73
  -93
  -117
  -145
  -177
  -212
  -251
  -294
  -341
  -392
  -447
  -505
  -566
  -631
  -700
  -771
  -846
  -924
  -1,006
  -1,091
  -1,179
  -1,271
  -1,366
  -1,466
  -1,569
  -1,676
  -1,787
  -1,903
  -2,023
Total debt, $m
  16
  25
  59
  100
  149
  204
  268
  339
  418
  505
  600
  702
  812
  929
  1,053
  1,183
  1,321
  1,465
  1,616
  1,774
  1,938
  2,109
  2,287
  2,472
  2,665
  2,864
  3,072
  3,288
  3,512
  3,745
  3,988
Total liabilities, $m
  104
  113
  147
  188
  237
  292
  356
  427
  506
  593
  688
  790
  900
  1,017
  1,141
  1,271
  1,409
  1,553
  1,704
  1,862
  2,026
  2,197
  2,375
  2,560
  2,753
  2,952
  3,160
  3,376
  3,600
  3,833
  4,076
Total equity, $m
  45
  13
  16
  21
  26
  32
  40
  47
  56
  66
  76
  88
  100
  113
  127
  141
  157
  173
  189
  207
  225
  244
  264
  284
  306
  328
  351
  375
  400
  426
  453
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  149
  126
  163
  209
  263
  324
  396
  474
  562
  659
  764
  878
  1,000
  1,130
  1,268
  1,412
  1,566
  1,726
  1,893
  2,069
  2,251
  2,441
  2,639
  2,844
  3,059
  3,280
  3,511
  3,751
  4,000
  4,259
  4,529
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.356
  1.980
  3.620
  4.790
  5.650
  6.290
  6.770
  7.150
  7.440
  7.660
  7.850
  8.000
  8.120
  8.220
  8.310
  8.380
  8.440
  8.490
  8.540
  8.570
  8.610
  8.640
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.730
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.064
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  26
  30
  41
  53
  68
  85
  104
  126
  150
  176
  205
  238
  271
  306
  343
  383
  425
  468
  514
  561
  611
  662
  716
  772
  830
  890
  953
  1,018
  1,086
  1,156
  1,229
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  18
  20
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  36
  47
  61
  77
  95
  116
  139
  165
  193
  224
  257
  293
  331
  372
  415
  459
  507
  556
  607
  661
  717
  775
  835
  898
  963
  1,031
  1,102
  1,175
  1,251
  1,331
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
Cash from operations, $m
  39
  56
  64
  81
  101
  123
  147
  174
  204
  237
  271
  308
  347
  389
  433
  479
  528
  578
  631
  686
  743
  802
  863
  927
  994
  1,063
  1,134
  1,209
  1,286
  1,367
  1,451
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -95
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -152
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  47
  54
  68
  85
  104
  125
  149
  175
  204
  234
  267
  302
  339
  379
  420
  464
  509
  557
  606
  658
  711
  767
  825
  885
  947
  1,012
  1,080
  1,150
  1,223
  1,299
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  25
  34
  41
  48
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  102
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  243
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -35
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -32
  25
  34
  41
  48
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  102
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  243
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -33
  72
  88
  109
  133
  159
  188
  220
  254
  291
  329
  369
  412
  456
  503
  551
  601
  654
  708
  764
  822
  882
  945
  1,010
  1,077
  1,147
  1,220
  1,295
  1,374
  1,456
  1,541
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  46
  -7
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  105
  84
  104
  127
  153
  181
  212
  245
  281
  319
  358
  399
  443
  489
  537
  586
  638
  691
  746
  804
  863
  925
  989
  1,056
  1,125
  1,197
  1,271
  1,349
  1,430
  1,515
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  100
  77
  91
  105
  119
  132
  143
  153
  161
  167
  170
  170
  169
  164
  158
  149
  139
  127
  115
  102
  89
  77
  65
  54
  44
  35
  27
  21
  16
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

China Distance Education Holdings Limited provides online and offline education services, and sells related products in the People’s Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Online Education Services, Business Start-Up Training Services, and The Sale of Learning Simulation Software. The company offers online professional education services in accounting, healthcare, and engineering and construction industries; and other professional education courses, such as the national judicial examination, online test-preparation courses for self-taught learners pursuing higher education diplomas or degrees, test preparation courses for university students, and online language courses. Its online courses features pre-recorded audio-video lectures taught by experts; and other content, such as course outlines, exercise questions, mock exams, and frequently asked questions and answers. The company’s online lectures are supplemented by its proprietary Learning Management System, which tracks individual study progress, records course notes, and collects incorrectly answered questions. As of September 30, 2016, it operated 25 Websites, including its primary Website cdeledu.com. In addition, the company operates an Open Learning Platform, a proprietary education platform, which allows people to share their educational content and deliver live courses online; and sells proprietary books and reference materials. Further, it provides business start-up training courses to university students, job seekers, and individuals; offline accounting and healthcare professional training, courseware production, and online platform development services; and mobile accounting, engineering and construction, healthcare, and legal courses through an app on Android and Apple iOS tablets and smart phones, as well as engages in selling learning simulation software to the college market. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  China Distance Education Holdings ADR (DL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.5
Price to Sales 11.4
Price to Book 29.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 35.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Return On Total Capital 31%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
Return On Equity 38.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.8%
EBITDA Margin 31.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
Operating Margin 24.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 28%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Net Profit Margin 22%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Effective Tax Rate 18.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Payout Ratio 119.2%

DL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $118 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by China Distance Education Holdings ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of China Distance Education Holdings ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of China Distance Education Holdings ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of China Distance Education Holdings ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $6 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for China Distance Education Holdings ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for China Distance Education Holdings ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DL are equal to 16.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in China Distance Education Holdings ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DL is equal to -35.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $45 million for China Distance Education Holdings ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.581 million for China Distance Education Holdings ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of China Distance Education Holdings ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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Stock chart of DL Financial statements of DL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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