Intrinsic value of Dynagas LNG Partners - DLNG

Previous Close

$13.50

  Intrinsic Value

$10.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

  Value-price divergence*

+215%

Previous close

$13.50

 
Intrinsic value

$10.42

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+215%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DLNG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.24
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  170
  173
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  239
  248
  259
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  335
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
  532
  558
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  68
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
Operating income, $m
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
EBITDA, $m
  132
  140
  143
  147
  151
  155
  160
  166
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  296
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  429
  450
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  207
  216
  227
  238
  249
  261
Tax expense, $m
  0
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Net income, $m
  67
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,107
  1,070
  1,095
  1,123
  1,155
  1,190
  1,228
  1,270
  1,315
  1,364
  1,416
  1,472
  1,532
  1,596
  1,663
  1,735
  1,811
  1,892
  1,977
  2,067
  2,162
  2,262
  2,368
  2,479
  2,596
  2,720
  2,850
  2,987
  3,131
  3,283
  3,442
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,049
  1,070
  1,095
  1,123
  1,155
  1,190
  1,228
  1,270
  1,315
  1,364
  1,416
  1,472
  1,532
  1,596
  1,663
  1,735
  1,811
  1,892
  1,977
  2,067
  2,162
  2,262
  2,368
  2,479
  2,596
  2,720
  2,850
  2,987
  3,131
  3,283
  3,442
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
Average production assets, $m
  1,023
  1,043
  1,067
  1,094
  1,125
  1,159
  1,197
  1,237
  1,282
  1,329
  1,380
  1,435
  1,493
  1,555
  1,621
  1,691
  1,765
  1,843
  1,926
  2,014
  2,106
  2,204
  2,307
  2,416
  2,530
  2,650
  2,777
  2,911
  3,051
  3,199
  3,354
Working capital, $m
  7
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
Total debt, $m
  716
  698
  715
  734
  755
  779
  805
  833
  863
  896
  932
  969
  1,010
  1,053
  1,098
  1,146
  1,198
  1,252
  1,309
  1,370
  1,434
  1,502
  1,573
  1,648
  1,727
  1,810
  1,898
  1,990
  2,087
  2,190
  2,297
Total liabilities, $m
  739
  721
  738
  757
  778
  802
  828
  856
  886
  919
  955
  992
  1,033
  1,076
  1,121
  1,169
  1,221
  1,275
  1,332
  1,393
  1,457
  1,525
  1,596
  1,671
  1,750
  1,833
  1,921
  2,013
  2,110
  2,213
  2,320
Total equity, $m
  368
  349
  357
  366
  376
  388
  400
  414
  429
  445
  462
  480
  499
  520
  542
  566
  590
  617
  644
  674
  705
  737
  772
  808
  846
  887
  929
  974
  1,021
  1,070
  1,122
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,107
  1,070
  1,095
  1,123
  1,154
  1,190
  1,228
  1,270
  1,315
  1,364
  1,417
  1,472
  1,532
  1,596
  1,663
  1,735
  1,811
  1,892
  1,976
  2,067
  2,162
  2,262
  2,368
  2,479
  2,596
  2,720
  2,850
  2,987
  3,131
  3,283
  3,442
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.946
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.010
  2.010
  2.010
  2.010
  2.010
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.050
  2.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.296
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  35
  36
  36
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  275
  289
  303
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  104
  94
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -250
  -262
Free cash flow, $m
  67
  40
  38
  36
  35
  34
  33
  32
  31
  31
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  34
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  34
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  100
  54
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  73
  46
  46
  46
  46
  46
  46
  47
  48
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
Discount rate, %
 
  9.30
  9.77
  10.25
  10.77
  11.30
  11.87
  12.46
  13.09
  13.74
  14.43
  15.15
  15.91
  16.70
  17.54
  18.41
  19.33
  20.30
  21.32
  22.38
  23.50
  24.68
  25.91
  27.20
  28.57
  29.99
  31.49
  33.07
  34.72
  36.46
  38.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  67
  39
  34
  30
  27
  23
  20
  18
  15
  13
  10
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dynagas LNG Partners LP is a limited partnership, which focuses on owning and operating liquid natural gas (LNG) carriers. The Company's vessels are employed on multi-year time charters with international energy companies. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated a fleet of six LNG carriers, consisting of the three LNG carriers in its Initial Fleet, the Clean Energy, the Ob River and the Amur River, and three 2013-built Ice Class LNG carriers that the Company acquired from its Sponsor the Arctic Aurora, the Yenisei River, and the Lena River (collectively referred as its Fleet). The vessels in its Fleet have an average age of 6.6 years and are contracted under multi-year charters with Shell, Gazprom, Statoil and Yamal with an average remaining charter term, as of March 17, 2017, of approximately 10.6 years, including the charter agreements relating to the Yenisei River and the Lena River with Yamal. The Company's Fleet is managed by its manager, Dynagas Ltd.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dynagas LNG Partners (DLNG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.2
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -82%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 185.9%
Total Debt to Equity 194.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 18.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.2%
EBITDA Margin 57.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.8%
Operating Margin 60%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 39.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.8%
Net Profit Margin 39.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 100%

DLNG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DLNG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $170 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dynagas LNG Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dynagas LNG Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DLNG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.3%, whose default value for DLNG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dynagas LNG Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dynagas LNG Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DLNG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DLNG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dynagas LNG Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dynagas LNG Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DLNG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DLNG are equal to 601.5%.

Life of production assets of 34.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dynagas LNG Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DLNG is equal to -11.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $368 million for Dynagas LNG Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.04 million for Dynagas LNG Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dynagas LNG Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Buy Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG) At $13.96?   [Oct-07-17 04:59PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ A Look at Hoegh LNG Partners Financial Health after 2Q17   [Aug-28-17 07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ How Hoegh LNG Partners Dividends Rose over Time   [Aug-25-17 05:36PM  Market Realist]
▶ Highlights of Hoegh LNG Partners 2Q17 Results   [02:23PM  Market Realist]
▶ Will GasLog Partners 2017 EBITDA Rise?   [Jul-14-17 03:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Will Trump's America First Energy Plan Pump Up This IPO Leader?   [Mar-16-17 02:21PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Student Transportation Inc (STB) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-18-16 09:40AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Liquefied Natural Gas Carriers: Estimates and Recommendations   [Oct-28-16 02:28PM  at Market Realist]
▶ Analyst Has 3 MLPs to Buy Yielding Well More Than 9%   [Sep-19-16 10:40AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ 4 MLPs to Buy on Stifels Income List With Yields Up to 11.5%   [Sep-12-16 10:40AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Financial statements of DLNG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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