Intrinsic value of Dynagas LNG Partners - DLNG

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$15.14

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$15.14

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DLNG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.24
  35.50
  32.45
  29.71
  27.23
  25.01
  23.01
  21.21
  19.59
  18.13
  16.82
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.98
  11.28
  10.65
  10.09
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
Revenue, $m
  170
  196
  260
  338
  429
  537
  660
  800
  957
  1,131
  1,321
  1,527
  1,750
  1,988
  2,242
  2,510
  2,794
  3,091
  3,403
  3,729
  4,069
  4,423
  4,792
  5,176
  5,574
  5,989
  6,419
  6,867
  7,332
  7,815
  8,318
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  77
  102
  133
  169
  211
  260
  315
  376
  444
  519
  600
  688
  781
  881
  987
  1,098
  1,215
  1,337
  1,465
  1,599
  1,738
  1,883
  2,034
  2,191
  2,354
  2,523
  2,699
  2,881
  3,071
  3,269
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  68
  77
  102
  133
  169
  211
  260
  315
  376
  444
  519
  600
  688
  781
  881
  987
  1,098
  1,215
  1,337
  1,465
  1,599
  1,738
  1,883
  2,034
  2,191
  2,354
  2,523
  2,699
  2,881
  3,071
  3,269
Operating income, $m
  102
  119
  158
  205
  261
  326
  401
  486
  581
  686
  802
  927
  1,062
  1,207
  1,361
  1,524
  1,696
  1,876
  2,066
  2,263
  2,470
  2,685
  2,909
  3,142
  3,384
  3,635
  3,896
  4,168
  4,450
  4,744
  5,049
EBITDA, $m
  132
  162
  214
  278
  353
  442
  543
  659
  788
  930
  1,087
  1,257
  1,440
  1,636
  1,844
  2,065
  2,298
  2,543
  2,800
  3,068
  3,348
  3,639
  3,943
  4,258
  4,586
  4,927
  5,281
  5,649
  6,032
  6,430
  6,844
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  23
  32
  43
  56
  72
  91
  112
  136
  163
  193
  226
  262
  300
  341
  385
  431
  480
  532
  585
  642
  700
  762
  825
  891
  960
  1,032
  1,106
  1,183
  1,264
  1,347
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  96
  126
  162
  205
  254
  310
  374
  445
  523
  609
  701
  801
  907
  1,020
  1,139
  1,264
  1,396
  1,534
  1,678
  1,828
  1,985
  2,147
  2,316
  2,492
  2,675
  2,865
  3,062
  3,267
  3,480
  3,702
Tax expense, $m
  0
  26
  34
  44
  55
  69
  84
  101
  120
  141
  164
  189
  216
  245
  275
  307
  341
  377
  414
  453
  494
  536
  580
  625
  673
  722
  773
  827
  882
  940
  1,000
Net income, $m
  67
  70
  92
  118
  149
  185
  227
  273
  325
  382
  444
  512
  584
  662
  744
  831
  923
  1,019
  1,120
  1,225
  1,335
  1,449
  1,567
  1,691
  1,819
  1,953
  2,091
  2,235
  2,385
  2,541
  2,702

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,107
  1,466
  1,942
  2,519
  3,205
  4,006
  4,928
  5,974
  7,144
  8,439
  9,858
  11,399
  13,060
  14,838
  16,731
  18,734
  20,848
  23,068
  25,395
  27,827
  30,365
  33,010
  35,762
  38,624
  41,599
  44,691
  47,904
  51,243
  54,714
  58,324
  62,078
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,049
  1,466
  1,942
  2,519
  3,205
  4,006
  4,928
  5,974
  7,144
  8,439
  9,858
  11,399
  13,060
  14,838
  16,731
  18,734
  20,848
  23,068
  25,395
  27,827
  30,365
  33,010
  35,762
  38,624
  41,599
  44,691
  47,904
  51,243
  54,714
  58,324
  62,078
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.162
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
Average production assets, $m
  1,023
  1,272
  1,684
  2,185
  2,779
  3,475
  4,274
  5,181
  6,195
  7,319
  8,549
  9,886
  11,326
  12,868
  14,510
  16,247
  18,080
  20,006
  22,024
  24,133
  26,334
  28,627
  31,014
  33,496
  36,077
  38,758
  41,545
  44,441
  47,451
  50,581
  53,837
Working capital, $m
  7
  -30
  -40
  -51
  -65
  -82
  -100
  -122
  -146
  -172
  -201
  -232
  -266
  -302
  -341
  -382
  -425
  -470
  -517
  -567
  -618
  -672
  -728
  -787
  -847
  -910
  -976
  -1,044
  -1,114
  -1,188
  -1,264
Total debt, $m
  716
  909
  1,224
  1,605
  2,058
  2,588
  3,198
  3,889
  4,662
  5,518
  6,456
  7,475
  8,573
  9,748
  10,999
  12,323
  13,720
  15,188
  16,726
  18,334
  20,011
  21,759
  23,578
  25,470
  27,437
  29,481
  31,605
  33,812
  36,106
  38,492
  40,973
Total liabilities, $m
  739
  969
  1,284
  1,665
  2,118
  2,648
  3,258
  3,949
  4,722
  5,578
  6,516
  7,535
  8,633
  9,808
  11,059
  12,383
  13,780
  15,248
  16,786
  18,394
  20,071
  21,819
  23,638
  25,530
  27,497
  29,541
  31,665
  33,872
  36,166
  38,552
  41,033
Total equity, $m
  368
  497
  658
  854
  1,086
  1,358
  1,671
  2,025
  2,422
  2,861
  3,342
  3,864
  4,427
  5,030
  5,672
  6,351
  7,067
  7,820
  8,609
  9,433
  10,294
  11,190
  12,123
  13,093
  14,102
  15,150
  16,240
  17,372
  18,548
  19,772
  21,044
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,107
  1,466
  1,942
  2,519
  3,204
  4,006
  4,929
  5,974
  7,144
  8,439
  9,858
  11,399
  13,060
  14,838
  16,731
  18,734
  20,847
  23,068
  25,395
  27,827
  30,365
  33,009
  35,761
  38,623
  41,599
  44,691
  47,905
  51,244
  54,714
  58,324
  62,077
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.946
  1.830
  1.860
  1.880
  1.890
  1.910
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.296
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  70
  92
  118
  149
  185
  227
  273
  325
  382
  444
  512
  584
  662
  744
  831
  923
  1,019
  1,120
  1,225
  1,335
  1,449
  1,567
  1,691
  1,819
  1,953
  2,091
  2,235
  2,385
  2,541
  2,702
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  42
  56
  73
  93
  116
  142
  173
  207
  244
  285
  330
  378
  429
  484
  542
  603
  667
  734
  804
  878
  954
  1,034
  1,117
  1,203
  1,292
  1,385
  1,481
  1,582
  1,686
  1,795
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  113
  148
  191
  242
  301
  369
  446
  531
  626
  729
  841
  962
  1,091
  1,228
  1,373
  1,526
  1,686
  1,854
  2,029
  2,212
  2,403
  2,601
  2,807
  3,022
  3,245
  3,476
  3,717
  3,967
  4,227
  4,497
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -76
Cash from operations, $m
  104
  219
  158
  203
  256
  317
  388
  467
  555
  652
  758
  873
  996
  1,127
  1,267
  1,414
  1,569
  1,731
  1,901
  2,079
  2,264
  2,457
  2,657
  2,866
  3,082
  3,308
  3,541
  3,785
  4,037
  4,300
  4,574
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -42
  -56
  -73
  -93
  -116
  -142
  -173
  -207
  -244
  -285
  -330
  -378
  -429
  -484
  -542
  -603
  -667
  -734
  -804
  -878
  -954
  -1,034
  -1,117
  -1,203
  -1,292
  -1,385
  -1,481
  -1,582
  -1,686
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -333
  -413
  -500
  -595
  -695
  -800
  -906
  -1,015
  -1,123
  -1,231
  -1,337
  -1,441
  -1,542
  -1,641
  -1,738
  -1,833
  -1,926
  -2,018
  -2,109
  -2,201
  -2,293
  -2,387
  -2,482
  -2,580
  -2,682
  -2,787
  -2,896
  -3,010
  -3,130
  -3,256
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -364
  -455
  -556
  -668
  -788
  -916
  -1,048
  -1,188
  -1,330
  -1,475
  -1,622
  -1,771
  -1,920
  -2,070
  -2,222
  -2,375
  -2,529
  -2,685
  -2,843
  -3,005
  -3,171
  -3,341
  -3,516
  -3,697
  -3,885
  -4,079
  -4,281
  -4,491
  -4,712
  -4,942
Free cash flow, $m
  67
  -145
  -297
  -354
  -412
  -470
  -528
  -582
  -632
  -677
  -716
  -749
  -774
  -792
  -803
  -808
  -806
  -797
  -783
  -765
  -741
  -714
  -684
  -650
  -614
  -577
  -537
  -496
  -454
  -412
  -368
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  34
  253
  314
  381
  453
  530
  609
  691
  773
  856
  938
  1,019
  1,098
  1,175
  1,251
  1,325
  1,397
  1,468
  1,538
  1,608
  1,678
  1,748
  1,819
  1,892
  1,967
  2,044
  2,124
  2,207
  2,294
  2,386
  2,481
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  21
  144
  168
  191
  212
  231
  245
  256
  260
  259
  253
  239
  220
  194
  163
  125
  82
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  34
  274
  458
  549
  644
  742
  840
  936
  1,029
  1,116
  1,197
  1,272
  1,337
  1,395
  1,445
  1,488
  1,522
  1,550
  1,572
  1,608
  1,678
  1,748
  1,819
  1,892
  1,967
  2,044
  2,124
  2,207
  2,294
  2,386
  2,481
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  100
  108
  17
  28
  42
  59
  82
  109
  141
  179
  222
  270
  324
  383
  447
  517
  591
  671
  755
  843
  936
  1,034
  1,135
  1,242
  1,352
  1,467
  1,587
  1,711
  1,840
  1,974
  2,113
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -129
  -161
  -196
  -233
  -272
  -313
  -354
  -397
  -439
  -481
  -522
  -563
  -603
  -641
  -679
  -716
  -753
  -789
  -825
  -860
  -896
  -933
  -970
  -1,009
  -1,048
  -1,089
  -1,132
  -1,177
  -1,223
  -1,273
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  19
  76
  137
  202
  271
  344
  419
  498
  579
  663
  751
  841
Discount rate, %
 
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.2
  80.3
  68.4
  59.3
  52.3
  46.9
  42.6
  39.2
  36.6
  34.4
  32.7
  31.4
  30.4
  29.6
  29.0
  28.6
  28.4
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3

Dynagas LNG Partners LP, through its subsidiaries, operates in the seaborne transportation industry worldwide. The company owns and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels. As of March 31, 2016, its fleet consisted of six LNG carriers, each of which has a carrying capacity of approximately 150,000 to 155,000 cubic meters. Dynagas GP LLC serves as the general partner of Dynagas LNG Partners LP. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Monaco.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dynagas LNG Partners (DLNG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -82%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 185.9%
Total Debt to Equity 194.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 18.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.2%
EBITDA Margin 57.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.8%
Operating Margin 60%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 39.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.8%
Net Profit Margin 39.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 100%

DLNG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DLNG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $145 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dynagas LNG Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dynagas LNG Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DLNG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for DLNG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dynagas LNG Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dynagas LNG Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DLNG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DLNG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dynagas LNG Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dynagas LNG Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DLNG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DLNG are equal to 647.2%.

Life of production assets of 39.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dynagas LNG Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DLNG is equal to -15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $368 million for Dynagas LNG Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.569 million for Dynagas LNG Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dynagas LNG Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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Stock chart of DLNG Financial statements of DLNG Annual reports of DLNG
Valuation of Stocks

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