Intrinsic value of Duluth Holdings Cl B - DLTH

Previous Close

$19.25

  Intrinsic Value

$21.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+10%

  Value-price divergence*

-22%

Previous close

$19.25

 
Intrinsic value

$21.11

 
Up/down potential

+10%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-22%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DLTH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.68
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  376
  470
  578
  701
  838
  990
  1,156
  1,337
  1,531
  1,740
  1,962
  2,197
  2,444
  2,704
  2,977
  3,262
  3,560
  3,870
  4,192
  4,528
  4,876
  5,239
  5,615
  6,007
  6,413
  6,836
  7,276
  7,734
  8,211
  8,707
  9,225
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  425
  523
  633
  757
  895
  1,045
  1,208
  1,384
  1,573
  1,773
  1,986
  2,210
  2,445
  2,691
  2,949
  3,218
  3,498
  3,790
  4,093
  4,408
  4,736
  5,076
  5,430
  5,798
  6,180
  6,578
  6,992
  7,423
  7,872
  8,339
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  341
  425
  523
  633
  757
  895
  1,045
  1,208
  1,384
  1,573
  1,773
  1,986
  2,210
  2,445
  2,691
  2,949
  3,218
  3,498
  3,790
  4,093
  4,408
  4,736
  5,076
  5,430
  5,798
  6,180
  6,578
  6,992
  7,423
  7,872
  8,339
Operating income, $m
  35
  45
  55
  67
  80
  95
  111
  128
  147
  167
  188
  211
  235
  260
  286
  313
  342
  371
  402
  435
  468
  503
  539
  577
  616
  656
  699
  742
  788
  836
  886
EBITDA, $m
  40
  50
  61
  74
  89
  105
  122
  141
  162
  184
  207
  232
  258
  286
  315
  345
  376
  409
  443
  479
  515
  554
  594
  635
  678
  723
  769
  818
  868
  920
  975
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
Earnings before tax, $m
  35
  45
  55
  66
  79
  93
  108
  125
  143
  162
  183
  204
  227
  251
  276
  302
  330
  358
  388
  419
  451
  484
  519
  555
  593
  631
  672
  714
  758
  804
  851
Tax expense, $m
  13
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  171
  181
  193
  205
  217
  230
Net income, $m
  21
  33
  40
  48
  58
  68
  79
  91
  104
  118
  133
  149
  166
  183
  202
  221
  241
  262
  283
  306
  329
  354
  379
  405
  433
  461
  491
  521
  553
  587
  622

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  156
  165
  203
  246
  294
  348
  406
  469
  538
  611
  689
  771
  858
  950
  1,045
  1,145
  1,250
  1,359
  1,472
  1,590
  1,712
  1,839
  1,972
  2,109
  2,252
  2,400
  2,555
  2,716
  2,883
  3,057
  3,239
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  132
  165
  203
  246
  294
  348
  406
  469
  538
  611
  689
  771
  858
  950
  1,045
  1,145
  1,250
  1,359
  1,472
  1,590
  1,712
  1,839
  1,972
  2,109
  2,252
  2,400
  2,555
  2,716
  2,883
  3,057
  3,239
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.848
  2.848
  2.847
  2.850
  2.850
  2.845
  2.847
  2.851
  2.846
  2.848
  2.848
  2.850
  2.848
  2.846
  2.849
  2.849
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
  2.849
  2.847
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
  2.848
Average production assets, $m
  37
  46
  56
  68
  81
  96
  112
  130
  149
  169
  190
  213
  237
  262
  289
  316
  345
  375
  407
  439
  473
  508
  545
  583
  622
  663
  706
  750
  796
  845
  895
Working capital, $m
  66
  54
  66
  80
  96
  113
  132
  152
  175
  198
  224
  250
  279
  308
  339
  372
  406
  441
  478
  516
  556
  597
  640
  685
  731
  779
  830
  882
  936
  993
  1,052
Total debt, $m
  4
  14
  27
  41
  57
  75
  94
  115
  138
  162
  188
  216
  245
  275
  307
  340
  375
  411
  449
  488
  529
  572
  616
  661
  709
  758
  810
  863
  919
  977
  1,038
Total liabilities, $m
  45
  55
  68
  82
  98
  116
  135
  156
  179
  203
  229
  257
  286
  316
  348
  381
  416
  452
  490
  529
  570
  613
  657
  702
  750
  799
  851
  904
  960
  1,018
  1,079
Total equity, $m
  111
  110
  135
  164
  196
  232
  271
  313
  359
  407
  459
  514
  572
  633
  697
  764
  834
  906
  982
  1,060
  1,142
  1,227
  1,315
  1,407
  1,502
  1,601
  1,704
  1,811
  1,923
  2,039
  2,160
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  156
  165
  203
  246
  294
  348
  406
  469
  538
  610
  688
  771
  858
  949
  1,045
  1,145
  1,250
  1,358
  1,472
  1,589
  1,712
  1,840
  1,972
  2,109
  2,252
  2,400
  2,555
  2,715
  2,883
  3,057
  3,239
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.036
  0.130
  0.200
  0.250
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.659
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  33
  40
  48
  58
  68
  79
  91
  104
  118
  133
  149
  166
  183
  202
  221
  241
  262
  283
  306
  329
  354
  379
  405
  433
  461
  491
  521
  553
  587
  622
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
Funds from operations, $m
  11
  37
  46
  55
  66
  78
  90
  104
  119
  135
  152
  170
  189
  210
  230
  252
  275
  299
  324
  350
  377
  404
  433
  463
  495
  527
  561
  596
  633
  671
  711
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  27
  33
  41
  50
  60
  71
  84
  97
  112
  127
  144
  161
  180
  199
  220
  241
  264
  287
  311
  337
  363
  390
  419
  448
  479
  511
  544
  579
  615
  652
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  14
  18
  24
  30
  37
  46
  55
  65
  76
  89
  102
  116
  131
  147
  163
  181
  199
  218
  238
  259
  281
  303
  326
  351
  376
  402
  429
  457
  487
  517
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  60
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  60
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  25
  31
  38
  46
  55
  65
  76
  88
  101
  115
  129
  145
  161
  179
  197
  216
  235
  256
  278
  300
  323
  347
  372
  398
  425
  453
  483
  513
  545
  578
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  26
  6
  9
  14
  20
  26
  34
  42
  52
  63
  74
  87
  100
  115
  130
  146
  163
  181
  199
  218
  238
  259
  281
  303
  326
  350
  375
  402
  429
  457
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  25
  5
  8
  11
  15
  19
  23
  26
  30
  33
  35
  37
  38
  39
  38
  37
  35
  33
  31
  28
  25
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Duluth Holdings Inc. sells casual wear, workwear, and accessories for men and women under the Duluth Trading brand in the United States. It provides shirts, pants, underwear, outerwear, footwear, accessories, and hard goods. The company offers its products under various trademarks, trade names, and service marks, including Alaskan Hardgear, Armachillo, Ballroom, Bucket Master, Cab Commander, Crouch Gusset, Dry on the Fly, Duluth Trading Company, Duluthflex, Fire Hose, Longtail T, No Polo Shirt, Wild Boar Mocs, and Buck Naked. Duluth Holdings Inc. markets its products through its Website, catalogs, and retail stores. As of November 3, 2016, it operated 15 retail stores. The company was formerly known as GEMPLER’S, Inc. and changed its name to Duluth Holdings Inc. Duluth Holdings Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Belleville, Wisconsin.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Duluth Holdings Cl B (DLTH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.7
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -69.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 314.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 48.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 2.7%
Total Debt to Equity 3.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Return On Total Capital 20.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Return On Equity 21%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.2%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.9%
EBITDA Margin 10.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 37.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

DLTH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DLTH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $376 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Duluth Holdings Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Duluth Holdings Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DLTH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DLTH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Duluth Holdings Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Duluth Holdings Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DLTH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DLTH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Duluth Holdings Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Duluth Holdings Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DLTH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DLTH are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Duluth Holdings Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DLTH is equal to 11.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $111 million for Duluth Holdings Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.192 million for Duluth Holdings Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Duluth Holdings Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [10:10AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Duluth Holdings misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Jun-06-17 04:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Get a sneak peek inside Cincinnatis first Duluth Trading Co. store: PHOTOS (Video)   [May-18-17 03:20PM  American City Business Journals]
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▶ Duluth Holdings shares drop as outlook cut   [04:37PM  at MarketWatch]
Stock chart of DLTH Financial statements of DLTH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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