Intrinsic value of Dun&Bradstreet - DNB

Previous Close

$109.74

  Intrinsic Value

$11.60

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

  Value-price divergence*

-39%

Previous close

$109.74

 
Intrinsic value

$11.60

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-39%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DNB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.09
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,704
  1,738
  1,778
  1,824
  1,875
  1,932
  1,994
  2,062
  2,136
  2,215
  2,300
  2,391
  2,488
  2,591
  2,701
  2,818
  2,941
  3,072
  3,210
  3,356
  3,510
  3,673
  3,844
  4,025
  4,216
  4,417
  4,628
  4,850
  5,084
  5,331
  5,590
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,386
  1,416
  1,451
  1,490
  1,533
  1,580
  1,632
  1,688
  1,748
  1,813
  1,816
  1,890
  1,969
  2,052
  2,141
  2,234
  2,334
  2,439
  2,550
  2,667
  2,790
  2,921
  3,058
  3,203
  3,355
  3,516
  3,685
  3,863
  4,050
  4,247
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,441
  1,386
  1,416
  1,451
  1,490
  1,533
  1,580
  1,632
  1,688
  1,748
  1,813
  1,816
  1,890
  1,969
  2,052
  2,141
  2,234
  2,334
  2,439
  2,550
  2,667
  2,790
  2,921
  3,058
  3,203
  3,355
  3,516
  3,685
  3,863
  4,050
  4,247
Operating income, $m
  262
  352
  362
  373
  385
  399
  414
  430
  448
  467
  487
  574
  598
  623
  649
  677
  707
  738
  771
  806
  843
  882
  924
  967
  1,013
  1,061
  1,112
  1,165
  1,222
  1,281
  1,343
EBITDA, $m
  331
  446
  456
  468
  481
  495
  511
  529
  548
  568
  590
  613
  638
  665
  693
  723
  754
  788
  823
  861
  900
  942
  986
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,187
  1,244
  1,304
  1,367
  1,434
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  56
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  127
Earnings before tax, $m
  204
  297
  358
  368
  379
  390
  404
  418
  433
  450
  467
  551
  572
  593
  616
  640
  666
  693
  722
  752
  784
  818
  854
  891
  931
  972
  1,016
  1,063
  1,111
  1,162
  1,216
Tax expense, $m
  100
  80
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  149
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  241
  251
  263
  274
  287
  300
  314
  328
Net income, $m
  97
  217
  261
  269
  276
  285
  295
  305
  316
  328
  341
  403
  417
  433
  450
  467
  486
  506
  527
  549
  572
  597
  623
  651
  679
  710
  742
  776
  811
  848
  888

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  354
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,209
  1,891
  1,935
  1,984
  2,040
  2,102
  2,170
  2,244
  2,324
  2,410
  2,503
  2,602
  2,707
  2,820
  2,939
  3,066
  3,200
  3,342
  3,493
  3,652
  3,820
  3,997
  4,183
  4,380
  4,587
  4,806
  5,036
  5,278
  5,532
  5,800
  6,082
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,855
  1,891
  1,935
  1,984
  2,040
  2,102
  2,170
  2,244
  2,324
  2,410
  2,503
  2,602
  2,707
  2,820
  2,939
  3,066
  3,200
  3,342
  3,493
  3,652
  3,820
  3,997
  4,183
  4,380
  4,587
  4,806
  5,036
  5,278
  5,532
  5,800
  6,082
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
Average production assets, $m
  450
  459
  469
  481
  495
  510
  526
  544
  564
  585
  607
  631
  657
  684
  713
  744
  776
  811
  847
  886
  927
  970
  1,015
  1,063
  1,113
  1,166
  1,222
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
  1,476
Working capital, $m
  -66
  -405
  -414
  -425
  -437
  -450
  -465
  -480
  -498
  -516
  -536
  -557
  -580
  -604
  -629
  -656
  -685
  -716
  -748
  -782
  -818
  -856
  -896
  -938
  -982
  -1,029
  -1,078
  -1,130
  -1,185
  -1,242
  -1,302
Total debt, $m
  1,617
  108
  147
  192
  242
  298
  359
  426
  498
  575
  658
  747
  842
  944
  1,051
  1,165
  1,286
  1,414
  1,550
  1,693
  1,844
  2,003
  2,171
  2,348
  2,535
  2,731
  2,938
  3,156
  3,385
  3,626
  3,880
Total liabilities, $m
  3,211
  1,702
  1,741
  1,786
  1,836
  1,892
  1,953
  2,020
  2,092
  2,169
  2,252
  2,341
  2,436
  2,538
  2,645
  2,759
  2,880
  3,008
  3,144
  3,287
  3,438
  3,597
  3,765
  3,942
  4,129
  4,325
  4,532
  4,750
  4,979
  5,220
  5,474
Total equity, $m
  -1,002
  189
  193
  198
  204
  210
  217
  224
  232
  241
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  349
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,209
  1,891
  1,934
  1,984
  2,040
  2,102
  2,170
  2,244
  2,324
  2,410
  2,502
  2,601
  2,707
  2,820
  2,939
  3,066
  3,200
  3,342
  3,493
  3,652
  3,820
  3,997
  4,183
  4,380
  4,588
  4,806
  5,036
  5,278
  5,532
  5,800
  6,082
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.614
  0.570
  0.760
  0.970
  1.190
  1.420
  1.650
  1.900
  2.140
  2.390
  2.630
  2.870
  3.110
  3.350
  3.580
  3.800
  4.020
  4.230
  4.440
  4.630
  4.830
  5.010
  5.190
  5.360
  5.530
  5.680
  5.830
  5.980
  6.120
  6.250
  6.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.719
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  97
  217
  261
  269
  276
  285
  295
  305
  316
  328
  341
  403
  417
  433
  450
  467
  486
  506
  527
  549
  572
  597
  623
  651
  679
  710
  742
  776
  811
  848
  888
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  93
  94
  95
  96
  96
  97
  99
  100
  101
  102
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
Funds from operations, $m
  305
  310
  355
  363
  372
  382
  392
  404
  416
  429
  444
  441
  458
  475
  493
  513
  534
  556
  579
  603
  629
  657
  685
  716
  748
  781
  817
  854
  893
  935
  978
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Cash from operations, $m
  323
  318
  365
  374
  384
  395
  407
  419
  433
  448
  463
  462
  480
  499
  519
  540
  562
  586
  611
  637
  665
  694
  725
  758
  792
  828
  866
  906
  948
  992
  1,039
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -58
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
Free cash flow, $m
  265
  281
  326
  333
  341
  349
  359
  369
  380
  392
  405
  401
  416
  431
  448
  466
  484
  504
  525
  547
  570
  595
  621
  648
  677
  707
  739
  772
  808
  845
  884
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -203
  -1,486
  39
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  44
  1,306
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -154
  -180
  39
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  58
  101
  365
  378
  391
  405
  420
  436
  452
  470
  488
  490
  511
  533
  556
  580
  605
  632
  660
  690
  721
  754
  789
  825
  863
  903
  946
  990
  1,037
  1,086
  1,138
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -115
  -1,522
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  331
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1,090
  361
  373
  385
  399
  413
  428
  444
  461
  479
  480
  500
  521
  544
  567
  592
  618
  645
  674
  704
  736
  770
  805
  843
  882
  923
  966
  1,011
  1,059
  1,109
Discount rate, %
 
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.83
  16.62
  17.45
  18.32
  19.24
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.78
  27.07
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.55
  36.27
  38.09
  39.99
  41.99
  44.09
  46.29
  48.61
  51.04
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -970
  283
  254
  225
  198
  171
  146
  123
  101
  82
  63
  50
  38
  29
  21
  15
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation is the source of commercial data, analytics and insight on businesses. The Company operates through two segments: Americas, which consists of its operations in the United States and Canada, and Non-Americas, which consists of its operations in the United Kingdom, Greater China, India, and its European and Asia Pacific Worldwide Networks. The Company provides Risk Management Solutions and Sales and Marketing Solutions. The Company provides DNBi and D&B Credit that are subscription-based online applications, which offers customers real time access to its complete and up-to-date global information, monitoring and portfolio analysis. The Company provides D&B Optimizer solution, which transforms its customers' prospects and data into up-to-date, actionable commercial insight, facilitating a single customer view across multiple systems and touch points, such as marketing and billing databases, and enables a customer to make sales and marketing decisions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dun&Bradstreet (DNB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41.6
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book -4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 15
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -159.1%
Total Debt to Equity -161.4%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Total Capital 14.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Return On Equity -9.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.1%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Operating Margin 15.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Effective Tax Rate 49%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Payout Ratio 73.2%

DNB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DNB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1704 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dun&Bradstreet. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dun&Bradstreet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DNB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.4%, whose default value for DNB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dun&Bradstreet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dun&Bradstreet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DNB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DNB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dun&Bradstreet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dun&Bradstreet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DNB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DNB are equal to 26.4%.

Life of production assets of 16.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dun&Bradstreet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DNB is equal to -23.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1002 million for Dun&Bradstreet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.04 million for Dun&Bradstreet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dun&Bradstreet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Dun & Bradstreet tops 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Dun & Bradstreet Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-10-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ The Many Rewards of Paying Bills Late   [02:53PM  Bloomberg]
▶ Dun & Bradstreet beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-01-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ 9 Small-Cap Stocks With Wide Moats   [Apr-12-17 06:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Gartner to replace Dun & Bradstreet on S&P 500   [Mar-29-17 06:32PM  MarketWatch]
▶ The Biggest Loser: Dun & Bradstreet Tumbles 17%   [Feb-09-17 04:27PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Dun & Bradstreet Reports 2016 Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Dun & Bradstreet Buys Data Provider Avention for $150 Million   [Jan-11-17 07:53AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of DNB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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