Intrinsic value of Dorman Products - DORM

Previous Close

$69.42

  Intrinsic Value

$68.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-2%

  Value-price divergence*

+81%

Previous close

$69.42

 
Intrinsic value

$68.25

 
Up/down potential

-2%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+81%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DORM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.10
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  860
  921
  985
  1,050
  1,119
  1,190
  1,265
  1,342
  1,423
  1,507
  1,594
  1,686
  1,781
  1,881
  1,985
  2,094
  2,207
  2,326
  2,451
  2,581
  2,717
  2,860
  3,010
  3,166
  3,331
  3,503
  3,683
  3,872
  4,071
  4,279
  4,497
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  550
  588
  627
  668
  711
  755
  801
  849
  899
  952
  1,006
  1,063
  1,123
  1,185
  1,250
  1,318
  1,389
  1,463
  1,541
  1,622
  1,707
  1,797
  1,890
  1,988
  2,091
  2,199
  2,312
  2,430
  2,554
  2,685
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  382
Total operating expenses, $m
  691
  737
  779
  823
  869
  917
  966
  1,017
  1,071
  1,126
  1,185
  1,245
  1,308
  1,374
  1,442
  1,514
  1,588
  1,666
  1,747
  1,832
  1,920
  2,013
  2,110
  2,211
  2,317
  2,428
  2,545
  2,666
  2,793
  2,926
  3,067
Operating income, $m
  169
  185
  206
  227
  250
  274
  299
  325
  352
  380
  410
  441
  473
  507
  543
  580
  619
  661
  704
  749
  797
  847
  900
  955
  1,013
  1,074
  1,138
  1,206
  1,277
  1,352
  1,430
EBITDA, $m
  188
  205
  227
  251
  275
  300
  327
  354
  383
  413
  445
  478
  512
  549
  587
  626
  668
  712
  758
  806
  857
  910
  966
  1,025
  1,087
  1,152
  1,220
  1,292
  1,367
  1,446
  1,530
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Earnings before tax, $m
  168
  185
  205
  227
  249
  273
  297
  323
  349
  377
  407
  437
  469
  503
  538
  575
  614
  655
  697
  742
  789
  839
  891
  945
  1,003
  1,063
  1,127
  1,193
  1,264
  1,338
  1,415
Tax expense, $m
  62
  50
  55
  61
  67
  74
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  166
  177
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  271
  287
  304
  322
  341
  361
  382
Net income, $m
  106
  135
  150
  166
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  276
  297
  319
  343
  367
  393
  420
  448
  478
  509
  542
  576
  612
  650
  690
  732
  776
  822
  871
  922
  976
  1,033

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  149
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  712
  603
  644
  687
  732
  779
  828
  878
  931
  986
  1,043
  1,103
  1,166
  1,231
  1,299
  1,370
  1,445
  1,522
  1,604
  1,689
  1,778
  1,872
  1,970
  2,072
  2,180
  2,292
  2,410
  2,534
  2,664
  2,800
  2,943
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  563
  603
  644
  687
  732
  779
  828
  878
  931
  986
  1,043
  1,103
  1,166
  1,231
  1,299
  1,370
  1,445
  1,522
  1,604
  1,689
  1,778
  1,872
  1,970
  2,072
  2,180
  2,292
  2,410
  2,534
  2,664
  2,800
  2,943
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.528
  1.527
  1.530
  1.528
  1.529
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.529
  1.527
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.527
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
  1.528
Average production assets, $m
  118
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  272
  287
  302
  319
  336
  354
  372
  392
  412
  434
  456
  480
  505
  531
  558
  586
  616
Working capital, $m
  448
  321
  343
  366
  389
  414
  440
  467
  495
  524
  555
  587
  620
  654
  691
  729
  768
  810
  853
  898
  946
  995
  1,047
  1,102
  1,159
  1,219
  1,282
  1,348
  1,417
  1,489
  1,565
Total debt, $m
  0
  8
  16
  24
  33
  42
  51
  61
  72
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  143
  157
  172
  187
  203
  219
  237
  255
  274
  294
  315
  337
  360
  384
  409
  436
  464
Total liabilities, $m
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  182
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  253
  267
  282
  297
  313
  329
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
  494
  519
  546
  574
Total equity, $m
  602
  485
  519
  553
  590
  627
  666
  707
  750
  794
  840
  888
  938
  991
  1,046
  1,103
  1,163
  1,226
  1,291
  1,360
  1,432
  1,507
  1,586
  1,668
  1,755
  1,845
  1,940
  2,040
  2,145
  2,254
  2,369
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  712
  603
  645
  687
  733
  779
  827
  878
  932
  986
  1,043
  1,103
  1,165
  1,231
  1,299
  1,370
  1,445
  1,523
  1,604
  1,689
  1,779
  1,872
  1,970
  2,072
  2,180
  2,292
  2,410
  2,534
  2,664
  2,800
  2,943
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805
  0.805

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  106
  135
  150
  166
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  276
  297
  319
  343
  367
  393
  420
  448
  478
  509
  542
  576
  612
  650
  690
  732
  776
  822
  871
  922
  976
  1,033
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
Funds from operations, $m
  120
  155
  172
  189
  207
  225
  245
  265
  287
  309
  332
  356
  382
  409
  437
  466
  497
  529
  563
  599
  636
  675
  717
  760
  806
  853
  904
  957
  1,012
  1,071
  1,132
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
Cash from operations, $m
  122
  134
  150
  166
  183
  201
  219
  238
  258
  280
  302
  325
  349
  374
  400
  428
  457
  488
  520
  553
  589
  626
  665
  706
  748
  794
  841
  891
  943
  999
  1,057
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
Free cash flow, $m
  96
  106
  120
  135
  150
  166
  183
  200
  218
  237
  256
  277
  298
  321
  345
  369
  395
  423
  451
  481
  513
  546
  581
  618
  656
  696
  739
  784
  831
  880
  932
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  70
  114
  129
  143
  159
  175
  192
  210
  228
  247
  267
  289
  311
  334
  358
  383
  410
  438
  467
  498
  530
  564
  600
  638
  677
  718
  762
  808
  856
  907
  960
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -84
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  149
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  231
  95
  109
  123
  138
  153
  169
  186
  203
  221
  240
  260
  281
  303
  326
  350
  375
  402
  429
  459
  489
  521
  555
  590
  628
  667
  708
  751
  797
  845
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  221
  87
  95
  101
  107
  111
  114
  116
  117
  116
  114
  111
  107
  102
  96
  89
  82
  74
  66
  58
  51
  43
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dorman Products, Inc. is a supplier of replacement parts and fasteners for passenger cars, light trucks and heavy duty trucks in the automotive aftermarket. As of December 31, 2016, the Company distributed and marketed approximately 155,000 different stock keeping units (SKU's) of automotive replacement parts and fasteners. As of December 31, 2016, approximately 83% of its products were sold under brands that it owned and the remainder of its products were sold for resale under customers' private labels, other brands or in bulk. Its products are sold in the United States through automotive aftermarket retailers, national, regional and local warehouse distributors, and specialty markets, and salvage yards. It also distributes automotive replacement parts outside the United States, with sales primarily into Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Middle East, and Australia. Its parts are marketed under the OE Solutions, TECHoice, AutoGrade, Conduct-Tite, FirstStop and HD Solutions brand names.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dorman Products (DORM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.6
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Return On Total Capital 18.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Return On Equity 18.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.6%
EBITDA Margin 21.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Net Profit Margin 12.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

DORM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DORM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $860 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dorman Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dorman Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DORM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DORM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dorman Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dorman Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DORM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 59.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $182 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DORM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dorman Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dorman Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DORM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DORM are equal to 13.7%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dorman Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DORM is equal to 34.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $602 million for Dorman Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.322 million for Dorman Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dorman Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Dorman Products Churns Out Steady Growth   [Aug-02-17 11:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Dorman Products misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-01-17 10:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Dorman Products, Inc. Announces Organizational Changes   [Jun-08-17 05:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Dorman Products Gets a Lift on New Parts   [May-02-17 10:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Dorman Products tops 1Q profit forecasts   [07:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dorman Products Finishes 2016 Strong   [09:23AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Dorman Products Finishes 2016 Strong   [09:23AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Dorman Products tops Street 4Q forecasts   [07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Dorman Products Inc. (DORM)?   [Nov-24-16 12:28PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Dorman Products Looks Forward to a Brighter Future   [Oct-25-16 09:06PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Dorman Products Keeps Delivering the Goods   [Apr-27-16 11:14AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Dorman Products Keeps Delivering the Goods   [11:14AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of DORM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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