Intrinsic value of Diplomat Pharmacy - DPLO

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$15.08

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DPLO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.98
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  4,410
  4,776
  5,157
  5,552
  5,964
  6,391
  6,835
  7,297
  7,777
  8,276
  8,795
  9,336
  9,900
  10,487
  11,099
  11,738
  12,405
  13,101
  13,828
  14,588
  15,382
  16,213
  17,083
  17,992
  18,944
  19,942
  20,986
  22,080
  23,226
  24,428
  25,687
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,707
  5,079
  5,466
  5,869
  6,287
  6,722
  7,174
  7,643
  8,132
  8,641
  9,139
  9,690
  10,265
  10,864
  11,490
  12,142
  12,823
  13,535
  14,279
  15,057
  15,870
  16,721
  17,611
  18,543
  19,519
  20,541
  21,612
  22,734
  23,910
  25,143
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,363
  4,707
  5,079
  5,466
  5,869
  6,287
  6,722
  7,174
  7,643
  8,132
  8,641
  9,139
  9,690
  10,265
  10,864
  11,490
  12,142
  12,823
  13,535
  14,279
  15,057
  15,870
  16,721
  17,611
  18,543
  19,519
  20,541
  21,612
  22,734
  23,910
  25,143
Operating income, $m
  47
  69
  78
  86
  95
  104
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  381
  401
  423
  445
  468
  492
  518
  544
EBITDA, $m
  97
  127
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  233
  248
  262
  278
  294
  311
  329
  347
  367
  387
  408
  430
  453
  477
  502
  529
  556
  585
  616
  648
  681
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  133
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
Tax expense, $m
  11
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
Net income, $m
  28
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,099
  1,182
  1,276
  1,374
  1,475
  1,581
  1,691
  1,805
  1,924
  2,047
  2,176
  2,310
  2,449
  2,595
  2,746
  2,904
  3,069
  3,241
  3,421
  3,609
  3,806
  4,011
  4,226
  4,451
  4,687
  4,934
  5,192
  5,463
  5,746
  6,043
  6,355
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,091
  1,182
  1,276
  1,374
  1,475
  1,581
  1,691
  1,805
  1,924
  2,047
  2,176
  2,310
  2,449
  2,595
  2,746
  2,904
  3,069
  3,241
  3,421
  3,609
  3,806
  4,011
  4,226
  4,451
  4,687
  4,934
  5,192
  5,463
  5,746
  6,043
  6,355
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.042
  4.041
  4.042
  4.041
  4.043
  4.042
  4.042
  4.043
  4.042
  4.043
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.041
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
  4.042
Average production assets, $m
  256
  277
  299
  322
  346
  371
  396
  423
  451
  480
  510
  542
  574
  608
  644
  681
  719
  760
  802
  846
  892
  940
  991
  1,044
  1,099
  1,157
  1,217
  1,281
  1,347
  1,417
  1,490
Working capital, $m
  120
  172
  186
  200
  215
  230
  246
  263
  280
  298
  317
  336
  356
  378
  400
  423
  447
  472
  498
  525
  554
  584
  615
  648
  682
  718
  755
  795
  836
  879
  925
Total debt, $m
  147
  179
  220
  263
  307
  354
  402
  452
  504
  558
  614
  673
  734
  797
  864
  933
  1,005
  1,081
  1,159
  1,242
  1,328
  1,418
  1,512
  1,611
  1,714
  1,822
  1,935
  2,054
  2,178
  2,308
  2,445
Total liabilities, $m
  486
  518
  559
  602
  646
  693
  741
  791
  843
  897
  953
  1,012
  1,073
  1,136
  1,203
  1,272
  1,344
  1,420
  1,498
  1,581
  1,667
  1,757
  1,851
  1,950
  2,053
  2,161
  2,274
  2,393
  2,517
  2,647
  2,784
Total equity, $m
  613
  664
  717
  772
  829
  889
  950
  1,015
  1,081
  1,151
  1,223
  1,298
  1,376
  1,458
  1,543
  1,632
  1,725
  1,822
  1,923
  2,028
  2,139
  2,254
  2,375
  2,502
  2,634
  2,773
  2,918
  3,070
  3,229
  3,396
  3,572
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,099
  1,182
  1,276
  1,374
  1,475
  1,582
  1,691
  1,806
  1,924
  2,048
  2,176
  2,310
  2,449
  2,594
  2,746
  2,904
  3,069
  3,242
  3,421
  3,609
  3,806
  4,011
  4,226
  4,452
  4,687
  4,934
  5,192
  5,463
  5,746
  6,043
  6,356
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.270
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.400
  0.420
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  28
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  124
  130
  137
Funds from operations, $m
  -34
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  349
  367
  386
  405
  426
  447
  470
Change in working capital, $m
  -65
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  91
  97
  104
  110
  118
  125
  132
  140
  149
  157
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
  348
  366
  385
  404
  425
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -86
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -194
  -203
Free cash flow, $m
  -55
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  33
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  4
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  44
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -20
  90
  92
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  138
  146
  153
  162
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  281
  295
  309
  325
  341
  358
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -101
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  39
  39
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  37
  36
  36
  37
  37
  37
  37
  37
  36
  35
  30
  29
  27
  26
  24
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4

Diplomat Pharmacy, Inc. operates as an independent specialty pharmacy in the United States. The company stocks, dispenses, and distributes prescriptions for various biotechnology and specialty pharmaceutical manufacturers. It also provides specialty infusion pharmacy, patient care coordination, clinical, compliance and persistency program, patient financial assistance, specialty pharmacy training/consulting, benefits investigation, prior authorization, risk evaluation and medication strategy, retail specialty, and hub services, as well as clinical and administrative support services to hospitals and health systems. The company’s primary focus is on medication management programs for individuals with complex chronic diseases, including oncology, immunology, hepatitis, multiple sclerosis, specialized infusion therapy, and various other serious or long-term conditions. Diplomat Pharmacy, Inc. has 16 pharmacy locations in Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Flint, Michigan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diplomat Pharmacy (DPLO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 83.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 16.3%
Total Debt to Equity 24%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Asset Turnover 4.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 7.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
EBITDA Margin 2.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Operating Margin 1.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 0%

DPLO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DPLO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4410 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diplomat Pharmacy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Diplomat Pharmacy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DPLO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DPLO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diplomat Pharmacy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diplomat Pharmacy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DPLO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DPLO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Diplomat Pharmacy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diplomat Pharmacy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DPLO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DPLO are equal to 5.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diplomat Pharmacy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DPLO is equal to 3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $613 million for Diplomat Pharmacy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.749 million for Diplomat Pharmacy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diplomat Pharmacy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Healthcare Stocks for Ambitious Investors   [Jun-15-17 04:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Jeff Park Elected to Diplomat Board of Directors   [Jun-08-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Diplomat Pharmaceuticals posts 1Q profit   [04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Diplomat Acquires WRB Communications   [04:10PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Diplomat Promotes Executive Jennifer Cretu   [Apr-13-17 05:10PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Diplomat Appoints New Chief Financial Officer   [Apr-11-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Top Specialty Pharma Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Apr-02-17 02:01PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Diplomat Pharmacy's Shares Are Soaring Today -- But Why?   [Mar-01-17 04:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Diplomat Pharmacy, Inc. Q4 Earnings Hurt by Hep-C Headwinds   [Feb-28-17 07:02PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Diplomat Completes Acquisition of Affinity Biotech   [Feb-01-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Diplomat Publishes Report on Specialty Drug Approvals   [Jan-24-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of DPLO Financial statements of DPLO Annual reports of DPLO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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