Intrinsic value of Domino's Pizza - DPZ

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$179.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$179.30

 
Intrinsic value

$24.22

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DPZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.55
  11.50
  10.85
  10.27
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  2,473
  2,757
  3,057
  3,370
  3,699
  4,041
  4,398
  4,770
  5,157
  5,559
  5,977
  6,411
  6,863
  7,332
  7,820
  8,327
  8,855
  9,404
  9,976
  10,572
  11,194
  11,842
  12,518
  13,224
  13,962
  14,732
  15,538
  16,380
  17,261
  18,182
  19,147
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,239
  2,482
  2,736
  3,002
  3,280
  3,570
  3,872
  4,186
  4,512
  4,851
  5,202
  5,568
  5,949
  6,345
  6,756
  7,184
  7,630
  8,094
  8,578
  9,082
  9,608
  10,157
  10,730
  11,328
  11,953
  12,607
  13,290
  14,005
  14,752
  15,535
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,019
  2,249
  2,493
  2,747
  3,013
  3,291
  3,582
  3,884
  4,198
  4,524
  4,864
  5,215
  5,581
  5,963
  6,359
  6,770
  7,199
  7,645
  8,110
  8,594
  9,098
  9,625
  10,174
  10,748
  11,346
  11,972
  12,626
  13,309
  14,025
  14,772
  15,556
Operating income, $m
  454
  508
  565
  623
  685
  749
  817
  886
  959
  1,035
  1,113
  1,196
  1,281
  1,369
  1,461
  1,556
  1,656
  1,759
  1,866
  1,978
  2,095
  2,217
  2,344
  2,477
  2,616
  2,761
  2,912
  3,071
  3,236
  3,410
  3,591
EBITDA, $m
  492
  548
  608
  672
  738
  807
  879
  954
  1,032
  1,113
  1,197
  1,285
  1,376
  1,471
  1,569
  1,671
  1,778
  1,889
  2,004
  2,124
  2,250
  2,381
  2,517
  2,660
  2,808
  2,964
  3,127
  3,297
  3,474
  3,661
  3,855
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  75
  9
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
Earnings before tax, $m
  345
  433
  555
  612
  671
  732
  796
  863
  933
  1,005
  1,080
  1,160
  1,241
  1,325
  1,413
  1,504
  1,599
  1,697
  1,800
  1,907
  2,019
  2,136
  2,257
  2,384
  2,517
  2,655
  2,800
  2,952
  3,110
  3,276
  3,450
Tax expense, $m
  130
  117
  150
  165
  181
  198
  215
  233
  252
  271
  292
  313
  335
  358
  381
  406
  432
  458
  486
  515
  545
  577
  609
  644
  680
  717
  756
  797
  840
  885
  931
Net income, $m
  215
  316
  405
  446
  490
  534
  581
  630
  681
  734
  788
  846
  906
  967
  1,031
  1,098
  1,167
  1,239
  1,314
  1,392
  1,474
  1,559
  1,648
  1,740
  1,837
  1,938
  2,044
  2,155
  2,270
  2,392
  2,518

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  716
  750
  832
  917
  1,006
  1,100
  1,197
  1,298
  1,403
  1,513
  1,626
  1,745
  1,867
  1,995
  2,128
  2,266
  2,409
  2,559
  2,715
  2,877
  3,046
  3,222
  3,406
  3,598
  3,799
  4,009
  4,228
  4,457
  4,697
  4,948
  5,210
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  673
  750
  832
  917
  1,006
  1,100
  1,197
  1,298
  1,403
  1,513
  1,626
  1,745
  1,867
  1,995
  2,128
  2,266
  2,409
  2,559
  2,715
  2,877
  3,046
  3,222
  3,406
  3,598
  3,799
  4,009
  4,228
  4,457
  4,697
  4,948
  5,210
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.675
  3.676
  3.674
  3.675
  3.677
  3.674
  3.674
  3.675
  3.676
  3.674
  3.676
  3.674
  3.676
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.676
  3.675
  3.674
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
Average production assets, $m
  170
  190
  211
  233
  255
  279
  303
  329
  356
  384
  412
  442
  474
  506
  540
  575
  611
  649
  688
  729
  772
  817
  864
  912
  963
  1,017
  1,072
  1,130
  1,191
  1,255
  1,321
Working capital, $m
  92
  99
  110
  121
  133
  145
  158
  172
  186
  200
  215
  231
  247
  264
  282
  300
  319
  339
  359
  381
  403
  426
  451
  476
  503
  530
  559
  590
  621
  655
  689
Total debt, $m
  2,188
  264
  338
  414
  495
  579
  666
  757
  852
  950
  1,053
  1,159
  1,270
  1,385
  1,504
  1,628
  1,758
  1,892
  2,032
  2,178
  2,330
  2,489
  2,655
  2,828
  3,008
  3,197
  3,394
  3,600
  3,816
  4,042
  4,278
Total liabilities, $m
  2,599
  675
  749
  825
  906
  990
  1,077
  1,168
  1,263
  1,361
  1,464
  1,570
  1,681
  1,796
  1,915
  2,039
  2,169
  2,303
  2,443
  2,589
  2,741
  2,900
  3,066
  3,239
  3,419
  3,608
  3,805
  4,011
  4,227
  4,453
  4,689
Total equity, $m
  -1,883
  75
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  151
  163
  174
  187
  200
  213
  227
  241
  256
  271
  288
  305
  322
  341
  360
  380
  401
  423
  446
  470
  495
  521
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  716
  750
  832
  917
  1,007
  1,100
  1,197
  1,298
  1,403
  1,512
  1,627
  1,744
  1,868
  1,996
  2,128
  2,266
  2,410
  2,559
  2,714
  2,877
  3,046
  3,222
  3,407
  3,599
  3,799
  4,009
  4,228
  4,457
  4,697
  4,948
  5,210
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.162
  3.520
  4.060
  4.520
  4.920
  5.260
  5.570
  5.830
  6.070
  6.280
  6.470
  6.640
  6.800
  6.940
  7.070
  7.190
  7.290
  7.390
  7.490
  7.570
  7.650
  7.720
  7.790
  7.860
  7.920
  7.970
  8.030
  8.080
  8.120
  8.170
  8.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  -2.862
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  316
  405
  446
  490
  534
  581
  630
  681
  734
  788
  846
  906
  967
  1,031
  1,098
  1,167
  1,239
  1,314
  1,392
  1,474
  1,559
  1,648
  1,740
  1,837
  1,938
  2,044
  2,155
  2,270
  2,392
  2,518
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  88
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  173
  182
  193
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
Funds from operations, $m
  347
  356
  449
  495
  542
  592
  644
  697
  754
  812
  872
  935
  1,000
  1,068
  1,139
  1,213
  1,289
  1,369
  1,452
  1,538
  1,628
  1,722
  1,821
  1,923
  2,030
  2,142
  2,259
  2,381
  2,509
  2,642
  2,782
Change in working capital, $m
  60
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  287
  355
  438
  483
  530
  579
  631
  684
  740
  797
  857
  919
  984
  1,051
  1,122
  1,194
  1,270
  1,349
  1,431
  1,517
  1,606
  1,699
  1,796
  1,898
  2,003
  2,114
  2,230
  2,350
  2,477
  2,609
  2,748
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -182
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -226
  -238
  -251
New CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -318
Free cash flow, $m
  286
  300
  380
  419
  461
  505
  550
  598
  647
  698
  752
  807
  864
  924
  987
  1,051
  1,119
  1,189
  1,262
  1,338
  1,417
  1,500
  1,586
  1,676
  1,770
  1,868
  1,971
  2,078
  2,190
  2,307
  2,430
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -59
  -1,885
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -285
  3,542
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -302
  1,657
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  -1,584
  453
  496
  542
  589
  638
  689
  742
  797
  854
  913
  975
  1,039
  1,106
  1,176
  1,248
  1,323
  1,402
  1,484
  1,569
  1,659
  1,752
  1,849
  1,951
  2,057
  2,168
  2,284
  2,406
  2,533
  2,667
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  83
  -1,962
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  445
  488
  533
  579
  628
  679
  731
  786
  843
  901
  963
  1,027
  1,093
  1,162
  1,234
  1,309
  1,386
  1,468
  1,553
  1,641
  1,733
  1,830
  1,931
  2,036
  2,146
  2,261
  2,382
  2,508
  2,640
Discount rate, %
 
  14.60
  15.33
  16.10
  16.90
  17.75
  18.63
  19.57
  20.54
  21.57
  22.65
  23.78
  24.97
  26.22
  27.53
  28.91
  30.35
  31.87
  33.46
  35.14
  36.89
  38.74
  40.68
  42.71
  44.84
  47.09
  49.44
  51.91
  54.51
  57.23
  60.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  334
  312
  285
  256
  225
  194
  164
  136
  109
  86
  66
  50
  36
  26
  18
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Domino’s Pizza, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pizza delivery company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Domestic Stores, Supply Chain, and International Franchise. The company offers pizzas under the Domino’s Pizza brand name through company-owned and franchised Domino’s Pizza stores. As of December 7, 2016, it operated approximately 13,200 stores in 80 international markets. The company was founded in 1960 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.1
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book -4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity -114.1%
Total Debt to Equity -116.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 28.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
Return On Total Capital 57.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.6%
Return On Equity -11.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.5%
Asset Turnover 3.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Pre-Tax Margin 14%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 34.4%

DPZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DPZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2473 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Domino's Pizza. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Domino's Pizza. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DPZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.6%, whose default value for DPZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Domino's Pizza, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Domino's Pizza.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DPZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DPZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Domino's Pizza.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Domino's Pizza. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DPZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DPZ are equal to 6.9%.

Life of production assets of 4.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Domino's Pizza operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DPZ is equal to 3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1883 million for Domino's Pizza - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.074 million for Domino's Pizza is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Domino's Pizza at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.6 billion.


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Stock chart of DPZ Financial statements of DPZ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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