Intrinsic value of Domino's Pizza - DPZ

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$207.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$207.05

 
Intrinsic value

$28.42

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DPZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.55
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
Revenue, $m
  2,473
  2,864
  3,285
  3,737
  4,218
  4,728
  5,266
  5,831
  6,424
  7,044
  7,691
  8,365
  9,067
  9,796
  10,555
  11,344
  12,163
  13,015
  13,900
  14,820
  15,778
  16,774
  17,810
  18,890
  20,016
  21,189
  22,413
  23,690
  25,023
  26,416
  27,871
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,325
  2,667
  3,034
  3,424
  3,837
  4,274
  4,733
  5,214
  5,717
  6,241
  6,787
  7,356
  7,948
  8,564
  9,204
  9,869
  10,560
  11,278
  12,024
  12,801
  13,609
  14,451
  15,327
  16,240
  17,192
  18,185
  19,221
  20,302
  21,432
  22,613
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,019
  2,335
  2,678
  3,045
  3,435
  3,848
  4,286
  4,745
  5,226
  5,729
  6,254
  6,800
  7,369
  7,962
  8,578
  9,218
  9,884
  10,575
  11,294
  12,040
  12,817
  13,626
  14,468
  15,345
  16,258
  17,211
  18,204
  19,240
  20,322
  21,452
  22,634
Operating income, $m
  454
  528
  608
  693
  783
  879
  980
  1,087
  1,198
  1,315
  1,436
  1,565
  1,697
  1,834
  1,977
  2,125
  2,280
  2,440
  2,607
  2,780
  2,960
  3,147
  3,343
  3,546
  3,758
  3,979
  4,209
  4,450
  4,701
  4,963
  5,237
EBITDA, $m
  492
  570
  655
  746
  843
  946
  1,054
  1,169
  1,288
  1,414
  1,544
  1,680
  1,822
  1,969
  2,123
  2,282
  2,448
  2,620
  2,798
  2,984
  3,178
  3,379
  3,588
  3,807
  4,034
  4,271
  4,518
  4,776
  5,046
  5,327
  5,621
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  75
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  129
  138
  148
  157
  167
  178
  189
  200
  212
Earnings before tax, $m
  345
  453
  597
  679
  765
  857
  954
  1,056
  1,162
  1,274
  1,390
  1,513
  1,640
  1,771
  1,908
  2,049
  2,197
  2,350
  2,509
  2,675
  2,847
  3,027
  3,213
  3,408
  3,610
  3,822
  4,042
  4,272
  4,512
  4,763
  5,025
Tax expense, $m
  130
  122
  161
  183
  207
  231
  258
  285
  314
  344
  375
  409
  443
  478
  515
  553
  593
  635
  678
  722
  769
  817
  868
  920
  975
  1,032
  1,091
  1,153
  1,218
  1,286
  1,357
Net income, $m
  215
  331
  436
  496
  559
  626
  696
  771
  849
  930
  1,015
  1,105
  1,197
  1,293
  1,392
  1,496
  1,604
  1,716
  1,832
  1,953
  2,079
  2,209
  2,346
  2,488
  2,636
  2,790
  2,951
  3,118
  3,294
  3,477
  3,668

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  716
  779
  894
  1,017
  1,148
  1,286
  1,433
  1,587
  1,748
  1,917
  2,093
  2,276
  2,467
  2,666
  2,872
  3,087
  3,310
  3,541
  3,782
  4,033
  4,293
  4,564
  4,846
  5,140
  5,446
  5,766
  6,099
  6,446
  6,809
  7,188
  7,584
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  673
  779
  894
  1,017
  1,148
  1,286
  1,433
  1,587
  1,748
  1,917
  2,093
  2,276
  2,467
  2,666
  2,872
  3,087
  3,310
  3,541
  3,782
  4,033
  4,293
  4,564
  4,846
  5,140
  5,446
  5,766
  6,099
  6,446
  6,809
  7,188
  7,584
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.675
  3.677
  3.674
  3.675
  3.674
  3.677
  3.675
  3.674
  3.675
  3.674
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.674
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.676
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
  3.675
Average production assets, $m
  170
  198
  227
  258
  291
  326
  363
  402
  443
  486
  531
  577
  626
  676
  728
  783
  839
  898
  959
  1,023
  1,089
  1,157
  1,229
  1,303
  1,381
  1,462
  1,546
  1,635
  1,727
  1,823
  1,923
Working capital, $m
  92
  103
  118
  135
  152
  170
  190
  210
  231
  254
  277
  301
  326
  353
  380
  408
  438
  469
  500
  534
  568
  604
  641
  680
  721
  763
  807
  853
  901
  951
  1,003
Total debt, $m
  2,188
  290
  394
  504
  622
  747
  879
  1,017
  1,162
  1,314
  1,472
  1,638
  1,809
  1,988
  2,174
  2,367
  2,568
  2,776
  2,993
  3,218
  3,453
  3,697
  3,951
  4,215
  4,491
  4,778
  5,078
  5,391
  5,717
  6,058
  6,414
Total liabilities, $m
  2,599
  701
  805
  915
  1,033
  1,158
  1,290
  1,428
  1,573
  1,725
  1,883
  2,049
  2,220
  2,399
  2,585
  2,778
  2,979
  3,187
  3,404
  3,629
  3,864
  4,108
  4,362
  4,626
  4,902
  5,189
  5,489
  5,802
  6,128
  6,469
  6,825
Total equity, $m
  -1,883
  78
  89
  102
  115
  129
  143
  159
  175
  192
  209
  228
  247
  267
  287
  309
  331
  354
  378
  403
  429
  456
  485
  514
  545
  577
  610
  645
  681
  719
  758
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  716
  779
  894
  1,017
  1,148
  1,287
  1,433
  1,587
  1,748
  1,917
  2,092
  2,277
  2,467
  2,666
  2,872
  3,087
  3,310
  3,541
  3,782
  4,032
  4,293
  4,564
  4,847
  5,140
  5,447
  5,766
  6,099
  6,447
  6,809
  7,188
  7,583
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.162
  3.730
  4.400
  4.960
  5.420
  5.810
  6.130
  6.410
  6.650
  6.860
  7.040
  7.190
  7.330
  7.460
  7.570
  7.670
  7.760
  7.840
  7.910
  7.980
  8.040
  8.100
  8.150
  8.200
  8.250
  8.290
  8.330
  8.360
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  -2.862
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  331
  436
  496
  559
  626
  696
  771
  849
  930
  1,015
  1,105
  1,197
  1,293
  1,392
  1,496
  1,604
  1,716
  1,832
  1,953
  2,079
  2,209
  2,346
  2,488
  2,636
  2,790
  2,951
  3,118
  3,294
  3,477
  3,668
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
  115
  125
  135
  146
  157
  168
  180
  192
  205
  218
  231
  246
  261
  276
  292
  309
  327
  345
  365
  385
Funds from operations, $m
  347
  372
  483
  549
  619
  693
  771
  853
  939
  1,029
  1,123
  1,220
  1,322
  1,428
  1,538
  1,653
  1,772
  1,895
  2,024
  2,157
  2,296
  2,441
  2,591
  2,748
  2,912
  3,082
  3,260
  3,445
  3,639
  3,841
  4,053
Change in working capital, $m
  60
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
Cash from operations, $m
  287
  367
  468
  532
  601
  674
  751
  832
  918
  1,007
  1,099
  1,196
  1,297
  1,402
  1,511
  1,624
  1,742
  1,865
  1,992
  2,124
  2,262
  2,405
  2,554
  2,709
  2,871
  3,040
  3,216
  3,399
  3,591
  3,791
  4,000
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -40
  -45
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -73
  -80
  -89
  -97
  -106
  -115
  -125
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -180
  -192
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -246
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -309
  -327
  -345
  -365
New CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -85
  -93
  -102
  -112
  -121
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -163
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -227
  -241
  -256
  -271
  -287
  -303
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -397
  -419
  -441
  -465
Free cash flow, $m
  286
  305
  399
  456
  516
  581
  649
  721
  796
  875
  958
  1,043
  1,133
  1,226
  1,323
  1,424
  1,529
  1,638
  1,751
  1,869
  1,991
  2,119
  2,251
  2,389
  2,533
  2,683
  2,839
  3,002
  3,172
  3,350
  3,535
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -59
  -1,859
  103
  111
  118
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  276
  287
  300
  313
  327
  341
  356
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -285
  3,514
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -302
  1,655
  103
  111
  118
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  276
  287
  300
  313
  327
  341
  356
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  -1,553
  503
  567
  634
  706
  781
  859
  941
  1,027
  1,116
  1,208
  1,305
  1,405
  1,509
  1,617
  1,730
  1,846
  1,968
  2,094
  2,226
  2,363
  2,505
  2,654
  2,808
  2,970
  3,139
  3,315
  3,499
  3,691
  3,892
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  83
  -1,965
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  491
  554
  621
  692
  766
  844
  925
  1,010
  1,098
  1,190
  1,286
  1,385
  1,488
  1,596
  1,707
  1,823
  1,944
  2,069
  2,200
  2,335
  2,477
  2,624
  2,778
  2,938
  3,105
  3,280
  3,462
  3,653
  3,852
Discount rate, %
 
  14.60
  15.33
  16.10
  16.90
  17.75
  18.63
  19.57
  20.54
  21.57
  22.65
  23.78
  24.97
  26.22
  27.53
  28.91
  30.35
  31.87
  33.46
  35.14
  36.89
  38.74
  40.68
  42.71
  44.84
  47.09
  49.44
  51.91
  54.51
  57.23
  60.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  369
  354
  333
  306
  275
  242
  208
  174
  143
  114
  89
  67
  49
  35
  25
  17
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Domino’s Pizza, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pizza delivery company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Domestic Stores, Supply Chain, and International Franchise. The company offers pizzas under the Domino’s Pizza brand name through company-owned and franchised Domino’s Pizza stores. As of December 7, 2016, it operated approximately 13,200 stores in 80 international markets. The company was founded in 1960 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 46.3
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book -5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 43.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity -114.1%
Total Debt to Equity -116.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 28.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
Return On Total Capital 57.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.6%
Return On Equity -11.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.5%
Asset Turnover 3.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Pre-Tax Margin 14%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 34.4%

DPZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DPZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2473 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Domino's Pizza. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Domino's Pizza. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DPZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.6%, whose default value for DPZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Domino's Pizza, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Domino's Pizza.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DPZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DPZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Domino's Pizza.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Domino's Pizza. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DPZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DPZ are equal to 6.9%.

Life of production assets of 4.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Domino's Pizza operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DPZ is equal to 3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1883 million for Domino's Pizza - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.702 million for Domino's Pizza is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Domino's Pizza at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.3 billion.


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▶ Why Analysts Say Hold for Dominos Stock ahead of Q1 Earnings   [Apr-25-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
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▶ Facebooks F8 Conference: What to Expect?   [07:09AM  Investopedia]
▶ Domino's Pizza® Announces Q1 2017 Earnings Webcast   [Apr-14-17 08:56PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Domino's® Opens 14,000th Store Worldwide   [Apr-12-17 07:07AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Funds' New Stock Buys: Chips, Pizza, Movies   [02:47PM  Investor's Business Daily]
Stock chart of DPZ Financial statements of DPZ Annual reports of DPZ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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