Intrinsic value of Darden Restaurants - DRI

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$88.73

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$88.73

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DRI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.51
  2.10
  2.39
  2.65
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,934
  7,080
  7,249
  7,441
  7,656
  7,893
  8,152
  8,434
  8,739
  9,067
  9,418
  9,794
  10,195
  10,621
  11,074
  11,554
  12,063
  12,601
  13,170
  13,771
  14,406
  15,075
  15,781
  16,525
  17,309
  18,134
  19,003
  19,918
  20,880
  21,892
  22,957
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6,695
  6,853
  7,033
  7,233
  7,455
  7,697
  7,960
  8,244
  8,550
  8,879
  9,142
  9,516
  9,914
  10,336
  10,785
  11,259
  11,762
  12,293
  12,854
  13,447
  14,072
  14,730
  15,425
  16,157
  16,927
  17,738
  18,592
  19,490
  20,435
  21,429
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,311
  6,695
  6,853
  7,033
  7,233
  7,455
  7,697
  7,960
  8,244
  8,550
  8,879
  9,142
  9,516
  9,914
  10,336
  10,785
  11,259
  11,762
  12,293
  12,854
  13,447
  14,072
  14,730
  15,425
  16,157
  16,927
  17,738
  18,592
  19,490
  20,435
  21,429
Operating income, $m
  622
  384
  395
  408
  422
  438
  456
  474
  495
  516
  540
  652
  679
  707
  737
  769
  803
  839
  877
  917
  959
  1,004
  1,051
  1,100
  1,152
  1,207
  1,265
  1,326
  1,390
  1,458
  1,528
EBITDA, $m
  912
  705
  722
  741
  762
  786
  812
  840
  870
  903
  938
  975
  1,015
  1,058
  1,103
  1,151
  1,201
  1,255
  1,311
  1,371
  1,435
  1,501
  1,572
  1,646
  1,724
  1,806
  1,892
  1,983
  2,079
  2,180
  2,286
Interest expense (income), $m
  141
  65
  73
  83
  94
  106
  119
  134
  149
  167
  185
  205
  226
  248
  272
  298
  325
  353
  383
  415
  449
  485
  522
  562
  604
  648
  694
  743
  794
  848
  905
Earnings before tax, $m
  450
  319
  322
  325
  329
  333
  337
  341
  345
  350
  355
  447
  453
  459
  465
  472
  478
  486
  493
  501
  510
  519
  528
  538
  548
  559
  571
  583
  596
  609
  623
Tax expense, $m
  90
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  91
  92
  93
  94
  96
  121
  122
  124
  126
  127
  129
  131
  133
  135
  138
  140
  143
  145
  148
  151
  154
  157
  161
  164
  168
Net income, $m
  375
  233
  235
  237
  240
  243
  246
  249
  252
  255
  259
  327
  331
  335
  339
  344
  349
  355
  360
  366
  372
  379
  386
  393
  400
  408
  417
  426
  435
  445
  455

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  275
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,583
  4,397
  4,502
  4,622
  4,755
  4,902
  5,064
  5,239
  5,428
  5,632
  5,850
  6,083
  6,332
  6,597
  6,878
  7,176
  7,492
  7,827
  8,180
  8,553
  8,948
  9,363
  9,802
  10,264
  10,751
  11,264
  11,803
  12,371
  12,969
  13,598
  14,259
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,308
  4,397
  4,502
  4,622
  4,755
  4,902
  5,064
  5,239
  5,428
  5,632
  5,850
  6,083
  6,332
  6,597
  6,878
  7,176
  7,492
  7,827
  8,180
  8,553
  8,948
  9,363
  9,802
  10,264
  10,751
  11,264
  11,803
  12,371
  12,969
  13,598
  14,259
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
Average production assets, $m
  3,275
  3,342
  3,421
  3,512
  3,614
  3,725
  3,848
  3,981
  4,125
  4,280
  4,445
  4,623
  4,812
  5,013
  5,227
  5,453
  5,694
  5,948
  6,216
  6,500
  6,799
  7,115
  7,449
  7,800
  8,170
  8,559
  8,970
  9,401
  9,855
  10,333
  10,836
Working capital, $m
  -367
  -658
  -674
  -692
  -712
  -734
  -758
  -784
  -813
  -843
  -876
  -911
  -948
  -988
  -1,030
  -1,075
  -1,122
  -1,172
  -1,225
  -1,281
  -1,340
  -1,402
  -1,468
  -1,537
  -1,610
  -1,686
  -1,767
  -1,852
  -1,942
  -2,036
  -2,135
Total debt, $m
  440
  496
  560
  633
  714
  804
  903
  1,010
  1,125
  1,250
  1,383
  1,526
  1,678
  1,840
  2,011
  2,194
  2,387
  2,591
  2,807
  3,035
  3,276
  3,530
  3,798
  4,080
  4,378
  4,691
  5,021
  5,368
  5,733
  6,117
  6,521
Total liabilities, $m
  2,631
  2,687
  2,751
  2,824
  2,905
  2,995
  3,094
  3,201
  3,316
  3,441
  3,574
  3,717
  3,869
  4,031
  4,202
  4,385
  4,578
  4,782
  4,998
  5,226
  5,467
  5,721
  5,989
  6,271
  6,569
  6,882
  7,212
  7,559
  7,924
  8,308
  8,712
Total equity, $m
  1,952
  1,711
  1,751
  1,798
  1,850
  1,907
  1,970
  2,038
  2,111
  2,191
  2,276
  2,366
  2,463
  2,566
  2,676
  2,792
  2,914
  3,045
  3,182
  3,327
  3,481
  3,642
  3,813
  3,993
  4,182
  4,382
  4,591
  4,812
  5,045
  5,290
  5,547
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,583
  4,398
  4,502
  4,622
  4,755
  4,902
  5,064
  5,239
  5,427
  5,632
  5,850
  6,083
  6,332
  6,597
  6,878
  7,177
  7,492
  7,827
  8,180
  8,553
  8,948
  9,363
  9,802
  10,264
  10,751
  11,264
  11,803
  12,371
  12,969
  13,598
  14,259
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.225
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.390
  0.420
  0.460
  0.500
  0.530
  0.570
  0.610
  0.640
  0.680
  0.720
  0.750
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  375
  233
  235
  237
  240
  243
  246
  249
  252
  255
  259
  327
  331
  335
  339
  344
  349
  355
  360
  366
  372
  379
  386
  393
  400
  408
  417
  426
  435
  445
  455
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  290
  321
  326
  333
  340
  348
  356
  366
  376
  386
  398
  323
  336
  351
  366
  381
  398
  416
  435
  455
  475
  498
  521
  545
  571
  599
  627
  657
  689
  723
  758
Funds from operations, $m
  806
  554
  562
  570
  580
  590
  602
  614
  628
  642
  657
  650
  667
  685
  705
  726
  747
  770
  795
  821
  848
  876
  906
  938
  972
  1,007
  1,044
  1,083
  1,124
  1,167
  1,213
Change in working capital, $m
  28
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
Cash from operations, $m
  778
  -15
  577
  588
  600
  613
  626
  641
  656
  672
  690
  685
  704
  725
  747
  770
  795
  821
  848
  876
  907
  939
  972
  1,007
  1,045
  1,084
  1,125
  1,168
  1,214
  1,261
  1,312
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -229
  -234
  -239
  -246
  -253
  -261
  -269
  -278
  -288
  -299
  -311
  -323
  -336
  -351
  -366
  -381
  -398
  -416
  -435
  -455
  -475
  -498
  -521
  -545
  -571
  -599
  -627
  -657
  -689
  -723
New CAPEX, $m
  -252
  -67
  -80
  -91
  -101
  -112
  -122
  -133
  -144
  -155
  -166
  -177
  -189
  -201
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
  -390
  -410
  -432
  -454
  -478
  -503
Cash from investing activities, $m
  82
  -296
  -314
  -330
  -347
  -365
  -383
  -402
  -422
  -443
  -465
  -488
  -512
  -537
  -565
  -593
  -621
  -652
  -685
  -719
  -755
  -791
  -831
  -872
  -915
  -961
  -1,009
  -1,059
  -1,111
  -1,167
  -1,226
Free cash flow, $m
  860
  -310
  264
  258
  253
  248
  243
  238
  234
  229
  225
  197
  192
  187
  183
  178
  173
  168
  163
  158
  153
  147
  141
  135
  129
  123
  116
  109
  102
  94
  86
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,100
  56
  64
  73
  81
  90
  98
  107
  116
  124
  133
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  297
  313
  330
  347
  365
  384
  404
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -86
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -853
  69
  64
  73
  81
  90
  98
  107
  116
  124
  133
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  297
  313
  330
  347
  365
  384
  404
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  -255
  328
  331
  334
  338
  342
  345
  349
  354
  358
  339
  344
  349
  355
  360
  366
  373
  379
  386
  393
  401
  409
  418
  427
  436
  446
  456
  467
  479
  490
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  382
  -34
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  275
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  287
  285
  283
  281
  279
  277
  276
  274
  273
  248
  247
  246
  245
  244
  243
  243
  242
  241
  240
  239
  239
  238
  237
  237
  236
  235
  235
  234
  233
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  263
  248
  233
  218
  202
  187
  172
  158
  143
  118
  106
  94
  82
  72
  62
  53
  45
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9

Darden Restaurants, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada. As of May 29, 2016, it owned and operated 1,536 restaurants, which included 843 Olive Garden, 481 LongHorn Steakhouse, 54 The Capital Grille, 65 Yard House, 40 Seasons 52, 37 Bahama Breeze, and 16 Eddie V's restaurants. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.9
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 5.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 22.5%
Total Debt to Equity 22.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 17.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin 5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Payout Ratio 71.5%

DRI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DRI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6934 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Darden Restaurants. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Darden Restaurants. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DRI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DRI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Darden Restaurants, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Darden Restaurants.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DRI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DRI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.8% for Darden Restaurants.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Darden Restaurants. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DRI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DRI are equal to 47.2%.

Life of production assets of 14.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Darden Restaurants operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DRI is equal to -9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1952 million for Darden Restaurants - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 124.449 million for Darden Restaurants is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Darden Restaurants at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.0 billion.


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Stock chart of DRI Financial statements of DRI Annual reports of DRI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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