Intrinsic value of Darden Restaurants - DRI

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$85.19

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$85.19

 
Intrinsic value

$20.96

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DRI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,934
  7,073
  7,235
  7,421
  7,630
  7,861
  8,115
  8,392
  8,691
  9,013
  9,359
  9,729
  10,124
  10,544
  10,991
  11,465
  11,968
  12,499
  13,062
  13,656
  14,284
  14,946
  15,644
  16,380
  17,155
  17,972
  18,832
  19,737
  20,690
  21,692
  22,745
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6,689
  6,841
  7,014
  7,209
  7,425
  7,662
  7,920
  8,199
  8,500
  8,823
  9,081
  9,450
  9,842
  10,259
  10,702
  11,171
  11,667
  12,192
  12,747
  13,333
  13,951
  14,602
  15,289
  16,013
  16,776
  17,578
  18,423
  19,312
  20,247
  21,231
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,311
  6,689
  6,841
  7,014
  7,209
  7,425
  7,662
  7,920
  8,199
  8,500
  8,823
  9,081
  9,450
  9,842
  10,259
  10,702
  11,171
  11,667
  12,192
  12,747
  13,333
  13,951
  14,602
  15,289
  16,013
  16,776
  17,578
  18,423
  19,312
  20,247
  21,231
Operating income, $m
  622
  384
  394
  407
  421
  436
  453
  471
  491
  513
  536
  648
  674
  702
  732
  763
  797
  832
  870
  909
  951
  995
  1,042
  1,091
  1,142
  1,197
  1,254
  1,314
  1,377
  1,444
  1,514
EBITDA, $m
  912
  704
  721
  739
  760
  783
  808
  836
  865
  898
  932
  969
  1,008
  1,050
  1,095
  1,142
  1,192
  1,245
  1,301
  1,360
  1,422
  1,488
  1,558
  1,631
  1,708
  1,790
  1,875
  1,965
  2,060
  2,160
  2,265
Interest expense (income), $m
  141
  65
  73
  82
  93
  104
  117
  132
  147
  164
  182
  201
  222
  244
  268
  293
  320
  348
  378
  409
  443
  478
  515
  554
  596
  639
  685
  733
  784
  838
  894
Earnings before tax, $m
  450
  319
  322
  325
  328
  332
  336
  340
  344
  349
  354
  446
  452
  458
  464
  470
  477
  484
  492
  500
  508
  517
  526
  536
  546
  557
  569
  581
  593
  606
  620
Tax expense, $m
  90
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  91
  92
  93
  94
  96
  121
  122
  124
  125
  127
  129
  131
  133
  135
  137
  140
  142
  145
  148
  150
  154
  157
  160
  164
  167
Net income, $m
  375
  233
  235
  237
  240
  242
  245
  248
  251
  255
  258
  326
  330
  334
  339
  343
  348
  354
  359
  365
  371
  377
  384
  391
  399
  407
  415
  424
  433
  443
  453

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  275
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,583
  4,393
  4,494
  4,610
  4,739
  4,883
  5,040
  5,212
  5,398
  5,598
  5,813
  6,043
  6,288
  6,549
  6,827
  7,121
  7,433
  7,764
  8,113
  8,482
  8,872
  9,283
  9,717
  10,174
  10,656
  11,163
  11,697
  12,259
  12,851
  13,473
  14,128
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,308
  4,393
  4,494
  4,610
  4,739
  4,883
  5,040
  5,212
  5,398
  5,598
  5,813
  6,043
  6,288
  6,549
  6,827
  7,121
  7,433
  7,764
  8,113
  8,482
  8,872
  9,283
  9,717
  10,174
  10,656
  11,163
  11,697
  12,259
  12,851
  13,473
  14,128
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
Average production assets, $m
  3,275
  3,338
  3,415
  3,503
  3,601
  3,711
  3,830
  3,961
  4,102
  4,254
  4,417
  4,592
  4,778
  4,977
  5,188
  5,412
  5,649
  5,900
  6,165
  6,446
  6,742
  7,054
  7,384
  7,731
  8,097
  8,483
  8,889
  9,316
  9,765
  10,238
  10,736
Working capital, $m
  -367
  -658
  -673
  -690
  -710
  -731
  -755
  -780
  -808
  -838
  -870
  -905
  -942
  -981
  -1,022
  -1,066
  -1,113
  -1,162
  -1,215
  -1,270
  -1,328
  -1,390
  -1,455
  -1,523
  -1,595
  -1,671
  -1,751
  -1,836
  -1,924
  -2,017
  -2,115
Total debt, $m
  440
  493
  555
  625
  705
  792
  889
  994
  1,107
  1,229
  1,361
  1,501
  1,651
  1,811
  1,980
  2,160
  2,351
  2,553
  2,766
  2,992
  3,230
  3,481
  3,746
  4,025
  4,320
  4,629
  4,956
  5,299
  5,661
  6,041
  6,441
Total liabilities, $m
  2,631
  2,684
  2,746
  2,816
  2,896
  2,983
  3,080
  3,185
  3,298
  3,420
  3,552
  3,692
  3,842
  4,002
  4,171
  4,351
  4,542
  4,744
  4,957
  5,183
  5,421
  5,672
  5,937
  6,216
  6,511
  6,820
  7,147
  7,490
  7,852
  8,232
  8,632
Total equity, $m
  1,952
  1,709
  1,748
  1,793
  1,844
  1,899
  1,961
  2,028
  2,100
  2,178
  2,261
  2,351
  2,446
  2,548
  2,656
  2,770
  2,892
  3,020
  3,156
  3,300
  3,451
  3,611
  3,780
  3,958
  4,145
  4,342
  4,550
  4,769
  4,999
  5,241
  5,496
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,583
  4,393
  4,494
  4,609
  4,740
  4,882
  5,041
  5,213
  5,398
  5,598
  5,813
  6,043
  6,288
  6,550
  6,827
  7,121
  7,434
  7,764
  8,113
  8,483
  8,872
  9,283
  9,717
  10,174
  10,656
  11,162
  11,697
  12,259
  12,851
  13,473
  14,128
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.225
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.420
  0.450
  0.490
  0.530
  0.560
  0.600
  0.640
  0.670
  0.710
  0.750
  0.780
  0.810
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.940
  0.960
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  375
  233
  235
  237
  240
  242
  245
  248
  251
  255
  258
  326
  330
  334
  339
  343
  348
  354
  359
  365
  371
  377
  384
  391
  399
  407
  415
  424
  433
  443
  453
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  290
  321
  326
  332
  339
  347
  355
  364
  374
  385
  396
  321
  334
  348
  363
  378
  395
  413
  431
  451
  471
  493
  516
  541
  566
  593
  622
  651
  683
  716
  751
Funds from operations, $m
  806
  553
  561
  569
  579
  589
  600
  612
  625
  639
  654
  647
  664
  682
  701
  722
  743
  766
  790
  816
  842
  871
  901
  932
  965
  1,000
  1,037
  1,075
  1,116
  1,159
  1,204
Change in working capital, $m
  28
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
Cash from operations, $m
  778
  -16
  576
  587
  598
  610
  624
  638
  653
  669
  687
  681
  701
  721
  743
  766
  790
  816
  842
  871
  901
  932
  966
  1,000
  1,037
  1,076
  1,117
  1,159
  1,204
  1,252
  1,302
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -229
  -233
  -239
  -245
  -252
  -259
  -268
  -277
  -287
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -378
  -395
  -413
  -431
  -451
  -471
  -493
  -516
  -541
  -566
  -593
  -622
  -651
  -683
  -716
New CAPEX, $m
  -252
  -63
  -77
  -88
  -99
  -109
  -120
  -130
  -141
  -152
  -163
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -211
  -224
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -281
  -296
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -366
  -385
  -406
  -427
  -450
  -473
  -497
Cash from investing activities, $m
  82
  -292
  -310
  -327
  -344
  -361
  -379
  -398
  -418
  -439
  -460
  -484
  -507
  -532
  -559
  -587
  -615
  -646
  -678
  -712
  -747
  -784
  -823
  -863
  -907
  -951
  -999
  -1,049
  -1,101
  -1,156
  -1,213
Free cash flow, $m
  860
  -308
  266
  260
  255
  249
  245
  240
  235
  230
  226
  198
  193
  189
  184
  179
  174
  169
  164
  159
  154
  148
  143
  137
  131
  124
  118
  111
  103
  96
  88
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,100
  53
  62
  71
  79
  88
  96
  105
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -86
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -853
  65
  62
  71
  79
  88
  96
  105
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  -255
  327
  331
  334
  337
  341
  345
  349
  353
  357
  338
  343
  348
  354
  359
  365
  371
  378
  385
  392
  400
  408
  416
  425
  434
  444
  454
  465
  476
  488
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  382
  -32
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -255
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  275
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  288
  286
  283
  281
  280
  278
  276
  275
  274
  249
  248
  247
  246
  245
  244
  243
  242
  241
  240
  240
  239
  238
  237
  237
  236
  235
  235
  234
  233
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  264
  249
  233
  218
  203
  188
  173
  158
  143
  118
  106
  94
  82
  72
  62
  53
  45
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9

Darden Restaurants, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada. As of May 29, 2016, it owned and operated 1,536 restaurants, which included 843 Olive Garden, 481 LongHorn Steakhouse, 54 The Capital Grille, 65 Yard House, 40 Seasons 52, 37 Bahama Breeze, and 16 Eddie V's restaurants. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.7
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 22.5%
Total Debt to Equity 22.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 17.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin 5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Payout Ratio 71.5%

DRI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DRI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6934 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Darden Restaurants. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Darden Restaurants. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DRI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DRI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Darden Restaurants, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Darden Restaurants.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DRI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DRI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.8% for Darden Restaurants.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Darden Restaurants. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DRI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DRI are equal to 47.2%.

Life of production assets of 14.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Darden Restaurants operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DRI is equal to -9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1952 million for Darden Restaurants - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 125.373 million for Darden Restaurants is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Darden Restaurants at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Deal Close Announcements: April 24-28   [Apr-28-17 05:20PM  The Wall Street Journal]
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Stock chart of DRI Financial statements of DRI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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