Intrinsic value of Dril-Quip - DRQ

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$48.80

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DRQ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -36.14
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  539
  861
  881
  903
  929
  957
  988
  1,021
  1,058
  1,097
  1,139
  1,184
  1,232
  1,283
  1,338
  1,396
  1,457
  1,521
  1,590
  1,662
  1,739
  1,819
  1,904
  1,994
  2,088
  2,188
  2,292
  2,402
  2,518
  2,640
  2,769
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  564
  577
  592
  608
  627
  647
  669
  693
  719
  746
  776
  807
  841
  876
  914
  954
  997
  1,041
  1,089
  1,139
  1,192
  1,247
  1,306
  1,368
  1,433
  1,501
  1,574
  1,649
  1,729
  1,813
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
Total operating expenses, $m
  426
  608
  622
  638
  655
  676
  697
  720
  745
  773
  801
  832
  865
  900
  937
  976
  1,018
  1,062
  1,108
  1,158
  1,209
  1,264
  1,321
  1,382
  1,446
  1,513
  1,583
  1,658
  1,735
  1,817
  1,903
Operating income, $m
  113
  253
  259
  265
  273
  281
  291
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  367
  384
  401
  419
  439
  459
  481
  505
  529
  555
  583
  612
  643
  675
  709
  745
  783
  823
  865
EBITDA, $m
  145
  283
  290
  297
  306
  315
  326
  337
  350
  364
  378
  394
  411
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  538
  564
  591
  620
  650
  683
  717
  753
  790
  830
  872
  916
  963
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  116
  253
  259
  265
  273
  281
  290
  301
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
  552
  579
  607
  638
  670
  703
  739
  776
  816
  857
Tax expense, $m
  23
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  210
  220
  231
Net income, $m
  93
  185
  189
  194
  199
  205
  212
  219
  228
  236
  246
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  319
  333
  349
  366
  384
  403
  422
  443
  466
  489
  513
  539
  567
  595
  626

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  424
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,461
  1,068
  1,093
  1,121
  1,152
  1,187
  1,226
  1,267
  1,312
  1,361
  1,413
  1,469
  1,529
  1,592
  1,660
  1,731
  1,807
  1,888
  1,973
  2,062
  2,157
  2,257
  2,362
  2,474
  2,591
  2,714
  2,844
  2,981
  3,124
  3,276
  3,435
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,037
  1,068
  1,093
  1,121
  1,152
  1,187
  1,226
  1,267
  1,312
  1,361
  1,413
  1,469
  1,529
  1,592
  1,660
  1,731
  1,807
  1,888
  1,973
  2,062
  2,157
  2,257
  2,362
  2,474
  2,591
  2,714
  2,844
  2,981
  3,124
  3,276
  3,435
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.520
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
Average production assets, $m
  324
  308
  315
  323
  332
  343
  354
  366
  379
  393
  408
  424
  441
  459
  479
  500
  521
  545
  569
  595
  622
  651
  682
  714
  748
  783
  821
  860
  902
  945
  991
Working capital, $m
  956
  430
  440
  452
  464
  478
  494
  511
  529
  549
  570
  592
  616
  642
  669
  698
  728
  761
  795
  831
  869
  910
  952
  997
  1,044
  1,094
  1,146
  1,201
  1,259
  1,320
  1,384
Total debt, $m
  0
  2
  4
  7
  10
  14
  17
  21
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  54
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  110
  119
  130
  141
  152
  165
  178
  191
  205
  220
  236
Total liabilities, $m
  105
  106
  108
  111
  114
  118
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  214
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
Total equity, $m
  1,356
  962
  984
  1,010
  1,038
  1,070
  1,104
  1,142
  1,183
  1,226
  1,273
  1,324
  1,378
  1,435
  1,496
  1,560
  1,628
  1,701
  1,777
  1,858
  1,944
  2,034
  2,129
  2,229
  2,334
  2,445
  2,562
  2,686
  2,815
  2,951
  3,095
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,461
  1,068
  1,092
  1,121
  1,152
  1,188
  1,225
  1,267
  1,313
  1,361
  1,413
  1,469
  1,529
  1,593
  1,660
  1,731
  1,807
  1,888
  1,972
  2,062
  2,158
  2,257
  2,363
  2,474
  2,590
  2,714
  2,844
  2,981
  3,124
  3,275
  3,435
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.899
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  93
  185
  189
  194
  199
  205
  212
  219
  228
  236
  246
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  319
  333
  349
  366
  384
  403
  422
  443
  466
  489
  513
  539
  567
  595
  626
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
Funds from operations, $m
  360
  215
  220
  226
  232
  239
  247
  256
  265
  275
  286
  298
  311
  324
  339
  354
  370
  387
  406
  425
  445
  467
  490
  514
  540
  566
  595
  625
  656
  689
  724
Change in working capital, $m
  113
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Cash from operations, $m
  247
  199
  210
  214
  219
  225
  232
  239
  247
  256
  265
  276
  287
  299
  311
  325
  340
  355
  371
  389
  407
  427
  447
  469
  492
  517
  542
  569
  598
  628
  660
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -158
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
Free cash flow, $m
  89
  164
  172
  175
  178
  182
  187
  192
  198
  204
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  353
  370
  388
  407
  427
  449
  471
  495
  520
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -22
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  42
  165
  175
  178
  181
  186
  190
  196
  202
  209
  216
  225
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  316
  330
  346
  363
  381
  399
  419
  440
  462
  486
  510
  536
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  381
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  527
  153
  152
  153
  154
  156
  158
  161
  165
  169
  174
  180
  186
  192
  200
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  339
  356
  374
  393
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  505
  140
  133
  126
  119
  113
  107
  101
  95
  89
  83
  77
  71
  65
  59
  53
  47
  41
  36
  31
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dril-Quip, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, and services offshore drilling and production equipment for use in deepwater, harsh environment, and severe service applications worldwide. It operates through three segments: Western Hemisphere, Eastern Hemisphere, and Asia-Pacific. The company provides subsea and surface wellheads, subsea and surface production trees, subsea control systems and manifolds, mudline hanger systems, specialty connectors and associated pipes, drilling and production riser systems, liner hangers, wellhead connectors, and diverters. It also offers technical advisory services, and rework and reconditioning services, as well as rental and purchase of running tools for use in the installation and retrieval of its products. The company’s products are used to explore for oil and gas from offshore drilling rigs, such as floating rigs and jack-up rigs; and for drilling and production of oil and gas wells on offshore platforms, tension leg platforms (TLPs), and Spars that are floating cylindrical structures, as well as moored vessels, such as floating production, storage, and offloading monohull moored vessels. It sells its products directly through its sales personnel, independent sales agents, and representatives to integrated, independent, and foreign national oil and gas companies, as well as offshore drilling contractors, and engineering and construction companies. Dril-Quip, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dril-Quip (DRQ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.6
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -36.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Return On Equity 6.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.1%
EBITDA Margin 27.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Operating Margin 21%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Net Profit Margin 17.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Effective Tax Rate 19.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

DRQ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DRQ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $844 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dril-Quip. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dril-Quip. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DRQ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DRQ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dril-Quip, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dril-Quip.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DRQ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $43 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DRQ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dril-Quip.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dril-Quip. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DRQ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DRQ are equal to 35.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dril-Quip operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DRQ is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1324 million for Dril-Quip - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.338 million for Dril-Quip is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dril-Quip at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Dril-Quip, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:DRQ) : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 02:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dril-Quip, Inc. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Dril-Quip beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-27-17 06:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Oil Services: One Pick, Two Pans   [Mar-01-17 02:57PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Dril-Quip misses 4Q revenue forecasts   [06:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Investors Are Paying a Premium for Core Laboratories   [Feb-25-17 01:49PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Stockpickers' Kingdom   [Dec-10-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Is Dril-Quip, Inc. (DRQ) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-27-16 03:36PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Dril-Quip Completes Acquisition Of TIW Corporation   [Nov-11-16 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of DRQ Financial statements of DRQ Annual reports of DRQ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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