Intrinsic value of Descartes Systems Group - DSGX

Previous Close

$26.90

  Intrinsic Value

$5.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

  Value-price divergence*

-26%

Previous close

$26.90

 
Intrinsic value

$5.09

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-26%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DSGX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.27
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  204
  225
  247
  271
  295
  320
  346
  373
  402
  431
  462
  494
  527
  561
  597
  634
  673
  713
  755
  799
  845
  892
  942
  995
  1,049
  1,106
  1,166
  1,228
  1,293
  1,361
  1,433
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  187
  203
  220
  237
  255
  274
  293
  313
  334
  356
  352
  376
  401
  426
  453
  480
  509
  539
  570
  603
  637
  673
  710
  749
  790
  832
  877
  923
  972
  1,023
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Total operating expenses, $m
  173
  188
  204
  221
  238
  256
  275
  294
  314
  335
  357
  353
  377
  402
  427
  454
  481
  511
  541
  572
  605
  639
  675
  712
  751
  792
  834
  879
  925
  974
  1,025
Operating income, $m
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  79
  87
  96
  104
  140
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  349
  368
  387
  408
EBITDA, $m
  65
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
  150
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
  406
  428
  451
  474
  499
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  85
  93
  102
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  233
  246
  259
  274
  289
  304
  321
  338
  355
  374
  394
Tax expense, $m
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
Net income, $m
  24
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  501
  511
  561
  614
  668
  726
  785
  847
  911
  978
  1,047
  1,119
  1,194
  1,272
  1,353
  1,437
  1,525
  1,617
  1,712
  1,812
  1,915
  2,024
  2,137
  2,255
  2,379
  2,508
  2,643
  2,784
  2,932
  3,087
  3,249
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  463
  511
  561
  614
  668
  726
  785
  847
  911
  978
  1,047
  1,119
  1,194
  1,272
  1,353
  1,437
  1,525
  1,617
  1,712
  1,812
  1,915
  2,024
  2,137
  2,255
  2,379
  2,508
  2,643
  2,784
  2,932
  3,087
  3,249
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.441
  0.440
  0.440
  0.441
  0.442
  0.441
  0.441
  0.440
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
Average production assets, $m
  149
  164
  181
  198
  215
  234
  253
  273
  293
  315
  337
  360
  384
  409
  436
  463
  491
  520
  551
  583
  617
  652
  688
  726
  766
  807
  851
  896
  944
  994
  1,046
Working capital, $m
  19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  15
  23
  31
  40
  49
  58
  68
  78
  88
  99
  110
  122
  134
  147
  160
  174
  189
  204
  219
  236
  253
  271
  289
  309
  329
  350
  373
  396
  421
Total liabilities, $m
  70
  77
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  259
  274
  289
  306
  323
  341
  359
  379
  399
  420
  443
  466
  491
Total equity, $m
  431
  434
  476
  521
  568
  616
  666
  719
  773
  830
  889
  950
  1,014
  1,080
  1,149
  1,220
  1,295
  1,373
  1,454
  1,538
  1,626
  1,718
  1,814
  1,915
  2,020
  2,129
  2,244
  2,364
  2,490
  2,621
  2,759
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  501
  511
  561
  614
  669
  726
  785
  847
  911
  978
  1,047
  1,119
  1,194
  1,272
  1,353
  1,437
  1,525
  1,617
  1,713
  1,812
  1,915
  2,024
  2,137
  2,256
  2,379
  2,508
  2,643
  2,784
  2,933
  3,087
  3,250
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
Funds from operations, $m
  83
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  131
  140
  149
  159
  168
  179
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  309
  325
  342
  360
  379
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  348
  367
  386
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -70
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  82
  87
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  14
  11
  9
  6
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  21
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  92
  99
  105
  112
  119
  127
  134
  142
  151
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  59
  21
  21
  21
  20
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  57
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.3
  98.7
  98.3
  98.1
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0

The Descartes Systems Group Inc. provides federated network and logistics technology solutions worldwide. The company’s network-based solutions offer regulatory compliance and customs filing; route and resource planning, execution, and monitoring; inventory and asset visibility; rate and transportation management; and warehouse operation services, as well as connects people to their trading partners and enable business document exchange. Its Logistics Application Suite offers a range of modular, cloud-based, and interoperable Web and wireless logistics management applications. The company’s Logistics Application Suite offers solutions, such as route planning and execution, mobile applications, and telematics and compliance; transportation management solutions comprising carrier compliance and rate management, transportation planning and execution, dock scheduling and yard management, freight audit and settlement, and logistics flow control, as well as visibility, tracking, and performance management; and global logistics network services, such as document management, community, and connectivity services. Its Logistics Application Suite solutions also include customs and regulatory compliance solutions, such as cargo security compliance, declaration and fiscal compliance, customs warehouse management, ocean regulatory services, industry program support services, global trade content, and government solutions; and broker and forwarder enterprise system solutions, such as forwarder back office, and brokerage and declaration services. In addition, the company offers consulting, implementation, and training services; and maintenance and support services. The company serves transportation providers, logistics service providers, and distribution-intensive companies through distributors, alliance partners, and value added resellers. The Descartes Systems Group Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Waterloo, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Descartes Systems Group (DSGX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 85
Price to Sales 10
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28
Price to Free Cash Flow 30
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 20.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.4%
EBITDA Margin 32.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Net Profit Margin 11.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

DSGX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DSGX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $204 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Descartes Systems Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Descartes Systems Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DSGX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DSGX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Descartes Systems Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Descartes Systems Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DSGX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DSGX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Descartes Systems Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Descartes Systems Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DSGX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DSGX are equal to 73%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Descartes Systems Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DSGX is equal to -9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $431 million for Descartes Systems Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 73.832 million for Descartes Systems Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Descartes Systems Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Manuport Logistics Uses Descartes for SOLAS Compliance   [Aug-22-17 06:46AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Descartes Acquires MacroPoint   [Aug-15-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How To Play It: Mobility   [09:45AM  Forbes]
▶ Descartes Acquires PCSTrac Business   [Jun-02-17 06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Descartes Announces Results of Annual Shareholder Meeting   [Jun-01-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Descartes Systems misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-31-17 04:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Descartes Acquires ShipRush   [May-19-17 06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Descartes Systems misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-08-17 05:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Descartes Acquires Datamyne   [Dec-23-16 03:43PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Descartes Acquires Datamyne   [08:10AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Descartes Acquires 4Solutions   [Nov-11-16 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Is New In Fleet Safety?   [Oct-13-16 01:45PM  at Forbes]
▶ Descartes Acquires Appterra   [Oct-12-16 06:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Descartes Announces Results of Annual Shareholder Meeting   [May-27-16 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Software Firm Descartes Raising Funds for More Acquisitions   [May-26-16 05:44PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of DSGX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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