Intrinsic value of DST Systems - DST

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$117.76

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$117.76

 
Intrinsic value

$119.91

 
Up/down potential

+2%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.63
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  1,557
  1,622
  1,692
  1,765
  1,843
  1,926
  2,013
  2,105
  2,202
  2,305
  2,413
  2,527
  2,647
  2,773
  2,906
  3,046
  3,194
  3,349
  3,512
  3,683
  3,863
  4,053
  4,252
  4,461
  4,681
  4,912
  5,155
  5,410
  5,678
  5,959
  6,255
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,229
  1,280
  1,333
  1,390
  1,450
  1,513
  1,580
  1,650
  1,725
  1,803
  1,834
  1,921
  2,013
  2,110
  2,211
  2,318
  2,431
  2,549
  2,673
  2,804
  2,942
  3,086
  3,238
  3,398
  3,565
  3,741
  3,927
  4,121
  4,325
  4,540
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  128
  131
  135
  138
  141
  145
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,304
  1,357
  1,411
  1,468
  1,528
  1,591
  1,658
  1,729
  1,802
  1,881
  1,963
  1,998
  2,089
  2,185
  2,287
  2,392
  2,504
  2,621
  2,744
  2,873
  3,009
  3,152
  3,301
  3,459
  3,624
  3,797
  3,979
  4,170
  4,371
  4,581
  4,802
Operating income, $m
  253
  265
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  377
  400
  424
  450
  529
  558
  588
  620
  654
  690
  728
  768
  810
  854
  901
  950
  1,002
  1,057
  1,115
  1,176
  1,240
  1,307
  1,378
  1,453
EBITDA, $m
  349
  351
  368
  387
  406
  427
  450
  473
  498
  525
  553
  582
  614
  647
  682
  719
  758
  799
  842
  888
  936
  987
  1,040
  1,097
  1,156
  1,219
  1,285
  1,354
  1,427
  1,504
  1,585
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  39
  44
  48
  53
  57
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
Earnings before tax, $m
  279
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  327
  345
  364
  385
  406
  481
  505
  531
  558
  586
  616
  648
  682
  717
  755
  794
  836
  880
  926
  975
  1,027
  1,081
  1,138
  1,198
  1,261
Tax expense, $m
  101
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  130
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  323
  341
Net income, $m
  427
  184
  193
  204
  215
  226
  239
  252
  266
  281
  297
  351
  369
  387
  407
  428
  450
  473
  498
  524
  551
  580
  610
  642
  676
  712
  749
  789
  831
  875
  921

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  196
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,772
  2,686
  2,801
  2,923
  3,052
  3,189
  3,333
  3,485
  3,646
  3,816
  3,995
  4,184
  4,382
  4,592
  4,812
  5,044
  5,288
  5,544
  5,814
  6,098
  6,396
  6,710
  7,039
  7,386
  7,750
  8,132
  8,534
  8,956
  9,400
  9,866
  10,356
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,576
  2,686
  2,801
  2,923
  3,052
  3,189
  3,333
  3,485
  3,646
  3,816
  3,995
  4,184
  4,382
  4,592
  4,812
  5,044
  5,288
  5,544
  5,814
  6,098
  6,396
  6,710
  7,039
  7,386
  7,750
  8,132
  8,534
  8,956
  9,400
  9,866
  10,356
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
Average production assets, $m
  258
  268
  279
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  480
  503
  527
  553
  579
  608
  637
  669
  702
  736
  772
  810
  851
  893
  937
  983
  1,032
Working capital, $m
  27
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
Total debt, $m
  508
  374
  439
  508
  582
  659
  741
  827
  919
  1,015
  1,116
  1,223
  1,336
  1,454
  1,579
  1,711
  1,849
  1,995
  2,148
  2,308
  2,478
  2,655
  2,842
  3,039
  3,245
  3,462
  3,690
  3,929
  4,181
  4,445
  4,723
Total liabilities, $m
  1,657
  1,523
  1,588
  1,657
  1,731
  1,808
  1,890
  1,976
  2,068
  2,164
  2,265
  2,372
  2,485
  2,603
  2,728
  2,860
  2,998
  3,144
  3,297
  3,457
  3,627
  3,804
  3,991
  4,188
  4,394
  4,611
  4,839
  5,078
  5,330
  5,594
  5,872
Total equity, $m
  1,115
  1,163
  1,213
  1,266
  1,322
  1,381
  1,443
  1,509
  1,579
  1,652
  1,730
  1,812
  1,898
  1,988
  2,084
  2,184
  2,290
  2,401
  2,517
  2,640
  2,769
  2,905
  3,048
  3,198
  3,356
  3,521
  3,695
  3,878
  4,070
  4,272
  4,484
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,772
  2,686
  2,801
  2,923
  3,053
  3,189
  3,333
  3,485
  3,647
  3,816
  3,995
  4,184
  4,383
  4,591
  4,812
  5,044
  5,288
  5,545
  5,814
  6,097
  6,396
  6,709
  7,039
  7,386
  7,750
  8,132
  8,534
  8,956
  9,400
  9,866
  10,356
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.456
  0.320
  0.360
  0.400
  0.440
  0.480
  0.510
  0.550
  0.580
  0.610
  0.650
  0.680
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.780
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.357
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  427
  184
  193
  204
  215
  226
  239
  252
  266
  281
  297
  351
  369
  387
  407
  428
  450
  473
  498
  524
  551
  580
  610
  642
  676
  712
  749
  789
  831
  875
  921
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  86
  87
  89
  91
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  103
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
Funds from operations, $m
  83
  270
  281
  293
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  404
  425
  446
  469
  492
  518
  544
  572
  602
  633
  666
  700
  737
  775
  816
  859
  903
  951
  1,001
  1,053
Change in working capital, $m
  -106
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  189
  389
  279
  291
  303
  316
  331
  346
  362
  379
  396
  401
  421
  443
  465
  489
  514
  540
  568
  597
  628
  661
  695
  731
  770
  810
  852
  897
  944
  993
  1,045
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
Cash from investing activities, $m
  296
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
Free cash flow, $m
  485
  346
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  332
  348
  366
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
  495
  521
  548
  577
  607
  639
  673
  708
  746
  785
  827
  871
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -53
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228
  239
  252
  264
  278
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -311
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -332
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228
  239
  252
  264
  278
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  153
  408
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
  439
  461
  484
  509
  536
  563
  592
  623
  656
  690
  726
  763
  803
  845
  890
  936
  985
  1,037
  1,091
  1,148
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -69
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  360
  249
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  458
  481
  506
  533
  560
  590
  621
  653
  688
  724
  762
  802
  845
  889
  936
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  345
  228
  225
  223
  219
  214
  208
  202
  194
  185
  169
  160
  150
  139
  128
  116
  105
  93
  82
  71
  61
  52
  43
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

DST Systems, Inc. provides technology-based information processing and servicing solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and internationally. The company’s Financial Services segment provides investor, investment, advisor/intermediary, and asset distribution services to companies in the financial services industry. This segment provides customers information processing solutions, such as tracking of purchases, redemptions, and exchanges and transfers of shares; maintaining investor identification and ownership records; reconciling cash and share activity; processing dividends; reporting sales; performing tax and other compliance functions; and providing information for printing of investor trade confirmations, statements, and year-end tax forms. The company’s Healthcare Services segment offers healthcare organizations a range of medical and pharmacy solutions for information processing, quality of care, cost management, and payment integrity needs; and healthcare solutions, including claims adjudication, benefit management, care management, business intelligence, and other ancillary services. Its Customer Communications segment provides a range of integrated print, mail, and electronic solutions to companies. The company’s Investments and Other segment owns and operates real estate properties for lease; and has investments in equity securities, private equity investments, and other financial interests. DST Systems, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DST Systems (DST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.8
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 26.8%
Total Debt to Equity 45.6%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Return On Total Capital 26.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Return On Equity 39.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 40%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
EBITDA Margin 25.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.6%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Net Profit Margin 27.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Effective Tax Rate 36.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
Payout Ratio 10.1%

DST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1557 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DST Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DST Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DST Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DST Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $125 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for DST Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DST Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DST are equal to 16.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DST Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DST is equal to 2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1115 million for DST Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.347 million for DST Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DST Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.


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Stock chart of DST Financial statements of DST Annual reports of DST
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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