Intrinsic value of Diana Shipping - DSX

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$3.74

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$3.74

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DSX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -27.85
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  114
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  181
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  295
  310
  324
  340
  357
  374
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  172
  177
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  220
  226
  232
  237
  243
  249
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  296
  304
  311
  319
  327
  335
  344
  352
Total operating expenses, $m
  203
  203
  208
  213
  218
  224
  230
  236
  243
  249
  255
  262
  270
  278
  285
  293
  301
  310
  318
  328
  337
  347
  357
  367
  378
  389
  400
  412
  424
  438
  450
Operating income, $m
  -88
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -93
  -95
  -96
  -98
  -99
  -101
  -102
  -103
  -103
  -104
  -104
  -104
  -104
  -104
  -104
  -103
  -102
  -101
  -100
  -98
  -96
  -94
  -91
  -88
  -85
  -81
  -77
EBITDA, $m
  -6
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  1
  3
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  26
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  67
  76
  85
  96
  107
  119
  131
  145
  160
  175
  192
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Earnings before tax, $m
  -164
  -105
  -108
  -110
  -113
  -115
  -118
  -120
  -122
  -124
  -126
  -128
  -129
  -131
  -133
  -134
  -135
  -137
  -138
  -138
  -139
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -139
  -138
  -137
  -136
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -164
  -105
  -108
  -110
  -113
  -115
  -118
  -120
  -122
  -124
  -126
  -128
  -129
  -131
  -133
  -134
  -135
  -137
  -138
  -138
  -139
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -139
  -138
  -137
  -136

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  98
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,669
  1,593
  1,630
  1,671
  1,718
  1,771
  1,828
  1,890
  1,957
  2,030
  2,108
  2,191
  2,280
  2,375
  2,475
  2,582
  2,695
  2,815
  2,942
  3,076
  3,217
  3,366
  3,523
  3,689
  3,864
  4,048
  4,241
  4,445
  4,660
  4,885
  5,123
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,571
  1,593
  1,630
  1,671
  1,718
  1,771
  1,828
  1,890
  1,957
  2,030
  2,108
  2,191
  2,280
  2,375
  2,475
  2,582
  2,695
  2,815
  2,942
  3,076
  3,217
  3,366
  3,523
  3,689
  3,864
  4,048
  4,241
  4,445
  4,660
  4,885
  5,123
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
  0.073
Average production assets, $m
  1,492
  1,521
  1,556
  1,596
  1,641
  1,691
  1,746
  1,805
  1,869
  1,939
  2,013
  2,093
  2,178
  2,268
  2,364
  2,466
  2,574
  2,689
  2,810
  2,937
  3,072
  3,215
  3,365
  3,523
  3,690
  3,866
  4,051
  4,245
  4,450
  4,666
  4,892
Working capital, $m
  37
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Total debt, $m
  598
  540
  553
  568
  584
  602
  622
  644
  667
  692
  720
  749
  779
  812
  847
  885
  924
  966
  1,010
  1,056
  1,105
  1,157
  1,212
  1,270
  1,331
  1,395
  1,462
  1,533
  1,608
  1,686
  1,769
Total liabilities, $m
  612
  554
  567
  582
  598
  616
  636
  658
  681
  706
  734
  763
  793
  826
  861
  899
  938
  980
  1,024
  1,070
  1,119
  1,171
  1,226
  1,284
  1,345
  1,409
  1,476
  1,547
  1,622
  1,700
  1,783
Total equity, $m
  1,057
  1,039
  1,062
  1,090
  1,120
  1,154
  1,192
  1,232
  1,276
  1,323
  1,374
  1,429
  1,487
  1,548
  1,614
  1,684
  1,757
  1,835
  1,918
  2,005
  2,097
  2,195
  2,297
  2,405
  2,519
  2,639
  2,765
  2,898
  3,038
  3,185
  3,340
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,669
  1,593
  1,629
  1,672
  1,718
  1,770
  1,828
  1,890
  1,957
  2,029
  2,108
  2,192
  2,280
  2,374
  2,475
  2,583
  2,695
  2,815
  2,942
  3,075
  3,216
  3,366
  3,523
  3,689
  3,864
  4,048
  4,241
  4,445
  4,660
  4,885
  5,123
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.566
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.610
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -164
  -105
  -108
  -110
  -113
  -115
  -118
  -120
  -122
  -124
  -126
  -128
  -129
  -131
  -133
  -134
  -135
  -137
  -138
  -138
  -139
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -140
  -139
  -138
  -137
  -136
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  223
  233
  245
  256
  269
Funds from operations, $m
  -25
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -6
  -3
  1
  6
  11
  17
  23
  30
  37
  45
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  106
  119
  133
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -21
  -39
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -3
  1
  6
  11
  16
  23
  29
  36
  44
  53
  62
  72
  82
  93
  106
  119
  132
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -256
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -343
  -361
  -379
  -397
  -418
  -438
  -461
  -483
Free cash flow, $m
  -63
  -151
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -217
  -224
  -231
  -238
  -245
  -252
  -260
  -267
  -275
  -283
  -290
  -299
  -307
  -315
  -324
  -333
  -341
  -351
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  7
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  125
  152
  161
  170
  178
  187
  195
  203
  212
  220
  228
  237
  246
  254
  263
  272
  281
  291
  300
  310
  320
  330
  341
  352
  363
  374
  386
  398
  410
  423
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  132
  165
  176
  186
  196
  207
  217
  226
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  289
  300
  311
  323
  335
  347
  359
  372
  385
  399
  413
  427
  441
  457
  473
  489
  506
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -68
  -144
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -174
  -179
  -184
  -189
  -194
  -198
  -203
  -208
  -213
  -218
  -223
  -228
  -233
  -238
  -243
  -248
  -253
  -258
  -263
  -268
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  161
  -15
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.1
  70.4
  57.9
  47.3
  38.6
  31.3
  25.4
  20.6
  16.6
  13.4
  10.8
  8.8
  7.1
  5.7
  4.7
  3.8
  3.1
  2.5
  2.1
  1.7
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3

Diana Shipping Inc. provides shipping transportation services. The company transports a range of dry bulk cargoes, including iron ore, coal, and grains, as well as steel products, cement, and fertilizers through its ownership of dry bulk vessels worldwide. It operates a fleet of 48 dry bulk vessels comprising 23 Panamax, 4 Kamsarmax, 3 Post-Panamax, 14 Capesize, and 4 Newcastlemax vessels. The company was formerly known as Diana Shipping Investments Corp. and changed its name to Diana Shipping Inc. in February 2005. Diana Shipping Inc. was founded in 1999 and is based in Athens, Greece.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diana Shipping (DSX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.9
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -27.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -67.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 50.4%
Total Debt to Equity 56.6%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Return On Total Capital -9.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Return On Equity -14.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
EBITDA Margin -55.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Operating Margin -78.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -143.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.6%
Net Profit Margin -143.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -3.7%

DSX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DSX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $114 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diana Shipping. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Diana Shipping. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DSX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for DSX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diana Shipping, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diana Shipping.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DSX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 26.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $168 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DSX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Diana Shipping.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diana Shipping. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DSX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DSX are equal to 1308.3%.

Life of production assets of 18.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diana Shipping operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DSX is equal to 3.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1057 million for Diana Shipping - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.82 million for Diana Shipping is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diana Shipping at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Diana Shipping reports 1Q loss   [08:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Management Really to Blame for DryShips Inc.'s Woes?   [May-15-17 04:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Diana Shipping Stock Sank 13% in April   [May-08-17 02:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Rite Aid, Diana Shipping, and Finisar Slumped Today   [Apr-19-17 05:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Diana Shipping Stock Soared 17%   [01:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Shipping Stocks Encounter Volatility   [Mar-16-17 03:39PM  Investopedia]
▶ Why Diana Shipping Inc. Stock Moved Up 37% in January   [Feb-10-17 03:04PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX)   [Dec-14-16 06:16AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ For This Company, Trump's a Gas   [Nov-30-16 02:24PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Shares of Diana Shipping Crash and Burn After Earnings   [Nov-17-16 02:46PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Shipping Stocks Skyrocketed Higher Today   [Nov-15-16 04:02PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ The Donald Trump Shipping Stock Boom   [03:38PM  at Forbes]
Stock chart of DSX Financial statements of DSX Annual reports of DSX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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